Articles | Volume 17, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
25 Sep 2024
Model description paper |
| 25 Sep 2024
| 25 Sep 2024
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Bo G. Gustafsson
Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Martijn Hermans
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Environmental Geochemistry Group, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Christoph Humborg
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Christian Stranne
Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Filippa Fransner, Agneta Fransson, Christoph Humborg, Erik Gustafsson, Letizia Tedesco, Robinson Hordoir, and Jonas Nycander
Biogeosciences, 16, 863–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-863-2019, 2019
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Although rivers carry large amounts of organic material to the oceans, little is known about what fate it meets when it reaches the sea. In this study we are investigating the fate of the carbon in this organic matter by the use of a numerical model in combination with ship measurements from the northern Baltic Sea. Our results suggests that there is substantial remineralization taking place, transforming the organic carbon into CO2, which is released to the atmosphere.
Erik Gustafsson, Mathilde Hagens, Xiaole Sun, Daniel C. Reed, Christoph Humborg, Caroline P. Slomp, and Bo G. Gustafsson
Biogeosciences, 16, 437–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-437-2019, 2019
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This work highlights that iron (Fe) dynamics plays a key role in the release of alkalinity from sediments, as exemplified for the Baltic Sea. It furthermore demonstrates that burial of Fe sulfides should be included in alkalinity budgets of low-oxygen basins. The sedimentary alkalinity generation may undergo large changes depending on both organic matter loads and oxygen conditions. Enhanced release of alkalinity from the seafloor can increase the CO2 storage capacity of seawater.
Erik Gustafsson, Christoph Humborg, Göran Björk, Christian Stranne, Leif G. Anderson, Marc C. Geibel, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Marcus Sundbom, Igor P. Semiletov, Brett F. Thornton, and Bo G. Gustafsson
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-115, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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In this study we quantify key carbon cycling processes on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. A specific aim is to determine the pathways of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) supplied by rivers and coastline erosion – and particularly to what extent degradation of terrestrial OC contributes to air-sea CO2 exchange. We estimate that the shelf is a weak CO2 sink, although this sink is considerably reduced mainly by degradation of eroded OC and to a lesser extent by degradation of riverine OC.
Caroline P. Slomp, Martijn Hermans, Niels A. G. M. van Helmond, Silke Severmann, James McManus, Marit R. van Erk, and Sairah Malkin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-817, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Cable bacteria couple oxidation of sulfide at depth in sediments with reduction of oxygen, nitrate or nitrite near the sediment surface, thereby preventing release of toxic hydrogen sulfide to the overlying water. We show evidence for a diversity of cable bacteria in sediments from hypoxic and anoxic basins along the continental margin of California and Mexico. Cable bacteria activity in this setting is likely periodic and dependent on the supply of organic matter and/or oxygen.
Abigail E. Robinson, Anna Scaini, Francisco J. Peña, Peter A. Hambäck, Christoph Humborg, and Fernando Jaramillo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3248, 2024
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Wetlands are vital for flood control and drought resistance. These benefits are hard to pinpoint because they depend on water storage and movement, which are extremely variable. To address this, we study seasonal patterns of wetland water area using satellite imagery and AI. Out of 43 Swedish wetlands, we identify 6 groups with similar patterns, linking some to flood buffering and others to flood risk. This method can improve wetland management by identifying specific benefits.
Flor Vermassen, Clare Bird, Tirza M. Weitkamp, Kate F. Darling, Hanna Farnelid, Céline Heuzé, Allison Y. Hsiang, Salar Karam, Christian Stranne, Marcus Sundbom, and Helen K. Coxall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1091, 2024
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We provide the first systematic survey of planktonic foraminifera in the high Arctic Ocean. Our results describe the abundance and species composition under summer sea-ice. They indicate that the polar specialist N. pachyderma is the only species present, with subpolar species absent. The dataset will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the state of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the ‘Atlantification’ of the Arctic Ocean.
Julia Muchowski, Martin Jakobsson, Lars Umlauf, Lars Arneborg, Bo Gustafsson, Peter Holtermann, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Ocean Sci., 19, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1809-2023, 2023
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We show observational data of highly increased mixing and vertical salt flux rates in a sparsely sampled region of the northern Baltic Sea. Co-located acoustic observations complement our in situ measurements and visualize turbulent mixing with high spatial resolution. The observed mixing is generally not resolved in numerical models of the area but likely impacts the exchange of water between the adjacent basins as well as nutrient and oxygen conditions in the Bothnian Sea.
