Articles | Volume 15, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9057-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9057-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An ensemble Kalman filter-based ocean data assimilation system improved by adaptive observation error inflation (AOEI)
RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, 6500047, Japan
RIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, 6500047, Japan
RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program (iTHEMS), Kobe, 6500047, Japan
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 4648601, Japan
Takemasa Miyoshi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, 6500047, Japan
RIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, 6500047, Japan
RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program (iTHEMS), Kobe, 6500047, Japan
Misako Kachi
Earth Observation Research Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba, 3058505, Japan
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Shun Ohishi, Tsutomu Hihara, Hidenori Aiki, Joji Ishizaka, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Misako Kachi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8395–8410, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, 2022
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We develop an ensemble-Kalman-filter-based regional ocean data assimilation system in which satellite and in situ observations are assimilated at a daily frequency. We find the best setting for dynamical balance and accuracy based on sensitivity experiments focused on how to inflate the ensemble spread and how to apply the analysis update to the model evolution. This study has a broader impact on more general data assimilation systems in which the initial shocks are a significant issue.
Tim Trent, Marc Schröder, Shu-Peng Ho, Steffen Beirle, Ralf Bennartz, Eva Borbas, Christian Borger, Helene Brogniez, Xavier Calbet, Elisa Castelli, Gilbert P. Compo, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Ulrike Falk, Frank Fell, John Forsythe, Hans Hersbach, Misako Kachi, Shinya Kobayashi, Robert E. Kursinski, Diego Loyola, Zhengzao Luo, Johannes K. Nielsen, Enzo Papandrea, Laurence Picon, Rene Preusker, Anthony Reale, Lei Shi, Laura Slivinski, Joao Teixeira, Tom Vonder Haar, and Thomas Wagner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9667–9695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9667-2024, 2024
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In a warmer future, water vapour will spend more time in the atmosphere, changing global rainfall patterns. In this study, we analysed the performance of 28 water vapour records between 1988 and 2014. We find sensitivity to surface warming generally outside expected ranges, attributed to breakpoints in individual record trends and differing representations of climate variability. The implication is that longer records are required for high confidence in assessing climate trends.
Kenta Kurosawa, Shunji Kotsuki, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 457–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-457-2023, 2023
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This study aimed to enhance weather and hydrological forecasts by integrating soil moisture data into a global weather model. By assimilating atmospheric observations and soil moisture data, the accuracy of forecasts was improved, and certain biases were reduced. The method was found to be particularly beneficial in areas like the Sahel and equatorial Africa, where precipitation patterns vary seasonally. This new approach has the potential to improve the precision of weather predictions.
Qiwen Sun, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Serge Richard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 117–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-117-2023, 2023
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This paper is a follow-up of a work by Miyoshi and Sun which was published in NPG Letters in 2022. The control simulation experiment is applied to the Lorenz-96 model for avoiding extreme events. The results show that extreme events of this partially and imperfectly observed chaotic system can be avoided by applying pre-designed small perturbations. These investigations may be extended to more realistic numerical weather prediction models.
Tobias Necker, David Hinger, Philipp Johannes Griewank, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Martin Weissmann
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 13–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-13-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-13-2023, 2023
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This study investigates vertical localization based on a convection-permitting 1000-member ensemble simulation. We derive an empirical optimal localization (EOL) that minimizes sampling error in 40-member sub-sample correlations assuming 1000-member correlations as truth. The results will provide guidance for localization in convective-scale ensemble data assimilation systems.
Shun Ohishi, Tsutomu Hihara, Hidenori Aiki, Joji Ishizaka, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Misako Kachi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8395–8410, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8395-2022, 2022
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We develop an ensemble-Kalman-filter-based regional ocean data assimilation system in which satellite and in situ observations are assimilated at a daily frequency. We find the best setting for dynamical balance and accuracy based on sensitivity experiments focused on how to inflate the ensemble spread and how to apply the analysis update to the model evolution. This study has a broader impact on more general data assimilation systems in which the initial shocks are a significant issue.
Shunji Kotsuki, Takemasa Miyoshi, Keiichi Kondo, and Roland Potthast
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8325–8348, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8325-2022, 2022
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Data assimilation plays an important part in numerical weather prediction (NWP) in terms of combining forecasted states and observations. While data assimilation methods in NWP usually assume the Gaussian error distribution, some variables in the atmosphere, such as precipitation, are known to have non-Gaussian error statistics. This study extended a widely used ensemble data assimilation algorithm to enable the assimilation of more non-Gaussian observations.
