Articles | Volume 17, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
19 Sep 2024
Model evaluation paper |
| 19 Sep 2024
| 19 Sep 2024
Atmospheric-river-induced precipitation in California as simulated by the regionally refined Simple Convective Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Version 0
Peter A. Bogenschutz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Jishi Zhang
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Philip Cameron-Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Related authors
Pratapaditya Ghosh, Xue Zheng, Hassan Beydoun, Peter Bogenschutz, and Yunyan Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3700, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Marine low clouds play a crucial role in cooling Earth by reflecting sunlight, but storm-resolving models struggle to simulate them accurately. Using ship-based observations and machine learning, we identify which parameter combinations best reduce errors across different cloud types. We find that fixes effective for thick stratocumulus clouds do not work equally well for broken cumulus clouds, suggesting that improving these models requires different strategies for different cloud regimes.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Yunyan Zhang, Hsi-Yen Ma, Cheng Tao, and Shaocheng Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3667, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and climate models are often tested using simplified simulations that prescribe exchanges between the land and atmosphere. We developed a method that allows these interactions to evolve naturally and evaluated it using observations from field sites in the United States and Brazil. We found that realistic land-atmosphere interactions are important for reproducing temperature and cloud biases, while many rainfall errors originate within the atmosphere model itself.
Jishi Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Matthew Vincent Signorotti, Hsiang-He Lee, Peter Bogenschutz, Minda Monteagudo, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Robert S. Arthur, Stephen Po-Chedley, Philip Cameron-Smith, and Jean-Paul Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4513–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4513-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4513-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We ran a convection-permitting model with regional mesh refinement (3.25 km and 800 m) to simulate present-day wind and solar capacity factors over California, coupling it to an energy generation model. The high-resolution models captured realistic seasonal and diurnal cycles, with wind markedly better than a 25 km model and solar outperforming a 3 km operational forecast. We highlight the critical role of resolution, modeling assumptions, and data reliability in renewable energy assessment.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosovic, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Lea Raillard, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Étienne Vignon, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1237, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Mark Taylor, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 795–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-795-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-795-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We pushed a global cloud-resolving model to a novel 100 m setup over the San Francisco Bay Area using a regionally refined mesh. The model captured fine-scale air motions over complex terrain and coastal regions at large-eddy scales with comprehensive global modeling configuration, enabled by scale-aware turbulence parameterization. Performance tests demonstrated that graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration make such high-resolution simulations feasible within practical timeframes.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosović, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Naser Mahfouz, Hassan Beydoun, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Noel Keen, Adam C. Varble, Luca Bertagna, Peter Bogenschutz, Andrew Bradley, Matthew W. Christensen, T. Conrad Clevenger, Aaron Donahue, Jerome Fast, James Foucar, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Oksana Guba, Walter Hannah, Benjamin Hillman, Robert Jacob, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Balwinder Singh, Christopher Terai, Hailong Wang, Mingxuan Wu, Kai Zhang, Andrew Gettelman, Mark Taylor, L. Ruby Leung, Peter Caldwell, and Susannah Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15105–15120, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study assesses the aerosol effective radiative forcing in a global cloud-resolving atmosphere model at ultra-high resolution. We demonstrate that global aerosol forcing signal can be robustly reproduced across resolutions when aerosol activation processes are carefully parameterized. Further, we argue that simplified prescribed aerosol schemes will open the door for further process/mechanism studies under controlled conditions.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Maria J. Chinita, Mikael Witte, Marcin J. Kurowski, Joao Teixeira, Kay Suselj, Georgios Matheou, and Peter Bogenschutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1909–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Low clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. In this paper, we introduce the first version of the unified turbulence and shallow convection parameterization named SHOC+MF developed to improve the representation of shallow cumulus clouds in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). Here, we also show promising preliminary results in a single-column model framework for two benchmark cases of shallow cumulus convection.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Takanobu Yamaguchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 335–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-335-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Models that are used to simulate and predict climate often have trouble representing specific cloud types, such as stratocumulus, that are particularly thin in the vertical direction. It has been found that increasing the model resolution can help improve this problem. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that increases the horizontal and vertical resolutions only for areas of the globe that contain stratocumulus, hence reducing the model runtime while providing better results.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
Short summary
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Pratapaditya Ghosh, Xue Zheng, Hassan Beydoun, Peter Bogenschutz, and Yunyan Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3700, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Marine low clouds play a crucial role in cooling Earth by reflecting sunlight, but storm-resolving models struggle to simulate them accurately. Using ship-based observations and machine learning, we identify which parameter combinations best reduce errors across different cloud types. We find that fixes effective for thick stratocumulus clouds do not work equally well for broken cumulus clouds, suggesting that improving these models requires different strategies for different cloud regimes.
