Articles | Volume 16, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4083-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4083-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
20 Jul 2023
Model evaluation paper |
| 20 Jul 2023
| 20 Jul 2023
Modeling river water temperature with limiting forcing data: Air2stream v1.0.0, machine learning and multiple regression
MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET – Aquatic
Research Network Associate Laboratory, NOVA School of Science and
Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, Caparica, Portugal
Pedro S. Coelho
MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET – Aquatic
Research Network Associate Laboratory, NOVA School of Science and
Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, Caparica, Portugal
Related authors
Manuel Almeida and Pedro Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-202, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the capabilities of the advanced CE-QUAL-W2 v4.5 sediment diagenesis model, focusing on its application to a reservoir in Portugal over a six-year period (2016–2021). Our findings indicate that the model performs very well in simulating dissolved oxygen profiles, nutrient concentrations, and organic matter levels.
Manuel C. Almeida, Yurii Shevchuk, Georgiy Kirillin, Pedro M. M. Soares, Rita M. Cardoso, José P. Matos, Ricardo M. Rebelo, António C. Rodrigues, and Pedro S. Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 173–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have evaluated the importance of the input of energy conveyed by river inflows into lakes and reservoirs when modeling surface water energy fluxes. Our results suggest that there is a strong correlation between water residence time and the surface water temperature prediction error and that the combined use of process-based physical models and machine-learning models will considerably improve the modeling of air–lake heat and moisture fluxes.
Manuel Almeida and Pedro Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-202, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to assess the capabilities of the advanced CE-QUAL-W2 v4.5 sediment diagenesis model, focusing on its application to a reservoir in Portugal over a six-year period (2016–2021). Our findings indicate that the model performs very well in simulating dissolved oxygen profiles, nutrient concentrations, and organic matter levels.
Manuel C. Almeida, Yurii Shevchuk, Georgiy Kirillin, Pedro M. M. Soares, Rita M. Cardoso, José P. Matos, Ricardo M. Rebelo, António C. Rodrigues, and Pedro S. Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 173–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we have evaluated the importance of the input of energy conveyed by river inflows into lakes and reservoirs when modeling surface water energy fluxes. Our results suggest that there is a strong correlation between water residence time and the surface water temperature prediction error and that the combined use of process-based physical models and machine-learning models will considerably improve the modeling of air–lake heat and moisture fluxes.
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios
NMH-CS 3.0: a C# programming language and Windows-system-based ecohydrological model derived from Noah-MP
A method for quantifying uncertainty in spatially interpolated meteorological data with application to daily maximum air temperature
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
From weather data to river runoff: using spatiotemporal convolutional networks for discharge forecasting
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: Integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions
A regional physical-biogeochemical ocean model for marine resource applications in the Northeast Pacific (MOM6-COBALT-NEP10k v1.0)
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with key physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for irrigation optimization to deliver co-benefits of ensuring food production, reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa Morrison, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G. Jacox, Kelly A. Kearney, Remi Pages, Darren J. Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-195, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We made a new regional ocean model to assist fisheries and ecosystem managers make decisions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP). We found that the model did well simulating past ocean conditions like temperature, and nutrient and oxygen levels, and can even reproduce metrics used by and important to ecosystem managers.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Cited articles
Abadi, M., Agarwal, A., Barham, P., Brevdo, E., Chen, Z., Citro, C.,
Corrado, G. S., Davis, A., Dean, J., Devin, M., Ghemawat, S., Goodfellow, I.
J., Harp, A., Irving, G., Isard, M., Jia, Y., Józefowicz, R., Kaiser,
L., Kudlur, M., Levenberg, J., Mane, D., Monga, R., Moore, S., Murray, D.
