Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8651-2026
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
17 Sep 2026
Methods for assessment of models |  | 17 Sep 2026

Beyond behavioural models: equifinality and overparameterisation undermine confidence in predictions by soil organic matter models

Marijn Van de Broek and Johan Six

Data sets

Codes for Van de Broek and Six (2026) - Geoscientific Model Development Marijn Van de Broek https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22206989

Model code and software

Codes for Van de Broek and Six (2026) - Geoscientific Model Development Marijn Van de Broek https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22206989

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Short summary
Soil organic matter models are characterised by equifinality, the phenomenon whereby multiple parameter sets yield similar results. This study shows that the number of identifiable parameters that can be optimised together is limited, even under data-rich conditions. As a result, overparameterised models show a large variability when simulating future changes. Optimising only identifiable model parameters is therefore necessary to avoid this hidden uncertainty in soil organic matter models.
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