Articles | Volume 18, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
07 Nov 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 07 Nov 2025
| 07 Nov 2025
Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations
Gavin A. Schmidt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
Kenneth D. Mankoff
Autonomic Integra LLC, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
Jonathan L. Bamber
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Dept of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Clara Burgard
Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Dustin Carroll
Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, San José State University, Moss Landing, CA, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
David M. Chandler
NORCE Norwegian Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Violaine Coulon
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Benjamin J. Davison
School of Geography and Planning, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Matthew H. England
Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, NSW, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, NSW, Australia
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Qian Li
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32304, USA
Juliana M. Marson
Centre for Earth Observation Science, Dept. of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
Pierre Mathiot
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Clive R. McMahon
IMOS Animal Tagging, Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, 2088, Australia
Twila A. Moon
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Ruth Mottram
Danish Meteorological Institute, Sankt Kjelds Gade 3, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Sophie Nowicki
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Anna Olivé Abelló
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Andrew G. Pauling
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Thomas Rackow
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Bonn, Germany
Damien Ringeisen
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia Climate School, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
now at: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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Ella Gilbert, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Marte G. Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Christiaan Timo van Dalum, Xavier Fettweis, Siddharth Gumber, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Priscilla A. Mooney
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Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
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Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O'Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3129–3155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, 2026
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Robert S. Fausto, Penelope How, Baptiste Vandecrux, Mads C. Lund, Jason E. Box, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Signe B. Andersen, Dirk van As, Rasmus Bahbah, Michele Citterio, William Colgan, Henrik T. Jakobsgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Charlotte Olsen, Falk M. Oraschewski, Anja Rutishauser, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, Ian T. Stevens, Synne H. Svendsen, Kirsty Langley, Alexandra Messerli, Anders A. Bjørk, Jonas K. Andersen, Jakob Abermann, Jakob Steiner, Rainer Prinz, Berhard Hynek, James M. Lea, Stephen Brough, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2829–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2829-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2829-2026, 2026
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Damien Ringeisen, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-Francois Lemieux, and Martin Losch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1845, 2026
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Benjamin J. Davison, Andrew J. Sole, Gregoire Guillet, Douglas I. Benn, Jonathan Kingslake, Jeremy C. Ely, Stephen J. Livingstone, Christopher D. Stringer, Jonathan L. Carrivick, and Anna E. Hogg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1894, 2026
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Some glaciers flow slowly for many years before dramatically accelerating. This is usually a sign of a surge. Theory and observations suggest that surges occur in certain climates. The Antarctic Peninsula has such a climate yet only one surge has been observed there. We present detailed observations of three glaciers that surged recently. We explore how climate change over the past hundred years, and projected climate change up to 2150, has and will affecting surging behaviour in Antarctic.
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Jenni Kontkanen, Irina Sandu, Mario Acosta, Mohammed Hussam Al Turjmam, Ivan Alsina-Ferrer, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Costanza Anerdi, Leo Arriola, Marvin Axness, Marc Batlle Martín, Peter Bauer, Tobias Becker, Daniel Beltrán, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Sebastien Cabaniols, Silvia Caprioli, Miguel Castrillo, Aparna Chandrasekar, Suvarchal Cheedela, Victor Correal, Emanuele Danovaro, Paolo Davini, Jussi Enkovaara, Claudia Frauen, Barbara Früh, Aina Gaya Àvila, Paolo Ghinassi, Rohit Ghosh, Supriyo Ghosh, Iker González, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Ioan Hadade, Christopher Haine, Carl Hartick, Utz-Uwe Haus, Shane Hearne, Heikki Järvinen, Bernat Jiménez, Amal John, Marlin Juchem, Thomas Jung, Jessica Kegel, Matthias Kelbling, Kai Keller, Bruno Kinoshita, Theresa Kiszler, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Joonas Kolstela, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Jonni Lehtiranta, Tuomas Lunttila, Anna Luoma, Pekka Manninen, Alexey Medvedev, Sebastian Milinski, Ali Mohammed, Sebastian Müller, Devaraju Naryanappa, Natalia Nazarova, Sami Niemelä, Bimochan Niraula, Henrik Nortamo, Aleksi Nummelin, Matteo Nurisso, Pablo Ortega, Stella Paronuzzi, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Charles Pelletier, Carlos Peña, Suraj Polade, Himansu Kesari Pradhan, Rommel Quintanilla, Tiago Quintino, Thomas Rackow, Jouni Räisänen, Maqsood Mubarak Rajput, René Redler, Balthasar Reuter, Nuno Rocha Monteiro, Francesc Roura-Adserias, Silva Ruppert, Susan Sayed, Reiner Schnur, Tanvi Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Outi Sievi-Korte, Albert Soret, Christian Steger, Bjorn Stevens, Jan Streffing, Jaleena Sunny, Luiggi Tenorio, Stephan Thober, Ulf Tigerstedt, Oriol Tinto, Juha Tonttila, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Lauri Tuppi, Ginka Van Thielen, Emanuele Vitali, Jost von Hardenberg, Ingo Wagner, Nils Wedi, Jan Wehner, Sven Willner, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Florian Ziemen, and Janos Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2821–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, 2026
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The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of global climate projections. It produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Dorothée Vallot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 20, 1997–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, 2026
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Some recent studies show that the topography at the base of an ice shelf has consequences for its interaction with the ocean. To describe friction velocity in the melt parameterisation, we use a drag coefficient dependent on the distance of the first wet cell to the ice and the basal topography rather than a fixed-tuned parameter. We find that it is less dependent on the choice of vertical resolution and, while providing similar total melt, it gives more weight to highly crevassed areas.
