Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-271-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-271-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
HIDRA2: deep-learning ensemble sea level and storm tide forecasting in the presence of seiches – the case of the northern Adriatic
Marko Rus
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Visual Cognitive Systems Lab, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Anja Fettich
Slovenian Environment Agency, Office for Meteorology, Hydrology and Oceanography, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Matej Kristan
Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Visual Cognitive Systems Lab, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Matjaž Ličer
Slovenian Environment Agency, Office for Meteorology, Hydrology and Oceanography, Ljubljana, Slovenia
National Institute of Biology, Marine Biology Station, Piran, Slovenia
Related authors
Amirhossein Barzandeh, Marko Rus, Matjaž Ličer, Ilja Maljutenko, Jüri Elken, Priidik Lagemaa, and Rivo Uiboupin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated a deep-learning model, HIDRA2, for predicting sea levels along the Estonian coast and compared it to traditional numerical models. HIDRA2 performed better overall, offering faster forecasts and valuable uncertainty estimates using ensemble predictions.
Marko Rus, Hrvoje Mihanović, Matjaž Ličer, and Matej Kristan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2068, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HIDRA3 is a novel deep-learning model for predicting sea levels and storm surges, offering significant improvements over previous models and numerical simulations. It utilizes data from multiple tide gauges, enhancing predictions even with limited historical data and during sensor outages. With its advanced architecture, HIDRA3 outperforms the current state-of-the-art models by achieving up to 15 % lower mean absolute error, proving effective for coastal flood forecasting in diverse conditions.
Amirhossein Barzandeh, Marko Rus, Matjaž Ličer, Ilja Maljutenko, Jüri Elken, Priidik Lagemaa, and Rivo Uiboupin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3691, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated a deep-learning model, HIDRA2, for predicting sea levels along the Estonian coast and compared it to traditional numerical models. HIDRA2 performed better overall, offering faster forecasts and valuable uncertainty estimates using ensemble predictions.
Marko Rus, Hrvoje Mihanović, Matjaž Ličer, and Matej Kristan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2068, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
HIDRA3 is a novel deep-learning model for predicting sea levels and storm surges, offering significant improvements over previous models and numerical simulations. It utilizes data from multiple tide gauges, enhancing predictions even with limited historical data and during sensor outages. With its advanced architecture, HIDRA3 outperforms the current state-of-the-art models by achieving up to 15 % lower mean absolute error, proving effective for coastal flood forecasting in diverse conditions.
Peter Mlakar, Antonio Ricchi, Sandro Carniel, Davide Bonaldo, and Matjaž Ličer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4705–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new point-prediction model, the DEep Learning WAVe Emulating model (DELWAVE), which successfully emulates the Simulating WAves Nearshore model (SWAN) over synoptic to climate timescales. Compared to control climatology over all wind directions, the mismatch between DELWAVE and SWAN is generally small compared to the difference between scenario and control conditions, suggesting that the noise introduced by surrogate modelling is substantially weaker than the climate change signal.
Nydia Catalina Reyes Suárez, Valentina Tirelli, Laura Ursella, Matjaž Ličer, Massimo Celio, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 1321–1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1321-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Explaining the dynamics of jellyfish blooms is a challenge for scientists. Biological and meteo-oceanographic data were combined on different timescales to explain the exceptional bloom of the jellyfish Rhizostoma pulmo in the Gulf of Trieste (Adriatic Sea) in April 2021. The bloom was associated with anomalously warm seasonal sea conditions. Then, a strong bora wind event enhanced upwelling and mixing of the water column, causing jellyfish to rise to the surface and accumulate along the coast.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Emma Reyes, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Vanessa Cardin, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Maria J. Fernandes, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Pablo Lorente, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Adèle Révelard, Catalina Reyes-Suárez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Alejandro Orfila
Ocean Sci., 18, 797–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work reviews the existing advanced and emerging scientific and societal applications using HFR data, developed to address the major challenges identified in Mediterranean coastal waters organized around three main topics: maritime safety, extreme hazards and environmental transport processes. It also includes a discussion and preliminary assessment of the capabilities of existing HFR applications, finally providing a set of recommendations towards setting out future prospects.
Pablo Lorente, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Adèle Révelard, Emma Reyes, Jorge Sánchez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Laura Ursella, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 761–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-frequency radar (HFR) is a land-based remote sensing technology that can provide maps of the surface circulation over broad coastal areas, along with wave and wind information. The main goal of this work is to showcase the current status of the Mediterranean HFR network as well as present and future applications of this sensor for societal benefit such as search and rescue operations, safe vessel navigation, tracking of marine pollutants, and the monitoring of extreme events.
Lojze Žust, Anja Fettich, Matej Kristan, and Matjaž Ličer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2057–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2057-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Adriatic basin sea level modelling is a challenging problem due to the interplay between terrain, weather, tides and seiches. Current state-of-the-art numerical models (e.g. NEMO) require large computational resources to produce reliable forecasts. In this study we propose HIDRA, a novel deep learning approach for sea level modeling, which drastically reduces the numerical cost while demonstrating predictive capabilities comparable to that of the NEMO model, outperforming it in many instances.
Matjaž Ličer, Solène Estival, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Davide Deponte, and Anja Fettich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2335–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 2018 windsurfer’s mast broke about 1 km offshore during a scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic. He was drifting in severe conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory. We simulate his trajectory in several ways and estimate the optimal search-and-rescue area for a civil rescue response. Properly calibrated virtual drifter properties are key to reliable rescue area forecasting.
Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Matjaz Licer, and Jean-Marie Beckers
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1609–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
DINCAE is a method for reconstructing missing data in satellite datasets using a neural network. Satellite observations working in the optical and infrared bands are affected by clouds, which obscure part of the ocean underneath. In this paper, a neural network with the structure of a convolutional auto-encoder is developed to reconstruct the missing data based on the available cloud-free pixels in satellite images.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
M. Ličer, P. Smerkol, A. Fettich, M. Ravdas, A. Papapostolou, A. Mantziafou, B. Strajnar, J. Cedilnik, M. Jeromel, J. Jerman, S. Petan, V. Malačič, and S. Sofianos
Ocean Sci., 12, 71–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-71-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the northern Adriatic response to an extreme bora event, as simulated by one-way and two-way (i.e. with ocean feedback to the atmosphere) atmosphere-ocean coupling. We show that two-way coupling yields significantly better estimates of heat fluxes, most notably sensible heat flux, across the air-sea interface. When compared to observations in the northern Adriatic, two-way coupled system consequently leads to a better representation of ocean temperatures throughout the event.
Related subject area
Oceanography
Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling
An optimal transformation method for inferring ocean tracer sources and sinks
PPCon 1.0: Biogeochemical-Argo profile prediction with 1D convolutional networks
Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)
Development of a total variation diminishing (TVD) sea ice transport scheme and its application in an ocean (SCHISM v5.11) and sea ice (Icepack v1.3.4) coupled model on unstructured grids
Spurious numerical mixing under strong tidal forcing: a case study in the south-east Asian seas using the Symphonie model (v3.1.2)
Modelling the water isotope distribution in the Mediterranean Sea using a high-resolution oceanic model (NEMO-MED12-watiso v1.0): evaluation of model results against in situ observations
LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry
Towards a real-time modeling of global ocean waves by the fully GPU-accelerated spectral wave model WAM6-GPU v1.0
A simple approach to represent precipitation-derived freshwater fluxes into nearshore ocean models: an FVCOM4.1 case study of Quatsino Sound, British Columbia
An optimal transformation method applied to diagnose the ocean carbon budget
Implementation and assessment of a model including mixotrophs and the carbonate cycle (Eco3M_MIX-CarbOx v1.0) in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal environment (Bay of Marseille, France) – Part 2: Towards a better representation of total alkalinity when modeling the carbonate system and air–sea CO2 fluxes
DALROMS-NWA12 v1.0, a coupled circulation-ice-biogeochemistry modelling system for the northwest Atlantic Ocean: Development and validation
Development of a novel storm surge inundation model framework for efficient prediction
Skin sea surface temperature schemes in coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling: the impact of chlorophyll-interactive e-folding depth
A wave-resolving 2DV Lagrangian approach to model microplastic transport in the nearshore
DELWAVE 1.0: deep learning surrogate model of surface wave climate in the Adriatic Basin
StraitFlux – precise computations of water strait fluxes on various modeling grids
Comparison of the Coastal and Regional Ocean COmmunity model (CROCO) and NCAR-LES in non-hydrostatic simulations
HOTSSea v1: a NEMO-based physical Hindcast of the Salish Sea (1980–2018) supporting ecosystem model development
Intercomparisons of Tracker v1.1 and four other ocean particle-tracking software packages in the Regional Ocean Modeling System
CAR36, a regional high-resolution ocean forecasting system for improving drift and beaching of Sargassum in the Caribbean archipelago
Implementation of additional spectral wave field exchanges in a three-dimensional wave–current coupled WAVEWATCH-III (version 6.07) and CROCO (version 1.2) configuration: assessment of their implications for macro-tidal coastal hydrodynamics
Comparison of 4-dimensional variational and ensemble optimal interpolation data assimilation systems using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (v3.4) configuration of the eddy-dominated East Australian Current system
LOCATE v1.0: numerical modelling of floating marine debris dispersion in coastal regions using Parcels v2.4.2
New insights into the South China Sea throughflow and water budget seasonal cycle: evaluation and analysis of a high-resolution configuration of the ocean model SYMPHONIE version 2.4
MQGeometry-1.0: a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic solver on non-rectangular geometries
Parameter estimation for ocean background vertical diffusivity coefficients in the Community Earth System Model (v1.2.1) and its impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation forecasts
A revised ocean mixed layer model for better simulating the diurnal variation of ocean skin temperature
Great Lakes wave forecast system on high-resolution unstructured meshes
Impact of increased resolution on Arctic Ocean simulations in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)
A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0)
A flexible z-layers approach for the accurate representation of free surface flows in a coastal ocean model (SHYFEM v. 7_5_71)
Implementation and assessment of a model including mixotrophs and the carbonate cycle (Eco3M_MIX-CarbOx v1.0) in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal environment (Bay of Marseille, France) – Part 1: Evolution of ecosystem composition under limited light and nutrient conditions
Ocean wave tracing v.1: a numerical solver of the wave ray equations for ocean waves on variable currents at arbitrary depths
Design and evaluation of an efficient high-precision ocean surface wave model with a multiscale grid system (MSG_Wav1.0)
Evaluation of the CMCC global eddying ocean model for the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP2)
Barents-2.5km v2.0: an operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard
Open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O, version icon-2.6.6
Using Probability Density Functions to Evaluate Models (PDFEM, v1.0) to compare a biogeochemical model with satellite-derived chlorophyll
Data assimilation sensitivity experiments in the East Auckland Current system using 4D-Var
Using the COAsT Python package to develop a standardised validation workflow for ocean physics models
Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications
Formulation, optimization, and sensitivity of NitrOMZv1.0, a biogeochemical model of the nitrogen cycle in oceanic oxygen minimum zones
Waves in SKRIPS: WAVEWATCH III coupling implementation and a case study of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu
Adding sea ice effects to a global operational model (NEMO v3.6) for forecasting total water level: approach and impact
Enhanced ocean wave modeling by including effect of breaking under both deep- and shallow-water conditions
An internal solitary wave forecasting model in the northern South China Sea (ISWFM-NSCS)
The 3D biogeochemical marine mercury cycling model MERCY v2.0 – linking atmospheric Hg to methylmercury in fish
Global seamless tidal simulation using a 3D unstructured-grid model (SCHISM v5.10.0)
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Jan D. Zika and Taimoor Sohail
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8049–8068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a method to relate fluxes of heat and freshwater at the sea surface to the resulting distribution of seawater among categories such as warm and salty or cold and salty. The method exploits the laws that govern how heat and salt change when water mixes. The method will allow the climate community to improve estimates of how much heat the ocean is absorbing and how rainfall and evaporation are changing across the globe.
Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7347–7364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the ocean is essential for studying marine life and human impact. Our new software, PPCon, uses ocean data to predict key factors like nitrate and chlorophyll levels, which are hard to measure directly. By leveraging machine learning, PPCon offers more accurate and efficient predictions.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Qian Wang, Yang Zhang, Fei Chai, Y. Joseph Zhang, and Lorenzo Zampieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7067–7081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled an unstructured hydro-model with an advanced column sea ice model to meet the growing demand for increased resolution and complexity in unstructured sea ice models. Additionally, we present a novel tracer transport scheme for the sea ice coupled model and demonstrate that this scheme fulfills the requirements for conservation, accuracy, efficiency, and monotonicity in an idealized test. Our new coupled model also has good performance in realistic tests.
Adrien Garinet, Marine Herrmann, Patrick Marsaleix, and Juliette Pénicaud
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6967–6986, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6967-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6967-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mixing is a crucial aspect of the ocean, but its accurate representation in computer simulations is made challenging by errors that result in unwanted mixing, compromising simulation realism. Here we illustrate the spurious effect that tides can have on simulations of south-east Asia. Although they play an important role in determining the state of the ocean, they can increase numerical errors and make simulation outputs less realistic. We also provide insights into how to reduce these errors.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Anne Mouchet, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Camille Risi, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6627–6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water isotopes (δ18O, δD) are one of the most widely used proxies in ocean climate research. Previous studies using water isotope observations and modelling have highlighted the importance of understanding spatial and temporal isotopic variability for a quantitative interpretation of these tracers. Here we present the first results of a high-resolution regional dynamical model (at 1/12° horizontal resolution) developed for the Mediterranean Sea, one of the hotspots of ongoing climate change.
Cara Nissen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Mathew Maltrud, Alison R. Gray, Yohei Takano, Kristen Falcinelli, Jade Sauvé, and Katherine Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6415–6435, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Autonomous profiling floats have provided unprecedented observational coverage of the global ocean, but uncertainties remain about whether their sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability of physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. Here, we present the novel synthetic biogeochemical float capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 and demonstrate their utility as a test bed to address these uncertainties.
Ye Yuan, Fujiang Yu, Zhi Chen, Xueding Li, Fang Hou, Yuanyong Gao, Zhiyi Gao, and Renbo Pang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6123–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate and timely forecasting of ocean waves is of great importance to the safety of marine transportation and offshore engineering. In this study, GPU-accelerated computing is introduced in WAve Modeling Cycle 6 (WAM6). With this effort, global high-resolution wave simulations can now run on GPUs up to tens of times faster than the currently available models can on a CPU node with results that are just as accurate.
Krysten Rutherford, Laura Bianucci, and William Floyd
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6083–6104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6083-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6083-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nearshore ocean models often lack complete information about freshwater fluxes due to numerous ungauged rivers and streams. We tested a simple rain-based hydrological model as inputs into an ocean model of Quatsino Sound, Canada, with the aim of improving the representation of the land–ocean connection in the nearshore model. Through multiple tests, we found that the performance of the ocean model improved when providing 60 % or more of the freshwater inputs from the simple runoff model.
Neill Mackay, Taimoor Sohail, Jan David Zika, Richard G. Williams, Oliver Andrews, and Andrew James Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, mitigating climate change, but estimates of the uptake do not always agree. There is a need to reconcile these differing estimates and to improve our understanding of ocean carbon uptake. We present a new method for estimating ocean carbon uptake and test it with model data. The method effectively diagnoses the ocean carbon uptake from limited data and therefore shows promise for reconciling different observational estimates.
Lucille Barré, Frédéric Diaz, Thibaut Wagener, Camille Mazoyer, Christophe Yohia, and Christel Pinazo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5851–5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The carbonate system is typically studied using measurements, but modeling can contribute valuable insights. Using a biogeochemical model, we propose a new representation of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pCO2, and pH in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal area, the Bay of Marseille, a useful addition to measurements. Through a detailed analysis of pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes, we show that variations are strongly impacted by the hydrodynamic processes that affect the bay.
