Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2349-2026
Development and technical paper
 | 
24 Mar 2026
Development and technical paper |  | 24 Mar 2026

A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package

Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Aurélien Ribes, Occitane Barbaux, and Philippe Naveau

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1121', Astrid Kerkweg, 18 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Yoann Robin, 25 Jun 2025
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1121', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1121', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Aug 2025
  • RC3: 'Potentially interesting, but very hard to read and possibly overcomplicated', Richard Chandler, 11 Aug 2025
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1121', Anonymous Referee #4, 12 Aug 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Yoann Robin on behalf of the Authors (19 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Nov 2025) by Dan Lu
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Dec 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (23 Dec 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Jan 2026) by Dan Lu
AR by Yoann Robin on behalf of the Authors (16 Feb 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Feb 2026) by Dan Lu
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (25 Feb 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (03 Mar 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (11 Mar 2026) by Dan Lu
AR by Yoann Robin on behalf of the Authors (11 Mar 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 
Download
Short summary
We describe an improved method and the associated free licensed package ANKIALE (ANalysis of Klimate with bayesian Inference: AppLication to extreme Events) for estimating the statistics of temperature extremes. This method uses climate model simulations (including multiple scenarios simultaneously) to provide a prior of the real-world changes, constrained by the observations. The method and the tool are illustrated via an application to temperature over Europe until 2100, for four scenarios.
Share