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical upper stratosphere has winds that switch between westerly and easterly every six months known as the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). Climate models commonly show an easterly bias in the SAO. We analysed data from many models to test if correcting the biases in winds lower in the stratosphere could improve SAO. We find correcting the lower-level wind biases reduces the SAO easterly bias, though further improvements, such as better representation of atmospheric waves, are still needed.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Yunyan Zhang, Hsi-Yen Ma, Cheng Tao, and Shaocheng Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3667, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and climate models are often tested using simplified simulations that prescribe exchanges between the land and atmosphere. We developed a method that allows these interactions to evolve naturally and evaluated it using observations from field sites in the United States and Brazil. We found that realistic land-atmosphere interactions are important for reproducing temperature and cloud biases, while many rainfall errors originate within the atmosphere model itself.
Kai Huang, Chang-Hyun Park, Seung-Yoon Back, Jorge L. García-Franco, Hera Kim, Pu Lin, Scott Osprey, Jadwiga Richter, Chih-Chieh Chen, Seok-Woo Son, Shigeo Yoden, Yuna Lim, Neal Butchart, James Anstey, Yoshio Kawatani, Martin B. Andrews, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Zhaoyang Chai, Nan Rosenbloom, Qi Tang, Jinbo Xie, Federico Serva, Dong-Chan Hong, Shingo Watanabe, Aleena M. Jaison, Hiroaki Naoe, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3744, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical atmosphere has large-scale wind and rainfall patterns shaping weather worldwide. Winds high above the tropics are thought to influence a major tropical rainfall system, but climate models fail to reproduce this link. We tested 12 climate models after constraining their high-altitude winds to match observations. Although the winds then matched, the models failed to capture the tropical response, as they did not realistically simulate it. Improving this is key to better prediction.
Hyun-Kyu Lee, James A. Anstey, Hye-Yeong Chun, Shingo Watanabe, Francois Lott, Zhaoyang Chai, Yixiong Lu, Qi Tang, Jinbo Xie, Dong-Chan Hong, Seok-Woo Son, Federico Serva, Pu Lin, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Aleena M. Jaison, Jeff R. Knight, Scott Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Kohei Yoshida, Yoshio Kawatani, and Jadwiga H. Richter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2856, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
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This study investigates the systematic biases in equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) by comparing internally generated and bias-corrected experiments using a multi-model ensemble. Although nudging effectively mitigates QBO biases, systematic biases in wave forcing are not fully resolved. The equatorial wave forcing in the lower stratosphere remains weaker than that in reanalyses, while an eastward wave forcing bias is observed in the mid-to-upper stratosphere.
Jishi Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Matthew Vincent Signorotti, Hsiang-He Lee, Peter Bogenschutz, Minda Monteagudo, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Robert S. Arthur, Stephen Po-Chedley, Philip Cameron-Smith, and Jean-Paul Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4513–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4513-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4513-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We ran a convection-permitting model with regional mesh refinement (3.25 km and 800 m) to simulate present-day wind and solar capacity factors over California, coupling it to an energy generation model. The high-resolution models captured realistic seasonal and diurnal cycles, with wind markedly better than a 25 km model and solar outperforming a 3 km operational forecast. We highlight the critical role of resolution, modeling assumptions, and data reliability in renewable energy assessment.