K. Mareike Paul, Martijn Hermans, Sami A. Jokinen, Inda Brinkmann, Helena L. Filipsson, and Tom Jilbert
Biogeosciences, 20, 5003–5028, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5003-2023, 2023
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Seawater naturally contains trace metals such as Mo and U, which accumulate under low oxygen conditions on the seafloor. Previous studies have used sediment Mo and U contents as an archive of changing oxygen concentrations in coastal waters. Here we show that in fjords the use of Mo and U for this purpose may be impaired by additional processes. Our findings have implications for the reliable use of Mo and U to reconstruct oxygen changes in fjords.
Johan Nilsson, Eef van Dongen, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, and Christian Stranne
The Cryosphere, 17, 2455–2476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2455-2023, 2023
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We investigate how topographical sills suppress basal glacier melt in Greenlandic fjords. The basal melt drives an exchange flow over the sill, but there is an upper flow limit set by the Atlantic Water features outside the fjord. If this limit is reached, the flow enters a new regime where the melt is suppressed and its sensitivity to the Atlantic Water temperature is reduced.
Eva Ehrnsten, Oleg Pavlovitch Savchuk, and Bo Gustav Gustafsson
Biogeosciences, 19, 3337–3367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, 2022
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We studied the effects of benthic fauna, animals living on or in the seafloor, on the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus using a model of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By eating and excreting, the animals transform a large part of organic matter sinking to the seafloor into inorganic forms, which fuel plankton blooms. Simultaneously, when they move around (bioturbate), phosphorus is bound in the sediments. This reduces nitrogen-fixing plankton blooms and oxygen depletion.
Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022
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The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes.
Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Brendan Reilly, Aage Kristian Olsen Alstrup, Laura Gemery, Anna Golub, Larry A. Mayer, Mathieu Morlighem, Matthias Moros, Ole L. Munk, Johan Nilsson, Christof Pearce, Henrieka Detlef, Christian Stranne, Flor Vermassen, Gabriel West, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4073–4097, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, 2021
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Ryder Glacier is a marine-terminating glacier in north Greenland discharging ice into the Lincoln Sea. Here we use marine sediment cores to reconstruct its retreat and advance behavior through the Holocene. We show that while Sherard Osborn Fjord has a physiography conducive to glacier and ice tongue stability, Ryder still retreated more than 40 km inland from its current position by the Middle Holocene. This highlights the sensitivity of north Greenland's marine glaciers to climate change.
Niels A. G. M. van Helmond, Elizabeth K. Robertson, Daniel J. Conley, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, L. Joëlle Kubeneck, Wytze K. Lenstra, and Caroline P. Slomp
Biogeosciences, 17, 2745–2766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2745-2020, 2020
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Kelly A. Hogan, Martin Jakobsson, Larry Mayer, Brendan T. Reilly, Anne E. Jennings, Joseph S. Stoner, Tove Nielsen, Katrine J. Andresen, Egon Nørmark, Katrien A. Heirman, Elina Kamla, Kevin Jerram, Christian Stranne, and Alan Mix
The Cryosphere, 14, 261–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-261-2020, 2020
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Glacial sediments in fjords hold a key record of environmental and ice dynamic changes during ice retreat. Here we use a comprehensive geophysical survey from the Petermann Fjord system in NW Greenland to map these sediments, identify depositional processes and calculate glacial erosion rates for the retreating palaeo-Petermann ice stream. Ice streaming is the dominant control on glacial erosion rates which vary by an order of magnitude during deglaciation and are in line with modern rates.
Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Christian Stranne, Elizabeth Weidner, Jim Hansson, Richard Gyllencreutz, Christoph Humborg, Tina Elfwing, Alf Norkko, Joanna Norkko, Björn Nilsson, and Arne Sjöström
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1-2020, 2020
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We studied coastal sea floor terraces in parts of the Baltic Sea using various types of sonar data, sediment cores, and video. Terraces (~1 m high, > 100 m long) are widespread in depths < 15 m and are formed in glacial clay. Our study supports an origin from groundwater flow through silty layers, undermining overlying layers when discharged at the sea floor. Submarine groundwater discharge like this may be a significant source of freshwater to the Baltic Sea that needs to be studied further.
