Articles | Volume 19, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10479-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-10479-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
05 Nov 2026
Development and technical paper |
| 05 Nov 2026
| 05 Nov 2026
cSINGV v1.0: development and evaluation of a 1.5 km coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave modelling system for the Western Maritime Continent
Rajesh Kumar
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
Claudio Sanchez
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Juan Manuel Castillo
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Jian-Guo Li
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Bijoy Thompson
Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine Singapore, 12 Prince George's Pk, Singapore 118411, Singapore
Pratiman Patel
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119222, Singapore
Kaushik Sasmal
Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine Singapore, 12 Prince George's Pk, Singapore 118411, Singapore
Kalli Furtado
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
Hailin Yan
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
Liu Jianyu
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
Hugh Zhang
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
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Ségolène Berthou, Juan Manuel Castillo, Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt, Sana Mahmood, Nefeli Makrygianni, Alex Arnold, Claudio Sanchez, Huw W. Lewis, Dale Partridge, Martin Best, Lucy Bricheno, Helen Davies, Douglas B. Clark, James R. Clark, Jeff A. Polton, Andrew Saulter, Chris J. Short, Jonathan Tinker, Simon Tucker, and Maisie Wright
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 8535–8564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8535-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8535-2026, 2026
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The UK’s new RCS-UKC4 (Regional Coupled Suite – UK Coupled domain version 4) system combines atmosphere, ocean, waves, land, rivers, and biogeochemistry models to improve coastal weather and climate predictions. It offers better storm wave predictions, more accurate river flows, and captures rapid sea-level changes. These advances help predict multiple hazards more reliably, supporting safer communities and helping better planning.
Andressa Andrade Cardoso, Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Ben J. Harvey, and Claudio Sánchez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4757, 2026
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We studied whether high-resolution weather models that simulate thunderstorm clouds directly, rather than estimating their effects, improve forecasts of hazardous Mediterranean storms. Unlike more typical Mediterranean storms, tropical-cyclone-like medicanes became much stronger in the high-resolution simulations. However, the results also depended on how physical processes were represented, showing that more accurate forecasts require both better model design and higher resolution.
Jake Patrick Keller, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Ben J. Harvey, Claudio Sanchez, and Benoît Vannière
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4273, 2026
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Storm Daniel led to severe flooding in Greece and Bulgaria, followed by a catastrophic flood in Derna, Libya. We establish that the event was difficult to predict because small errors in the track of Hurricane Franklin over the Atlantic several days earlier grew into large differences in forecasts over Europe. This study highlights the need for improved operational global weather forecasts and raises awareness of the early warning signs that can lead to high-impact weather.
Piyali Goswami, Ségolène Berthou, Theodore G. Shepherd, Ambrogio Volonté, Sana Mahmood, Juan Manuel Castillo, Anne-Christine Péquignet, Yong-June Park, Mark Worsfold, Regina Rodrigues, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3213–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3213-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3213-2026, 2026
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We examined how a marine heatwave - period of unusually warm ocean conditions - affected flooding and coastal erosion during a storm in northwest Europe. Using a state-of-the-art regional coupled model at km-scale, we compared simulations with and without the marine heatwave to isolate its effects on the storm hazards. Warmer shallow seas intensified rainfall, winds and surface depression of the storm, which integrated into larger increases of surge, wave power and river flows.
Zhangcheng Pei, Sonya L. Fiddes, Marc D. Mallet, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Simon P. Alexander, Alain Protat, Kalli Furtado, and Paul R. Field
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3541, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Climate models misrepresent Southern Ocean clouds, causing warming biases. Using ship data, we updated a weather model to test how sea spray affects cloud ice. Adding realistic ocean particles prevents deep clouds from freezing too fast, correcting sunlight trasmissions. Yet, shallow clouds remain flawed due to missing moisture. Thus, accurate climate predictions require improving both aerosol-cloud interactions and large-scale weather dynamics.