James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Jadwiga H. Richter, Tim Stockdale, Martin B. Andrews, Zhaoyang Chai, Paolo Davini, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Federico Serva, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1165, 2026
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We describe experiments where modelled tropical stratosphere winds are adjusted by "nudging" them toward realistic time-evolving eastward and westward Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) winds. The effects of this bias correction on other atmospheric processes, such as the stratospheric polar vortex or tropical waves that force the QBO, can then be assessed. We describe details of the experiments, the multi-model ensemble that has performed them, and basic validation of the nudging response.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosovic, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Lea Raillard, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Étienne Vignon, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1237, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Ewa Bednarz, Dillon Elsbury, Jorge L. García-Franco, Vinay Kumar, Froila M. Palmeiro, Natasha E. Trencham, Kohei Yoshida, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Aleena M. Jaison, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, François Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott M. Osprey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Federico Serva, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, and Jinbo Xie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-737, 2026
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The observed winds in the upper atmosphere over the equator have alternating easterly and westerly regions that descend towards the lower atmosphere before dissipating, with a period of approximately 28 months. This is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The QBO is known to influence remote regions of the atmosphere. This paper details the results of multi-model experiments where the QBO is nudged towards the observed QBO allowing the assessment of these remote connections.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Mark Taylor, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 795–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-795-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-795-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We pushed a global cloud-resolving model to a novel 100 m setup over the San Francisco Bay Area using a regionally refined mesh. The model captured fine-scale air motions over complex terrain and coastal regions at large-eddy scales with comprehensive global modeling configuration, enabled by scale-aware turbulence parameterization. Performance tests demonstrated that graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration make such high-resolution simulations feasible within practical timeframes.
Clara Orbe, Alison Ming, Gabriel Chiodo, Michael Prather, Mohamadou Diallo, Qi Tang, Andreas Chrysanthou, Hiroaki Naoe, Xin Zhou, Irina Thaler, Dillon Elsbury, Ewa Bednarz, Jonathon S. Wright, Aaron Match, Shingo Watanabe, James Anstey, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Stefan Versick, Marion Marchand, Feng Li, and James Keeble
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-773-2026, 2026
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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main source of wind fluctuations in the tropical stratosphere, which can couple to surface climate. However, models do a poor job of simulating the QBO in the lower stratosphere, for reasons that remain unclear. One possibility is that models do not completely represent how ozone influences the QBO-associated wind variations. Here we propose a multi-model framework for assessing how ozone influences the QBO in recent past and future climates.
Timothy W. Juliano, Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, Andrew S. Ackerman, Gregory S. Elsaesser, Bart Geerts, Christian P. Lackner, David Painemal, Israel Silber, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, Gunilla Svensson, Michael Tjernström, Peng Wu, Alejandro Baró Pérez, Peter Bogenschutz, Dmitry Chechin, Kamal Kant Chandrakar, Jan Chylik, Andrey Debolskiy, Rostislav Fadeev, Anu Gupta, Luisa Ickes, Michail Karalis, Martin Köhler, Branko Kosović, Peter Kuma, Weiwei Li, Evgeny Mortikov, Hugh Morrison, Roel A. J. Neggers, Anna Possner, Tomi Raatikainen, Sami Romakkaniemi, Niklas Schnierstein, Shin-ichiro Shima, Nikita Silin, Mikhail Tolstykh, Lulin Xue, Meng Zhang, and Xue Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6217, 2026
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Models struggle to capture cloud and precipitation processes and their radiative effects in marine cold-air outbreaks. We use a quasi-Lagrangian framework to compare large-eddy simulation (LES) and single-column model (SCM) output with field and satellite observations. With fixed droplet and ice numbers, LES and SCM agree in liquid-only tests. In mixed-phase conditions, LES plausibly capture cloud thinning and breakup, while SCMs largely remain overcast and thereby miss cloud radiative effects.