Takemasa Miyoshi and Qiwen Sun
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 133–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-133-2022, 2022
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The weather is chaotic and hard to predict, but the chaos implies an effective control where a small control signal grows rapidly to make a big difference. This study proposes a control simulation experiment where we apply a small signal to control
naturein a computational simulation. Idealized experiments with a low-order chaotic system show successful results by small control signals of only 3 % of the observation error. This is the first step toward realistic weather simulations.
Juan Ruiz, Guo-Yuan Lien, Keiichi Kondo, Shigenori Otsuka, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 615–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-615-2021, 2021
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Effective use of observations with numerical weather prediction models, also known as data assimilation, is a key part of weather forecasting systems. For precise prediction at the scales of thunderstorms, fast nonlinear processes pose a grand challenge because most data assimilation systems are based on linear processes and normal distribution errors. We investigate how, every 30 s, weather radar observations can help reduce the effect of nonlinear processes and nonnormal distributions.
Keiichi Kondo and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 211–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-211-2019, 2019
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This study investigates non-Gaussian statistics of the data from a 10240-member ensemble Kalman filter. The large ensemble size can resolve the detailed structures of the probability density functions (PDFs) and indicates that the non-Gaussian PDF is caused by multimodality and outliers. While the outliers appear randomly, large multimodality corresponds well with large analysis error, mainly in the tropical regions and storm track regions where highly nonlinear processes appear frequently.
Atsushi Okazaki, Takumi Honda, Shunji Kotsuki, Moeka Yamaji, Takuji Kubota, Riko Oki, Toshio Iguchi, and Takemasa Miyoshi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3985–3996, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3985-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3985-2019, 2019
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The JAXA is surveying the feasibility of a potential satellite mission equipped with a precipitation radar on a geostationary orbit, as a successor of the GPM Core Observatory. We investigate what kind of observation data will be available from the radar using simulation techniques. Although the quality of the observation depends on the radar specifications and the position of precipitation systems, the results demonstrate that it would be possible to obtain three-dimensional precipitation data.
Marc Schröder, Maarit Lockhoff, Frank Fell, John Forsythe, Tim Trent, Ralf Bennartz, Eva Borbas, Michael G. Bosilovich, Elisa Castelli, Hans Hersbach, Misako Kachi, Shinya Kobayashi, E. Robert Kursinski, Diego Loyola, Carl Mears, Rene Preusker, William B. Rossow, and Suranjana Saha
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1093–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1093-2018, 2018
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This publication presents results achieved within the GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment (G-VAP). An overview of available water vapour data records based on satellite observations and reanalysis is given. If a minimum temporal coverage of 10 years is applied, 22 data records remain. These form the G-VAP data archive, which contains total column water vapour, specific humidity profiles and temperature profiles. The G-VAP data archive is designed to ease intercomparison and climate model evaluation.
Guo-Yuan Lien, Daisuke Hotta, Eugenia Kalnay, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Tse-Chun Chen
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 129–143, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-129-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-129-2018, 2018
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The ensemble forecast sensitivity to observation (EFSO) method can efficiently clarify under what conditions observations are beneficial or detrimental for assimilation. Based on EFSO, an offline assimilation method is proposed to accelerate the development of data selection strategies for new observing systems. The usefulness of this method is demonstrated with the assimilation of global satellite precipitation data.
Hazuki Arakida, Takemasa Miyoshi, Takeshi Ise, Shin-ichiro Shima, and Shunji Kotsuki
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 553–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-553-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-553-2017, 2017
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This is the first study assimilating the satellite-based leaf area index observations every 4 days into a numerical model simulating the growth and death of individual plants. The newly developed data assimilation system successfully reduced the uncertainties of the model parameters related to phenology and carbon dynamics. It also provides better estimates of the present vegetation structure which can be used as the initial states for the simulation of the future vegetation change.
Stephen G. Penny and Takemasa Miyoshi
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 391–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-391-2016, 2016
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Particle filters in their basic form have been shown to be unusable for large geophysical systems because the number of required particles grows exponentially with the size of the system. We have applied the ideas of localized analyses at each model grid point and use ensemble weight smoothing to blend each local analysis with its neighbors. This new local particle filter (LPF) makes large geophysical applications tractable for particle filters and is competitive with a popular EnKF alternative.
