Articles | Volume 16, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
| 
02 Nov 2023
Methods for assessment of models |
| 02 Nov 2023
| 02 Nov 2023
A robust error correction method for numerical weather prediction wind speed based on Bayesian optimization, variational mode decomposition, principal component analysis, and random forest: VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0)
Shaohui Zhou
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China
Zexia Duan
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Xingya Xi
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China
Yubin Li
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
Related authors
Liang Wang, Bingcheng Wan, Shaohui Zhou, Haofei Sun, and Zhiqiu Gao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2167–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The past 24 h TC trajectories and meteorological field data were used to forecast TC tracks in the northwestern Pacific from hours 6–72 based on GRU_CNN, which we proposed in this paper and which has better prediction results than traditional single deep-learning methods. The historical steering flow of cyclones has a significant effect on improving the accuracy of short-term forecasting, while, in long-term forecasting, the SST and geopotential height will have a particular impact.
Zexia Duan, Zhiqiu Gao, Qing Xu, Shaohui Zhou, Kai Qin, and Yuanjian Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4153–4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land–atmosphere interactions over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China are becoming more varied and complex, as the area is experiencing rapid land use changes. In this paper, we describe a dataset of microclimate and eddy covariance variables at four sites in the YRD. This dataset has potential use cases in multiple research fields, such as boundary layer parametrization schemes, evaluation of remote sensing algorithms, and development of climate models in typical East Asian monsoon regions.
Shaohui Zhou, Yuanjian Yang, Zhiqiu Gao, Xingya Xi, Zexia Duan, and Yubin Li
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 757–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research has determined the possible relationship between Weibull natural wind mesoscale parameter c and shape factor k with height under the conditions of a desert steppe terrain in northern China, which has great potential in wind power generation. We have gained an enhanced understanding of the seasonal changes in the surface roughness of the desert grassland and the changes in the incoming wind direction.
Jianbin Zhang, Zhiqiu Gao, Yubin Li, and Yuncong Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-187, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a deep learning model called CNN-BiLSTM-AM for convective weather forecasting. The results showed that the CNN-BiLSTM-AM model outperformed traditional machine learning algorithms in predicting convective weather, with higher accuracy as the forecast lead time increased. When compared to subjective forecasts by forecasters, the objective approach of the CNN-BiLSTM-AM model also demonstrated advantages in various metrics.
Naifu Shao, Chunsong Lu, Xingcan Jia, Yuan Wang, Yubin Li, Yan Yin, Bin Zhu, Tianliang Zhao, Duanyang Liu, Shengjie Niu, Shuxian Fan, Shuqi Yan, and Jingjing Lv
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9873–9890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Fog is an important meteorological phenomenon that affects visibility. Aerosols and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) play critical roles in the fog life cycle. In this study, aerosol-induced changes in fog properties become more remarkable in the second fog (Fog2) than in the first fog (Fog1). The reason is that aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) delays Fog1 dissipation, leading to the PBL meteorological conditions being more conducive to Fog2 formation and to stronger ACI in Fog2.
Shijie Peng, Qinghua Yang, Matthew D. Shupe, Xingya Xi, Bo Han, Dake Chen, Sandro Dahlke, and Changwei Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8683–8703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Due to a lack of observations, the structure of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains to be further explored. By analyzing a year-round radiosonde dataset collected over the Arctic sea-ice surface, we found the annual cycle of the ABL height (ABLH) is primarily controlled by the evolution of ABL thermal structure, and the surface conditions also show a high correlation with ABLH variation. In addition, the Arctic ABLH is found to be decreased in summer compared with 20 years ago.
Jianbin Zhang, Zexia Duan, Shaohui Zhou, Yubin Li, and Zhiqiu Gao
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2197–2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we used a random forest model to fill the observation gaps of the fluxes measured during 2015–2019. We found that the net radiation was the most important input variable. And we justified the reliability of the model. Further, it was revealed that the model performed better after relative humidity was removed from the input. Lastly, we compared the results of the model with those of three other machine learning models, and we found that the model outperformed all of them.
Liang Wang, Bingcheng Wan, Shaohui Zhou, Haofei Sun, and Zhiqiu Gao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2167–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The past 24 h TC trajectories and meteorological field data were used to forecast TC tracks in the northwestern Pacific from hours 6–72 based on GRU_CNN, which we proposed in this paper and which has better prediction results than traditional single deep-learning methods. The historical steering flow of cyclones has a significant effect on improving the accuracy of short-term forecasting, while, in long-term forecasting, the SST and geopotential height will have a particular impact.
Zexia Duan, Zhiqiu Gao, Qing Xu, Shaohui Zhou, Kai Qin, and Yuanjian Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4153–4169, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4153-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land–atmosphere interactions over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China are becoming more varied and complex, as the area is experiencing rapid land use changes. In this paper, we describe a dataset of microclimate and eddy covariance variables at four sites in the YRD. This dataset has potential use cases in multiple research fields, such as boundary layer parametrization schemes, evaluation of remote sensing algorithms, and development of climate models in typical East Asian monsoon regions.