G., Olah, C., Schuster, M., Shlens, J., Steiner, B., Sutskever, I., Talwar,
K., 620 Tucker, P. A., Vanhoucke, V., Vasudevan, V., Viégas, F. B.,
Vinyals, O., Warden, P., Wattenberg, M., Wicke, M., Yu, Y., and Zheng, X.:
TensorFlow: Large-scale machine learning on heterogeneous distributed
systems, in: Proceedings of the 12th USENIX conference on Operating Systems
Design and Implementation, Savannah, GA, USA, 2–4 November 2016, 265–283,
https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/45166.pdf (last access: 17 July 2023), 2016.
Agrawal, A. and Petersen, M. R.: Detecting Arsenic Contamination Using
Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning, Toxics, 9, 333,
https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics9120333, 2021.
Ahmadi-Nedushan, B., St-Hilaire, A., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., Bilodeau, L.,
Robichaud, É., Thiémonge, N., and Bobée, B.: Predicting river
water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River
(Québec, Canada), Hydrol. Process., 21, 21–34,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6353, 2007.
Almeida, M. C. and Coelho, P. S.: mcvta/WaterPythonTemp: Release 0.2.0, Zenodo
[code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7870379, 2023.
Araújo, C. S. P., Silva, I. A. C., Ippolito, M., and Almeida, C. D.:
Evaluation of air temperature estimated by ERA5-Land reanalysis using
surface data in Pernambuco, Brazil. Environ. Monit. Assess., 194, 381,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10047-2, 2022.
Awad, M. and Khanna, R. (Eds.): Support vector regression, in: Efficient
learning machines, Springer, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4302-5990-9, 2015.
Bergstra, J., Yamins, D., and Cox, D. D.: Making a Science of Model Search:
Hyperparameter Optimization in Hundreds of Dimensions for Vision
Architectures, in: TProc. of the 30th International Conference on Machine
Learning (ICML 2013), 11523, https://doi.org/10.5555/3042817.3042832 (last access: 17 July 2023), 2013.
Branco, P., Ribeiro, R. P., and Torgo, L.: UBL: an R package for
utility-based learning. arXiv preprint, arXiv:1604.08079,
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1604.08079, 2016.
Branco, P., Ribeiro, R. P., Torgo, L., Krawczyk, B., and Moniz, N.: Smogn: a
pre-processing approach for imbalanced regression, Proc. Mach.
Learn. Res., 74, 36–50, 2017.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Caissie, D.: The thermal regime of rivers: a review, Freshwater Biol., 51,
1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, 2006.
Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Miranda, P. M. A., and Belo-Pereira, M.:
WRF High resolution simulation of Iberian mean and extreme precipitation
climate, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2591–2608,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3616, 2013.
Chenard, J.-F. and Caissie, D.: Stream temperature modelling using
artificial neural networks: application on Catamaran Brook, New Brunswick,
Canada, Hydrol. Process., 22, 3361–3372,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6928, 2008.
Crisp, D. T. and Howson, G.: Effect of air temperature upon mean water
temperature in streams in the north Pennines and English Lake District,
Freshwater Biol., 12, 359–367,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.1982.tb00629.x, 1982.
DeWeber, J. T. and Wagner, T.: A regional neural network ensemble for
predicting mean daily river water temperature, J. Hydrol., 517, 187–200,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.035, 2014.
Du, X., Shrestha, N. K., Ficklin, D. L., and Wang, J.: Incorporation of the equilibrium temperature approach in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydroclimatological stream temperature model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2343–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2343-2018, 2018.
Ducharne, A.: Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 797–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-797-2008, 2008.
Fahrer, C. and Harris, D., 2004. LAMPPOST A Mnemonic device for teaching
climate variables, J. Geogr., 103, 86–90,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00221340408978579, 2004.
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S.,
Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S.,
Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf,
D.: The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007.
Feigl, M., Lebiedzinski, K., Herrnegger, M., and Schulz, K.: Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021.
Gallice, A., Schaefli, B., Lehning, M., Parlange, M. B., and Huwald, H.: Stream temperature prediction in ungauged basins: review of recent approaches and description of a new physics-derived statistical model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3727–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3727-2015, 2015.