Hisashi Yashiro, Koji Terasaki, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Hirofumi Tomita
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2293–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2293-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2293-2016, 2016
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We propose the design and implementation of an ensemble data assimilation framework for weather prediction at a high resolution and with a large ensemble size. We consider the deployment of this framework on the data throughput of file I/O and multi-node communication. With regard to high-performance computing systems, where data throughput performance increases at a slower rate than computational performance, our new framework promises drastic reduction of total execution time.
X. Han, X. Li, G. He, P. Kumbhar, C. Montzka, S. Kollet, T. Miyoshi, R. Rosolem, Y. Zhang, H. Vereecken, and H.-J. H. Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7395-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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DasPy is a ready to use open source parallel multivariate land data assimilation framework with joint state and parameter estimation using Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The Community Land Model (4.5) was integrated as model operator. The Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform, COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code and the Two-Source Formulation were integrated as observation operators for the multivariate assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature, respectively.
S. G. Penny, E. Kalnay, J. A. Carton, B. R. Hunt, K. Ide, T. Miyoshi, and G. A. Chepurin
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-1031-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-1031-2013, 2013
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Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4705–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4705-2024, 2024
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We propose a new point-prediction model, the DEep Learning WAVe Emulating model (DELWAVE), which successfully emulates the Simulating WAves Nearshore model (SWAN) over synoptic to climate timescales. Compared to control climatology over all wind directions, the mismatch between DELWAVE and SWAN is generally small compared to the difference between scenario and control conditions, suggesting that the noise introduced by surrogate modelling is substantially weaker than the climate change signal.
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4603–4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, 2024
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Oceanic transports shape the global climate, but the evaluation and validation of this key quantity based on reanalysis and model data are complicated by the distortion of the used modelling grids and the large number of different grid types. We present two new methods that allow the calculation of oceanic fluxes of volume, heat, salinity, and ice through almost arbitrary sections for various models and reanalyses that are independent of the used modelling grids.
Xiaoyu Fan, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Nobuhiro Suzuki, Qing Li, Patrick Marchesiello, Peter P. Sullivan, and Paul S. Hall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4095–4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4095-2024, 2024
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Simulations of the oceanic turbulent boundary layer using the nonhydrostatic CROCO ROMS and NCAR-LES models are compared. CROCO and the NCAR-LES are accurate in a similar manner, but CROCO’s additional features (e.g., nesting and realism) and its compressible turbulence formulation carry additional costs.
Jilian Xiong and Parker MacCready
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3341-2024, 2024
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The new offline particle tracking package, Tracker v1.1, is introduced to the Regional Ocean Modeling System, featuring an efficient nearest-neighbor algorithm to enhance particle-tracking speed. Its performance was evaluated against four other tracking packages and passive dye. Despite unique features, all packages yield comparable results. Running multiple packages within the same circulation model allows comparison of their performance and ease of use.
Sylvain Cailleau, Laurent Bessières, Léonel Chiendje, Flavie Dubost, Guillaume Reffray, Jean-Michel Lellouche, Simon van Gennip, Charly Régnier, Marie Drevillon, Marc Tressol, Matthieu Clavier, Julien Temple-Boyer, and Léo Berline
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3157–3173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3157-2024, 2024
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In order to improve Sargassum drift forecasting in the Caribbean area, drift models can be forced by higher-resolution ocean currents. To this goal a 3 km resolution regional ocean model has been developed. Its assessment is presented with a particular focus on the reproduction of fine structures representing key features of the Caribbean region dynamics and Sargassum transport. The simulated propagation of a North Brazil Current eddy and its dissipation was found to be quite realistic.
Gaetano Porcile, Anne-Claire Bennis, Martial Boutet, Sophie Le Bot, Franck Dumas, and Swen Jullien
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2829–2853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2829-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2829-2024, 2024
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Here a new method of modelling the interaction between ocean currents and waves is presented. We developed an advanced coupling of two models, one for ocean currents and one for waves. In previous couplings, some wave-related calculations were based on simplified assumptions. Our method uses more complex calculations to better represent wave–current interactions. We tested it in a macro-tidal coastal area and found that it significantly improves the model accuracy, especially during storms.