Lian Zong, Yuanjian Yang, Haiyun Xia, Meng Gao, Zhaobin Sun, Zuofang Zheng, Xianxiang Li, Guicai Ning, Yubin Li, and Simone Lolli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6523–6538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Heatwaves (HWs) paired with higher ozone (O3) concentration at surface level pose a serious threat to human health. Taking Beijing as an example, three unfavorable synoptic weather patterns were identified to dominate the compound HW and O3 pollution events. Under the synergistic stress of HWs and O3 pollution, public mortality risk increased, and synoptic patterns and urbanization enhanced the compound risk of events in Beijing by 33.09 % and 18.95 %, respectively.
Shaohui Zhou, Yuanjian Yang, Zhiqiu Gao, Xingya Xi, Zexia Duan, and Yubin Li
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 757–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research has determined the possible relationship between Weibull natural wind mesoscale parameter c and shape factor k with height under the conditions of a desert steppe terrain in northern China, which has great potential in wind power generation. We have gained an enhanced understanding of the seasonal changes in the surface roughness of the desert grassland and the changes in the incoming wind direction.
Yixiong Lu, Tongwen Wu, Yubin Li, and Ben Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5183–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5183-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The spurious precipitation in the tropical southeastern Pacific and southern Atlantic is one of the most prominent systematic biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. This study significantly promotes the marine stratus simulation and largely alleviates the excessive precipitation biases through improving parameterizations of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection, providing an effective solution to the long-standing bias in the tropical precipitation simulation.
Lian Zong, Yuanjian Yang, Meng Gao, Hong Wang, Peng Wang, Hongliang Zhang, Linlin Wang, Guicai Ning, Chao Liu, Yubin Li, and Zhiqiu Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9105–9124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, summer O3 pollution over eastern China has become more serious, and it is even the case that surface O3 and PM2.5 pollution can co-occur. However, the synoptic weather pattern (SWP) related to this compound pollution remains unclear. Regional PM2.5 and O3 compound pollution is characterized by various SWPs with different dominant factors. Our findings provide insights into the regional co-occurring high PM2.5 and O3 levels via the effects of certain meteorological factors.
Qiuyan Du, Chun Zhao, Mingshuai Zhang, Xue Dong, Yu Chen, Zhen Liu, Zhiyuan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Yubin Li, Renmin Yuan, and Shiguang Miao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2839–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2839-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Simulated diurnal PM2.5 with WRF-Chem is primarily controlled by planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing and emission variations. Modeling bias is likely primarily due to inefficient PBL mixing of primary PM2.5 during the night. The increase in PBL mixing strength during the night can significantly reduce biases. This study underscores that more effort is needed to improve the boundary mixing processes of pollutants in models with observations of PBL structure and mixing fluxes besides PBL height.
Renmin Yuan, Xiaoye Zhang, Hao Liu, Yu Gui, Bohao Shao, Xiaoping Tao, Yaqiang Wang, Junting Zhong, Yubin Li, and Zhiqiu Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12857–12874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12857-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12857-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the contribution of ground emission during heavy pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, aerosol fluxes were estimated in Beijing and Gucheng areas. The results show that in the three stages of a heavy pollution process (transport, accumulative and removal stages: TS, AS and RS), the ground emissions in the TS and RS stages are stronger, while the ground discharge in the AS stage is weak. The weakened mass flux indicates that the already weak turbulence would be further weakened.
Linlin Wang, Junkai Liu, Zhiqiu Gao, Yubin Li, Meng Huang, Sihui Fan, Xiaoye Zhang, Yuanjian Yang, Shiguang Miao, Han Zou, Yele Sun, Yong Chen, and Ting Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6949–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6949-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6949-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Urban boundary layer (UBL) affects the physical and chemical processes of the pollutants, and UBL structure can also be altered by pollutants. This paper presents the interactions between air pollution and the UBL structure by using the field data mainly collected from a 325 m meteorology tower, as well as from a Doppler wind lidar, during a severe heavy pollution event that occurred during 1–4 December 2016 in Beijing.
Junting Zhong, Xiaoye Zhang, Yaqiang Wang, Jizhi Wang, Xiaojing Shen, Hongsheng Zhang, Tijian Wang, Zhouqing Xie, Cheng Liu, Hengde Zhang, Tianliang Zhao, Junying Sun, Shaojia Fan, Zhiqiu Gao, Yubin Li, and Linlin Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3287–3306, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3287-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3287-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In various haze regions in China, including the Guanzhong Plain, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Delta, the Sichuan Basin, and the Northeast China Plain, heavy aerosol pollution episodes include inter-/trans-regional transport stages and cumulative stages (CSs). During CSs a two-way feedback mechanism exists between unfavorable meteorological conditions and cumulative aerosol pollution. This two-way feedback is further quantified and its magnitude is compared.
Liguang Wu, Qingyuan Liu, and Yubin Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2477–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2477-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2477-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The tornado-scale vortex in the tropical cyclone boundary layer has been speculated in intense hurricanes. A numerical experiment is conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model by incorporating the large-eddy simulation technique. The simulated tornado-scale vortex shows the similar features as revealed with the limited observational data. The presence of the tornado-scale vortex also leads to significant gradients in the near surface wind speed and wind gusts.
