Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
21 Jan 2025
Model evaluation paper |
| 21 Jan 2025
| 21 Jan 2025
Systematic underestimation of type-specific ecosystem process variability in the Community Land Model v5 over Europe
Christian Poppe Terán
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Bio and Geosciences – Agrosphere (IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Faculty of Georesources and Materials Engineering, RWTH Aachen, 52062 Aachen, Germany
HPSC TerrSys, Geoverbund ABC/J, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Bibi S. Naz
Institute of Bio and Geosciences – Agrosphere (IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, 52428 Jülich, Germany
HPSC TerrSys, Geoverbund ABC/J, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Harry Vereecken
Institute of Bio and Geosciences – Agrosphere (IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, 52428 Jülich, Germany
HPSC TerrSys, Geoverbund ABC/J, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Roland Baatz
Research Platform Data Analysis & Simulation, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Rosie A. Fisher
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, 0349 Oslo, Norway
Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Institute of Bio and Geosciences – Agrosphere (IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, 52428 Jülich, Germany
HPSC TerrSys, Geoverbund ABC/J, 52428 Jülich, Germany
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Jordan Steven Bates, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and François Jonard
Biogeosciences, 23, 7253–7288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7253-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-7253-2026, 2026
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We used drones with thermal, multispectral, and laser sensors to measure crop water use across three growing seasons. Combining temperature with information on both green and structural plant growth improved estimates of crop water use, particularly as crops aged or experienced stress. The approach revealed detailed patterns of reduced water use across fields, supporting earlier identification of crop stress.
Charles Koven, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Spencer K. Liddicoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, Tatiana Ilyina, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Jorg Schwinger, and Lori T. Sentman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5381, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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We use a set of climate models to ask how aspects of climate beyond global mean temperatures would differ if we first emit, and then remove, a given amount of CO2, compared to a case where the CO2 hadn't been emitted. We show that precipitation increases, and that land cools relative to the ocean. Models disagree on many of the finer-scale regional changes, but they do agree that many of the regional changes that occur under positive and then negative emissions also occur under zero emissions.
Felix Pohl, Burkhard Neuwirth, David Steger, Georgios Skiadaresis, Ingo Heinrich, Heye Bogena, Marvin Müsgen-von den Driesch, Boris Thies, Jörg Bendix, Michael Leuchner, Theresa Blume, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, and Anke Hildebrandt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5883, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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From 2018 to 2022, Germany had its most severe multi year drought in over seventy years. To see how forests coped, we measured the yearly growth rings of more than 460 beech, oak, pine and Douglas fir trees across Germany. Growth declined strongly, by 21 to 66 percent, but losses varied greatly, even between neighboring stands under the same weather. Translating drought severity into local growth losses therefore requires considering local growing conditions.
Youri Rothfuss, Samuel Le Gall, Nicolas Brüggemann, Sharmin Jahan, Mathieu Javaux, Julian Klaus, Harry Vereecken, and Dagmar van Dusschoten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 6095–6114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6095-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6095-2026, 2026
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How plants cope with water stress is relevant when studying plant water sources in soil. We associated two techniques for measuring the content in water stable isotopes in the stem of sunflower plants and for locating where they take up water in a non-destructive manner. We highlight the role of stem water as a source of water to transpiration flux.
Nunzio Romano, Harry Vereecken, Heye R. Bogena, Giorgio Cassiani, Matteo Censini, Giovanna Armiento, Marco Proposito, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Eyal Ben Dor, Nicolas Francos, Christian Massari, János Mészáros, Tünde Takáts, Caterina Mazzitelli, Benedetto Sica, Ugo Lazzaro, and Paolo Nasta
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-725, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Understanding how climate and land-use change affect water resources requires observations that connect processes from soils and vegetation to groundwater and streams. The Alento dataset is presented that integrates environmental monitoring with targeted field observations across multiple Critical Zone components and scales. The dataset offers a distinctive resource for studying water storage and movement, evaluating environmental models, and improving understanding of water-limited regions.
Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Nadine Goris, Norman J. Steinert, Rosie Fisher, and Huiji Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5188, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Without radical changes in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, global warming will likely exceed 2 degrees. This study uses an Earth system model to investigate the physical and biogeochemical responses to stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) to limit global warming. Depending on the deployment location, SAI influences the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which induces long-term spatially heterogeneous projected temperature and other climatic changes.
Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1237–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026, 2026
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We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO2 to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.
Jordan Steven Bates, Carsten Montzka, Rajina Bajracharya, Harry Vereecken, and François Jonard
Biogeosciences, 23, 6179–6210, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6179-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-6179-2026, 2026
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This study compared drone-based laser, multispectral, and thermal sensors for estimating winter wheat biomass. Combining laser-derived crop structure and signal intensity improved predictions compared with crop height or multispectral data alone, while combining multispectral and thermal data with laser-derived features provided additional information during particular growth stages. The results highlight the potential of underutilized laser-derived features for crop biomass monitoring.
Loudi Yap, Jürgen Kusche, Bamidele Oloruntoba, Helena Gerdener, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5023–5047, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5023-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5023-2026, 2026
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Rainfall shifts in West Africa affects agricultural productivity, highlighting how much water is stored in the soil. Soil moisture from 2003 to 2019 was assessed using satellite, model, and in-situ data. The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture dataset best tracked local conditions, while the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-/FO)-based Global Land Water Storage version 2.0 captured regional variability, improving understanding of root-zone water.
Haojin Zhao, Richard Hoffmann, Heye Bogena, Cosimo Brogi, Alexandre Belleflamme, Klaus Görgen, Johannes Keller, Lukas Strebel, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4630, 2026
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Farmers need timely information on how much water is available in the soil, especially as drought and weather variability increase. We developed an automated system that combines field measurements, computer simulations, and multiple weather forecasts to predict soil moisture up to ten days ahead. Applied at a German test site, the system improved agreement with observations by about 20 percent and turned forecasts into simple indicators that can support irrigation and field management.
Matthias Cuntz, Stephan Thober, Anne Verhoef, Yijian Zeng, Aaron Boone, Agnès Ducharne, Sujan Koirala, David M. Lawrence, Philipp de Vrese, Carsten Montzka, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Harry Vereecken, Dani Or, Salma Tafasca, Naoki Mizukami, Rich Ellis, Patrick C. McGuire, and Lukas Gudmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4223, 2026
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Land surface models (LSMs) are essential tools to analyze future climate change. Here we pushed state-of-the-art LSMs out of their comfort zone revealing hidden connections between processes encoded into the models. The LSMs reacted differently due to complex, sometimes counter-intuitive interactions of different water fluxes. We identified surface runoff and soil evaporation as the two main reasons behind model differences, which should be improved by using more mechanistic descriptions.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026
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When humanity stops emitting carbon dioxide, will temperatures keep rising, stabilize, or fall? Our study reveals in most models, temperatures remain nearly stable, but this hides a balance between the warming in response to radiation imbalance, and the cooling due to uptake of carbon in the land and ocean. Understanding this balance helps refine how much more CO2 we can safely emit.
Devavat Chiru Naik, Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1296, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This study evaluates the CLM5 over India to support the development of a national drought monitoring framework. Soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff simulations are assessed against multiple observational datasets using two atmospheric forcing datasets (IMDAA and ERA5). The results highlight the role of atmospheric forcing and irrigation representation in controlling hydrological partitioning and demonstrate CLM5’s ability to reproduce historical drought events across India.
Francois Rineau, Alexander H. Frank, Jannis Groh, Kristof Grosjean, Arnaud Legout, Daniil I. Kolokolov, Michel Mench, Maria Moreno-Druet, Benoît Pollier, Virmantas Povilaitis, Johanna Pausch, Thomas Puetz, Tjalling Rooks, Peter Schröder, Wieslaw Szulc, Beata Rutkowska, Xander Swinnen, Sofie Thijs, Harry Vereecken, Janna V. Veselovskaya, Mwahija Zubery, Renaldas Žydelis, and Evelin Loit
Biogeosciences, 23, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2261-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2261-2026, 2026
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Enhanced weathering can significantly slow climate change by capturing CO2 and converting it into stable bicarbonate. In study, this method removed up to 1.5 tons of carbon per hectare in a single growing season. We had however very little evidence of bicarbonate formation. Our findings show that enhanced weathering facilitated instead carbon accrual via not only carbonate precipitation but also enhanced biogeochemical activities promoting additional carbon storage.