Colette Gabrielle Kerry, Moninya Roughan, Shane Keating, David Gwyther, Gary Brassington, Adil Siripatana, and Joao Marcos A. C. Souza
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2359–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2359-2024, 2024
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Ocean forecasting relies on the combination of numerical models and ocean observations through data assimilation (DA). Here we assess the performance of two DA systems in a dynamic western boundary current, the East Australian Current, across a common modelling and observational framework. We show that the more advanced, time-dependent method outperforms the time-independent method for forecast horizons of 5 d. This advocates the use of advanced methods for highly variable oceanic regions.
Ivan Hernandez, Leidy M. Castro-Rosero, Manuel Espino, and Jose M. Alsina Torrent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2221–2245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2221-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2221-2024, 2024
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The LOCATE numerical model was developed to conduct Lagrangian simulations of the transport and dispersion of marine debris at coastal scales. High-resolution hydrodynamic data and a beaching module that used particle distance to the shore for land–water boundary detection were used on a realistic debris discharge scenario comparing hydrodynamic data at various resolutions. Coastal processes and complex geometric structures were resolved when using nested grids and distance-to-shore beaching.
Adrien Garinet, Marine Herrmann, Patrick Marsaleix, and Juliette Pénicaud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-613, 2024
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Mixing is a crucial aspect of the ocean, but its accurate representation in computer simulations is made challenging by errors that result in unwanted mixing and compromise their realism. We illustrate here the spurious effect that tides can have on simulations of South East Asia. Although they play an important role in setting the state of the ocean, they can increase numerical errors and make simulation outputs less realistic. The paper also provides insights on how to reduce these errors.
Ngoc B. Trinh, Marine Herrmann, Caroline Ulses, Patrick Marsaleix, Thomas Duhaut, Thai To Duy, Claude Estournel, and R. Kipp Shearman
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1831–1867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1831-2024, 2024
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A high-resolution model was built to study the South China Sea (SCS) water, heat, and salt budgets. Model performance is demonstrated by comparison with observations and simulations. Important discards are observed if calculating offline, instead of online, lateral inflows and outflows of water, heat, and salt. The SCS mainly receives water from the Luzon Strait and releases it through the Mindoro, Taiwan, and Karimata straits. SCS surface interocean water exchanges are driven by monsoon winds.
Louis Thiry, Long Li, Guillaume Roullet, and Etienne Mémin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1749–1764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1749-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1749-2024, 2024
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We present a new way of solving the quasi-geostrophic (QG) equations, a simple set of equations describing ocean dynamics. Our method is solely based on the numerical methods used to solve the equations and requires no parameter tuning. Moreover, it can handle non-rectangular geometries, opening the way to study QG equations on realistic domains. We release a PyTorch implementation to ease future machine-learning developments on top of the presented method.
Zheqi Shen, Yihao Chen, Xiaojing Li, and Xunshu Song
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1651–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1651-2024, 2024
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Parameter estimation is the process that optimizes model parameters using observations, which could reduce model errors and improve forecasting. In this study, we conducted parameter estimation experiments using the CESM and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. The obtained initial conditions and parameters are used to perform ensemble forecast experiments for ENSO forecasting. The results revealed that parameter estimation could reduce analysis errors and improve ENSO forecast skills.
Ali Abdolali, Saeideh Banihashemi, Jose Henrique Alves, Aron Roland, Tyler J. Hesser, Mary Anderson Bryant, and Jane McKee Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1023–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1023-2024, 2024
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This article presents an overview of the development and implementation of Great Lake Wave Unstructured (GLWUv2.0), including the core model and workflow design and development. The validation was conducted against in situ data for the re-forecasted duration for summer and wintertime (ice season). The article describes the limitations and challenges encountered in the operational environment and the path forward for the next generation of wave forecast systems in enclosed basins like the GL.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-95, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change arising from ice sheet-ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations, and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The 2nd Marine Ice Sheet Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice sheet-ocean interactions in global scale, IPCC class models.
Qiang Wang, Qi Shu, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Nikolay Koldunov, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Hailong Liu, Igor Polyakov, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Shizhu Wang, and Xiaobiao Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 347–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024, 2024
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Increasing resolution improves model skills in simulating the Arctic Ocean, but other factors such as parameterizations and numerics are at least of the same importance for obtaining reliable simulations.