Yue Peng, Hong Wang, Yubin Li, Changwei Liu, Tianliang Zhao, Xiaoye Zhang, Zhiqiu Gao, Tong Jiang, Huizheng Che, and Meng Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17421–17435, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Two surface layer schemes are evaluated in eastern China based on observational flux data. The results indicate that the Li scheme better describes regional atmosphere stratification compared with the MM5 scheme, especially for the transition stage from unstable to stable atmosphere conditions, corresponding to PM2.5 accumulation. Our research suggests the potential improved possibilities for severe haze prediction in eastern China by coupling Li online into atmosphere chemical models.
Xinhua Zhou, Qinghua Yang, Xiaojie Zhen, Yubin Li, Guanghua Hao, Hui Shen, Tian Gao, Yirong Sun, and Ning Zheng
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5981–6002, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5981-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The three-dimensional wind and sonic temperature data from a physically deformed sonic anemometer was successfully recovered by developing equations, algorithms, and related software. Using two sets of geometry data from production calibration and return re-calibration, this algorithm can recover wind with/without transducer shadow correction and sonic temperature with crosswind correction, and then obtain fluxes at quality as expected. This study is applicable as a reference for related topics.
Chloe Y. Gao, Susanne E. Bauer, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14243–14251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14243-2018, 2018
Chloe Y. Gao, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Susanne E. Bauer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 751–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-751-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-751-2017, 2017
Y. Zhang, Z. Gao, D. Li, Y. Li, N. Zhang, X. Zhao, and J. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2599–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2599-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2599-2014, 2014
Y. Li, Z. Gao, D. Li, L. Wang, and H. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 515–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-515-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-515-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)
Modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales: model development (IAP-AACM_PAH v1.0) and investigation of health risks in 2013 and 2018 in China
LIMA (v2.0): A full two-moment cloud microphysical scheme for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH v5-6
SLUCM+BEM (v1.0): a simple parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption in WRF-Urban (v4.3.2)
NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM2.5 chemical components
Source-specific bias correction of US background and anthropogenic ozone modeled in CMAQ
Observational operator for fair model evaluation with ground NO2 measurements
Valid time shifting ensemble Kalman filter (VTS-EnKF) for dust storm forecasting
An updated parameterization of the unstable atmospheric surface layer in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system
The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators
An updated aerosol simulation in the Community Earth System Model (v2.1.3): dust and marine aerosol emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation
Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization
Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
Development of the MPAS-CMAQ coupled system (V1.0) for multiscale global air quality modeling
Assessment of object-based indices to identify convective organization
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System version 1.0
NEIVAv1.0: Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi et al. (2011) version 1.0
FLEXPART version 11: improved accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility
Challenges of high-fidelity air quality modeling in urban environments – PALM sensitivity study during stable conditions
Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America
Recommended coupling to global meteorological fields for long-term tracer simulations with WRF-GHG
Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework
Improved definition of prior uncertainties in CO2 and CO fossil fuel fluxes and its impact on multi-species inversion with GEOS-Chem (v12.5)
RASCAL v1.0: an open-source tool for climatological time series reconstruction and extension
Introducing graupel density prediction in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics and evaluation of the modified scheme during the ICE-POP field campaign
Enabling high-performance cloud computing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) version 5.3.3: performance evaluation and benefits for the user community
Atmospheric-river-induced precipitation in California as simulated by the regionally refined Simple Convective Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Version 0
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Recent improvements and maximum covariance analysis of aerosol and cloud properties in the EC-Earth3-AerChem model
GPU-HADVPPM4HIP V1.0: using the heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) to speed up the piecewise parabolic method in the CAMx (v6.10) air quality model on China's domestic GPU-like accelerator
Preliminary evaluation of the effect of electro-coalescence with conducting sphere approximation on the formation of warm cumulus clouds using SCALE-SDM version 0.2.5–2.3.0
Similarity-Based Analysis of Atmospheric Organic Compounds for Machine Learning Applications
Exploring the footprint representation of microwave radiance observations in an Arctic limited-area data assimilation system
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: A tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
Analysis of model error in forecast errors of extended atmospheric Lorenz 05 systems and the ECMWF system
Description and validation of Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic (VERT) 1.0, an R-based framework for estimating road transport emissions from traffic flows
AeroMix v1.0.1: a Python package for modeling aerosol optical properties and mixing states
Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP
Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains
Mixed-precision computing in the GRIST dynamical core for weather and climate modelling
A conservative immersed boundary method for the multi-physics urban large-eddy simulation model uDALES v2.0
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Objective identification of meteorological fronts and climatologies from ERA-Interim and ERA5
TAMS: a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets
Development of the adjoint of the unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX) in GEOS-Chem adjoint v36
New explicit formulae for the settling speed of prolate spheroids in the atmosphere: theoretical background and implementation in AerSett v2.0.2
ZJU-AERO V0.5: an Accurate and Efficient Radar Operator designed for CMA-GFS/MESO with the capability to simulate non-spherical hydrometeors
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
Lucie Bakels, Daria Tatsii, Anne Tipka, Rona Thompson, Marina Dütsch, Michael Blaschek, Petra Seibert, Katharina Baier, Silvia Bucci, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Stephan Henne, Pirmin Kaufmann, Vincent Lechner, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Ignacio Pisso, Andreas Plach, Rakesh Subramanian, Martin Vojta, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models are essential for improving our understanding of how gases and particles move in the atmosphere. We present an update of the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART. FLEXPART 11 is more accurate due to a reduced number of interpolations and a new scheme for wet deposition. It can simulate non-spherical aerosols and includes linear chemical reactions. It is parallelised using OpenMP and includes new user options. A new user manual details how to use FLEXPART 11.
