the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Katja Frieler
Stefan Lange
Jacob Schewe
Matthias Mengel
Simon Treu
Christian Otto
Jan Volkholz
Christopher P. O. Reyer
Stefanie Heinicke
Colin Jones
Julia L. Blanchard
Cheryl S. Harrison
Colleen M. Petrik
Tyler D. Eddy
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Camilla Novaglio
Ryan Heneghan
Derek P. Tittensor
Olivier Maury
Matthias Büchner
Thomas Vogt
Dánnell Quesada-Chacón
Kerry Emanuel
Chia-Ying Lee
Suzana J. Camargo
Linn Hamester
Jonas Jägermeyr
Sam Rabin
Jochen Klar
Iliusi D. Vega del Valle
Lisa Novak
Inga J. Sauer
Gitta Lasslop
Sarah Chadburn
Eleanor Burke
Angela Gallego-Sala
Noah Smith
Jinfeng Chang
Stijn Hantson
Chantelle Burton
Anne Gädeke
Simon N. Gosling
Hannes Müller Schmied
Fred Hattermann
Thomas Hickler
Rafael Marcé
Don Pierson
Wim Thiery
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Robert Ladwig
Ana Isabel Ayala
Matthew Forrest
Michel Bechtold
Robert Reinecke
Inge de Graaf
Jed O. Kaplan
Alexander Koch
Matthieu Lengaigne
Rohini Kumar
Maryna Strokal
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 19 May 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 02 Jun 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 23 Jun 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 26 Jun 2025
Dear Juan,
thanks so much for your careful check and the issues you raise. We are currently fixing the raised issues and working on a point-by-point reply, though, this will take some more time.
On behalf of the author team, Martin Park
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103-AC1 -
AC4: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 02 Oct 2025
Dear Juan Antonio Añel,
Thanks for pointing to this. We are very sorry as part of the issues may be due to a miscommunication from our side. Please find our individual responses attached.
Kind regards
Martin and Katja, on behalf of all co-authors
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AC5: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 07 Oct 2025
Dear Juan Antonio,
to support our previous reply please find attached the Statement on the Sustainable Stewardship of the ISIMIP Repository, confirming membership in the TIB DOI Consortium and thus adhering to the DataCite Consortium Agreement.
Thanks and best greetings,
Martin Park
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AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 26 Jun 2025
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jun 2025
This paper describes the setup of the scenario and the climate-related forcings for ISIMIP3b. I truly appreciate the significant efforts made by the authors. The paper is important, interesting, and well written. I have a few comments.
Major comment
L511-525: The five representative ESMs include a hot model (UKESM1-0-LL). It has been suggested that the “hot model” issue of the CMIP6 ensemble can cause overestimation of impact assessments (Hausfather et al 2022, Shiogama et al. 2022a). It depends on the variables and regions whether the hot model overestimates future change projections (Tokarska et al. 2020, Paik et al. 2023, McDonnell et al. 2024, Swaminathan et al. 2024, Li et al. 2024, Shiogama et al. 2022b, 2024, 2025). Although the internal variability component of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern can affect the evaluation of “hot models” (Liang et al. 2024), the relative contributions of forced changes and internal variability to the observed tropical Pacific surface warming pattern are highly uncertain (Watanabe et al. 2024). Therefore, at least, please discuss the possible influence of the “hot model” issue on impact assessments of ISIMIP3b.
Minor comments
L98: ISIMIP3 -> ISIMIP3b?
Table 2 (page 13, pre‐industrial control, 2015soc, 1st priority): Please omit “ensi”.
Figure 4: Can you add the plot of bias correction data of the historical simulation? It would be a good example to show hot bias-correction reduced the bias.
L808: “the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) model” -> the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM)”?
