Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
17 Sep 2026
Methods for assessment of models |  | 17 Sep 2026

Beyond behavioural models: equifinality and overparameterisation undermine confidence in predictions by soil organic matter models

Marijn Van de Broek and Johan Six

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Short summary
Soil organic matter models are characterised by equifinality, the phenomenon whereby multiple parameter sets yield similar results. This study shows that the number of identifiable parameters that can be optimised together is limited, even under data-rich conditions. As a result, overparameterised models show a large variability when simulating future changes. Optimising only identifiable model parameters is therefore necessary to avoid this hidden uncertainty in soil organic matter models.
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