Jaroslav Resler, Petra Bauerová, Michal Belda, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Vladimír Fuka, Jan Geletič, Radek Jareš, Jan Karel, Josef Keder, Pavel Krč, William Patiño, Jelena Radović, Hynek Řezníček, Matthias Sühring, Adriana Šindelářová, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7513–7537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed modeling of urban air quality in stable conditions is a challenge. We show the unprecedented sensitivity of a large eddy simulation (LES) model to meteorological boundary conditions and model parameters in an urban environment under stable conditions. We demonstrate the crucial role of boundary conditions for the comparability of results with observations. The study reveals a strong sensitivity of the results to model parameters and model numerical instabilities during such conditions.
Jorge E. Pachón, Mariel A. Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Huneeus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Andreas Uppstu, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, María de Fátima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7467–7512, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world, with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC, with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain was assembled as a first step towards an air quality forecasting system.
David Ho, Michał Gałkowski, Friedemann Reum, Santiago Botía, Julia Marshall, Kai Uwe Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7401–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric model users often overlook the impact of the land–atmosphere interaction. This study accessed various setups of WRF-GHG simulations that ensure consistency between the model and driving reanalysis fields. We found that a combination of nudging and frequent re-initialization allows certain improvement by constraining the soil moisture fields and, through its impact on atmospheric mixing, improves atmospheric transport.
Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, Marcus J. Thatcher, Son C. H. Truong, Rachael N. Isphording, and John L. McGregor
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7285–7315, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a comprehensive approach to select a subset of CMIP6 models for dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia, taking into account model performance, model independence, data availability and the range of future climate projections. The standardised benchmarking framework is applied to assess model performance through both statistical and process-based metrics. Ultimately, we identify two independent model groups that are suitable for dynamical downscaling in the Southeast Asian region.
Ingrid Super, Tia Scarpelli, Arjan Droste, and Paul I. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7263–7284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring greenhouse gas emission reductions requires a combination of models and observations, as well as an initial emission estimate. Each component provides information with a certain level of certainty and is weighted to yield the most reliable estimate of actual emissions. We describe efforts for estimating the uncertainty in the initial emission estimate, which significantly impacts the outcome. Hence, a good uncertainty estimate is key for obtaining reliable information on emissions.
Álvaro González-Cervera and Luis Durán
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7245–7261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
RASCAL is an open-source Python tool designed for reconstructing daily climate observations, especially in regions with complex local phenomena. It merges large-scale weather patterns with local weather using the analog method. Evaluations in central Spain show that RASCAL outperforms ERA20C reanalysis in reconstructing precipitation and temperature. RASCAL offers opportunities for broad scientific applications, from short-term forecasts to local-scale climate change scenarios.
Sun-Young Park, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Kwonil Kim, Gyuwon Lee, and Jason A. Milbrandt
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7199–7218, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We enhance the WDM6 scheme by incorporating predicted graupel density. The modification affects graupel characteristics, including fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships. Simulations highlight changes in graupel distribution and precipitation patterns, potentially influencing surface snow amounts. The study underscores the significance of integrating predicted graupel density for a more realistic portrayal of microphysical properties in weather models.
Christos I. Efstathiou, Elizabeth Adams, Carlie J. Coats, Robert Zelt, Mark Reed, John McGee, Kristen M. Foley, Fahim I. Sidi, David C. Wong, Steven Fine, and Saravanan Arunachalam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7001–7027, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7001-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a summary of enabling high-performance computing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) – a state-of-the-science community multiscale air quality model – on two cloud computing platforms through documenting the technologies, model performance, scaling and relative merits. This may be a new paradigm for computationally intense future model applications. We initiated this work due to a need to leverage cloud computing advances and to ease the learning curve for new users.