Nils Lehmann, Cesar Aybar, Ando Shah, Marcello Passaro, Jonathan L. Bamber, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-232, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We created a global ocean dataset that brings together satellite measurements, model outputs, and observations into one consistent system. We did this to reduce the time and effort needed to combine different data sources, to improve reproducibility, and enable new analyses. The result makes it easier to study ocean changes, compare methods, and support better understanding of climate processes and extreme events.
Alena Dekhtyareva, Harald Sodemann, Tim Carlsen, Iris Thurnherr, Aina Johannessen, Andrew Seidl, David M. Chandler, Daniele Zannoni, Alexandra Touzeau, Marvin Kähnert, Astrid B. Gjelsvik, Franziska Hellmuth, Britta Schäfer, and Robert O. David
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2573–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2573-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2573-2026, 2026
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During a recent field campaign from 15 to 30 March 2021 at Andenes, Norway, we collected a set of observations that allows to better constrain how clouds and precipitation processes work. Frequent alternations between mid-latitude and arctic weather systems were encountered during the campaign. Our dataset is unique in combining measurements in both vapour and precipitation, aerosols, ice nucleating particles, and was made simultaneously at different elevations at a high latitude location.
Andrew G. Pauling, Inga J. Smith, Torge Martin, Jeff K. Ridley, David P. Stevens, Max Thomas, Rebecca L. Beadling, Christopher Danek, Tore Hattermann, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Ariaan Purich, and Neil C. Swart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-658, 2026
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Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Previous work shows this meltwater drives sea ice growth, but the varying responses have been difficult to compare across models. We ran 11 climate models using the same meltwater input and found a wide range of sea ice responses depending on the background state in each model. Understanding this uncertainty in response is important for future projections of Antarctic sea ice.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
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This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Benoit Urruty, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, 2026
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How the Antarctic ice sheet responds to rapid ocean warming remains uncertain. To explore this, we used a coupled ocean–ice sheet model. We compared simulations under present-day conditions with simulations under strong future warming for 50 years, then returned to today’s climate. The ocean warmed quickly but recovered within decades. In contrast, several ice streams continued to retreat for centuries. This shows that even brief warming could cause lasting ice loss and sea-level rise.
Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, 2026
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Since numerical computing is expensive, climate models must decide between having a high spatial resolution or running for long time periods. Here, we develop a simple neural network to emulate small-scale processes occurring beneath Antarctic ice shelves, which allows sub-shelf melt and ice-ocean interactions to be included in global ocean models which can run for multiple centuries. This neural network will help us to understand how ocean circulation may change in the future.