Christian Stranne, Matt O'Regan, Martin Jakobsson, Volker Brüchert, and Marcelo Ketzer
Solid Earth, 10, 1541–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1541-2019, 2019
Martin Jakobsson, Christian Stranne, Matt O'Regan, Sarah L. Greenwood, Bo Gustafsson, Christoph Humborg, and Elizabeth Weidner
Ocean Sci., 15, 905–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-905-2019, 2019
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The bottom topography of the Baltic Sea is analysed using the digital depth model from the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet) published in 2018. Analyses include depth distribution vs. area and seafloor depth variation on a kilometre scale. The limits for the Baltic Sea and analysed sub-basins are from HELCOM. EMODnet is compared with the previously most widely used depth model and the area of deep water exchange between the Bothnian Sea and the Northern Baltic Proper.
Filippa Fransner, Agneta Fransson, Christoph Humborg, Erik Gustafsson, Letizia Tedesco, Robinson Hordoir, and Jonas Nycander
Biogeosciences, 16, 863–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-863-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-863-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Although rivers carry large amounts of organic material to the oceans, little is known about what fate it meets when it reaches the sea. In this study we are investigating the fate of the carbon in this organic matter by the use of a numerical model in combination with ship measurements from the northern Baltic Sea. Our results suggests that there is substantial remineralization taking place, transforming the organic carbon into CO2, which is released to the atmosphere.
Erik Gustafsson, Mathilde Hagens, Xiaole Sun, Daniel C. Reed, Christoph Humborg, Caroline P. Slomp, and Bo G. Gustafsson
Biogeosciences, 16, 437–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-437-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work highlights that iron (Fe) dynamics plays a key role in the release of alkalinity from sediments, as exemplified for the Baltic Sea. It furthermore demonstrates that burial of Fe sulfides should be included in alkalinity budgets of low-oxygen basins. The sedimentary alkalinity generation may undergo large changes depending on both organic matter loads and oxygen conditions. Enhanced release of alkalinity from the seafloor can increase the CO2 storage capacity of seawater.
Christian Stranne, Larry Mayer, Martin Jakobsson, Elizabeth Weidner, Kevin Jerram, Thomas C. Weber, Leif G. Anderson, Johan Nilsson, Göran Björk, and Katarina Gårdfeldt
Ocean Sci., 14, 503–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-503-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-503-2018, 2018
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The ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) is an important parameter within several research disciplines, as variations in the MLD influence air–sea CO2 exchange and ocean primary production. A new method is presented in which acoustic mapping of the MLD is done remotely by means of echo sounders. This method allows for observations of high-frequency variability in the MLD, as horizontal and temporal resolutions can be increased by orders of magnitude compared to traditional in situ measurements.
Göran Björk, Martin Jakobsson, Karen Assmann, Leif G. Andersson, Johan Nilsson, Christian Stranne, and Larry Mayer
Ocean Sci., 14, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1-2018, 2018
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This study presents detailed bathymetric data along with hydrographic data at two deep passages across the Lomonosov Ridge in the Arctic Ocean. The southern channel is relatively smooth with a sill depth close to 1700 m. Hydrographic data reveals an eastward flow in the southern part and opposite in the northern part. The northern passage is characterized by a narrow and steep ridge with a sill depth of 1470 m. Here, water exchange appears to occur in well-defined but irregular vertical layers.
Matt O'Regan, Jan Backman, Natalia Barrientos, Thomas M. Cronin, Laura Gemery, Nina Kirchner, Larry A. Mayer, Johan Nilsson, Riko Noormets, Christof Pearce, Igor Semiletov, Christian Stranne, and Martin Jakobsson
Clim. Past, 13, 1269–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1269-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1269-2017, 2017
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Past glacial activity on the East Siberian continental margin is poorly known, partly due to the lack of geomorphological evidence. Here we present geophysical mapping and sediment coring data from the East Siberian shelf and slope revealing the presence of a glacially excavated cross-shelf trough reaching to the continental shelf edge north of the De Long Islands. The data provide direct evidence for extensive glacial activity on the Siberian shelf that predates the Last Glacial Maximum.