Qian Wang, Fei Chai, Yang Zhang, Yinglong Joseph Zhang, and Lorenzo Zampieri
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-236, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We coupled an unstructured hydro model with an advanced column sea ice model to meet the growing demand for increased resolution and complexity in unstructured sea ice models. Additionally, we present a novel tracer transport scheme for the sea ice coupled model, and demonstrate that this scheme fulfills the requirements for conservation, accuracy, efficiency, and monotonicity in an idealized test. Our new coupled model also has good performance in realistic tests.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6899–6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6899-2023, 2023
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We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
Lucille Barré, Frédéric Diaz, Thibaut Wagener, France Van Wambeke, Camille Mazoyer, Christophe Yohia, and Christel Pinazo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6701–6739, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6701-2023, 2023
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While several studies have shown that mixotrophs play a crucial role in the carbon cycle, the impact of environmental forcings on their dynamics remains poorly investigated. Using a biogeochemical model that considers mixotrophs, we study the impact of light and nutrient concentration on the ecosystem composition in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal area: the Bay of Marseille. We show that mixotrophs cope better with oligotrophic conditions compared to strict auto- and heterotrophs.
Trygve Halsne, Kai Håkon Christensen, Gaute Hope, and Øyvind Breivik
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6515–6530, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6515-2023, 2023
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Surface waves that propagate in oceanic or coastal environments get influenced by their surroundings. Changes in the ambient current or the depth profile affect the wave propagation path, and the change in wave direction is called refraction. Some analytical solutions to the governing equations exist under ideal conditions, but for realistic situations, the equations must be solved numerically. Here we present such a numerical solver under an open-source license.
Jiangyu Li, Shaoqing Zhang, Qingxiang Liu, Xiaolin Yu, and Zhiwei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6393–6412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6393-2023, 2023
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Ocean surface waves play an important role in the air–sea interface but are rarely activated in high-resolution Earth system simulations due to their expensive computational costs. To alleviate this situation, this paper designs a new wave modeling framework with a multiscale grid system. Evaluations of a series of numerical experiments show that it has good feasibility and applicability in the WAVEWATCH III model, WW3, and can achieve the goals of efficient and high-precision wave simulation.
Doroteaciro Iovino, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6127–6159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, 2023
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This paper describes the model performance of three global ocean–sea ice configurations, from non-eddying (1°) to eddy-rich (1/16°) resolutions. Model simulations are obtained following the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP2) protocol. We compare key global climate variables across the three models and against observations, emphasizing the relative advantages and disadvantages of running forced ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution.
Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, and Gianpiero Cossarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1876, 2023
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Harness AI for better ocean insights. BGC-Argo floats collect deep ocean data, yet forecasting vital nutrient levels is a challenge. Our novel AI approach, PPCon, learns from Argo float measurements and provides improved nutrient predictions. This enhances our understanding of ocean dynamics and nutrient distribution.
Johannes Röhrs, Yvonne Gusdal, Edel S. U. Rikardsen, Marina Durán Moro, Jostein Brændshøi, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Sindre Fritzner, Keguang Wang, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Martina Idžanović, Thomas Lavergne, Jens Boldingh Debernard, and Kai H. Christensen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5401–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, 2023
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A model to predict ocean currents, temperature, and sea ice is presented, covering the Barents Sea and northern Norway. To quantify forecast uncertainties, the model calculates ensemble forecasts with 24 realizations of ocean and ice conditions. Observations from satellites, buoys, and ships are ingested by the model. The model forecasts are compared with observations, and we show that the ocean model has skill in predicting sea surface temperatures.
Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Veit Lüschow, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Peter Korn, and Vikram Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5179–5196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5179-2023, 2023
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The new ocean general circulation model ICON-O is developed for running experiments at kilometer scales and beyond. One targeted application is to simulate internal tides crucial for ocean mixing. To ensure their realism, which is difficult to assess, we evaluate the barotropic tides that generate internal tides. We show that ICON-O is able to realistically simulate the major aspects of the observed barotropic tides and discuss the aspects that impact the quality of the simulated tides.
Bror F. Jönsson, Christopher L. Follett, Jacob Bien, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Sangwon Hyun, Gemma Kulk, Gael L. Forget, Christian Müller, Marie-Fanny Racault, Christopher N. Hill, Thomas Jackson, and Shubha Sathyendranath
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4639–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4639-2023, 2023
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While biogeochemical models and satellite-derived ocean color data provide unprecedented information, it is problematic to compare them. Here, we present a new approach based on comparing probability density distributions of model and satellite properties to assess model skills. We also introduce Earth mover's distances as a novel and powerful metric to quantify the misfit between models and observations. We find that how 3D chlorophyll fields are aggregated can be a significant source of error.