Nefeli Makrygianni, Ségolène Berthou, David L. A. Flack, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Jonathan Beuvier, Juan Manuel Castillo, Emiliano Renzi, Clare O'Neill, Daniel Peláez-Zapata, Frederic Dias, Huw Lewis, and Diego Bruciaferri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3185–3211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3185-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3185-2026, 2026
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Meteotsunamis are rare but dangerous anomalous waves triggered by atmospheric disturbances, they are not currently forecast in Northwest Europe. We analysed the strongest recorded event on June 18, 2022, which reached 1 m amplitude. We showed high-resolution, high-frequency coupled models can represent such events up to three days ahead and help better understand their atmospheric triggers. These models, together with improved observations, can enhance early warnings and coastal safety.
Tao Sun, I-Han Chen, Craig S. Schwartz, Zhiquan Liu, Hugh Zhang, and Dale Barker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2476, 2026
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We implemented an effective way to use weather radar observations in a modern weather analysis and forecasting system. By linking radar information with temperature, moisture, and rainfall processes, the method enables the model to adjust these conditions more consistently. Case studies show clear improvements in the location and intensity of rainfall forecasts over the deep tropics.
Martin R. Willett, Melissa E. Brooks, Andrew Bushell, Paul Earnshaw, Charline Marzin, Samantha Smith, Lorenzo Tomassini, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin Best, John M. Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Catherine Hardacre, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Adrian Lock, Jane P. Mulcahy, James Manners, Alistair Sellar, Peter Sheridan, Warren Tennant, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Vidya Varma, and Michael Whitall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2425, 2026
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Global Atmosphere and Land (GAL) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe the latest version, GAL9. We compare GAL9 with its predecessor and show that it gives improved forecasts of weather and climate. GAL9 has been used for weather forecasts in the UK from early 2026 and it will be used to study the Earth's climate.
Yanyan Cheng, Yaomin Wang, Kalli Furtado, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, Alan D. Ziegler, Song Chen, Matteo Detto, Yuna Mao, Baoxiang Pan, Yoshiko Kosugi, Marryanna Lion, Shoji Noguchi, Satoru Takanashi, Lulie Melling, and Baoqing Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2197–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2197-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2197-2026, 2026
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Tropical land surface processes shape the Earth's climate, but models often lack accuracy in the tropics due to limited data for validation. We improved the Noah with Multi-Parameterizations (Noah-MP) land surface model for the tropics using data from forests in Panama and Malaysia. Calibration enhanced simulations of energy and water fluxes, and revealed key vegetation and soil parameters, as well as future directions for model improvement in tropical regions.
Martin Willett, Melissa Brooks, Andrew Bushell, Paul Earnshaw, Samantha Smith, Lorenzo Tomassini, Martin Best, Ian Boutle, Jennifer Brooke, John M. Edwards, Andrew D. Elvidge, Kalli Furtado, Catherine Hardacre, Andrew J. Hartley, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Adrian Lock, Andy Malcolm, Jane Mulcahy, Eike Müller, Ian A. Renfrew, Heather Rumbold, Gabriel G. Rooney, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Annelize van Niekerk, Andy Wiltshire, and Michael Whitall
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1473–1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1473-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1473-2026, 2026
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Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA8GL9, which includes improvements to the representation of convection and other physical processes. GA8GL9 is used for operational weather prediction in the UK and forms the basis for the next GA and GL configuration.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Yixiong Lu, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, Xiaoge Xin, and Yuyun Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 2175–2189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2175-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-2175-2026, 2026
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Aerosol cooling has been identified as a key driver of the cold biases in CMIP6 (sixth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) models. We demonstrate the critical role of sulfate burden anomaly and the contribution of sulfur removal processes. Faster sulfate deposition directly lowers atmospheric sulfate levels, while enhanced SO₂ deposition reduces the precursor for sulfate formation. The systematically short sulfate lifetime implies that model improvements should focus on SO₂ deposition processes, rather than sulfate deposition.
