Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 23
Model evaluation paper
 | 
11 Dec 2023
Model evaluation paper |  | 11 Dec 2023

Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections

Michael Meier and Christof Bigler

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Short summary
We analyzed >2.3 million calibrations and 39 million projections of leaf coloration models, considering 21 models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate scenarios. Models based on temperature, day length, and leaf unfolding performed best, especially when calibrated with generalized simulated annealing and systematically balanced or stratified samples. Projected leaf coloration shifts between −13 and +20 days by 2080–2099.
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