Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
17 Sep 2026
Methods for assessment of models |  | 17 Sep 2026

Beyond behavioural models: equifinality and overparameterisation undermine confidence in predictions by soil organic matter models

Marijn Van de Broek and Johan Six

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6297', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Apr 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marijn Van de Broek, 27 May 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6297', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Apr 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marijn Van de Broek, 27 May 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Marijn Van de Broek on behalf of the Authors (27 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Jul 2026) by Patricia Lawston-Parker
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Jul 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (21 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish as is (21 Aug 2026) by Patricia Lawston-Parker
AR by Marijn Van de Broek on behalf of the Authors (31 Aug 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Soil organic matter models are characterised by equifinality, the phenomenon whereby multiple parameter sets yield similar results. This study shows that the number of identifiable parameters that can be optimised together is limited, even under data-rich conditions. As a result, overparameterised models show a large variability when simulating future changes. Optimising only identifiable model parameters is therefore necessary to avoid this hidden uncertainty in soil organic matter models.
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