Peter A. Bogenschutz, Jishi Zhang, Qi Tang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7029–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7029-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using high-resolution and state-of-the-art modeling techniques we simulate five atmospheric river events for California to test the capability to represent precipitation for these events. We find that our model is able to capture the distribution of precipitation very well but suffers from overestimating the precipitation amounts over high elevation. Increasing the resolution further has no impact on reducing this bias, while increasing the domain size does have modest impacts.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements in 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Manu Anna Thomas, Klaus Wyser, Shiyu Wang, Marios Chatziparaschos, Paraskevi Georgakaki, Montserrat Costa-Surós, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria Kanakidou, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Athanasios Nenes, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Abhay Devasthale
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6903–6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol–cloud interactions occur at a range of spatio-temporal scales. While evaluating recent developments in EC-Earth3-AerChem, this study aims to understand the extent to which the Twomey effect manifests itself at larger scales. We find a reduction in the warm bias over the Southern Ocean due to model improvements. While we see footprints of the Twomey effect at larger scales, the negative relationship between cloud droplet number and liquid water drives the shortwave radiative effect.
Kai Cao, Qizhong Wu, Lingling Wang, Hengliang Guo, Nan Wang, Huaqiong Cheng, Xiao Tang, Dongxing Li, Lina Liu, Dongqing Li, Hao Wu, and Lanning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6887–6901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
AMD’s heterogeneous-compute interface for portability was implemented to port the piecewise parabolic method solver from NVIDIA GPUs to China's GPU-like accelerators. The results show that the larger the model scale, the more acceleration effect on the GPU-like accelerator, up to 28.9 times. The multi-level parallelism achieves a speedup of 32.7 times on the heterogeneous cluster. By comparing the results, the GPU-like accelerators have more accuracy for the geoscience numerical models.
Ruyi Zhang, Limin Zhou, Shin-ichiro Shima, and Huawei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6761–6774, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Solar activity weakly ionises Earth's atmosphere, charging cloud droplets. Electro-coalescence is when oppositely charged droplets stick together. We introduce an analytical expression of electro-coalescence probability and use it in a warm-cumulus-cloud simulation. Results show that charge cases increase rain and droplet size, with the new method outperforming older ones. The new method requires longer computation time, but its impact on rain justifies inclusion in meteorology models.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.18171, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning model in atmospheric sciences.
Máté Mile, Stephanie Guedj, and Roger Randriamampianina
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6571–6587, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6571-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations provide crucial information about atmospheric constituents in a global distribution that helps to better predict the weather over sparsely observed regions like the Arctic. However, the use of satellite data is usually conservative and imperfect. In this study, a better spatial representation of satellite observations is discussed and explored by a so-called footprint function or operator, highlighting its added value through a case study and diagnostics.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-129, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Orbital-radar is a Python tool transferring sub-orbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated NWP) into synthetical space-borne cloud profiling radar data mimicking the platform characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat CPR. The novelty of orbital-radar is the simulation platform characteristic noise floors and errors. By this long time data sets can be transformed into synthetic observations for Cal/Valor sensitivity studies for new or future satellite missions.
Hynek Bednář and Holger Kantz
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6489–6511, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6489-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The forecast error growth of atmospheric phenomena is caused by initial and model errors. When studying the initial error growth, it may turn out that small-scale phenomena, which contribute little to the forecast product, significantly affect the ability to predict this product. With a negative result, we investigate in the extended Lorenz (2005) system whether omitting these phenomena will improve predictability. A theory explaining and describing this behavior is developed.
Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi, Sergio Teggi, and Grazia Ghermandi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6465–6487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present VERT (Vehicular Emissions from Road Traffic), an R package designed to estimate transport emissions using traffic estimates and vehicle fleet composition data. Compared to other tools available in the literature, VERT stands out for its user-friendly configuration and flexibility of user input. Case studies demonstrate its accuracy in both urban and regional contexts, making it a valuable tool for air quality management and transport scenario planning.
Sam P. Raj, Puna Ram Sinha, Rohit Srivastava, Srinivas Bikkina, and Damu Bala Subrahamanyam
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6379–6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6379-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A Python successor to the aerosol module of the OPAC model, named AeroMix, has been developed, with enhanced capabilities to better represent real atmospheric aerosol mixing scenarios. AeroMix’s performance in modeling aerosol mixing states has been evaluated against field measurements, substantiating its potential as a versatile aerosol optical model framework for next-generation algorithms to infer aerosol mixing states and chemical composition.
Angeline G. Pendergrass, Michael P. Byrne, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Penelope Maher, and Mark J. Webb
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6365–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The width of the tropical rain belt affects many aspects of our climate, yet we do not understand what controls it. To better understand it, we present a method to change it in numerical model experiments. We show that the method works well in four different models. The behavior of the width is unexpectedly simple in some ways, such as how strong the winds are as it changes, but in other ways, it is more complicated, especially how temperature increases with carbon dioxide.
Tianning Su and Yunyan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6319–6336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using 2 decades of field observations over the Southern Great Plains, this study developed a deep-learning model to simulate the complex dynamics of boundary layer clouds. The deep-learning model can serve as the cloud parameterization within reanalysis frameworks, offering insights into improving the simulation of low clouds. By quantifying biases due to various meteorological factors and parameterizations, this deep-learning-driven approach helps bridge the observation–modeling divide.
