Articles | Volume 16, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
02 Nov 2023
Methods for assessment of models |  | 02 Nov 2023

A robust error correction method for numerical weather prediction wind speed based on Bayesian optimization, variational mode decomposition, principal component analysis, and random forest: VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0)

Shaohui Zhou, Chloe Yuchao Gao, Zexia Duan, Xingya Xi, and Yubin Li

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Cited articles

Barthelmie, R. J., Palutikof, J. P., and Davies, T. D.: Estimation of sector roughness lengths and the effect on prediction of the vertical wind speed profile, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 66, 19–47, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00705458, 1993. 
Cassola, F. and Burlando, M.: Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output, Appl. Energ., 99, 154–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.03.054, 2012. 
Chen, F., Janjić, Z., and Mitchell, K.: Impact of Atmospheric Surface-layer Parameterizations in the new Land-surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 85, 391–421, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1000531001463, 1997. 
Chen, K. and Yu, J.: Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach, Appl. Energ., 113, 690–705, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.025, 2014. 
Cheng, W. Y. Y., Liu, Y., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Mahoney, W. P., and Warner, T. T.: The impact of model physics on numerical wind forecasts, Renew. Energ., 55, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.12.041, 2013. 
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Short summary
The proposed wind speed correction model (VMD-PCA-RF) demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy and stability in the five southern provinces in nearly a year and at different heights. VMD-PCA-RF evaluation indices for 13 months remain relatively stable: the forecasting accuracy rate FA is above 85 %. In future research, the proposed VMD-PCA-RF algorithm can be extrapolated to the 3 km grid points of the five southern provinces to generate a 3 km grid-corrected wind speed product.
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