Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
11 Dec 2023
Model evaluation paper |
| 11 Dec 2023
| 11 Dec 2023
Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections
Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
CEFE, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
Christof Bigler
Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Michael Meier, Christof Bigler, and Isabelle Chuine
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6963–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The DP3 model of leaf coloring, formulated according to the leaf development process, considerably contrasts previous models and allows to set up new hypotheses, e.g., regarding earlier onset and longer duration of senescence predicted for warmer conditions. Comparing the accuracy of the DP3 model to that of previous models and the Null model (average observed date of leaf coloring) suggests that leaf coloring data are noisy, which is why observation protocols and methods should be revised.
Michael Meier, Christof Bigler, and Isabelle Chuine
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6963–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The DP3 model of leaf coloring, formulated according to the leaf development process, considerably contrasts previous models and allows to set up new hypotheses, e.g., regarding earlier onset and longer duration of senescence predicted for warmer conditions. Comparing the accuracy of the DP3 model to that of previous models and the Null model (average observed date of leaf coloring) suggests that leaf coloring data are noisy, which is why observation protocols and methods should be revised.
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Short summary
We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models,...