Jeppesen, E. and Iversen, T. M.: Two Simple Models for Estimating
Daily Mean Water Temperatures and Diel Variations in a Danish Low Gradient
Stream, Oikos, 49, 149–155, https://doi.org/10.2307/3566020, 1987.
Jourdonnais, J. H., Walsh, R. P., Pickett, F., and Goodman D.: Structure and
calibration strategy for a water temperature model of the lower Madison
River, Montana, Rivers, 3, 153–169, 1992.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M., and Paulin, M.: Runoff conditions in the upper Danube
basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 424–425,
264–277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.011, 2012.
Louppe, G.: Understanding Random Forests: From Theory to Practice, arXiv
2014, arXiv:1407.7502, 28 July 2014.
Lu, H. and Ma, X.: Hybrid decision tree-based machine learning models for
short-term water quality prediction, Chemosphere, 249, 126169,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.126169, 2020.
Macedo, M. N., Coe, M. T., DeFries, R., Uriarte, M., Brando, P. M., Neill,
C., and Walker, W. S.: Land-use-driven stream warming in southeastern
Amazonia, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 368, 1619,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0153, 2013.
Mackey, A. P. and Berrie, A. D.: The prediction of water temperatures in
chalk streams from air temperatures, Hydrobiologia, 210, 183–189,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00034676, 1991.
Mohseni, O., Stefan, H. G., and Erickson, T. R.: A nonlinear regression
model for weekly stream temperatures, Water Resour. Res., 10,
2685–2692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877, 1998.
Mohseni, O., Erickson T. R., and Stefan, H. G.: Upper bounds for stream
temperatures in the contiguous United States, Journal of Environmental
Engineering, Am. Soc. Civil Eng., 128, 4–11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877, 2002.
Moore, R. D., Spittlehouse, D. L., and Story, A.: Riparian microclimate and
stream temperature response to forest harvesting: a review, J. Am. Water
Resour. As., 41, 813–834,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03772.x, 2005.
Moore, R. D., Nelitz, M., and Parkinson, E.: Empirical modelling of maximum
weekly average stream temperature in British Columbia, Canada, to support
assessment of fish habitat suitability, Can. Water Resour. J., 38, 135–147,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2013.794992, 2013.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R.
D., and Veith, T. L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic
quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, T.
ASABE, 50, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153, 2007.
Muñoz-Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1981 to present,
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set],
https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019.
Muñoz-Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to 1980, Copernicus
Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2021.
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Agustí-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Choulga, M., Harrigan, S., Hersbach, H., Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Piles, M., Rodríguez-Fernández, N. J., Zsoter, E., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models: Part 1. A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Neumann, D., W., Balaji, R., and Zagona E., A.: 2011, Regression model for
daily maximum stream temperature, J. Environ. Eng., 129,
667–674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), 2003.
Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A, Michel, V., Thirion, B., Grisel,
O., Blondel, M., Prettenhofer, P., Weiss, R., Dubourg, V., Vanderplas, J.,
Passos, A., Cournapeau, D., Brucher, M., Perrot, M., and Duchesnay, E.:
Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12, 2825–2830,
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1201.0490, 2011.
Piccolroaz, S.: Prediction of lake surface temperature using air 2stream
model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives, Adv.
Oceanogr. Limnol., 7, 36–50,
https://doi.org/10.4081/aiol.2016.5791, 2016.
Piotrowski, A. P., Napiorkowski, M. J., Napiorkowski, J. J., and Osuch, M.:
Comparing various artificial neural types for water temperature prediction
in rivers, J. Hydrol., 529, 302–315,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.07.044, 2015.
Platt, J.: Sequential Minimal Optimization: A Fast Algorithm for Training
Support Vector Machines, Microsoft, Open File Rep., MSR-TR-98-14, 98–14, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/sequential-minimal-optimization-a-fast-algorithm-for-training-support-vector-machines/ (last access: 19 July 2023), 1998.
Qian, N.: On the momentum term in gradient descent learning algorithms,
Neural Networks, 12, 145–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0893-6080(98)00116-6,
1999.