Siyuan Chen, Yi Zhang, Yiming Wang, Zhuang Liu, Xiaohan Li, and Wei Xue
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6301–6318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores strategies and techniques for implementing mixed-precision code optimization within an atmosphere model dynamical core. The coded equation terms in the governing equations that are sensitive (or insensitive) to the precision level have been identified. The performance of mixed-precision computing in weather and climate simulations was analyzed.
Sam O. Owens, Dipanjan Majumdar, Chris E. Wilson, Paul Bartholomew, and Maarten van Reeuwijk
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6277–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Designing cities that are resilient, sustainable, and beneficial to health requires an understanding of urban climate and air quality. This article presents an upgrade to the multi-physics numerical model uDALES, which can simulate microscale airflow, heat transfer, and pollutant dispersion in urban environments. This upgrade enables it to resolve realistic urban geometries more accurately and to take advantage of the resources available on current and future high-performance computing systems.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Folkert Boersma, Enrico Dammers, and Charlotte Bryan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2225, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOX emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals derived from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOX emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of NO2 lifetime, NOX:NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces a strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Allison A. Wing, Levi G. Silvers, and Kevin A. Reed
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6195–6225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the experimental design for a model intercomparison project to study tropical clouds and climate. It is a follow-up from a prior project that used a simplified framework for tropical climate. The new project adds one new component – a specified pattern of sea surface temperatures as the lower boundary condition. We provide example results from one cloud-resolving model and one global climate model and test the sensitivity to the experimental parameters.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Doung H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-117, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This article introduces the MESSy DWARF. Usually, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to full dynamical models to build chemistry climate models. However, due to the modular concept of MESSy, and the newly developed DWARF component, it is now possible to create simplified models containing just one or some process descriptions. This renders very useful for technical optimisation (e.g., GPU porting) and can be used to create less complex models, e.g., a chemical box model.
Philip G. Sansom and Jennifer L. Catto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6137–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6137-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather fronts bring a lot of rain and strong winds to many regions of the mid-latitudes. We have developed an updated method of identifying these fronts in gridded data that can be used on new datasets with small grid spacing. The method can be easily applied to different datasets due to the use of open-source software for its development and shows improvements over similar previous methods. We present an updated estimate of the average frequency of fronts over the past 40 years.
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio and Zachary L. Moon
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6035–6049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
TAMS is an open-source Python-based package for tracking and classifying mesoscale convective systems that can be used to study observed and simulated systems. Each step of the algorithm is described in this paper with examples showing how to make use of visualization and post-processing tools within the package. A unique and valuable feature of this tracker is its support for unstructured grids in the identification stage and grid-independent tracking.
Irene C. Dedoussi, Daven K. Henze, Sebastian D. Eastham, Raymond L. Speth, and Steven R. H. Barrett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5689–5703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric model gradients provide a meaningful tool for better understanding the underlying atmospheric processes. Adjoint modeling enables computationally efficient gradient calculations. We present the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX). With this development, the GEOS-Chem adjoint model can capture stratospheric ozone and other processes jointly with tropospheric processes. We apply it to characterize the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species.
Sylvain Mailler, Sotirios Mallios, Arineh Cholakian, Vassilis Amiridis, Laurent Menut, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5641–5655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose two explicit expressions to calculate the settling speed of solid atmospheric particles with prolate spheroidal shapes. The first formulation is based on theoretical arguments only, while the second one is based on computational fluid dynamics calculations. We show that the first method is suitable for virtually all atmospheric aerosols, provided their shape can be adequately described as a prolate spheroid, and we provide an implementation of the first method in AerSett v2.0.2.
Hejun Xie, Lei Bi, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5657–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A radar operator plays a crucial role in utilizing radar observations to enhance numerical weather forecasts. However, developing an advanced radar operator is challenging due to various complexities associated with the wave scattering by non-spherical hydrometeors, radar beam propagation, and multiple platforms. In this study, we introduce a novel radar operator named the Accurate and Efficient Radar Operator developed by ZheJiang University (ZJU-AERO) which boasts several unique features.
Jonathan J. Day, Gunilla Svensson, Barbara Casati, Taneil Uttal, Siri-Jodha Khalsa, Eric Bazile, Elena Akish, Niramson Azouz, Lara Ferrighi, Helmut Frank, Michael Gallagher, Øystein Godøy, Leslie M. Hartten, Laura X. Huang, Jareth Holt, Massimo Di Stefano, Irene Suomi, Zen Mariani, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Teresa Remes, Rostislav Fadeev, Amy Solomon, Johanna Tjernström, and Mikhail Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5511–5543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP), which was designed to facilitate enhanced weather forecast evaluation in polar regions, is discussed here, focussing on describing the archive of forecast data and presenting a multi-model evaluation at Arctic supersites during February and March 2018. The study highlights an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variance that is common across models and a related inability to forecast cold extremes at several of the sites.
Cited articles
Barthelmie, R. J., Palutikof, J. P., and Davies, T. D.: Estimation of sector roughness lengths and the effect on prediction of the vertical wind speed profile, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 66, 19–47, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00705458, 1993.
Cassola, F. and Burlando, M.: Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output, Appl. Energ., 99, 154–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.03.054, 2012.
