Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4817-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Model evaluation paper
 | 
05 Jun 2026
Model evaluation paper |  | 05 Jun 2026

Why does the signal-to-noise paradox exist in seasonal climate predictability?

Shivamurthy Yashas, Subodh Kumar Saha, Samir Pokhrel, Mahen Konwar, and Verma Utkarsh

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Short summary
This study highlights challenges in estimating seasonal climate predictability using the perfect model framework, which assumes only initial conditions cause error. We show that forecasts can exceed the predicted limit, known as the Potential Predictability Limit (PPL), due to model imperfections in simulating physical processes. A new method is proposed to estimate PPL more accurately and avoid such paradoxes.
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The global hydrological model WaterGAP (GMD/NHESS)