Wenhong Wang, Shiao Feng, Yonggen Zhang, Zhongwang Wei, Jianzhi Dong, Lutz Weihermüller, Cong-Qiang Liu, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 1061–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1061-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1061-2026, 2026
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Current soil moisture data often suffers from gaps or errors. We combined the long-term coverage of ERA5-Land with the high accuracy of SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) satellites to create a corrected global moisture dataset spanning 1950–2025. Validated against 3.8 million ground measurements, our product reduces errors by ~ 25 % in the modern period (2015–2020) and maintains ~ 20 % improvement historically (1960–2015). This reliable, daily 75-year record is essential for monitoring long-term climate trends and droughts.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Susanne Baur, Carl-Freidrich Schleussner, Glen P. Peters, Shivika Mittal, Marit Sandstad, Steffen Kallbekken, Chris Smith, Sabine Fuss, Bas van Ruijven, Rosie A. Fisher, Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Bjørn Samset, Norman J. Steinert, Laurent Terray, and Jan Fuglestvedt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-28, 2026
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Solar Radiation Modification by adding aerosols to the stratosphere could rapidly and temporarily cool the Earth, but this speed creates unprecedented risks. Fast climate responses coupled with political instability create risks of failure to decarbonise, super-rapid climate change, and conflict. Idealized scenarios or conventional modeling tools could lead to systematic ignorance of these risks. We thus introduce a framework outlining what must be represented in future modeling and assessment.
Robert Reinecke, Tanjila Akhter, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 523–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026, 2026
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Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Heye R. Bogena, Frank Herrmann, Andreas Lücke, Thomas Pütz, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6965–6992, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6965-2025, 2025
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The Wüstebach catchment, which is part of the German TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories) network, was partially deforested in 2013 to promote natural forest regrowth. This data paper provides 16 years of hourly concentrations and fluxes of 11 solutes and runoff rates (2010–2024) from two runoff gauging stations, one affected by deforestation and one not, illustrating forest-management effects on solute transport processes at the catchment scale.
Joschka Neumann, Nicolas Brüggemann, Patrick Chaumet, Normen Hermes, Jan Huwer, Peter Kirchner, Werner Lesmeister, Wilhelm August Mertens, Thomas Pütz, Jörg Wolters, Harry Vereecken, and Ghaleb Natour
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 14, 353–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-14-353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-14-353-2025, 2025
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Climate change in combination with a steadily growing world population and a simultaneous decrease in agricultural land is one of the greatest global challenges facing mankind. In this context, Forschungszentrum Jülich established an "agricultural simulator" (AgraSim), which enables research into the effects of climate change on agricultural ecosystems and the optimization of agricultural cultivation and management strategies with the aid of combined experimental and numerical simulation.
Fang Li, Heye Reemt Bogena, Johannes Keller, Bagher Bayat, Rahul Raj, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 6419–6443, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6419-2025, 2025
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We developed a new method to improve hydrological modeling by jointly using soil moisture and groundwater level data from field sensors in a catchment in Germany. By updating the model separately for shallow and deep soil zones, we achieved more accurate predictions of soil water, groundwater depth, and evapotranspiration. Our results show that combining both data types gives more balanced and reliable outcomes than using either alone.
Stefan Poll, Paul Rigor, Slavko Brdar, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Carl Hartick, Marco van Hulten, Ana Gonzalez-Nicolas, Johannes Keller, Daniel Caviedes-Voullieme, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5468, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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This paper presents TSMP2, a new version of an regional Earth system model that allows to simulate and analyze the complex interactions within terrestrial ecosystems from groundwater to atmosphere. TSMP2 links an atmospheric, a land surface model and an hydrological model through an external coupler and is fully open-source. We describe the TSMP2 model system, present the impact of coupling approaches, and outline our development strategy along with technical and performance aspects.
Salar Saeed Dogar, Cosimo Brogi, Dave O'Leary, Ixchel M. Hernández-Ochoa, Marco Donat, Harry Vereecken, and Johan Alexander Huisman
SOIL, 11, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-655-2025, 2025
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Farmers need precise information about their fields to use water, fertilizers, and other resources efficiently. This study combines underground soil data and satellite images to create detailed field maps using advanced machine learning. By testing different ways of processing data, we ensured a balanced and accurate approach. The results help farmers manage their land more effectively, leading to better harvests and more sustainable farming practices.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Roland Baatz, Patrick Davies, Paolo Nasta, and Heye Bogena
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2583–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2583-2025, 2025
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The data-driven approach enhances soil water content measurements by improving the precision of cosmic ray neutron sensors (CRNSs). This study demonstrates a new method to account for dynamics in air pressure, atmospheric humidity, and incoming neutron intensity. Soil water content measured by CRNSs showed reduced errors compared to reference measurements. The findings highlight the need for precise adjustments to better measure soil moisture for agricultural, water, and climate monitoring.
