Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
Development and technical paper
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 24 Mar 2026

A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package

Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Aurélien Ribes, Occitane Barbaux, and Philippe Naveau

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

ANKIALE: ANalysis of Klimate with Bayesian Inference: AppLication to Extreme Events Yoann Robin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15038388

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Short summary
We describe an improved method and the associated free licensed package ANKIALE (ANalysis of Klimate with bayesian Inference: AppLication to extreme Events) for estimating the statistics of temperature extremes. This method uses climate model simulations (including multiple scenarios simultaneously) to provide a prior of the real-world changes, constrained by the observations. The method and the tool are illustrated via an application to temperature over Europe until 2100, for four scenarios.
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