Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Development and technical paper
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 24 Mar 2026

A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package

Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Aurélien Ribes, Occitane Barbaux, and Philippe Naveau

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Short summary
We describe an improved method and the associated free licensed package ANKIALE (ANalysis of Klimate with bayesian Inference: AppLication to extreme Events) for estimating the statistics of temperature extremes. This method uses climate model simulations (including multiple scenarios simultaneously) to provide a prior of the real-world changes, constrained by the observations. The method and the tool are illustrated via an application to temperature over Europe until 2100, for four scenarios.
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