Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
Model evaluation paper
 | 
28 Nov 2025
Model evaluation paper |  | 28 Nov 2025

Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model

Yuqi Huang, Chenghao Wang, Tyler Danzig, Temple R. Lee, and Sandip Pal

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Short summary
We evaluated a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model in a small, semi-arid U.S. city using dense ground-based measurements. While the forecasts demonstrated good skill for temperature and humidity, they consistently overestimated wind and underestimated nighttime cooling, with inaccurate heat advection predictions. The results highlight the need for improved urban representation in forecast models to better support heat warning systems for small cities.
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