References
Hausfather Z, Marvel K, Schmidt G A, Nielsen-Gammon J W and Zelinka M 2022 Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem Nature 605 26–9
Li C, Sun Q, Wang J, Liang Y, Zwiers F W, Zhang X and Li T 2024 Constraining Projected Changes in Rare Intense Precipitation Events Across Global Land Regions Geophysical Research Letters 51 e2023GL105605
Liang Y, Gillett N P and Monahan A H 2024 Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Nat. Clim. Chang. 14 608–14
McDonnell A, Bauer A M and Proistosescu C 2024 To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles? Earth’s Future 12 e2024EF004844
Paik S, An S-I, Min S-K, King A D and Kim S-K 2023 Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: from global to continental scales Weather and Climate Extremes 42 100613
Tokarska K B, Stolpe M B, Sippel S, Fischer E M, Smith C J, Lehner F and Knutti R 2020 Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models Sci. Adv. 6 eaaz9549
Shiogama H, Hayashi M, Hirota N and Ogura T 2024 Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales SOLA 20 122–9
Shiogama H, Hayashi M, Hirota N, Ogura T, Kim H and Watanabe M 2025 Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes Nat Commun 16 5293
Shiogama H, Takakura J and Takahashi K 2022a Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator Environ. Res. Lett. 17 124028
Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Kim H and Hirota N 2022b Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes Nature 602 612–6
Swaminathan R, Schewe J, Walton J, Zimmermann K, Jones C, Betts R A, Burton C, Jones C D, Mengel M, Reyer C P O, Turner A G and Weigel K 2024 Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Earth’s Future 12 e2024EF004901
Watanabe, M., Kang, S.M., Collins, M. et al. (2024) Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern. Nature 630, 315–324.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103-RC1 - AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Martin Park, 02 Oct 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Martin Park, 02 Oct 2025
Dear authors,
Unfortunately, after checking your manuscript, it has come to our attention that it does not comply with our "Code and Data Policy".
https://www.geoscientific-model-development.net/policies/code_and_data_policy.html
After checking your manuscript and its "Code and data availability" statement several outstanding issues arise.
First, the section states "The MIT data on tropical cyclone tracks with wind and precipitation fields data shall be used for non‐commercial research or academic purposes only. Data can be made available by the ISIMIP team upon written consent by Kerry Emanuel (MIT, email: emanuel@mit.edu)". Dr. Emanuel is a co-author of this submitted manuscript, therefore, it does not make any sense to point out to readers to contact somebody that is co-author to get access to the mentioned data. Therefore, you must publish the mentioned data in one of the repositories acceptable according to our policy, and reply to this comment with its link and permanent identifier. If some kind of law or regulation prevents you of sharing such data, then you need to provide us with evidence of it, and we will study the possibility of granting you an exception to it.
Second, you state "All other input data described are available for participating modelers with a respective account from the DKRZ server." This information is not enough. We can accept the DKRZ servers as hosting service for the repositories containing the mentioned data, but you must provide specific information (links and permanent identifiers) for all of them. I am aware that you communicated internally before that "The described data includes >1000 data sets that are comprised in quite a number of DOIs. Should we cite all these DOIs here again?". If with your question you were referring to these datasets, the answer to your question if you have used them to produce your manuscript, is "yes". A potential solution for this is that you deposit a document containing such information in a permanent repository and you link in the manuscript such repository (with its link and permanent identifier).
Also, you state that "Data will be made publicly available... at the ISIMIP data repository at https://data.isimip.org/". First, we can not accept expressions of future compliance with our policy. The policy of the journal is very clear that compliance with code and data availability must be assured before submitting a manuscript to the journal. Therefore, you must publish all the datasets, as they should have been published before submission, and your manuscript desk rejected instead of accepted for Discussions because of such lack of compliance.
A major problem is that you host your data in the ISIMIP data portal, managed by the PIK. You state that it complies with the policy of the journal, but it does not comply. I have checked the ISIMIP webpage and terms of use. First, we do not have any kind of guarantee that the PIK servers comply with our requirements for long-term archival, usually requested in at least 15-20 years of secured funding to operate. The ISIMIP portal is simply a subdomain of pik-postdam.de, operating under the same IP address than the PIK webpage. Second, you state that data removal has to be approved by the ISIMIP steering committee, but my understanding is that this is basically the list of authors contributing to this manuscript, which actually means that the authors can decide to remove the data, and this is not acceptable according to the policy of the journal. Also, the "ISIMIP data team" is mentioned, but it is not clear at all who are the persons in such committee or how it operates. From the structure published in the ISIMIP web page, it looks like if only one person is involved on it, identified as the "ISIMIP data manager".
In summary, there are many outstanding issues regarding your manuscript and its compliance with the policy of the journal, and the fact that it is under review and Discussions without having properly addressed all of them is irregular. Therefore, please, publish the necessary data in one of the repositories listed in our policy and reply to this comment as soon as possible with a modified 'Code and Data Availability' section for your manuscript, which must include the relevant information (link and handle or DOI) of the new repositories, and which you should include in a potentially reviewed manuscript.
I must note that if you do not fix this problem, we will have to reject your manuscript for publication in our journal.
Juan A. Añel
Geosci. Model Dev. Executive Editor