Tommaso Tesi, Marc C. Geibel, Christof Pearce, Elena Panova, Jorien E. Vonk, Emma Karlsson, Joan A. Salvado, Martin Kruså, Lisa Bröder, Christoph Humborg, Igor Semiletov, and Örjan Gustafsson
Ocean Sci., 13, 735–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-735-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-735-2017, 2017
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Recent Arctic studies suggest that sea-ice decline and permafrost thawing will affect the phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean. However, in what way the plankton composition will change as the warming proceeds remains elusive. Here we show that the carbon composition of plankton might change as a function of the enhanced terrestrial organic carbon supply and progressive sea-ice thawing.
Martin Jakobsson, Christof Pearce, Thomas M. Cronin, Jan Backman, Leif G. Anderson, Natalia Barrientos, Göran Björk, Helen Coxall, Agatha de Boer, Larry A. Mayer, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Johan Nilsson, Jayne E. Rattray, Christian Stranne, Igor Semiletov, and Matt O'Regan
Clim. Past, 13, 991–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, 2017
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The Arctic and Pacific oceans are connected by the presently ~53 m deep Bering Strait. During the last glacial period when the sea level was lower than today, the Bering Strait was exposed. Humans and animals could then migrate between Asia and North America across the formed land bridge. From analyses of sediment cores and geophysical mapping data from Herald Canyon north of the Bering Strait, we show that the land bridge was flooded about 11 000 years ago.
Johan Nilsson, Martin Jakobsson, Chris Borstad, Nina Kirchner, Göran Björk, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, and Christian Stranne
The Cryosphere, 11, 1745–1765, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1745-2017, 2017
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Recent data suggest that a 1 km thick ice shelf extended over the glacial Arctic Ocean during MIS 6, about 140 000 years ago. Here, we theoretically analyse the development and equilibrium features of such an ice shelf. The ice shelf was effectively dammed by the Fram Strait and the mean ice-shelf thickness was controlled primarily by the horizontally integrated mass balance. Our results can aid in resolving some outstanding questions of the state of the glacial Arctic Ocean.
Clint M. Miller, Gerald R. Dickens, Martin Jakobsson, Carina Johansson, Andrey Koshurnikov, Matt O'Regan, Francesco Muschitiello, Christian Stranne, and Carl-Magnus Mörth
Biogeosciences, 14, 2929–2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2929-2017, 2017
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Continental slopes north of the East Siberian Sea are assumed to hold large amounts of methane. We present pore water chemistry from the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. These are among the first results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that abundant methane, including gas hydrates, do not characterize the East Siberian Sea slope or rise. This contradicts previous modeling and discussions, which due to the lack of data are almost entirely based assumption.
Leif G. Anderson, Göran Björk, Ola Holby, Sara Jutterström, Carl Magnus Mörth, Matt O'Regan, Christof Pearce, Igor Semiletov, Christian Stranne, Tim Stöven, Toste Tanhua, Adam Ulfsbo, and Martin Jakobsson
Ocean Sci., 13, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-349-2017, 2017
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We use data collected in 2014 to show that the outflow of nutrient-rich water occurs much further to the west than has been reported in the past. We suggest that this is due to much less summer sea-ice coverage in the northwestern East Siberian Sea than in the past decades. Further, our data support a more complicated flow pattern in the region where the Mendeleev Ridge reaches the shelf compared to the general cyclonic circulation within the individual basins as suggested historically.
Erik Gustafsson, Christoph Humborg, Göran Björk, Christian Stranne, Leif G. Anderson, Marc C. Geibel, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Marcus Sundbom, Igor P. Semiletov, Brett F. Thornton, and Bo G. Gustafsson
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-115, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we quantify key carbon cycling processes on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. A specific aim is to determine the pathways of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) supplied by rivers and coastline erosion – and particularly to what extent degradation of terrestrial OC contributes to air-sea CO2 exchange. We estimate that the shelf is a weak CO2 sink, although this sink is considerably reduced mainly by degradation of eroded OC and to a lesser extent by degradation of riverine OC.
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
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Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
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The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
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We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
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We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
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In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
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We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
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Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
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A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with key physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for irrigation optimization to deliver co-benefits of ensuring food production, reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
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Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
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We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
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Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
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Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
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We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
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We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
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When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
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We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
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We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
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The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
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We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte Stuecker, Andrea Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, 2024
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The tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, here referred to as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models, but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols, and partly due to systematic model errors. TBIMIP aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
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Short summary
Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a...
