Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Development and technical paper
 | 
10 Mar 2025
Development and technical paper |  | 10 Mar 2025

Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application

Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang

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Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
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