Hinne F. van der Zant, Olivier Sulpis, Jack J. Middelburg, Matthew P. Humphreys, Raphaël Savelli, Dustin Carroll, Dimitris Menemenlis, Kay Sušelj, and Vincent Le Fouest
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1965-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1965-2026, 2026
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We developed a model to simulate seafloor biogeochemical processes across a wide range of marine environments, from shallow coastal zones to deep-sea sediments. From this model, we derived a set of simple equations that predict how carbon, oxygen, and alkalinity are exchanged between sediments and overlying waters. These equations provide an efficient way to improve how ocean models represent seafloor interactions, which are often missing or overly simplified.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, Bertie W. J. Miles, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, and Robert J. Arthern
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-669, 2026
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An ice-ocean model is used to explore the 20th-century evolution of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica. Several processes are involved as the ice retreats to its present-day state, including ocean melting, the floatation of a historically-grounded ice island, ice crevassing and damage, and changing of ice-flow patterns. Multiple options for steady historical Thwaites Glacier configurations are found, with these options compared against 1940s aerial imagery and evidence from seabed sediments.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Luke Gregor, Alizée Roobaert, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kunal Chakraborty, Ana C. Franco, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Prasanna Kanti Ghoshal, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Debby Ianson, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Apurva Padamnabh Joshi, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Liang Xue, Hyelim Yoo, Jiye Zeng, and Guorong Zhong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 1405–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1405-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1405-2026, 2026
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This review article provides an overview of 68 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products and data product sets, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026
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Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Anastasia Romanou, Paul Lerner, Nancy Kiang, Igor Aleinov, Maxwell Kelley, Roland Miller, Gary Russell, Reto Ruedy, Gavin Schmidt, Maria Hakuba, and Ou Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4839, 2026
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NASA GISS latest Earth System model description and evaluation paper. Major highlights is the capability to include complex interactions of the different components of the Earth System. The model compares well with observations but has shortcomings due to biases that propagate throughout the system between different components.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Francesco Tubiello, Nidal Ramadan, Giulia Conchedda, Reto Ruedy, Michael Hendrickson, Nathan Lenssen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and Gavin Schmidt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-681, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-681, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We use FAO statistics to develop indicators of exposure for 1961–2024. For each region and year, exposure to temperature change of agriculture—rural population, land use area, harvested area, livestock numbers and production value—was defined as the share of regional aggregates over the total. We computed exposure indicators to ΔT > 1.5 °C and ΔT > 2.0 °C. Results help highlight which regions may be most in need of adaptation preparedness.
Raphaël Savelli, Dustin Carroll, Dimitris Menemenlis, Jonathan M. Lauderdale, Clément Bertin, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Manfredi Manizza, A. Anthony Bloom, Karel Castro-Morales, Charles E. Miller, Marc Simard, Kevin W. Bowman, and Hong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 867–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-867-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-867-2026, 2026
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Accounting for carbon and nutrients in rivers is essential for resolving carbon dioxide (CO2) exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. In this study, we add the effect of present-day rivers to a pioneering global-ocean biogeochemistry model. This study highlights the challenge for global ocean numerical models to cover the complexity of the flow of water and carbon across the Land-to-Ocean Aquatic Continuum.
José Abraham Torres Alavez, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Lavergne, Rasmus Pedersen, and Ole Bøssing Christensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6183, 2026
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Coastal polynyas shape sea ice production and polar climate. This study analyses Greenland and Antarctic polynyas using two satellite sea-ice products and HCLIM simulations. The high-resolution CCI dataset improves polynya representation, boundary-layer structure, and near-surface conditions. Results show that integrating high-resolution sea-ice data enhances regional climate modelling and supports better reanalysis systems.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, 2025
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We developed ISEFlow, a new climate emulator model that predicts how melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to future sea levels. Unlike past tools, it uses advanced machine learning to capture complex ice processes, distinguish between different greenhouse gas scenarios, and provide clearer estimates of uncertainty. This makes sea level projections more accurate and reliable, helping scientists and policymakers better plan for climate risks.
Jean-François Lemieux, Mathieu Plante, Nils Hutter, Damien Ringeisen, Bruno Tremblay, François Roy, and Philippe Blain
The Cryosphere, 19, 5639–5654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5639-2025, 2025
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In sea ice models, the flow rule determines how sea ice deforms (opening, closing and shearing) when critical stresses are reached. We implemented in CICE a novel approach to define the flow rule. This is a useful capability as it allows to independently optimize critical stresses and deformations. As opposed to the standard flow rule, the novel approach can lead to a thicker and more active sea ice cover with narrower deformations.
Clément Bertin, Vincent Le Fouest, Dustin Carroll, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Dimitris Menemenlis, Atsushi Matsuoka, Manfredi Manizza, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 22, 6607–6629, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-6607-2025, 2025
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We adjusted a model of the Mackenzie River region to account for the riverine export of organic matter that affects light in the water. We show that such export causes a delay in the phytoplankton growth by two weeks and raises the water surface temperature by 1.7 °C. We found that temperature increase turns this coastal region from a sink of carbon dioxide to an emitter. Our findings suggest that rising exports of organic matter can significantly affect the carbon cycle in Arctic coastal areas.
Fabio Boeira Dias, Matthew H. England, Adele K. Morrison, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 19, 5231–5258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025, 2025
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet melting dominates the sea-level projection uncertainties. Much uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of how ice shelves melt from below. Using a detailed ocean–ice-shelf model, we found that East Antarctic ice shelves experience seasonal melting driven by ocean heat transport variability. In contrast, West Antarctic ice shelves show consistent melting due to a steady supply of warm, deep water, indicating a potentially distinct response due to a warming climate.
