Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
10 Mar 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 10 Mar 2025
| 10 Mar 2025
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Yanwei Zhu
School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
HuaFeng Research Lab for Weather Science and Applications, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Aitor Atencia
GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria
Markus Dabernig
GeoSphere Austria, Vienna, Austria
School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
CMA Earth System Modelling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
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Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed...