Dale Partridge, Ségolène Berthou, Rebecca Millington, James R. Clark, Lucy Bricheno, Juan Manuel Castillo, Julia Rulent, and Huw Lewis
Ocean Sci., 22, 345–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-345-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-345-2026, 2026
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Phytoplankton blooms are governed by the availability of light and nutrients, both of which are affected by mixing in the upper layers of the ocean, which is impacted by wave activity on the surface. Most numerical ocean models estimate waves through a parameterisation, here we explicitly resolve waves through a coupled wave model to examine the impact on the strength and timing of phytoplankton blooms, particular during storms when wave activity is elevated.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Claudio Sánchez, Suzanne Gray, Ambrogio Volonté, Florian Pantillon, Ségolène Berthou, and Silvio Davolio
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1429–1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1429-2024, 2024
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Medicane Ianos was a very intense cyclone that led to harmful impacts over Greece. We explore what processes are important for the forecasting of Medicane Ianos, with the use of the Met Office weather model. There was a preceding precipitation event before Ianos’s birth, whose energetics generated a bubble in the tropopause. This bubble created the necessary conditions for Ianos to emerge and strengthen, and the processes are enhanced in simulations with a warmer Mediterranean Sea.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
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Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Emma Howard, Steven Woolnough, Nicholas Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, Cathryn E. Birch, and Adrian J. Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3815–3837, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean simulation setup that will be used to study weather processes in Southeast Asia. The set-up has been used to compare high-resolution simulations, which are able to partially resolve storms, to coarser simulations, which cannot. We compare the model performance at representing variability of rainfall and sea surface temperatures across length scales between the coarse and fine models.
Sonya L. Fiddes, Marc D. Mallet, Alain Protat, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Simon P. Alexander, and Kalli Furtado
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2641–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024, 2024
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In this study we present an evaluation that considers complex, non-linear systems in a holistic manner. This study uses XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to predict the simulated Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the ACCESS model using cloud property biases as predictors. We then used a novel feature importance analysis to quantify the role that each cloud bias plays in predicting the radiative bias, laying the foundation for advanced Earth system model evaluation and development.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Nieves G. Valiente, Andrew Saulter, Breogan Gomez, Christopher Bunney, Jian-Guo Li, Tamzin Palmer, and Christine Pequignet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2515–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, 2023
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We document the Met Office operational global and regional wave models which provide wave forecasts up to 7 d ahead. Our models present coarser resolution offshore to higher resolution near the coastline. The increased resolution led to replication of the extremes but to some overestimation during modal conditions. If currents are included, wave directions and long period swells near the coast are significantly improved. New developments focus on the optimisation of the models with resolution.
Juan Manuel Castillo, Huw W. Lewis, Akhilesh Mishra, Ashis Mitra, Jeff Polton, Ashley Brereton, Andrew Saulter, Alex Arnold, Segolene Berthou, Douglas Clark, Julia Crook, Ananda Das, John Edwards, Xiangbo Feng, Ankur Gupta, Sudheer Joseph, Nicholas Klingaman, Imranali Momin, Christine Pequignet, Claudio Sanchez, Jennifer Saxby, and Maria Valdivieso da Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4193–4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4193-2022, 2022
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A new environmental modelling system has been developed to represent the effect of feedbacks between atmosphere, land, and ocean in the Indian region. Different approaches to simulating tropical cyclones Titli and Fani are demonstrated. It is shown that results are sensitive to the way in which the ocean response to cyclone evolution is captured in the system. Notably, we show how a more rigorous formulation for the near-surface energy budget can be included when air–sea coupling is included.
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Short summary
Weather over Southeast Asia is shaped by complex interactions between the air, ocean, and waves. We developed a high-resolution model that links these processes to better understand and predict rainfall patterns in the region. The results show that ocean–atmosphere interactions improve the representation and prediction of squall events that affect daily life in Singapore and surrounding regions. This work supports more accurate weather forecasting in the region.
Weather over Southeast Asia is shaped by complex interactions between the air, ocean, and waves....
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