Manuela S. Kaufmann, Anja Klotzsche, Jan van der Kruk, Anke Langen, Harry Vereecken, and Lutz Weihermüller
SOIL, 11, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-11-267-2025, 2025
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To use fertilizers more effectively, non-invasive geophysical methods can be used to understand nutrient distributions in the soil. We utilize, in a long-term field study, geophysical techniques to study soil properties and conditions under different fertilizer treatments. We compared the geophysical response with soil samples and soil sensor data. In particular, electromagnetic induction and electrical resistivity tomography were effective in monitoring changes in nitrate levels over time.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
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We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Roland Baatz, Gohar Ghazaryan, Michael Hagenlocher, Claas Nendel, Andrea Toreti, and Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1379–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1379-2025, 2025
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Our global review of 130 000 peer-reviewed articles reveals that drought forecasting and plant genetics dominate drought research priorities. Using topic modelling, we traced evolving themes from 1901 to 2022, highlighting a shift from ecology to cutting-edge technologies. By applying unsupervised machine learning, we offer insights into how integrated approaches matter, guiding future priorities to strengthen drought resilience and to safeguard water resources.
Paolo Nasta, Günter Blöschl, Heye R. Bogena, Steffen Zacharias, Roland Baatz, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Karsten H. Jensen, Salvatore Manfreda, Laurent Pfister, Ana M. Tarquis, Ilja van Meerveld, Marc Voltz, Yijian Zeng, William Kustas, Xin Li, Harry Vereecken, and Nunzio Romano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 465–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-465-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-465-2025, 2025
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The Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH) initiative has emphasized the need to establish networks of multi-decadal hydrological observatories to tackle catchment-scale challenges on a global scale. This opinion paper provocatively discusses two endmembers of possible future hydrological observatory (HO) networks for a given hypothesized community budget: a comprehensive set of moderately instrumented observatories or, alternatively, a small number of highly instrumented supersites.
Teng Xu, Sinan Xiao, Sebastian Reuschen, Nils Wildt, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Wolfgang Nowak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5375–5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5375-2024, 2024
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We provide a set of benchmarking scenarios for geostatistical inversion, and we encourage the scientific community to use these to compare their newly developed methods. To facilitate transparent, appropriate, and uncertainty-aware comparison of novel methods, we provide some accurate reference solutions, a high-end reference algorithm, and a diverse set of benchmarking metrics, all of which are publicly available. With this, we seek to foster more targeted and transparent progress in the field.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Ying Zhao, Mehdi Rahmati, Harry Vereecken, and Dani Or
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4059–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4059-2024, 2024
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Gao et al. (2023) question the importance of soil in hydrology, sparking debate. We acknowledge some valid points but critique their broad, unsubstantiated views on soil's role. Our response highlights three key areas: (1) the false divide between ecosystem-centric and soil-centric approaches, (2) the vital yet varied impact of soil properties, and (3) the call for a scale-aware framework. We aim to unify these perspectives, enhancing hydrology's comprehensive understanding.
Tobias Karl David Weber, Lutz Weihermüller, Attila Nemes, Michel Bechtold, Aurore Degré, Efstathios Diamantopoulos, Simone Fatichi, Vilim Filipović, Surya Gupta, Tobias L. Hohenbrink, Daniel R. Hirmas, Conrad Jackisch, Quirijn de Jong van Lier, John Koestel, Peter Lehmann, Toby R. Marthews, Budiman Minasny, Holger Pagel, Martine van der Ploeg, Shahab Aldin Shojaeezadeh, Simon Fiil Svane, Brigitta Szabó, Harry Vereecken, Anne Verhoef, Michael Young, Yijian Zeng, Yonggen Zhang, and Sara Bonetti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3391–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3391-2024, 2024
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Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are used to predict parameters of models describing the hydraulic properties of soils. The appropriateness of these predictions critically relies on the nature of the datasets for training the PTFs and the physical comprehensiveness of the models. This roadmap paper is addressed to PTF developers and users and critically reflects the utility and future of PTFs. To this end, we present a manifesto aiming at a paradigm shift in PTF research.
