Articles | Volume 16, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6593-2023
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
16 Nov 2023
Methods for assessment of models |  | 16 Nov 2023

Monte Carlo drift correction – quantifying the drift uncertainty of global climate models

Benjamin S. Grandey, Zhi Yang Koh, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton, Justin Dauwels, and Lock Yue Chew

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Cited articles

Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M., and Lowe, J. A.: The Reversibility of Sea Level Rise, J. Climate., 26, 2502–2513, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00285.1, 2013. a
Brunetti, M. and Vérard, C.: How to Reduce Long-Term Drift in Present-Day and Deep-Time Simulations?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4425–4436, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3883-7, 2018. a, b
Choudhury, D., Sen Gupta, A., Sharma, A., Mehrotra, R., and Sivakumar, B.: An Assessment of Drift Correction Alternatives for CMIP5 Decadal Predictions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 10282–10296, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026900, 2017. a
Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., and Finnis, J.: First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021. a
Davies, J. H. and Davies, D. R.: Earth's surface heat flux, Solid Earth, 1, 5–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-1-5-2010, 2010. a
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Short summary
Global climate models are susceptible to spurious trends known as drift. Fortunately, drift can be corrected when analysing data produced by models. To explore the uncertainty associated with drift correction, we develop a new method: Monte Carlo drift correction. For historical simulations of thermosteric sea level rise, drift uncertainty is relatively large. When analysing data susceptible to drift, researchers should consider drift uncertainty.