Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025
Model evaluation paper
 | 
28 Nov 2025
Model evaluation paper |  | 28 Nov 2025

Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model

Yuqi Huang, Chenghao Wang, Tyler Danzig, Temple R. Lee, and Sandip Pal

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Cited articles

Agarwal, M. and Tandon, A.: Modeling of the urban heat island in the form of mesoscale wind and of its effect on air pollution dispersal, Appl. Math. Model., 34, 2520–2530, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2009.11.016, 2010. 
Angevine, W. M., White, A. B., Senff, C. J., Trainer, M., Banta, R. M., and Ayoub, M. A.: Urban–rural contrasts in mixing height and cloudiness over Nashville in 1999, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2001JD001061, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001061, 2003. 
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Bassett, R., Cai, X., Chapman, L., Heaviside, C., and Thornes, J. E.: The effects of heat advection on UK weather and climate observations in the vicinity of small urbanized areas, Bound.-Layer Meteorol., 165, 181–196, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-017-0263-0, 2017. 
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Short summary
We evaluated a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model in a small, semi-arid U.S. city using dense ground-based measurements. While the forecasts demonstrated good skill for temperature and humidity, they consistently overestimated wind and underestimated nighttime cooling, with inaccurate heat advection predictions. The results highlight the need for improved urban representation in forecast models to better support heat warning systems for small cities.
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