Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 15
Model description paper
 | 
14 Aug 2025
Model description paper |  | 14 Aug 2025

SASIEv.1: a framework for seasonal and multi-centennial Arctic sea ice emulation

Sian Megan Chilcott, Malte Meinshausen, and Dirk Notz

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Short summary
Climate models are expensive to run and often underestimate how sensitive Arctic sea ice is to climate change. To address this, we developed a simple model that emulates the response of sea ice to global warming. We find that the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that will avoid a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean are lower than previous estimates of 821 Gt of CO2. Our model also provides insights into the future of winter sea ice, examining a larger ensemble than previously possible.
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