Kyoko Ohashi, Arnaud Laurent, Christoph Renkl, Jinyu Sheng, Katja Fennel, and Eric Oliver
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1372, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a modelling system of the northwest Atlantic Ocean that simulates the currents, temperature, salinity, and parts of the biochemical cycle of the ocean, as well as sea ice. The system combines advanced, open-source models and can be used to study, for example, the oceans’ capture of atmospheric carbon dioxide which is a key process in the global climate. The system produces realistic results, and we use it to investigate the roles of tides and sea ice in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.
Xuanxuan Gao, Shuiqing Li, Dongxue Mo, Yahao Liu, and Po Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5497–5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm surges generate coastal inundation and expose populations and properties to danger. We developed a novel storm surge inundation model for efficient prediction. Estimates compare well with in situ measurements and results from a numerical model. The new model is a significant improvement on existing numerical models, with much higher computational efficiency and stability, which allows timely disaster prevention and mitigation.
Vincenzo de Toma, Daniele Ciani, Yassmin Hesham Essa, Chunxue Yang, Vincenzo Artale, Andrea Pisano, Davide Cavaliere, Rosalia Santoleri, and Andrea Storto
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5145–5165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores methods to reconstruct diurnal variations in skin sea surface temperature in a model of the Mediterranean Sea. Our new approach, considering chlorophyll concentration, enhances spatial and temporal variations in the warm layer. Comparative analysis shows context-dependent improvements. The proposed "chlorophyll-interactive" method brings the surface net total heat flux closer to zero annually, despite a net heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere.
Isabel Jalón-Rojas, Damien Sous, and Vincent Marieu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-100, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel modeling approach for understanding microplastic transport in coastal waters. The model accurately replicates experimental data and reveals key transport mechanisms. The findings enhance our knowledge of how microplastics move in nearshore environments, aiding in coastal management and efforts to combat plastic pollution globally.
Peter Mlakar, Antonio Ricchi, Sandro Carniel, Davide Bonaldo, and Matjaž Ličer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4705–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new point-prediction model, the DEep Learning WAVe Emulating model (DELWAVE), which successfully emulates the Simulating WAves Nearshore model (SWAN) over synoptic to climate timescales. Compared to control climatology over all wind directions, the mismatch between DELWAVE and SWAN is generally small compared to the difference between scenario and control conditions, suggesting that the noise introduced by surrogate modelling is substantially weaker than the climate change signal.
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4603–4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic transports shape the global climate, but the evaluation and validation of this key quantity based on reanalysis and model data are complicated by the distortion of the used modelling grids and the large number of different grid types. We present two new methods that allow the calculation of oceanic fluxes of volume, heat, salinity, and ice through almost arbitrary sections for various models and reanalyses that are independent of the used modelling grids.
Xiaoyu Fan, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Nobuhiro Suzuki, Qing Li, Patrick Marchesiello, Peter P. Sullivan, and Paul S. Hall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4095–4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of the oceanic turbulent boundary layer using the nonhydrostatic CROCO ROMS and NCAR-LES models are compared. CROCO and the NCAR-LES are accurate in a similar manner, but CROCO’s additional features (e.g., nesting and realism) and its compressible turbulence formulation carry additional costs.
Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen, and Michael Dunphy
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-58, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a physical ocean model called the Hindcast of the Salish Sea (HOTSSea) that recreates conditions throughout the Salish Sea from 1980 to 2018, filling in the gaps in patchy measurements. The model predicts physical ocean properties with sufficient accuracy to be useful for a variety of applications. The model corroborates observed ocean temperature trends and was used to examine areas with few observations. Results indicate that some seasons and areas are warming faster than others.
Jilian Xiong and Parker MacCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The new offline particle tracking package, Tracker v1.1, is introduced to the Regional Ocean Modeling System, featuring an efficient nearest-neighbor algorithm to enhance particle-tracking speed. Its performance was evaluated against four other tracking packages and passive dye. Despite unique features, all packages yield comparable results. Running multiple packages within the same circulation model allows comparison of their performance and ease of use.
Sylvain Cailleau, Laurent Bessières, Léonel Chiendje, Flavie Dubost, Guillaume Reffray, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Simon van Gennip, Charly Régnier, Marie Drevillon, Marc Tressol, Matthieu Clavier, Julien Temple-Boyer, and Léo Berline
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3157–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to improve Sargassum drift forecasting in the Caribbean area, drift models can be forced by higher-resolution ocean currents. To this goal a 3 km resolution regional ocean model has been developed. Its assessment is presented with a particular focus on the reproduction of fine structures representing key features of the Caribbean region dynamics and Sargassum transport. The simulated propagation of a North Brazil Current eddy and its dissipation was found to be quite realistic.
Gaetano Porcile, Anne-Claire Bennis, Martial Boutet, Sophie Le Bot, Franck Dumas, and Swen Jullien
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2829–2853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2829-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2829-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here a new method of modelling the interaction between ocean currents and waves is presented. We developed an advanced coupling of two models, one for ocean currents and one for waves. In previous couplings, some wave-related calculations were based on simplified assumptions. Our method uses more complex calculations to better represent wave–current interactions. We tested it in a macro-tidal coastal area and found that it significantly improves the model accuracy, especially during storms.