Benjamin Reynolds, Sophie Nowicki, and Kristin Poinar
The Cryosphere, 19, 5045–5073, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025, 2025
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Stress in glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves causes crevasses, which are important drivers of retreat and sea level rise. We find that different assumptions found in the literature lead to significantly (up to a factor of 2) different crevasse depths and recommend a calculation based on observed ice flow patterns. We find that other stress calculations likely overpredict ice shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7735–7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, 2025
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The Next Generation of Earth Modeling Systems project (nextGEMS) developed two Earth system models that use horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and finer, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS simulated the Earth System climate over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Katie Lowery, Pierre Dutrieux, Paul R. Holland, Anna E. Hogg, Noel Gourmelen, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 19, 4893–4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4893-2025, 2025
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Using CryoSat-2, we observe monthly changes in the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf surface and derive oceanic melt at its base. Basal channels, kilometres wide, are reflected in the ice surface and captured in our observations. We demonstrate that melt is concentrated on the western walls of channels, that channels play a role in grounding pinning points, and that PIG's main channel geometry is inherited upstream of the grounding line. These results highlight the importance of channels to ice shelf stability.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Yanjun Li, Violaine Coulon, Javier Blasco, Gang Qiao, Qinghua Yang, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 19, 4373–4390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, 2025
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We incorporate ice damage processes into an ice-sheet model and apply the new model to Thwaites Glacier. The upgraded model more accurately captures the observed ice mass loss of Thwaites Glacier over 1990–2020. Our simulations show that ice damage has a notable impact on the ice mass loss, grounding-line retreat, ice velocity, and ice thickness of the Thwaites Glacier basin. This study highlights the necessity for incorporating ice damage into ice-sheet models.
Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie A. Goliber, Renette Jones-Ivey, Justin Quinn, Abani Patra, Kristin Poinar, Sophie Nowicki, Beata M. Csatho, and Jason P. Briner
The Cryosphere, 19, 4327–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, 2025
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Ghub is an online platform that hosts tools, datasets, and educational resources related to ice sheet science. These resources are provided by ice sheet researchers and allow other researchers, students, educators, and interested members of the general public to analyze, visualize, and download datasets that researchers use to study past and present ice sheet behavior. We describe how users can interact with Ghub, showcase some available resources, and describe the future of the Ghub project.
Michael Dominik Tyka, Mengyang Zhou, Elizabeth Yankovsky, and Dustin Carroll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3713, 2025
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Quantification of the kinetics of the induced ocean CO2 uptake following application of marine carbon dioxide removal technologies (mCDR) is crucial for such technologies to gain scientific and social acceptance. Here, we compare two circulation models commonly used for this purpose and find substantial differences in their predictions. We analyze which physical aspects of the models contribute the most to the inter-model discrepancies, and thus require future research.
Jonathan Wiskandt and Nicolas C. Jourdain
The Cryosphere, 19, 3253–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, 2025
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In ocean models, submarine melt of ice shelves is parameterized based on the heat budget at the ice–ocean interface. The heat budget includes the ocean heat transport, the heat conducted into the ice, and the heat available for melting. Here we compare three different approaches to estimating the heat conduction into the ice. We show that the most used approximation is not the most accurate one: it overestimates the melt by up to 25 % compared to the more accurate approximations.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Peter Råback, Adrien Gilbert, Julien Brondex, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Mondher Chekki, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3039, 2025
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Transport processes like rocks carried by ice flow and damage evolution – a proxy for crevasses – are key in ice sheet modeling and should occur without diffusion. Yet, standard numerical methods often blur these features. We explore a particle-based Semi-Lagrangian approach, comparing it to a Discontinuous Galerkin method, and show it can accurately simulate such transport when run at high enough resolution.
Aman KC, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Dominik Fahrner, Twila Moon, and Dustin Carroll
The Cryosphere, 19, 3089–3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3089-2025, 2025
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The sum of ice flowing towards a glacier’s terminus and changes in the position of the terminus over time collectively makes up terminus ablation. We found that terminus ablation has more seasonal variability than previously concluded from flux-based estimates of ice discharge. The findings are of importance in understanding the timing and location of the freshwater input to the fjords and surrounding ocean basins affecting local and regional ecosystems and ocean properties.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2963–2981, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2963-2025, 2025
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Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet on a global scale. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
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The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Thomas Slater, Richard Rigby, and Nicolaj Hansen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3259–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, 2025
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Grounding line discharge is a measure of the amount of ice entering the ocean from an ice mass. This paper describes a dataset of grounding line discharge for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and each of its glaciers. The dataset shows that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge has increased since 1996.