Chen, F., Janjić, Z., and Mitchell, K.: Impact of Atmospheric Surface-layer Parameterizations in the new Land-surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 85, 391–421, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1000531001463, 1997.
Chen, K. and Yu, J.: Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach, Appl. Energ., 113, 690–705, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.025, 2014.
Cheng, W. Y. Y., Liu, Y., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Mahoney, W. P., and Warner, T. T.: The impact of model physics on numerical wind forecasts, Renew. Energ., 55, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.12.041, 2013.
Deng, Y., Wang, B., and Lu, Z.: A hybrid model based on data preprocessing strategy and error correction system for wind speed forecasting, Energ. Convers. Manage., 212, 112779, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.112779, 2020.
Dhiman, H. S. and Deb, D.: A Review of Wind Speed and Wind Power Forecasting Techniques, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2009.02279, 2 September 2020.
Dong, L., Ren, L., Gao, S., Gao, Y., and Liao, X.: Studies on wind farms ultra-short term NWP wind speed correction methods, in: 2013 25th Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC), 2013 25th Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC), Guiyang, China, 1576–1579, https://doi.org/10.1109/CCDC.2013.6561180, 25–27 May 2013.
Erdem, E. and Shi, J.: ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction, Appl. Energ., 88, 1405–1414, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.10.031, 2011.
Guo, X., Zhu, C., Hao, J., Zhang, S., and Zhu, L.: A hybrid method for short-term wind speed forecasting based on Bayesian optimization and error correction, J. Renew. Sustain. Ener., 13, 036101, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0048686, 2021.
Guo, Z., Zhao, W., Lu, H., and Wang, J.: Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model, Renew. Energ., 37, 241–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2011.06.023, 2012.
Hanifi, S., Liu, X., Lin, Z., and Lotfian, S.: A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods – Past, Present and Future, Energies, 13, 3764, https://doi.org/10.3390/en13153764, 2020.
Hu, H., Wang, L., and Tao, R.: Wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and improved echo state network, Renew. Energ., 164, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.109, 2021.
Hu, J., Wang, J., and Zeng, G.: A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series, Renew. Energ., 60, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.05.012, 2013.
Huang, Y., Yang, L., Liu, S., and Wang, G.: Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting Based On Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Long Short Term Memory Network and Error Correction Strategy, Energies, 12, 1822, https://doi.org/10.3390/en12101822, 2019.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A., and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Isham, M. F., Leong, M. S., Lim, M. H., and Ahmad, Z. A.: Variational mode decomposition: mode determination method for rotating machinery diagnosis, J. Vibroeng., 20, 2604–2621, https://doi.org/10.21595/jve.2018.19479, 2018.
James, E. P., Benjamin, S. G., and Marquis, M.: Offshore wind speed estimates from a high-resolution rapidly updating numerical weather prediction model forecast dataset, Wind Energy, 21, 264–284, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2161, 2018.
Janjić, Z. I.: The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 927–945, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Jiménez, P. A. and Dudhia, J.: Improving the Representation of Resolved and Unresolved Topographic Effects on Surface Wind in the WRF Model, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 300–316, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-084.1, 2012.
Joyce, L. and Feng Z.: Global Wind Report 2023, Global Wind Energy Council, https://gwec.net/globalwindreport2023, last access: 9 May 2023.
Li, G. and Shi, J.: Application of Bayesian model averaging in modeling long-term wind speed distributions, Renew. Energ., 35, 1192–1202, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.09.003, 2010.
Li, Y., Tang, F., Gao, X., Zhang, T., Qi, J., Xie, J., Li, X., and Guo, Y.: Numerical Weather Prediction Correction Strategy for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit and XGBoost, Front. Energy Res., 9, 836144, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2021.836144, 2022.
Liu, H., Mi, X., and Li, Y.: An experimental investigation of three new hybrid wind speed forecasting models using multi-decomposing strategy and ELM algorithm, Renew. Energ., 123, 694–705, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.092, 2018.
Liu, Y., Wang, Y., Li, L., Han, S., and Infield, D.: Numerical weather prediction wind correction methods and its impact on computational fluid dynamics based wind power forecasting, J. Renew. Sustain. Ener., 8, 033302, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4950972, 2016.
Ma, Z., Chen, H., Wang, J., Yang, X., Yan, R., Jia, J., and Xu, W.: Application of hybrid model based on double decomposition, error correction and deep learning in short-term wind speed prediction, Energ. Convers. Manage., 205, 112345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.112345, 2020.
Salcedo-Sanz, S., Ángel M. Pérez-Bellido, Ortiz-García, E. G., Portilla-Figueras, A., Prieto, L., and Paredes, D.: Hybridizing the fifth generation mesoscale model with artificial neural networks for short-term wind speed prediction, Renew. Energ., 34, 1451–1457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2008.10.017, 2009.
