Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
Model description paper
 | 
14 Aug 2025
Model description paper |  | 14 Aug 2025

SASIEv.1: a framework for seasonal and multi-centennial Arctic sea ice emulation

Sian Megan Chilcott, Malte Meinshausen, and Dirk Notz

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Cited articles

Armour, K. C., Eisenman, I., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., McCusker, K. E., and Bitz, C. M.: The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048739, 2011. a
Balaji, V., Maisonnave, E., Zadeh, N., Lawrence, B. N., Biercamp, J., Fladrich, U., Aloisio, G., Benson, R., Caubel, A., Durachta, J., Foujols, M.-A., Lister, G., Mocavero, S., Underwood, S., and Wright, G.: CPMIP: measurements of real computational performance of Earth system models in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 19–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-19-2017, 2017. a
Bathiany, S., Notz, D., Mauritsen, T., Raedel, G., and Brovkin, V.: On the potential for abrupt Arctic winter sea ice loss, J. Climate, 29, 2703–2719, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1, 2016. a
Bintanja, R. and Linden, E. C. V. D.: The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic, Sci. Rep.-UK, 3, 1556, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01556, 2013. a
Chilcott, S. M., Meinshausen, M., and Notz, D.: Framework Source Code for “SASIEv.1: A framework for seasonal and multi-centennial Arctic sea ice emulation”, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15252962, 2025. a
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Climate models are expensive to run and often underestimate how sensitive Arctic sea ice is to climate change. To address this, we developed a simple model that emulates the response of sea ice to global warming. We find that the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that will avoid a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean are lower than previous estimates of 821 Gt of CO2. Our model also provides insights into the future of winter sea ice, examining a larger ensemble than previously possible.
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