Rabi, A., Hadzima-Nyarko, M., and Šperac, M.: Modelling river
temperature from air temperature: case of the River Drava (Croatia),
Hydrol. Sci. J., 60, 1490–1507,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.914215, 2015.
Rajesh, M. and Rehana, S.: Prediction of river water temperature using
machine learning algorithms: a tropical river system of India, J.
Hydroinform., 23, 605–626, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2021.121,
2021.
Rehana, S.: River water temperature modelling under climate change using
support vector regression, in: Hydrology in a Changing World: Challenges in
Modeling, edited by: Singh, S. K. and Dhanya, C. T., World Springer,
171–183, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02197-9_8, 2019.
Rehana, S. and Mujumdar, P. P.: River water quality response under
hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra river, India,
Hydrol. Process., 25, 3373–3386, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8057,
2011.
Segura, C., Caldwell, P., Sun, G., McNulty, S., and Zhang, Y.: A model to
predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA, Hydrol.
Process., 29, 2178–2195, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10357, 2014.
Shevchuk, Y.: Python library, https://neupy.com/pages/home.html, last
access: 7 July 2022.
Shi, Y. and Eberhart, R. C.: A modified particle swarm optimizer, in:
International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Proceedings, IEEE World
Congress on Computational Intelligence (Cat. No.98TH8360), 69–73,
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEC.1998.699146, 1998.
Sinokrot, B. A. and Stefan, H. G.: Stream temperature dynamics:
measurements and modeling, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2299–2312, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR00540, 1993.
Smith, K.: River water temperatures - an environmental review, Scottish
Geographical Magazine, 88, 211–220,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00369227208736229, 1972.
Smith K.: The prediction of river water temperatures, Hydrol. Sci.
Bull., 26, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668109490859, 1981.
Smith, K. and Lavis, M. E.: Environmental influences on the temperature of
a small upland stream, Oikos, 26, 228–236, 1975.
SMOGN: Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Regression with
Gaussian Noise, GitHub repository [code], https://github.com/nickkunz/smogn (last access: 17 July 2023), 2022.
Smola, A. J. and Schölkopf, B. A.: tutorial on support vector
regression, Stat. Comput., 14, 199–222,
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:STCO.0000035301.49549.88, 2004.
Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R. M., Medeiros, J., Miranda, P. M. A.,
Belo-Pereira, M., and Espirito-Santo, F.: WRF High resolution dynamical
downscaling of ERA-Interim for Portugal, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2497–2522,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1315-2#Bib1, 2012.
Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R. M., Ferreira, J. J., and Miranda, P. M. A.:
Climate change and the Portuguese precipitation: ENSEMBLES regional climate
models results, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1771–1787,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2432-x, 2015.
Srivastava, N., Hinton, G., Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., and
Salakhutdinov, R.: Dropout: a simple way to prevent neural networks from
overfitting, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 15, 1929–1958, 2014.
Temez, J. R.: Calculo hidrometeorologico de caudales maximos em pequeñas
cuencas naturales, Madrid: Ministério de Obras 790 Publicas y Urbanismo
(MOPU), Direccion General de Carreteras, 12, 1978.
Temizyurek, M. and Dadaser-Celik, F.: Modelling the effects of
meteorological parameters on water temperature using artificial neural
networks, Water Sci. Technol., 77, 1724–1733,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2018.058, 2018.
Toffolon, M. and Piccolroaz, S.: A hybrid model for river water temperature
as a function of air temperature and discharge, Environ. Res.
Lett., 10, 114011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114011, 2015.
Torgo, L., Ribeiro, R. P., Pfahringer, B., and Branco, P.: Smote for regression,
in: Progress in Artificial Intelligence, Springer, 378–389, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40669-0_33, 2013.
Torgo, L., Branco, P., Ribeiro, R. P., and Pfahringer, B.: Resampling
strategies for regression, Expert Systems, 32, 465–476,
https://doi.org/10.1111/exsy.12081, 2015.