Jan David Zika and Sohail Taimoor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1220, 2023
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We describe a method to relate the fluxes of heat and fresh water at the sea surface, to the resulting distribution of sea water among categories such as warm and salty, cold and salty, etc. The method exploits the laws that govern how heat and salt change when water mixes. The method will allow the climate community to improve estimates of how much heat the ocean is absorbing and how rainfall and evaporation are changing across the globe.
Rafael Santana, Helen Macdonald, Joanne O'Callaghan, Brian Powell, Sarah Wakes, and Sutara H. Suanda
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3675–3698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3675-2023, 2023
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We show the importance of assimilating subsurface temperature and velocity data in a model of the East Auckland Current. Assimilation of velocity increased the representation of large oceanic vortexes. Assimilation of temperature is needed to correctly simulate temperatures around 100 m depth, which is the most difficult region to simulate in ocean models. Our simulations showed improved results in comparison to the US Navy global model and highlight the importance of regional models.
David Byrne, Jeff Polton, Enda O'Dea, and Joanne Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3749–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3749-2023, 2023
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Validation is a crucial step during the development of models for ocean simulation. The purpose of validation is to assess how accurate a model is. It is most commonly done by comparing output from a model to actual observations. In this paper, we introduce and demonstrate usage of the COAsT Python package to standardise the validation process for physical ocean models. We also discuss our five guiding principles for standardised validation.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Daniele Bianchi, Daniel McCoy, and Simon Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3581–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3581-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3581-2023, 2023
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We present NitrOMZ, a new model of the oceanic nitrogen cycle that simulates chemical transformations within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We describe the model formulation and its implementation in a one-dimensional representation of the water column before evaluating its ability to reproduce observations in the eastern tropical South Pacific. We conclude by describing the model sensitivity to parameter choices and environmental factors and its application to nitrogen cycling in the ocean.
Rui Sun, Alison Cobb, Ana B. Villas Bôas, Sabique Langodan, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Matthew R. Mazloff, Bruce D. Cornuelle, Arthur J. Miller, Raju Pathak, and Ibrahim Hoteit
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3435–3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3435-2023, 2023
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In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS. We then performed a case study using the newly implemented model to study Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea. We found that the coupled model better simulates the cyclone than the uncoupled model, but the impact of waves on the cyclone is not significant. However, the waves change the sea surface temperature and mixed layer, especially in the cold waves produced due to the cyclone.
Pengcheng Wang and Natacha B. Bernier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3335–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3335-2023, 2023
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Effects of sea ice are typically neglected in operational flood forecast systems. In this work, we capture these effects via the addition of a parameterized ice–ocean stress. The parameterization takes advantage of forecast fields from an advanced ice–ocean model and features a novel, consistent representation of the tidal relative ice–ocean velocity. The new parameterization leads to improved forecasts of tides and storm surges in polar regions. Associated physical processes are discussed.
Yue Xu and Xiping Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2811–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2811-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2811-2023, 2023
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An accurate description of the wind energy input into ocean waves is crucial to ocean wave modeling, and a physics-based consideration of the effect of wave breaking is absolutely necessary to obtain such an accurate description, particularly under extreme conditions. This study evaluates the performance of a recently improved formula, taking into account not only the effect of breaking but also the effect of airflow separation on the leeside of steep wave crests in a reasonably consistent way.
Yankun Gong, Xueen Chen, Jiexin Xu, Jieshuo Xie, Zhiwu Chen, Yinghui He, and Shuqun Cai
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2851–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2851-2023, 2023
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Internal solitary waves (ISWs) play crucial roles in mass transport and ocean mixing in the northern South China Sea. Massive numerical investigations have been conducted in this region, but there was no systematic evaluation of a three-dimensional model about precisely simulating ISWs. Here, an ISW forecasting model is employed to evaluate the roles of resolution, tidal forcing and stratification in accurately reproducing wave properties via comparison to field and remote-sensing observations.
