Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3281-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
21 Apr 2022
Model description paper |
| 21 Apr 2022
| 21 Apr 2022
Development and evaluation of an advanced National Air Quality Forecasting Capability using the NOAA Global Forecast System version 16
Patrick C. Campbell
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason
University, Fairfax, VA, USA
Youhua Tang
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason
University, Fairfax, VA, USA
Pius Lee
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
retired
Barry Baker
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Daniel Tong
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason
University, Fairfax, VA, USA
Rick Saylor
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Ariel Stein
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), College Park, MD, USA
Jianping Huang
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
I.M. Systems Group Inc., Rockville, MD, USA
Ho-Chun Huang
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
I.M. Systems Group Inc., Rockville, MD, USA
Edward Strobach
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
I.M. Systems Group Inc., Rockville, MD, USA
Jeff McQueen
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
I.M. Systems Group Inc., Rockville, MD, USA
Ivanka Stajner
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
Jamese Sims
NOAA NWS/STI, College Park, MD, USA
Jose Tirado-Delgado
NOAA NWS/STI, College Park, MD, USA
Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), College Park, MD, USA
Youngsun Jung
NOAA NWS/STI, College Park, MD, USA
Fanglin Yang
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park,
MD, USA
Tanya L. Spero
US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Robert C. Gilliam
US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
Related authors
Chi-Tsan Wang, Patrick C. Campbell, Paul Makar, Siqi Ma, Irena Ivanova, Bok H. Baek, Wei-Ting Hung, Zachary Moon, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Rick Saylor, and Daniel Tong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Forests influence air quality by altering ozone levels, but most air pollution models overlook canopy effects. Our study improves ozone predictions by incorporating forest canopy shading and turbulence into a widely used model. We found that tree cover reduces near-surface ozone by decreasing photolysis rates and diffusion inside canopy, resulting in lower ozone concentrations in densely forested areas. These findings enhance ozone surface prediction accuracy and improve air quality modeling.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Siqi Ma, Saulo R. Freitas, Ravan Ahmadov, Mikhail Sofiev, Xiaoyang Zhang, Shobha Kondragunta, Ralph Kahn, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Patrick Campbell, Rick Saylor, Georg Grell, and Fangjun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3083–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plume height is important in wildfire smoke dispersion and affects air quality and human health. We assess the impact of plume height on wildfire smoke dispersion and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. A higher plume height predicts lower pollution near the source region, but higher pollution in downwind regions, due to the faster spread of the smoke once ejected, affects pollution exceedance forecasts and the early warning of extreme air pollution events.
Youhua Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Fanglin Yang, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Li Pan, Jeff McQueen, Ivanka Stajner, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Melissa Yang, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Tom Ryerson, Donald Blake, Joshua Schwarz, Jose-Luis Jimenez, James Crawford, Glenn Diskin, Richard Moore, Johnathan Hair, Greg Huey, Andrew Rollins, Jack Dibb, and Xiaoyang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7977–7999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares two meteorological datasets for driving a regional air quality model: a regional meteorological model using WRF (WRF-CMAQ) and direct interpolation from an operational global model (GFS-CMAQ). In the comparison with surface measurements and aircraft data in summer 2019, these two methods show mixed performance depending on the corresponding meteorological settings. Direct interpolation is found to be a viable method to drive air quality models.
Siqi Ma, Daniel Tong, Lok Lamsal, Julian Wang, Xuelei Zhang, Youhua Tang, Rick Saylor, Tianfeng Chai, Pius Lee, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Laura Judd, Timothy A. Berkoff, Scott J. Janz, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16531–16553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting high ozone gets more challenging as urban emissions decrease. How can different techniques be used to foretell the quality of air to better protect human health? We tested four techniques with the CMAQ model against observations during a field campaign over New York City. The new system proves to better predict the magnitude and timing of high ozone. These approaches can be extended to other regions to improve the predictability of high-O3 episodes in contemporary urban environments.
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to select, add, and scale emissions from different sources through a configuration file with no change to the model source code. We demonstrate the implementation of HEMCO in several models, all sharing the same HEMCO core code and database library.
Xiaoyang Chen, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Youhua Tang, Jianping Huang, Patrick C. Campbell, Jeff Mcqueen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Daiwen Kang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The continuously updated National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) provides air quality forecasts. To support the development of the next-generation NAQFC, we evaluate a prototype of GFSv15-CMAQv5.0.2. The performance and the potential improvements for the system are discussed. This study can provide a scientific basis for further development of NAQFC and help it to provide more accurate air quality forecasts to the public over the contiguous United States.
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Megan S. Mallard, Tanya Spero, Jared Bowden, Jeff Willison, Christopher G. Nolte, and Anna M. Jalowska
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2352, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
“Spin-up” is time needed for a model’s result to become effectively free of influence from initial conditions, and it is usually excluded from analysis. Here, spin-up is examined by comparing one decadal simulation to another initialized 20 years prior, in order to determine when their solutions converge. Differences lessen over the first fall and winter, but re-emerge over the following spring and summer, suggesting that at least 1 annual cycle is needed to spin up regional climate simulations.
