Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
Model evaluation paper
 | 
11 Dec 2023
Model evaluation paper |  | 11 Dec 2023

Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections

Michael Meier and Christof Bigler

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Cited articles

Alberto, F., Bouffier, L., Louvet, J. M., Lamy, J. B., Delzon, S., and Kremer, A.: Adaptive responses for seed and leaf phenology in natural populations of sessile oak along an altitudinal gradient, J. Evol. Biol., 24, 1442–1454, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1420-9101.2011.02277.x, 2011. 
Anderson, E., Bai, Z., Bischof, C., Blackford, L. S., Demmel, J., Dongarra, J., Du Croz, J., Greenbaum, A., Hammarling, S., McKenney, A., and Sorensen, D.: LAPACK users' guide, Third, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, SIAM, Philadelphia, PA, ISBN 0-89871-447-8, 1999. 
Arend, M., Gessler, A., and Schaub, M.: The influence of the soil on spring and autumn phenology in European beech, Tree Physiol., 36, 78–85, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv087, 2016. 
Asse, D., Chuine, I., Vitasse, Y., Yoccoz, N. G., Delpierre, N., Badeau, V., Delestrade, A., and Randin, C. F.: Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 252, 220–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.030, 2018. 
Basler, D.: Evaluating phenological models for the prediction of leaf-out dates in six temperate tree species across central Europe, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 217, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.007, 2016. 
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We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
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