Vanella D., Longo-Minnolo, G., Belfiore, O.R. Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.,
Pappalardo, S., Consoli, S., D'Urso, G.,Chirico, G.B.,Coppola, A., Comegna,
A. Toscano, T., Quarta, R., Provenzano, G., Ippolito, M., Castagna, A., and
Gandolfi, C.: Comparing the use of ERA5 reanalysis dataset and ground-based
agrometeorological data under different climates and topography in Italy, J.
Hydrol., 42, 101182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101182, 2022.
Walling, D. E. and Webb, B. W.: Water quality. I. Physical characteristics,
in: The rivers Handbook. I. Hydrological and ecological principles, edited
by: Calow, P. and Petts, G. E., Blackwell Scientific Publs., Oxford, 48–72,
ISBN 978-1-444-31386-4, 1993.
Wang, B., Spessa, A., Feng, P., Hou, X., Yue, C., Luo, J.-J., Ciais, P.,
Waters, C., Cowie, A., Nolan, R. H., Nikonovas, T., Jin, H., Walshaw, H.,
Wei, J., Guo, X., Liu, D. L., and Yu, Q.: Extreme Fire Weather Is The Major
Driver Of Severe Bushfires In Southeast Australia, Sci. Bull., 67,
655–664, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.001, 2021.
Webb, B. W. and Nobilis, F.: A long-term perspective on the nature of the
air-water temperature relationship: a case study, Hydrol. Process.,
11, 137–147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, 1997.
Webb, B. W., Clark, P. D., and Walling, D. E.: Water-air temperature
relationships in a Devon river system and the role of flow, Hydrol.
Process., 17, 3069–3084, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1280, 2003.
Wetzel, R. G. (Ed.): Limnology. Lake and River Ecosystems, Third Edition, Academic Press, ISBN 9780127447605, 2001.
Younus, M., Hondzo, M., and Engel, B. A.: Stream Temperature Dynamics in
Upland Agricultural Watershed, J. Environ. Eng., 126,
518–526, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2000)126:6(518), 2000.
Zhao, P. and He, Z.: A First Evaluation of ERA5-Land Reanalysis Temperature
Product Over the Chinese Qilian Mountains, Front. Earth Sci., 10, 907730,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.907730, 2022.
Zhu, S., Nyarko, E. K., and Hadzima-Nyarko, M.: Modelling daily water
temperature from air temperature for the Missouri River, PeerJ, 6, e4894,
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4894, 2018.
Zhu, S., Hadzima-Nyarko, M., Gao, A., Wang, F., Wu, J., and Wu, S.: Two
hybrid data-driven models for modeling water-air temperature relationship in
rivers, Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 26, 12622–12630,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04716-y, 2019a.
Zhu, S., Heddam, S., Nyarko, E. K., Hadzima-Nyarko, M., Piccolroaz, S., and
Wu, S.: Modeling daily water temperature for rivers: comparison between
adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural networks
models, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 26, 402–420,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3650-2, 2019b.
Zhu, S., Heddam, S., Wu, S., Dai, J., and Jia, B.: Extreme learning
machine-based prediction of daily water temperature for rivers,
Environ. Earth Sci., 78, 202,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8202-7, 2019c.
Zhu, S., Nyarko, E. K., Hadzima-Nyarko, M., Heddam, S., and Wu, S.:
Assessing the performance of a suite of machine learning models for daily
river water temperature prediction, PeerJ, 7, e7065,
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7065, 2019d.
Short summary
Water temperature (WT) datasets of low-order rivers are scarce. In this study, five different models are used to predict the WT of 83 rivers. Generally, the results show that the models' hyperparameter optimization is essential and that to minimize the prediction error it is relevant to apply all the models considered in this study. Results also show that there is a logarithmic correlation among the error of the predicted river WT and the watershed time of concentration.
Water temperature (WT) datasets of low-order rivers are scarce. In this study, five different...