Adam Igneczi and Jonathan Louis Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3203–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3203-2025, 2025
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Freshwater from Arctic land ice loss strongly affects the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. Datasets describing this freshwater discharge have low resolution and do not cover the entire Arctic. We statistically enhanced coarse-resolution climate model data – from approximately 6 km to 250 m – and routed meltwater towards the coastlines to provide high-resolution data covering all Arctic regions. This approach has far fewer computational requirements than running climate models at high resolution.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Sofie Hedetoft, Olivia Bang Brinck, Ruth Mottram, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Steffen Malskær Olsen, Martin Olesen, Nicolaj Hansen, Anders Anker Bjørk, Erik Loebel, Anne Solgaard, and Peter Thejll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, 2025
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Iceberg mélange is the jumble of icebergs in front of some glaciers that calve into the sea. Some studies suggest mélange might help to control the retreat of glaciers. We studied 3 glaciers in NW Greenland where we used GPS sensors and satellites to track ice movement. We found that glaciers push forward and calve all year, including when mélange and landfast sea ice are present, suggesting mélange is not important in supporting glaciers, but may influence the seasonal calving cycle.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
David Storkey, Pierre Mathiot, Michael J. Bell, Dan Copsey, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene T. Hewitt, Jeff Ridley, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, 2025
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The Southern Ocean is a key region of the world ocean in the context of climate change studies. We show that the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled model with intermediate ocean resolution struggles to accurately simulate the Southern Ocean. Increasing the frictional drag that the seafloor exerts on ocean currents and introducing a representation of unresolved ocean eddies both appear to reduce the large-scale biases in this model.
Heather L. Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
The Cryosphere, 19, 1725–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, 2025
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We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed-up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10 %, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of “ice piracy” has not previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, 2025
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We present ISEFlow, a machine learning emulator that predicts how the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to sea level. ISEFlow is fast and accurate, allowing scientists to explore different climate scenarios with greater confidence. ISEFlow distinguishes between high and low emissions scenarios, helping us understand how today’s choices impact future sea levels. ISEFlow supports more reliable climate predictions and helps scientists study the future of ice sheets.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Viola Steidl, Jonathan Louis Bamber, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 19, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-645-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-645-2025, 2025
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Glacier ice thickness is difficult to measure directly but is essential for glacier evolution modelling. In this work, we employ a novel approach combining physical knowledge and data-driven machine learning to estimate the ice thickness of multiple glaciers in Spitsbergen, Barentsøya, and Edgeøya in Svalbard. We identify challenges for the physics-aware machine learning model and opportunities for improving the accuracy and physical consistency that would also apply to other geophysical tasks.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Amélie Bouchat, Damien Ringeisen, Philippe Blain, Stephen Howell, Mike Brady, Alexander S. Komarov, Béatrice Duval, Lekima Yakuden, and Frédérique Labelle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 423–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-423-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-423-2025, 2025
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Sea ice forms a thin boundary between the ocean and the atmosphere, with complex, crust-like dynamics and ever-changing networks of sea ice leads and ridges. Statistics of these dynamical features are often used to evaluate sea ice models. Here, we present a new pan-Arctic dataset of sea ice deformations derived from satellite imagery, from 1 September 2017 to 31 August 2023. We discuss the dataset coverage and some limitations associated with uncertainties in the computed values.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Jana Krause, Dustin Carroll, Juan Höfer, Jeremy Donaire, Eric P. Achterberg, Emilio Alarcón, Te Liu, Lorenz Meire, Kechen Zhu, and Mark J. Hopwood
The Cryosphere, 18, 5735–5752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5735-2024, 2024
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Here we analysed calved ice samples from both the Arctic and Antarctic to assess the variability in the composition of iceberg meltwater. Our results suggest that low concentrations of nitrate and phosphate in ice are primarily from the ice matrix, whereas sediment-rich layers impart a low concentration of silica and modest concentrations of iron and manganese. At a global scale, there are very limited differences in the nutrient composition of ice.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
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Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Mai Winstrup, Heidi Ranndal, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Robert S. Fausto, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5405–5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, 2024
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Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving. Here we present an annual series (2019–2022) of summer digital elevation models (PRODEMs) for the Greenland Ice Sheet margin, covering all outlet glaciers from the ice sheet. The PRODEMs are based on fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry. With their high spatial and temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will enable detailed studies of the changes in marginal ice sheet elevations.