Lukas Strebel, Heye Bogena, Harry Vereecken, Mie Andreasen, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1001–1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1001-2024, 2024
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We present results from using soil water content measurements from 13 European forest sites in a state-of-the-art land surface model. We use data assimilation to perform a combination of observed and modeled soil water content and show the improvements in the representation of soil water content. However, we also look at the impact on evapotranspiration and see no corresponding improvements.
Denise Degen, Daniel Caviedes Voullième, Susanne Buiter, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Harry Vereecken, Ana González-Nicolás, and Florian Wellmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7375–7409, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7375-2023, 2023
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In geosciences, we often use simulations based on physical laws. These simulations can be computationally expensive, which is a problem if simulations must be performed many times (e.g., to add error bounds). We show how a novel machine learning method helps to reduce simulation time. In comparison to other approaches, which typically only look at the output of a simulation, the method considers physical laws in the simulation itself. The method provides reliable results faster than standard.
Junyan Ding, Polly Buotte, Roger Bales, Bradley Christoffersen, Rosie A. Fisher, Michael Goulden, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, Jacquelyn Shuman, Chonggang Xu, and Charles D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 20, 4491–4510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4491-2023, 2023
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We used a vegetation model to investigate how the different combinations of plant rooting depths and the sensitivity of leaves and stems to drying lead to differential responses of a pine forest to drought conditions in California, USA. We found that rooting depths are the strongest control in that ecosystem. Deep roots allow trees to fully utilize the soil water during a normal year but result in prolonged depletion of soil moisture during a severe drought and hence a high tree mortality risk.
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, and Nate McDowell
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6267–6283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023, 2023
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We introduce a plant hydrodynamic model for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES). To better understand this new model system and its functionality in tropical forest ecosystems, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We identified the key parameters that affect the simulated plant hydrodynamics to guide both modeling and field campaign studies.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
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In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
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Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Bibi S. Naz, Wendy Sharples, Yueling Ma, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1617–1639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1617-2023, 2023
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It is challenging to apply a high-resolution integrated land surface and groundwater model over large spatial scales. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of such a model over a pan-European domain at 3 km resolution and perform an extensive evaluation of simulated water states and fluxes by comparing with in situ and satellite data. This study can serve as a benchmark and baseline for future studies of climate change impact projections and for hydrological forecasting.
Cosimo Brogi, Heye Reemt Bogena, Markus Köhli, Johan Alexander Huisman, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Olga Dombrowski
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-451-2022, 2022
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Accurate monitoring of water in soil can improve irrigation efficiency, which is important considering climate change and the growing world population. Cosmic-ray neutrons sensors (CRNSs) are a promising tool in irrigation monitoring due to a larger sensed area and to lower maintenance than other ground-based sensors. Here, we analyse the feasibility of irrigation monitoring with CRNSs and the impact of the irrigated field dimensions, of the variations of water in soil, and of instrument design.
Marius S. A. Lambert, Hui Tang, Kjetil S. Aas, Frode Stordal, Rosie A. Fisher, Yilin Fang, Junyan Ding, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8809–8829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8809-2022, 2022
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In this study, we implement a hardening mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro and evaluate how it impacts plant hydraulics and vegetation growth. Our work shows that the hydraulic modifications prescribed by the hardening scheme are necessary to model realistic vegetation growth in cold climates, in contrast to the default model that simulates almost nonexistent and declining vegetation due to abnormally large water loss through the roots.
Olga Dombrowski, Cosimo Brogi, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Damiano Zanotelli, and Heye Bogena
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5167–5193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5167-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon storage and food production of fruit orchards will be influenced by climate change. However, they lack representation in models that study such processes. We developed and tested a new sub-model, CLM5-FruitTree, that describes growth, biomass distribution, and management practices in orchards. The model satisfactorily predicted yield and exchange of carbon, energy, and water in an apple orchard and can be used to study land surface processes in fruit orchards at different scales.