Colette Gabrielle Kerry, Moninya Roughan, Shane Keating, David Gwyther, Gary Brassington, Adil Siripatana, and Joao Marcos A. C. Souza
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2359–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean forecasting relies on the combination of numerical models and ocean observations through data assimilation (DA). Here we assess the performance of two DA systems in a dynamic western boundary current, the East Australian Current, across a common modelling and observational framework. We show that the more advanced, time-dependent method outperforms the time-independent method for forecast horizons of 5 d. This advocates the use of advanced methods for highly variable oceanic regions.
Ivan Hernandez, Leidy M. Castro-Rosero, Manuel Espino, and Jose M. Alsina Torrent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2221–2245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2221-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2221-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The LOCATE numerical model was developed to conduct Lagrangian simulations of the transport and dispersion of marine debris at coastal scales. High-resolution hydrodynamic data and a beaching module that used particle distance to the shore for land–water boundary detection were used on a realistic debris discharge scenario comparing hydrodynamic data at various resolutions. Coastal processes and complex geometric structures were resolved when using nested grids and distance-to-shore beaching.
Ngoc B. Trinh, Marine Herrmann, Caroline Ulses, Patrick Marsaleix, Thomas Duhaut, Thai To Duy, Claude Estournel, and R. Kipp Shearman
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1831–1867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1831-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution model was built to study the South China Sea (SCS) water, heat, and salt budgets. Model performance is demonstrated by comparison with observations and simulations. Important discards are observed if calculating offline, instead of online, lateral inflows and outflows of water, heat, and salt. The SCS mainly receives water from the Luzon Strait and releases it through the Mindoro, Taiwan, and Karimata straits. SCS surface interocean water exchanges are driven by monsoon winds.
Louis Thiry, Long Li, Guillaume Roullet, and Etienne Mémin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1749–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1749-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1749-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new way of solving the quasi-geostrophic (QG) equations, a simple set of equations describing ocean dynamics. Our method is solely based on the numerical methods used to solve the equations and requires no parameter tuning. Moreover, it can handle non-rectangular geometries, opening the way to study QG equations on realistic domains. We release a PyTorch implementation to ease future machine-learning developments on top of the presented method.
Zheqi Shen, Yihao Chen, Xiaojing Li, and Xunshu Song
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1651–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Parameter estimation is the process that optimizes model parameters using observations, which could reduce model errors and improve forecasting. In this study, we conducted parameter estimation experiments using the CESM and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. The obtained initial conditions and parameters are used to perform ensemble forecast experiments for ENSO forecasting. The results revealed that parameter estimation could reduce analysis errors and improve ENSO forecast skills.
Eui-Jong Kang, Byung-Ju Sohn, Sang-Woo Kim, Wonho Kim, Young-Cheol Kwon, Seung-Bum Kim, Hyoung-Wook Chun, and Chao Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-23, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The recently available ERA5 hourly ocean skin temperature (Tint) data is expected to be valuable for various science studies. However, when analyzing the hourly variations of Tint, questions arise about its reliability, the deficiency of which may be related to errors in the ocean mixed layer (OML) model. To address this, we reexamined and corrected significant errors in the OML model. Validation of the simulated SST using the revised OML model against observations demonstrated good agreement.
Ali Abdolali, Saeideh Banihashemi, Jose Henrique Alves, Aron Roland, Tyler J. Hesser, Mary Anderson Bryant, and Jane McKee Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1023–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1023-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents an overview of the development and implementation of Great Lake Wave Unstructured (GLWUv2.0), including the core model and workflow design and development. The validation was conducted against in situ data for the re-forecasted duration for summer and wintertime (ice season). The article describes the limitations and challenges encountered in the operational environment and the path forward for the next generation of wave forecast systems in enclosed basins like the GL.
Qiang Wang, Qi Shu, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Nikolay Koldunov, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Hailong Liu, Igor Polyakov, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Shizhu Wang, and Xiaobiao Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 347–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing resolution improves model skills in simulating the Arctic Ocean, but other factors such as parameterizations and numerics are at least of the same importance for obtaining reliable simulations.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6899–6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
Lucille Barré, Frédéric Diaz, Thibaut Wagener, France Van Wambeke, Camille Mazoyer, Christophe Yohia, and Christel Pinazo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6701–6739, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
While several studies have shown that mixotrophs play a crucial role in the carbon cycle, the impact of environmental forcings on their dynamics remains poorly investigated. Using a biogeochemical model that considers mixotrophs, we study the impact of light and nutrient concentration on the ecosystem composition in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal area: the Bay of Marseille. We show that mixotrophs cope better with oligotrophic conditions compared to strict auto- and heterotrophs.
Trygve Halsne, Kai Håkon Christensen, Gaute Hope, and Øyvind Breivik
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6515–6530, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Surface waves that propagate in oceanic or coastal environments get influenced by their surroundings. Changes in the ambient current or the depth profile affect the wave propagation path, and the change in wave direction is called refraction. Some analytical solutions to the governing equations exist under ideal conditions, but for realistic situations, the equations must be solved numerically. Here we present such a numerical solver under an open-source license.