Twila A. Moon, Benjamin Cohen, Taryn E. Black, Kristin L. Laidre, Harry L. Stern, and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 18, 4845–4872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4845-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4845-2024, 2024
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The complex geomorphology of southeast Greenland (SEG) creates dynamic fjord habitats for top marine predators, featuring glacier-derived floating ice, pack and landfast sea ice, and freshwater flux. We study the physical environment of SEG fjords, focusing on surface ice conditions, to provide a regional characterization that supports biological research. As Arctic warming persists, SEG may serve as a long-term refugium for ice-dependent wildlife due to the persistence of regional ice sheets.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
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We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
David M. Chandler and Petra M. Langebroek
Clim. Past, 20, 2055–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise and global climate change caused by ice melt in Antarctica represent a puzzle of feedbacks between the climate, ocean, and ice sheets over tens to thousands of years. Antarctic Ice Sheet melting is caused mainly by warm deep water from the Southern Ocean. Here, we analyse close relationships between deep water temperatures and global climate over the last 800 000 years. This knowledge can help us to better understand how climate and sea level are likely to change in the future.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
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Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
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We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 2653–2675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024, 2024
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A new ice–ocean model simulates future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. Substantial ice retreat is simulated in all scenarios, with some retreat still occurring even with no future ocean melting. The future of small "pinning points" (islands of ice that contact the seabed) is an important control on this retreat. Ocean melting is crucial in causing these features to go afloat, providing the link by which climate change may affect this sector's sea level contribution.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
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Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Tian Li, Konrad Heidler, Lichao Mou, Ádám Ignéczi, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 919–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-919-2024, 2024
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Our study uses deep learning to produce a new high-resolution calving front dataset for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, containing 124 919 terminus traces. This dataset offers insights into understanding calving mechanisms and can help improve glacier frontal ablation estimates as a component of the integrated mass balance assessment.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Nathan Beech, Thomas Rackow, Tido Semmler, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-529-2024, 2024
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Cost-reducing modeling strategies are applied to high-resolution simulations of the Southern Ocean in a changing climate. They are evaluated with respect to observations and traditional, lower-resolution modeling methods. The simulations effectively reproduce small-scale ocean flows seen in satellite data and are largely consistent with traditional model simulations after 4 °C of warming. Small-scale flows are found to intensify near bathymetric features and to become more variable.
Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to speed up and slow down the phase speed of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO modulation of the QBO does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. We show that the GISS E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2° by 2.5° and its gravity wave sources parameterized interactively.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
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Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Dominik Fahrner, Donald Slater, Aman KC, Claudia Cenedese, David A. Sutherland, Ellyn Enderlin, Femke de Jong, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Michael Wood, Peter Nienow, Sophie Nowicki, and Till Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Marine-terminating glaciers can lose mass through frontal ablation, which comprises submarine and surface melting, and iceberg calving. We estimate frontal ablation for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland by combining existing, satellite derived data and calculating volume change near the glacier front over time. The dataset offers exciting opportunities to study the influence of climate forcings on marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland over multi-decadal timescales.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Jason E. Box, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Nicolas Bayou, William T. Colgan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Robert S. Fausto, Dominik Haas-Artho, Achim Heilig, Derek A. Houtz, Penelope How, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, Nanna B. Karlsson, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Daniel McGrath, Noah P. Molotch, Bianca Perren, Maiken K. Revheim, Anja Rutishauser, Kevin Sampson, Martin Schneebeli, Sandy Starkweather, Simon Steffen, Jeff Weber, Patrick J. Wright, Henry Jay Zwally, and Konrad Steffen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5467–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, 2023
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The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) comprises stations that have been monitoring the weather on the Greenland Ice Sheet for over 30 years. These stations are being replaced by newer ones maintained by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). The historical data were reprocessed to improve their quality, and key information about the weather stations has been compiled. This augmented dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2022).
Pierre Mathiot and Nicolas C. Jourdain
Ocean Sci., 19, 1595–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023, 2023
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How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
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We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
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As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
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Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Damien Ringeisen, Nils Hutter, and Luisa von Albedyll
The Cryosphere, 17, 4047–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4047-2023, 2023
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When sea ice is put into motion by wind and ocean currents, it deforms following narrow lines. Our two datasets at different locations and resolutions show that the intersection angle between these lines is often acute and rarely obtuse. We use the orientation of narrow lines to gain indications about the mechanical properties of sea ice and to constrain how to design sea-ice mechanical models for high-resolution simulation of the Arctic and improve regional predictions of sea-ice motion.