Naser Mahfouz, Hassan Beydoun, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Noel Keen, Adam C. Varble, Luca Bertagna, Peter Bogenschutz, Andrew Bradley, Matthew W. Christensen, T. Conrad Clevenger, Aaron Donahue, Jerome Fast, James Foucar, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Oksana Guba, Walter Hannah, Benjamin Hillman, Robert Jacob, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Balwinder Singh, Christopher Terai, Hailong Wang, Mingxuan Wu, Kai Zhang, Andrew Gettelman, Mark Taylor, L. Ruby Leung, Peter Caldwell, and Susannah Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 15105–15120, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-15105-2025, 2025
Short summary
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Our study assesses the aerosol effective radiative forcing in a global cloud-resolving atmosphere model at ultra-high resolution. We demonstrate that global aerosol forcing signal can be robustly reproduced across resolutions when aerosol activation processes are carefully parameterized. Further, we argue that simplified prescribed aerosol schemes will open the door for further process/mechanism studies under controlled conditions.
Allen Hu, Ziming Ke, Xiaohong Liu, Benjamin Wagman, Hunter Brown, Zheng Lu, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Qi Tang, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, and Shaocheng Xie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12137–12157, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12137-2025, 2025
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Volcanic eruptions have major effects on atmospheric temperature and can be studied as a proxy for geo-engineering. The original aerosol module in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2 (E3SMv2) has problems simulating volcanic aerosols. We alter the aerosol module to simulate the 1991 Pinatubo eruption and implement a more complex chemistry scheme, producing results that better agree with observations. Process analyses of the volcanic aerosols help explain how they grow in the stratosphere.
Jinbo Xie, Qi Tang, Michael Prather, Jadwiga Richter, and Shixuan Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9315–9333, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9315-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9315-2025, 2025
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Analysis of the interaction between the climate and ozone in the stratosphere is complicated by the inability of climate models to simulate the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) – an important climate mode in the stratosphere. We use a set of model simulations that realistically simulate QBO and a novel ozone diagnostic tool to separate temperature- and circulation-driven QBO impacts. These are important for diagnosing model–model differences in QBO–ozone responses for climate projections.
Ziming Ke, Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xiaohong Liu, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4137–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, 2025
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This study assesses volcanic aerosol representation in E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model), showing that an emission-based approach moderately improves temperature variability and cloud responses compared to a prescribed forcing approach, yet significant bias persists.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
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We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-203, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The E3SM Chemistry diagnostics package (ChemDyg) is a software tool, which is designed for the global climate model (E3SM) chemistry development. ChemDyg generates several diagnostic plots and tables for model-to-model and model-to-observation comparison, including 2-dimentional contour mapping plots, diurnal and annual cycle, time-series plots, and comprehensive processing tables. This paper is to introduce the details of each diagnostics set and its required input data formats in ChemDyg.
Yuying Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Yi Qin, Wuyin Lin, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xue Zheng, Po-Lun Ma, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Christopher R. Terai, and Meng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 169–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-169-2024, 2024
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We performed systematic evaluation of clouds simulated in the Energy
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2) to document model performance and understand what updates in E3SMv2 have caused changes in clouds from E3SMv1 to E3SMv2. We find that stratocumulus clouds along the subtropical west coast of continents are dramatically improved, primarily due to the retuning done in CLUBB. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 and will benefit future E3SM developments.
Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3953–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, 2023
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High-resolution simulations are superior to low-resolution ones in capturing regional climate changes and climate extremes. However, uniformly reducing the grid size of a global Earth system model is too computationally expensive. We provide an overview of the fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) of E3SMv2 and document a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM at an economic cost. The key to this success is our innovative hybrid time step method.