Jiangyu Li, Shaoqing Zhang, Qingxiang Liu, Xiaolin Yu, and Zhiwei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6393–6412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean surface waves play an important role in the air–sea interface but are rarely activated in high-resolution Earth system simulations due to their expensive computational costs. To alleviate this situation, this paper designs a new wave modeling framework with a multiscale grid system. Evaluations of a series of numerical experiments show that it has good feasibility and applicability in the WAVEWATCH III model, WW3, and can achieve the goals of efficient and high-precision wave simulation.
Doroteaciro Iovino, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6127–6159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the model performance of three global ocean–sea ice configurations, from non-eddying (1°) to eddy-rich (1/16°) resolutions. Model simulations are obtained following the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP2) protocol. We compare key global climate variables across the three models and against observations, emphasizing the relative advantages and disadvantages of running forced ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution.
Johannes Röhrs, Yvonne Gusdal, Edel S. U. Rikardsen, Marina Durán Moro, Jostein Brændshøi, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Sindre Fritzner, Keguang Wang, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Martina Idžanović, Thomas Lavergne, Jens Boldingh Debernard, and Kai H. Christensen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5401–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A model to predict ocean currents, temperature, and sea ice is presented, covering the Barents Sea and northern Norway. To quantify forecast uncertainties, the model calculates ensemble forecasts with 24 realizations of ocean and ice conditions. Observations from satellites, buoys, and ships are ingested by the model. The model forecasts are compared with observations, and we show that the ocean model has skill in predicting sea surface temperatures.
Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Veit Lüschow, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Peter Korn, and Vikram Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5179–5196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The new ocean general circulation model ICON-O is developed for running experiments at kilometer scales and beyond. One targeted application is to simulate internal tides crucial for ocean mixing. To ensure their realism, which is difficult to assess, we evaluate the barotropic tides that generate internal tides. We show that ICON-O is able to realistically simulate the major aspects of the observed barotropic tides and discuss the aspects that impact the quality of the simulated tides.
Bror F. Jönsson, Christopher L. Follett, Jacob Bien, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Sangwon Hyun, Gemma Kulk, Gael L. Forget, Christian Müller, Marie-Fanny Racault, Christopher N. Hill, Thomas Jackson, and Shubha Sathyendranath
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4639–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
While biogeochemical models and satellite-derived ocean color data provide unprecedented information, it is problematic to compare them. Here, we present a new approach based on comparing probability density distributions of model and satellite properties to assess model skills. We also introduce Earth mover's distances as a novel and powerful metric to quantify the misfit between models and observations. We find that how 3D chlorophyll fields are aggregated can be a significant source of error.
Rafael Santana, Helen Macdonald, Joanne O'Callaghan, Brian Powell, Sarah Wakes, and Sutara H. Suanda
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3675–3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show the importance of assimilating subsurface temperature and velocity data in a model of the East Auckland Current. Assimilation of velocity increased the representation of large oceanic vortexes. Assimilation of temperature is needed to correctly simulate temperatures around 100 m depth, which is the most difficult region to simulate in ocean models. Our simulations showed improved results in comparison to the US Navy global model and highlight the importance of regional models.
David Byrne, Jeff Polton, Enda O'Dea, and Joanne Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3749–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Validation is a crucial step during the development of models for ocean simulation. The purpose of validation is to assess how accurate a model is. It is most commonly done by comparing output from a model to actual observations. In this paper, we introduce and demonstrate usage of the COAsT Python package to standardise the validation process for physical ocean models. We also discuss our five guiding principles for standardised validation.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Daniele Bianchi, Daniel McCoy, and Simon Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3581–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3581-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3581-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present NitrOMZ, a new model of the oceanic nitrogen cycle that simulates chemical transformations within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We describe the model formulation and its implementation in a one-dimensional representation of the water column before evaluating its ability to reproduce observations in the eastern tropical South Pacific. We conclude by describing the model sensitivity to parameter choices and environmental factors and its application to nitrogen cycling in the ocean.
Rui Sun, Alison Cobb, Ana B. Villas Bôas, Sabique Langodan, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Matthew R. Mazloff, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Arthur J. Miller, Raju Pathak, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3435–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS. We then performed a case study using the newly implemented model to study Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea. We found that the coupled model better simulates the cyclone than the uncoupled model, but the impact of waves on the cyclone is not significant. However, the waves change the sea surface temperature and mixed layer, especially in the cold waves produced due to the cyclone.
Pengcheng Wang and Natacha B. Bernier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3335–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of sea ice are typically neglected in operational flood forecast systems. In this work, we capture these effects via the addition of a parameterized ice–ocean stress. The parameterization takes advantage of forecast fields from an advanced ice–ocean model and features a novel, consistent representation of the tidal relative ice–ocean velocity. The new parameterization leads to improved forecasts of tides and storm surges in polar regions. Associated physical processes are discussed.
Yue Xu and Xiping Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2811–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2811-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2811-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate description of the wind energy input into ocean waves is crucial to ocean wave modeling, and a physics-based consideration of the effect of wave breaking is absolutely necessary to obtain such an accurate description, particularly under extreme conditions. This study evaluates the performance of a recently improved formula, taking into account not only the effect of breaking but also the effect of airflow separation on the leeside of steep wave crests in a reasonably consistent way.