Anja Løkkegaard, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Christian Zdanowicz, Gary D. Clow, Martin P. Lüthi, Samuel H. Doyle, Henrik H. Thomsen, David Fisher, Joel Harper, Andy Aschwanden, Bo M. Vinther, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Harry Zekollari, Toby Meierbachtol, Ian McDowell, Neil Humphrey, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Shfaqat A. Khan, Benjamin Hills, Robert Law, Bryn Hubbard, Poul Christoffersen, Mylène Jacquemart, Julien Seguinot, Robert S. Fausto, and William T. Colgan
The Cryosphere, 17, 3829–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, 2023
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This study presents a database compiling 95 ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps. Ice viscosity and hence ice flow are highly sensitive to ice temperature. To highlight the value of the database in evaluating ice flow simulations, profiles from the Greenland ice sheet are compared to a modeled temperature field. Reoccurring discrepancies between modeled and observed temperatures provide insight on the difficulties faced when simulating ice temperatures.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
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We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
William Colgan, Christopher Shields, Pavel Talalay, Xiaopeng Fan, Austin P. Lines, Joshua Elliott, Harihar Rajaram, Kenneth Mankoff, Morten Jensen, Mira Backes, Yunchen Liu, Xianzhe Wei, Nanna B. Karlsson, Henrik Spanggård, and Allan Ø. Pedersen
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 12, 121–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-121-2023, 2023
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We describe a new drill for glaciers and ice sheets. Instead of drilling down into the ice, via mechanical action, our drill melts into the ice. Our goal is simply to pull a cable of temperature sensors on a one-way trip down to the ice–bed interface. Here, we describe the design and testing of our drill. Under laboratory conditions, our melt-tip drill has an efficiency of ∼ 35 % with a theoretical maximum penetration rate of ∼ 12 m h−1. Under field conditions, our efficiency is just ∼ 15 %.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Eva Friis Møller, Asbjørn Christensen, Janus Larsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Mikael Sejr, Philip Wallhead, and Marie Maar
Ocean Sci., 19, 403–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-403-2023, 2023
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Melt from the Greenland ice sheet and sea ice both influence light and nutrient availability in the Arctic coastal ocean. We use a 3D coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model to evaluate the relative importance of these processes for timing, distribution, and magnitude of phytoplankton production in Disko Bay, west Greenland. Our study indicates that decreasing sea ice and more freshwater discharge can work synergistically and increase primary productivity of the coastal ocean around Greenland.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 17, 1003–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, 2023
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The Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica have the potential to make a significant contribution to future sea-level rise. We used a combination of different satellite measurements to show that the grounding lines have been retreating along the fast-flowing ice streams across these two glaciers. We also found two tide-modulated ocean channels that might open new pathways for the warm ocean water to enter the ice shelf cavity.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
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The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
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The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Sophie Goliber, Taryn Black, Ginny Catania, James M. Lea, Helene Olsen, Daniel Cheng, Suzanne Bevan, Anders Bjørk, Charlie Bunce, Stephen Brough, J. Rachel Carr, Tom Cowton, Alex Gardner, Dominik Fahrner, Emily Hill, Ian Joughin, Niels J. Korsgaard, Adrian Luckman, Twila Moon, Tavi Murray, Andrew Sole, Michael Wood, and Enze Zhang
The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022
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Terminus traces have been used to understand how Greenland's glaciers have changed over time; however, manual digitization is time-intensive, and a lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts. We have compiled a dataset of over 39 000 terminus traces for 278 glaciers for scientific and machine learning applications. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Abigail Smith, Alexandra Jahn, Clara Burgard, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 16, 3235–3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, 2022
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The timing of Arctic sea ice melt each year is an important metric for assessing how sea ice in climate models compares to satellite observations. Here, we utilize a new tool for creating more direct comparisons between climate model projections and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice, such that the melt onset dates are defined the same way. This tool allows us to identify climate model biases more clearly and gain more information about what the satellites are observing.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Sam Royston, Rory J. Bingham, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, 2022
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Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Mimmi Oksman, Anna Bang Kvorning, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen, Kenneth David Mankoff, William Colgan, Thorbjørn Joest Andersen, Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Naja Mikkelsen, and Sofia Ribeiro
The Cryosphere, 16, 2471–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, 2022
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One of the questions facing the cryosphere community today is how increasing runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts marine ecosystems. To address this, long-term data are essential. Here, we present multi-site records of fjord productivity for SW Greenland back to the 19th century. We show a link between historical freshwater runoff and productivity, which is strongest in the inner fjord – influenced by marine-terminating glaciers – where productivity has increased since the late 1990s.
William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Kenneth Mankoff, Mareen Lösing, John Hopper, Keith Louden, Jörg Ebbing, Flemming G. Christiansen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl, Joseph A. MacGregor, Árni Hjartarson, Stefan Bernstein, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sven Fuchs, Juha Hartikainen, Johan Liakka, Robert S. Fausto, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Anders Bjørk, Jens-Ove Naslund, Finn Mørk, Yasmina Martos, Niels Balling, Thomas Funck, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Dorthe Petersen, Ulrik Gregersen, Gregers Dam, Tove Nielsen, Shfaqat A. Khan, and Anja Løkkegaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2209–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, 2022
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We assemble all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database. We use this database of point measurements, in combination with other geophysical datasets, to model geothermal heat flow in and around Greenland. Our geothermal heat flow model is generally cooler than previous models of Greenland, especially in southern Greenland. It does not suggest any high geothermal heat flows resulting from Icelandic plume activity over 50 million years ago.