Salcedo-Sanz, S., Ortiz-García, E., Pérez-Bellido, Á., Portilla-Figueras, A., and Prieto, L.: Short term wind speed prediction based on evolutionary support vector regression algorithms, Expert Syst. Appl., 38, 4052–4057, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.09.067, 2011.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Barker, D. M., and Huang, X.-Y.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4, NCAR Tech. Note, 145, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97, 2021.
Služenikina, J. and Männik, A.: Impact of the ASCAT scatterometer winds on the quality of HIRLAM analysis in case of severe storms, Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci., 65, 177–194, https://doi.org/10.3176/proc.2016.3.03, 2016.
Sun, Q., Jiao, R., Xia, J., Yan, Z., Li, H., Sun, J., Wang, L., and Liang, Z.: Adjusting Wind Speed Prediction of Numerical Weather Forecast Model Based on Machine Learning Methods, Meteorological Monthly, 45, 426–436, http://qxqk.nmc.cn/html/2019/3/20190312.html (last access: 13 October 2023), 2019.
Tang, R., Ning, Y., Li, C., Feng, W., Chen, Y., and Xie, X.: Numerical Forecast Correction of Temperature and Wind Using a Single-Station Single-Time Spatial LightGBM Method, Sensors, 22, 193, https://doi.org/10.3390/s22010193, 2021.
Tascikaraoglu, A. and Uzunoglu, M.: A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 34, 243–254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.03.033, 2014.
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1, 2008.
Tiedtke, M.: A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 1989.
Wang, C., Zhang, H., Fan, W., and Ma, P.: A new chaotic time series hybrid prediction method of wind power based on EEMD-SE and full-parameters continued fraction, Energy, 138, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.112, 2017.
Wang, J. and Hu, J.: A robust combination approach for short-term wind speed forecasting and analysis – Combination of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and LSSVM (Least Square SVM) forecasts using a GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) model, Energy, 93, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.045, 2015.
Williams, J. L., Maxwell, R. M., and Monache, L. D.: Development and verification of a new wind speed forecasting system using an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation technique in a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric model: Data Assimilation in a Coupled Forecasting System, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 785–800, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20051, 2013.
Xiong, X., Guo, X., Zeng, P., Zou, R., and Wang, X.: A Short-Term Wind Power Forecast Method via XGBoost Hyper-Parameters Optimization, Front. Energy Res., 10, 905155, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.905155, 2022.
Xu, Q., He, D., Zhang, N., Kang, C., Xia, Q., Bai, J., and Huang, J.: A Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Approach With Adjustment of Numerical Weather Prediction Input by Data Mining, IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy, 6, 1283–1291, https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2015.2429586, 2015.
Xu, W., Liu, P., Cheng, L., Zhou, Y., Xia, Q., Gong, Y., and Liu, Y.: Multi-step wind speed prediction by combining a WRF simulation and an error correction strategy, Renew. Energ., 163, 772–782, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.032, 2021.
Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Hamilton, K.: Improved Representation of Boundary Layer Clouds over the Southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF Using a Modified Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme*, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3489–3513, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05091.1, 2011.
Zhang, D., Peng, X., Pan, K., and Liu, Y.: A novel wind speed forecasting based on hybrid decomposition and online sequential outlier robust extreme learning machine, Energ. Convers. Manage., 180, 338–357, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.10.089, 2019.
Zhang, Y., Chen, B., Pan, G., and Zhao, Y.: A novel hybrid model based on VMD-WT and PCA-BP-RBF neural network for short-term wind speed forecasting, Energ. Convers. Manage., 195, 180–197, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.05.005, 2019.
Zhang, Z., Ye, L., Qin, H., Liu, Y., Wang, C., Yu, X., Yin, X., and Li, J.: Wind speed prediction method using Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network and Gaussian Process Regression, Appl. Energ., 247, 270–284, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.047, 2019.
Zhao, J., Guo, Z.-H., Su, Z.-Y., Zhao, Z.-Y., Xiao, X., and Liu, F.: An improved multi-step forecasting model based on WRF ensembles and creative fuzzy systems for wind speed, Appl. Energ., 162, 808–826, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.145, 2016.
Zhao, J., Wang, J., Guo, Z., Guo, Y., Lin, W., and Lin, Y.: Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on numerical simulations and an optimized stochastic ensemble method, Appl. Energ., 255, 113833, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113833, 2019.
Zhou, S.: A robust error correction method for numerical weather prediction wind speed based on Bayesian optimization, Variational Mode Decomposition, Principal Component Analysis, and Random Forest: VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0): Second release of my code, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8108889, 2023.
Zjavka, L.: Wind speed forecast correction models using polynomial neural networks, Renew. Energ., 83, 998–1006, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.04.054, 2015.
Short summary
The proposed wind speed correction model (VMD-PCA-RF) demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy and stability in the five southern provinces in nearly a year and at different heights. VMD-PCA-RF evaluation indices for 13 months remain relatively stable: the forecasting accuracy rate FA is above 85 %. In future research, the proposed VMD-PCA-RF algorithm can be extrapolated to the 3 km grid points of the five southern provinces to generate a 3 km grid-corrected wind speed product.
The proposed wind speed correction model (VMD-PCA-RF) demonstrates the highest prediction...
