Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
Model evaluation paper
 | 
11 Dec 2023
Model evaluation paper |  | 11 Dec 2023

Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections

Michael Meier and Christof Bigler

Related authors

An example of how data quality hinders progress: translating the latest findings on the regulation of leaf senescence timing in trees into the DP3 model (v1.0)
Michael Meier, Christof Bigler, and Isabelle Chuine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460, 2025
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4009–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, 2025
Short summary
ICON-HAM-lite 1.0: simulating the Earth system with interactive aerosols at kilometer scales
Philipp Weiss, Ross Herbert, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3877–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025, 2025
Short summary
Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3799–3817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025, 2025
Short summary
Implementing deep soil and dynamic root uptake in Noah-MP (v4.5): impact on Amazon dry-season transpiration
Carolina A. Bieri, Francina Dominguez, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Ying Fan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3755–3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025, 2025
Short summary
Reducing time and computing costs in EC-Earth: an automatic load-balancing approach for coupled Earth system models
Sergi Palomas, Mario C. Acosta, Gladys Utrera, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3661–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Alberto, F., Bouffier, L., Louvet, J. M., Lamy, J. B., Delzon, S., and Kremer, A.: Adaptive responses for seed and leaf phenology in natural populations of sessile oak along an altitudinal gradient, J. Evol. Biol., 24, 1442–1454, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1420-9101.2011.02277.x, 2011. 
Anderson, E., Bai, Z., Bischof, C., Blackford, L. S., Demmel, J., Dongarra, J., Du Croz, J., Greenbaum, A., Hammarling, S., McKenney, A., and Sorensen, D.: LAPACK users' guide, Third, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, SIAM, Philadelphia, PA, ISBN 0-89871-447-8, 1999. 
Arend, M., Gessler, A., and Schaub, M.: The influence of the soil on spring and autumn phenology in European beech, Tree Physiol., 36, 78–85, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv087, 2016. 
Asse, D., Chuine, I., Vitasse, Y., Yoccoz, N. G., Delpierre, N., Badeau, V., Delestrade, A., and Randin, C. F.: Warmer winters reduce the advance of tree spring phenology induced by warmer springs in the Alps, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 252, 220–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.030, 2018. 
Basler, D.: Evaluating phenological models for the prediction of leaf-out dates in six temperate tree species across central Europe, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 217, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.007, 2016. 
Download
Short summary
We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
Share