Dana L. McGuffin, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Matthew A. Horsley, Brian J. Bauman, Wim De Vries, Denis Healy, Alex Pertica, Chris Shaffer, and Lance M. Simms
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2129–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2129-2023, 2023
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This work demonstrates the viability of a remote sensing technique using nanosatellites to measure stratospheric temperature. This measurement technique can probe the stratosphere and mesosphere at a fine vertical scale around the globe unlike other high-altitude measurement techniques, which would provide an opportunity to observe atmospheric gravity waves and turbulence. We analyze observations from two satellite platforms to provide a proof of concept and characterize measurement uncertainty.
Maria J. Chinita, Mikael Witte, Marcin J. Kurowski, Joao Teixeira, Kay Suselj, Georgios Matheou, and Peter Bogenschutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1909–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1909-2023, 2023
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Low clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. In this paper, we introduce the first version of the unified turbulence and shallow convection parameterization named SHOC+MF developed to improve the representation of shallow cumulus clouds in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). Here, we also show promising preliminary results in a single-column model framework for two benchmark cases of shallow cumulus convection.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Takanobu Yamaguchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 335–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-335-2023, 2023
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Models that are used to simulate and predict climate often have trouble representing specific cloud types, such as stratocumulus, that are particularly thin in the vertical direction. It has been found that increasing the model resolution can help improve this problem. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that increases the horizontal and vertical resolutions only for areas of the globe that contain stratocumulus, hence reducing the model runtime while providing better results.
Chengzhu Zhang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Ryan Forsyth, Tom Vo, Shaocheng Xie, Zeshawn Shaheen, Gerald L. Potter, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Charles S. Zender, Wuyin Lin, Chih-Chieh Chen, Chris R. Terai, Salil Mahajan, Tian Zhou, Karthik Balaguru, Qi Tang, Cheng Tao, Yuying Zhang, Todd Emmenegger, Susannah Burrows, and Paul A. Ullrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9031–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9031-2022, 2022
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Earth system model (ESM) developers run automated analysis tools on data from candidate models to inform model development. This paper introduces a new Python package, E3SM Diags, that has been developed to support ESM development and use routinely in the development of DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model. This tool covers a set of essential diagnostics to evaluate the mean physical climate from simulations, as well as several process-oriented and phenomenon-based evaluation diagnostics.
Kai Zhang, Wentao Zhang, Hui Wan, Philip J. Rasch, Steven J. Ghan, Richard C. Easter, Xiangjun Shi, Yong Wang, Hailong Wang, Po-Lun Ma, Shixuan Zhang, Jian Sun, Susannah M. Burrows, Manish Shrivastava, Balwinder Singh, Yun Qian, Xiaohong Liu, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Qi Tang, Xue Zheng, Shaocheng Xie, Wuyin Lin, Yan Feng, Minghuai Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, and L. Ruby Leung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9129–9160, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, 2022
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Here we analyze the effective aerosol forcing simulated by E3SM version 1 using both century-long free-running and short nudged simulations. The aerosol forcing in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to other models, mainly due to the large indirect aerosol effect. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 have a strong correlation. The aerosol forcing estimates in E3SMv1 are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes.
Xue Zheng, Qing Li, Tian Zhou, Qi Tang, Luke P. Van Roekel, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Hailong Wang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3941–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, 2022
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We document the model experiments for the future climate projection by E3SMv1.0. At the highest future emission scenario, E3SMv1.0 projects a strong surface warming with rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land runoff. Specifically, we detect a significant polar amplification and accelerated warming linked to the unmasking of the aerosol effects. The impact of greenhouse gas forcing is examined in different climate components.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
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Short summary
Using high-resolution and state-of-the-art modeling techniques we simulate five atmospheric river events for California to test the capability to represent precipitation for these events. We find that our model is able to capture the distribution of precipitation very well but suffers from overestimating the precipitation amounts over high elevation. Increasing the resolution further has no impact on reducing this bias, while increasing the domain size does have modest impacts.
Using high-resolution and state-of-the-art modeling techniques we simulate five atmospheric...