Yankun Gong, Xueen Chen, Jiexin Xu, Jieshuo Xie, Zhiwu Chen, Yinghui He, and Shuqun Cai
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2851–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Internal solitary waves (ISWs) play crucial roles in mass transport and ocean mixing in the northern South China Sea. Massive numerical investigations have been conducted in this region, but there was no systematic evaluation of a three-dimensional model about precisely simulating ISWs. Here, an ISW forecasting model is employed to evaluate the roles of resolution, tidal forcing and stratification in accurately reproducing wave properties via comparison to field and remote-sensing observations.
Johannes Bieser, David J. Amptmeijer, Ute Daewel, Joachim Kuss, Anne L. Soerensen, and Corinna Schrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2649–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
MERCY is a 3D model to study mercury (Hg) cycling in the ocean. Hg is a highly harmful pollutant regulated by the UN Minamata Convention on Mercury due to widespread human emissions. These emissions eventually reach the oceans, where Hg transforms into the even more toxic and bioaccumulative pollutant methylmercury. MERCY predicts the fate of Hg in the ocean and its buildup in the food chain. It is the first model to consider Hg accumulation in fish, a major source of Hg exposure for humans.
Y. Joseph Zhang, Tomas Fernandez-Montblanc, William Pringle, Hao-Cheng Yu, Linlin Cui, and Saeed Moghimi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2565–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating global ocean from deep basins to coastal areas is a daunting task but is important for disaster mitigation efforts. We present a new 3D global ocean model on flexible mesh to study both tidal and nontidal processes and total water prediction. We demonstrate the potential for
seamlesssimulation, on a single mesh, from the global ocean to a few estuaries along the US West Coast. The model can serve as the backbone of a global tide surge and compound flooding forecasting framework.
Cited articles
Adams, D.: The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, 42nd edn., Pan-Macmillan, ISBN 978-1-5290-4613-7, 1979. a
Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke,
J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M.,
Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Achuta Rao, K.,
Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P., Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S.,
Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W., Collins, W. D.,
Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C.,
Di Luca, A., Diongue Niang, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H.,
Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B.,
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya,
I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E., Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam,
A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J.,
Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K.,
Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F.,
Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L.,
Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I.,
Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Treguier, A.-M., van den Hurk,
B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X., and Zickfeld, K.:
Technical Summary, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Masson-Delmotte, V.,
Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen,
Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and
Zhou, B., book section 1, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf (last access: 23 December 2022),
2021. a
Bajo, M., Međugorac, I., Umgiesser, G., and Orlić, M.: Storm surge and seiche
modelling in the Adriatic Sea and the impact of data assimilation, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2070–2084,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3544, 2019. a
Bernier, N. B. and Thompson, K. R.: Deterministic and ensemble storm surge
prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days, Ocean
Model., 86, 114–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.12.002, 2015. a
Braakmann-Folgmann, A., Roscher, R., Wenzel, S., Uebbing, B., and Kusche, J.:
Sea level anomaly prediction using recurrent neural networks, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1710.07099, 19 October 2017. a
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti,
L., Chiggiato, J., Ferrarin, C., and Umgiesser, G.: The 2019 Flooding of
Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions, Oceanography, 33, 42–49,
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2020.105, 2020. a, b, c, d
Cerovecki, I., Orlic, M., and Hendershott, M. C.: Adriatic seiche decay and
energy loss to the Mediterranean, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 44, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0967-0637(97)00056-3, n/a,
1997. a
Clementi, E., Aydogdu, A., Goglio, A. C., Pistoia, J., Escudier, R., Drudi, M.,
Grandi, A., Mariani, A., Lyubartsev, V., Lecci, R., Cretí, S., Coppini, G.,
Masina, S., and Pinardi, N.: Mediterranean Sea Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS
MED-Currents, EAS6 system) (Version 1), Copernicus Monitoring Environment
Marine Service (CMEMS) [data set],
https://doi.org/10.25423/cmcc/medsea_analysis_forecast_phy_006_013_eas4,
2021. a, b
Codiga, D.: Unified Tidal Analysis and Prediction Using the UTide Matlab
Functions, Tech. Rep., Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode
Island, Narragansett, RI, USA, GitHub [code],
https://github.com/wesleybowman/UTide (last access: 14 November 2022), 2011. a
Ferrarin, C., Valentini, A., Vodopivec, M., Klaric, D., Massaro, G., Bajo, M., De Pascalis, F., Fadini, A., Ghezzo, M., Menegon, S., Bressan, L., Unguendoli, S., Fettich, A., Jerman, J., Ličer, M., Fustar, L., Papa, A., and Carraro, E.: Integrated sea storm management strategy: the 29 October 2018 event in the Adriatic Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Ferrarin, C., Lionello, P., Orlić, M., Raicich, F., and Salvadori, G.: Venice
as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers, Scientific
Reports, 12, 5754, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09652-5, 2022. a
Gregory, J., S.M., G., Hughes, C., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I.,
Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Le Cozannet, G., Ponte, R. M., Stammer,
D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for
Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv.