Stephen J. Chuter, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Jonathan Rougier, Geoffrey Dawson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 1349–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, 2022
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We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.
Benjamin Joseph Davison, Tom Cowton, Andrew Sole, Finlo Cottier, and Pete Nienow
The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important driver of Greenland glacier retreat. Icebergs influence ocean temperature in the vicinity of glaciers, which will affect glacier retreat rates, but the effect of icebergs on water temperature is poorly understood. In this study, we use a model to show that icebergs cause large changes to water properties next to Greenland's glaciers, which could influence ocean-driven glacier retreat around Greenland.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
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We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 535–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, 2022
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Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is important for mass balance calculation, ice sheet stability assessment, and ice sheet model projections. Here we present the first ICESat-2-derived high-resolution grounding zone product of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including three important boundaries. This new data product will provide more comprehensive insights into ice sheet instability, which is valuable for both the cryosphere and sea level science communities.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Fanny Lehmann, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, and Jonathan Bamber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 35–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-35-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-35-2022, 2022
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Many data sources are available to evaluate components of the water cycle (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and terrestrial water storage). Despite this variety, it remains unclear how different combinations of datasets satisfy the conservation of mass. We conducted the most comprehensive analysis of water budget closure on a global scale to date. Our results can serve as a basis to select appropriate datasets for regional hydrological studies.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Nicolaj Hansen, Peter L. Langen, Fredrik Boberg, Rene Forsberg, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Peter Thejll, Baptiste Vandecrux, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 15, 4315–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, 2021
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We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates lies between 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year and 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. To evaluate our models, we compared the modelled snow temperatures and densities to in situ measurements. We also investigated the spatial distribution of the SMB. It is very important to have estimates of the Antarctic SMB because then it is easier to understand global sea level changes.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3819–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, 2021
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The Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) has been measuring climate and ice sheet properties since 2007. Here, we present our data product from weather and ice sheet measurements from a network of automatic weather stations mainly located in the melt area of the ice sheet. Currently the PROMICE automatic weather station network includes 25 instrumented sites in Greenland.
Cited articles
Ackermann, L., Rackow, T., Himstedt, K., Gierz, P., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Adcroft, A., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Bushuk, M., Dufour, C. O., Dunne, J. P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Jansen, M. F., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Langenhorst, A. R., Legg, S., Liang, Z., McHugh, C., Radhakrishnan, A., Reichl, B. G., Rosati, T., Samuels, B. L., Shao, A., Stouffer, R., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Xiang, B., Zadeh, N., and Zhang, R.: The GFDL Global Ocean and Sea Ice Model OM4.0: Model Description and Simulation Features, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 3167–3211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001726, 2019. a
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a
Arora, V. K., Lima, A., and Shrestha, R.: The effect of climate change on the simulated streamflow of six Canadian rivers based on the CanRCM4 regional climate model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025. a
Bakker, P., Clark, P. U., Golledge, N. R., Schmittner, A., and Weber, M. E.: Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge, Nature, 541, 72–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20582, 2016. a
Bamber, J. L., Tedstone, A. J., King, M. D., Howat, I. M., Enderlin, E. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Noel, B.: Land Ice Freshwater Budget of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans: 1. Data, Methods, and Results, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123, 1827–1837, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013605, 2018a. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B., and Wouters, B.: The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 063008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0, 2018b. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach, Earth’s Future, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002772, 2022. a
Barbat, M. M., Rackow, T., Hellmer, H. H., Wesche, C., and Mata, M. M.: Three Years of Near-Coastal Antarctic Iceberg Distribution From a Machine Learning Approach Applied to SAR Imagery, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124, 6658–6672, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015205, 2019. a
Barbi, D., Lohmann, G., Grosfeld, K., and Thoma, M.: Ice sheet dynamics within an earth system model: downscaling, coupling and first results, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2003–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, 2014. a
Barnoud, A., Pfeffer, J., Guérou, A., Frery, M., Siméon, M., Cazenave, A., Chen, J., Llovel, W., Thierry, V., Legeais, J., and Ablain, M.: Contributions of Altimetry and Argo to Non‐Closure of the Global Mean Sea Level Budget Since 2016, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl092824, 2021. a
Beaird, N. L., Straneo, F., and Jenkins, W.: Export of Strongly Diluted Greenland Meltwater From a Major Glacial Fjord, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 4163–4170, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077000, 2018. a
Berdahl, M., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R. A., Urban, N. M., Miller, I., Morgan, H., and Steig, E. J.: Antarctic climate response in Last Interglacial simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024. a
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Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far...