Johannes Bieser, David J. Amptmeijer, Ute Daewel, Joachim Kuss, Anne L. Soerensen, and Corinna Schrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2649–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2649-2023, 2023
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MERCY is a 3D model to study mercury (Hg) cycling in the ocean. Hg is a highly harmful pollutant regulated by the UN Minamata Convention on Mercury due to widespread human emissions. These emissions eventually reach the oceans, where Hg transforms into the even more toxic and bioaccumulative pollutant methylmercury. MERCY predicts the fate of Hg in the ocean and its buildup in the food chain. It is the first model to consider Hg accumulation in fish, a major source of Hg exposure for humans.
Y. Joseph Zhang, Tomas Fernandez-Montblanc, William Pringle, Hao-Cheng Yu, Linlin Cui, and Saeed Moghimi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2565–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2565-2023, 2023
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Simulating global ocean from deep basins to coastal areas is a daunting task but is important for disaster mitigation efforts. We present a new 3D global ocean model on flexible mesh to study both tidal and nontidal processes and total water prediction. We demonstrate the potential for
seamlesssimulation, on a single mesh, from the global ocean to a few estuaries along the US West Coast. The model can serve as the backbone of a global tide surge and compound flooding forecasting framework.
Qi Shu, Qiang Wang, Chuncheng Guo, Zhenya Song, Shizhu Wang, Yan He, and Fangli Qiao
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2539–2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2539-2023, 2023
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Ocean models are often used for scientific studies on the Arctic Ocean. Here the Arctic Ocean simulations by state-of-the-art global ocean–sea-ice models participating in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) were evaluated. The simulations on Arctic Ocean hydrography, freshwater content, stratification, sea surface height, and gateway transports were assessed and the common biases were detected. The simulations forced by different atmospheric forcing were also evaluated.
Manuel Aghito, Loris Calgaro, Knut-Frode Dagestad, Christian Ferrarin, Antonio Marcomini, Øyvind Breivik, and Lars Robert Hole
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2477–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, 2023
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The newly developed ChemicalDrift model can simulate the transport and fate of chemicals in the ocean and in coastal regions. The model combines ocean physics, including transport due to currents, turbulence due to surface winds and the sinking of particles to the sea floor, with ocean chemistry, such as the partitioning, the degradation and the evaporation of chemicals. The model will be utilized for risk assessment of ocean and sea-floor contamination from pollutants emitted from shipping.
Nieves G. Valiente, Andrew Saulter, Breogan Gomez, Christopher Bunney, Jian-Guo Li, Tamzin Palmer, and Christine Pequignet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2515–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2515-2023, 2023
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We document the Met Office operational global and regional wave models which provide wave forecasts up to 7 d ahead. Our models present coarser resolution offshore to higher resolution near the coastline. The increased resolution led to replication of the extremes but to some overestimation during modal conditions. If currents are included, wave directions and long period swells near the coast are significantly improved. New developments focus on the optimisation of the models with resolution.
Maxime Beauchamp, Quentin Febvre, Hugo Georgenthum, and Ronan Fablet
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2119–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2119-2023, 2023
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4DVarNet is a learning-based method based on traditional data assimilation (DA). This new class of algorithms can be used to provide efficient reconstructions of a dynamical system based on single observations. We provide a 4DVarNet application to sea surface height reconstructions based on nadir and future Surface Water and Ocean and Topography data. It outperforms other methods, from optimal interpolation to sophisticated DA algorithms. This work is part of on-going AI Chair Oceanix projects.
Bin Xiao, Fangli Qiao, Qi Shu, Xunqiang Yin, Guansuo Wang, and Shihong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1755–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1755-2023, 2023
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A new global surface-wave–tide–circulation coupled ocean model (FIO-COM32) with a resolution of 1/32° × 1/32° is developed and validated. Both the promotion of the horizontal resolution and included physical processes are shown to be important contributors to the significant improvements in FIO-COM32 simulations. It is time to merge these separated model components (surface waves, tidal currents and ocean circulation) and start a new generation of ocean model development.
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Short summary
An adaptive observation error inflation (AOEI) method was proposed for atmospheric data assimilation to mitigate erroneous analysis updates caused by large observation-minus-forecast differences for satellite brightness temperature around clear- and cloudy-sky boundaries. This study implemented the AOEI with an ocean data assimilation system, leading to an improvement of analysis accuracy and dynamical balance around the frontal regions with large meridional temperature differences.
An adaptive observation error inflation (AOEI) method was proposed for atmospheric data...