Geophys., 40, 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019. a
He, K., Zhang, X., Ren, S., and Sun, J.: Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition, in: 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), Las Vegas, Nevada, 27–30 June 2016, 770–778, https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2016.90,
2016. a
Hieronymus, M., Hieronymus, J., and Hieronymus, F.: On the application of
machine learning techniques to regression problems in sea level studies,
J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 36, 1889–1902, 2019. a
Hochreiter, S. and Schmidhuber, J.: Long short-term memory, Neural Comput.,
9, 1735–1780, 1997. a
Imani, M., Kao, H.-C., Lan, W.-H., and Kuo, C.-Y.: Daily sea level prediction
at Chiayi coast, Taiwan using extreme learning machine and relevance vector
machine, Global Planet. Change, 161, 211–221, 2018. a
Ioffe, S. and Szegedy, C.: Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal
Covariate Shift, in: Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning, Lille, France, 7–9 July 2015, edited by: Bach, F. and Blei, D., PMLR, 37, 448–456, http://proceedings.mlr.press/v37/ioffe15.pdf (last access: 14 November 2022), 2015. a
Ishida, K., Tsujimoto, G., Ercan, A., Tu, T., Kiyama, M., and Amagasaki, M.:
Hourly-scale coastal sea level modeling in a changing climate using long
short-term memory neural network, Sci. Total Environ., 720,
137613, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137613, 2020. a
Karimi, S., Kisi, O., Shiri, J., and Makarynskyy, O.: Neuro-fuzzy and neural
network techniques for forecasting sea level in Darwin Harbor, Australia,
Comput. Geosci., 52, 50–59, 2013. a
Klambauer, G., Unterthiner, T., Mayr, A., and Hochreiter, S.: Self-normalizing
neural networks, Adv. Neur. In., 30, 971–980, 2017. a
Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T.: Ensemble forecasting, Tech. Rep., ECMWF,
https://doi.org/10.21957/c0hq4yg78, 2007. a
Loshchilov, I. and Hutter, F.: Sgdr: Stochastic gradient descent with warm
restarts, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1608.03983, 13 August 2016. a
Loshchilov, I. and Hutter, F.: Decoupled weight decay regularization, arXiv
[preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1711.05101, 14 November 2017. a
Medvedev, I. P., Vilibić, I., and Rabinovich, A. B.: Tidal resonance in the
Adriatic Sea: Observational evidence, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, e2020JC016168, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016168, 2020. a
Mel, R. and Lionello, P.: Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction for the City of
Venice, Weather Forecast., 29, 1044–1057,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00117.1, 2014.
a
Pashova, L. and Popova, S.: Daily sea level forecast at tide gauge Burgas,
Bulgaria using artificial neural networks, J. Sea Res., 66,
154–161, 2011. a
Pérez Gómez, B., Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., Međugorac, I., Ličer, M., Testut, L., Fraboul, C., Marcos, M., Abdellaoui, H., Álvarez Fanjul, E., Barbalić, D., Casas, B., Castaño-Tierno, A., Čupić, S., Drago, A., Fraile, M. A., Galliano, D. A., Gauci, A., Gloginja, B., Martín Guijarro, V., Jeromel, M., Larrad Revuelto, M., Lazar, A., Keskin, I. H., Medvedev, I., Menassri, A., Meslem, M. A., Mihanović, H., Morucci, S., Niculescu, D., Quijano de Benito, J. M., Pascual, J., Palazov, A., Picone, M., Raicich, F., Said, M., Salat, J., Sezen, E., Simav, M., Sylaios, G., Tel, E., Tintoré, J., Zaimi, K., and Zodiatis, G.: Coastal sea level monitoring in the Mediterranean and Black seas, Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022. a, b
Rus, M., Fettich, A., Kristan, M., and Ličer, M.: Code for HIDRA2:
Deep-Learning Ensemble Storm Surge Forecasting in the Presence of Seiches –
the Case of Northern Adriatic, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7307365,
2022a. a
Rus, M., Fettich, A., Kristan, M., and Ličer, M.: Sea Level Datasets for
HIDRA2 Training and Evaluation, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7277108,
2022b. a
Rus, M., Fettich, A., Kristan, M., and Ličer, M.: Training and Test Datasets
for HIDRA2, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7304086, 2022c. a
Sapankevych, N. I. and Sankar, R.: Time Series Prediction Using Support Vector Machines: A Survey, IEEE Comput. Intell. M., 4, 24–38, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCI.2009.932254, 2009. a
Sonnewald, M., Lguensat, R., Jones, D. C., Dueben, P. D., Brajard, J., and
Balaji, V.: Bridging observations, theory and numerical simulation of the
ocean using machine learning, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 073008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0eb0, 2021. a
Taherkhani, M., Vitousek, S., Barnard, P., Frazer, N., Anderson, T. R., and
Fletcher, C. H.: Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood
frequency, Scientific Reports, 10, 6466,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-62188-4, 2020. a
Vilibić, I.: The role of the fundamental seiche in the Adriatic coastal
floods, Cont. Shelf Res., 26, 206–216,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2005.11.001, 2006. a
Zhang, Y. J., Ye, F., Stanev, E. V., and Grashorn, S.: Seamless cross-scale
modeling with SCHISM, Ocean Model., 102, 64–81,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.05.002, 2016. a
Short summary
We propose a new fast and reliable deep-learning architecture HIDRA2 for sea level and storm surge modeling. HIDRA2 features new feature encoders and a fusion-regression block. We test HIDRA2 on Adriatic storm surges, which depend on an interaction between tides and seiches. We demonstrate that HIDRA2 learns to effectively mimic the timing and amplitude of Adriatic seiches. This is essential for reliable HIDRA2 predictions of total storm surge sea levels.
We propose a new fast and reliable deep-learning architecture HIDRA2 for sea level and storm...