Jordan Bates, Francois Jonard, Rajina Bajracharya, Harry Vereecken, and Carsten Montzka
AGILE GIScience Ser., 3, 23, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-23-2022, 2022
Wei Qu, Heye Bogena, Christoph Schüth, Harry Vereecken, Zongmei Li, and Stephan Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-131, 2022
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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We applied the global sensitivity analysis LH-OAT to the integrated hydrology model ParFlow-CLM to investigate the sensitivity of the 12 parameters for different scenarios. And we found that the general patterns of the parameter sensitivities were consistent, however, for some parameters a significantly larger span of the sensitivities was observed, especially for the higher slope and in subarctic climatic scenarios.
Nicholas Jarvis, Jannis Groh, Elisabet Lewan, Katharina H. E. Meurer, Walter Durka, Cornelia Baessler, Thomas Pütz, Elvin Rufullayev, and Harry Vereecken
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2277–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2277-2022, 2022
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We apply an eco-hydrological model to data on soil water balance and grassland growth obtained at two sites with contrasting climates. Our results show that the grassland in the drier climate had adapted by developing deeper roots, which maintained water supply to the plants in the face of severe drought. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering such plastic responses of plant traits to environmental stress in the modelling of soil water balance and plant growth under climate change.
Heye Reemt Bogena, Martin Schrön, Jannis Jakobi, Patrizia Ney, Steffen Zacharias, Mie Andreasen, Roland Baatz, David Boorman, Mustafa Berk Duygu, Miguel Angel Eguibar-Galán, Benjamin Fersch, Till Franke, Josie Geris, María González Sanchis, Yann Kerr, Tobias Korf, Zalalem Mengistu, Arnaud Mialon, Paolo Nasta, Jerzy Nitychoruk, Vassilios Pisinaras, Daniel Rasche, Rafael Rosolem, Hami Said, Paul Schattan, Marek Zreda, Stefan Achleitner, Eduardo Albentosa-Hernández, Zuhal Akyürek, Theresa Blume, Antonio del Campo, Davide Canone, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, John G. Evans, Stefano Ferraris, Félix Frances, Davide Gisolo, Andreas Güntner, Frank Herrmann, Joost Iwema, Karsten H. Jensen, Harald Kunstmann, Antonio Lidón, Majken Caroline Looms, Sascha Oswald, Andreas Panagopoulos, Amol Patil, Daniel Power, Corinna Rebmann, Nunzio Romano, Lena Scheiffele, Sonia Seneviratne, Georg Weltin, and Harry Vereecken
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1125–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1125-2022, 2022
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Monitoring of increasingly frequent droughts is a prerequisite for climate adaptation strategies. This data paper presents long-term soil moisture measurements recorded by 66 cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) operated by 24 institutions and distributed across major climate zones in Europe. Data processing followed harmonized protocols and state-of-the-art methods to generate consistent and comparable soil moisture products and to facilitate continental-scale analysis of hydrological extremes.
Lukas Strebel, Heye R. Bogena, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 395–411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-395-2022, 2022
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We present the technical coupling between a land surface model (CLM5) and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). This coupling enables measurement data to update simulated model states and parameters in a statistically optimal way. We demonstrate the viability of the model framework using an application in a forested catchment where the inclusion of soil water measurements significantly improved the simulation quality.
Veronika Forstner, Jannis Groh, Matevz Vremec, Markus Herndl, Harry Vereecken, Horst H. Gerke, Steffen Birk, and Thomas Pütz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6087–6106, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6087-2021, 2021
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Lysimeter-based manipulative and observational experiments were used to identify responses of water fluxes and aboveground biomass (AGB) to climatic change in permanent grassland. Under energy-limited conditions, elevated temperature actual evapotranspiration (ETa) increased, while seepage, dew, and AGB decreased. Elevated CO2 mitigated the effect on ETa. Under water limitation, elevated temperature resulted in reduced ETa, and AGB was negatively correlated with an increasing aridity.
Yafei Huang, Jonas Weis, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-569, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-569, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Trends in agricultural droughts cannot be easily deduced from measurements. Here trends in agricultural droughts over 31 German and Dutch sites were calculated with model simulations and long-term observed meteorological data as input. We found that agricultural droughts are increasing although precipitation hardly decreases. The increase is driven by increase in evapotranspiration. The year 2018 was for half of the sites the year with the most extreme agricultural drought in the last 55 years.
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Short summary
Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water resource availability and climate change mitigation. Land surface models, like the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), simulate these. This study finds that CLM5 and other data sets underestimate the magnitudes of and variability in carbon and water exchanges for the most abundant plant functional types compared to observations. It provides essential insights for further research into these processes.
Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water...
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