Chi-Tsan Wang, Patrick C. Campbell, Paul Makar, Siqi Ma, Irena Ivanova, Bok H. Baek, Wei-Ting Hung, Zachary Moon, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Rick Saylor, and Daniel Tong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-485, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
Forests influence air quality by altering ozone levels, but most air pollution models overlook canopy effects. Our study improves ozone predictions by incorporating forest canopy shading and turbulence into a widely used model. We found that tree cover reduces near-surface ozone by decreasing photolysis rates and diffusion inside canopy, resulting in lower ozone concentrations in densely forested areas. These findings enhance ozone surface prediction accuracy and improve air quality modeling.
Sara L. Farrell, Havala O. T. Pye, Robert Gilliam, George Pouliot, Deanna Huff, Golam Sarwar, William Vizuete, Nicole Briggs, Fengkui Duan, Tao Ma, Shuping Zhang, and Kathleen Fahey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3287–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we implement heterogeneous sulfur chemistry into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This new chemistry accounts for the formation of sulfate via aqueous oxidation of SO2 in aerosol liquid water and the formation of hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) – often confused by measurement techniques as sulfate. Model performance in predicting sulfur PM2.5 in Fairbanks, Alaska, and other places that experience dark and cold winters is improved.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Natalie Brett, Kathy S. Law, Steve R. Arnold, Javier G. Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonné, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F. DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, and Ellis S. Robinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1063–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Processes influencing dispersion of local anthropogenic pollution in Arctic wintertime are investigated with Lagrangian dispersion modelling. Simulated power plant plume rise that considers temperature inversion layers improves results compared to observations (interior Alaska). Modelled surface concentrations are improved by representation of vertical mixing and emission estimates. Large increases in diesel vehicle emissions at temperatures reaching −35°C are required to reproduce observed NOx.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, and Tianliang Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 943–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-943-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explored changes in ozone levels in the northwest Pacific region over 30 years, revealing a significant increase in the middle-to-upper troposphere, especially during spring and summer. This rise is influenced by both stratospheric and tropospheric sources, which affect climate and air quality in East Asia. This work underscores the need for continued study to understand underlying mechanisms.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Edward J. Strobach, Sunil Baidar, Brian J. Carroll, Steven S. Brown, Kristen Zuraski, Matthew Coggon, Chelsea E. Stockwell, Lu Xu, Yelena L. Pichugina, W. Alan Brewer, Carsten Warneke, Jeff Peischl, Jessica Gilman, Brandi McCarty, Maxwell Holloway, and Richard Marchbanks
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9277–9307, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale weather patterns are isolated from local patterns to study the impact that different weather scales have on air quality measurements. While impacts from large-scale meteorology were evaluated by separating ozone (O3) exceedance (>70 ppb) and non-exceedance (<70 ppb) days, we developed a technique that allows direct comparisons of small temporal variations between chemical and dynamics measurements under rapid dynamical transitions.
Qindan Zhu, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Matthew Coggon, Colin Harkins, Jordan Schnell, Jian He, Havala O. T. Pye, Meng Li, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Ravan Ahmadov, Eva Y. Pfannerstill, Bryan Place, Paul Wooldridge, Benjamin C. Schulze, Caleb Arata, Anthony Bucholtz, John H. Seinfeld, Carsten Warneke, Chelsea E. Stockwell, Lu Xu, Kristen Zuraski, Michael A. Robinson, J. Andrew Neuman, Patrick R. Veres, Jeff Peischl, Steven S. Brown, Allen H. Goldstein, Ronald C. Cohen, and Brian C. McDonald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5265–5286, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) fuel the production of air pollutants like ozone and particulate matter. The representation of VOC chemistry remains challenging due to its complexity in speciation and reactions. Here, we develop a chemical mechanism, RACM2B-VCP, that better represents VOC chemistry in urban areas such as Los Angeles. We also discuss the contribution of VOCs emitted from volatile chemical products and other anthropogenic sources to total VOC reactivity and O3.
Li Pan, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Barry Baker, Jeff McQueen, Georg A. Grell, Stuart A. McKeen, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, Gregory J. Frost, Fanglin Yang, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A GEFS-Aerosols simulation was conducted from 1 September 2019 to 30 September 2020 to evaluate the model performance of GEFS-Aerosols. The purpose of this study was to understand how aerosol chemical and physical processes affect ambient aerosol concentrations by placing aerosol wet deposition, dry deposition, reactions, gravitational deposition, and emissions into the aerosol mass balance equation.
Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Jonathan E. Pleim, Donna B. Schwede, Robert C. Gilliam, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, and Rohit Mathur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8119–8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8119-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Under the umbrella of the fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), this study applies AQMEII4 diagnostic tools to better characterize how dry deposition removes pollutants from the atmosphere in the widely used CMAQ model. The results illustrate how these tools can provide insights into similarities and differences between the two CMAQ dry deposition options that affect simulated pollutant budgets and ecosystem impacts from atmospheric pollution.
Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Siqi Ma, Saulo R. Freitas, Ravan Ahmadov, Mikhail Sofiev, Xiaoyang Zhang, Shobha Kondragunta, Ralph Kahn, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Patrick Campbell, Rick Saylor, Georg Grell, and Fangjun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3083–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Plume height is important in wildfire smoke dispersion and affects air quality and human health. We assess the impact of plume height on wildfire smoke dispersion and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. A higher plume height predicts lower pollution near the source region, but higher pollution in downwind regions, due to the faster spread of the smoke once ejected, affects pollution exceedance forecasts and the early warning of extreme air pollution events.
James D. East, Barron H. Henderson, Sergey L. Napelenok, Shannon N. Koplitz, Golam Sarwar, Robert Gilliam, Allen Lenzen, Daniel Q. Tong, R. Bradley Pierce, and Fernando Garcia-Menendez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15981–16001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework that uses a computer model of air quality, along with air pollution data from satellite instruments, to estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) across the Northern Hemisphere. The framework, which advances current methods to infer emissions from satellite observations, provides observationally constrained NOx estimates, including in regions of the world where emissions are highly uncertain, and can improve simulations of air pollutants relevant for health and policy.
Daiwen Kang, Nicholas K. Heath, Robert C. Gilliam, Tanya L. Spero, and Jonathan E. Pleim
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8561–8579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8561-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8561-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A lightning assimilation (LTA) technique implemented in the WRF model's Kain–Fritsch (KF) convective scheme is updated and applied to simulations from regional to hemispheric scales using observed lightning flashes from ground-based lightning detection networks. Different user-toggled options associated with the KF scheme on simulations with and without LTA are assessed. The model's performance is improved significantly by LTA, but it is sensitive to various factors.
Youhua Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Fanglin Yang, Barry Baker, Daniel Tong, Ariel Stein, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Li Pan, Jeff McQueen, Ivanka Stajner, Jose Tirado-Delgado, Youngsun Jung, Melissa Yang, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Tom Ryerson, Donald Blake, Joshua Schwarz, Jose-Luis Jimenez, James Crawford, Glenn Diskin, Richard Moore, Johnathan Hair, Greg Huey, Andrew Rollins, Jack Dibb, and Xiaoyang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7977–7999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7977-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares two meteorological datasets for driving a regional air quality model: a regional meteorological model using WRF (WRF-CMAQ) and direct interpolation from an operational global model (GFS-CMAQ). In the comparison with surface measurements and aircraft data in summer 2019, these two methods show mixed performance depending on the corresponding meteorological settings. Direct interpolation is found to be a viable method to drive air quality models.
Sarah E. Benish, Jesse O. Bash, Kristen M. Foley, K. Wyat Appel, Christian Hogrefe, Robert Gilliam, and George Pouliot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12749–12767, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We assess Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations of nitrogen and sulfur deposition over US climate regions to evaluate the model ability to reproduce long-term deposition trends and total deposition budgets. A measurement–model fusion technique is found to improve estimates of wet deposition. Emission controls set by the Clean Air Act successfully decreased oxidized nitrogen deposition across the US; we find increasing amounts of reduced nitrogen to the total nitrogen budget.
Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Stuart A. McKeen, Barry Baker, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Georg A. Grell, Judy Henderson, Li Pan, Gregory J. Frost, Jeff McQueen, Rick Saylor, Haiqin Li, Ravan Ahmadov, Jun Wang, Ivanka Stajner, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, and Fangjun Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5337–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The NOAA’s air quality predictions contribute to protecting lives and health in the US, which requires sustainable development and improvement of forecast systems. GEFS-Aerosols v1 has been developed in a collaboration between the NOAA research laboratories for operational forecast since September 2020 in the NCEP. The predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational system.
Siqi Ma, Daniel Tong, Lok Lamsal, Julian Wang, Xuelei Zhang, Youhua Tang, Rick Saylor, Tianfeng Chai, Pius Lee, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Laura Judd, Timothy A. Berkoff, Scott J. Janz, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16531–16553, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting high ozone gets more challenging as urban emissions decrease. How can different techniques be used to foretell the quality of air to better protect human health? We tested four techniques with the CMAQ model against observations during a field campaign over New York City. The new system proves to better predict the magnitude and timing of high ozone. These approaches can be extended to other regions to improve the predictability of high-O3 episodes in contemporary urban environments.
Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14427–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to select, add, and scale emissions from different sources through a configuration file with no change to the model source code. We demonstrate the implementation of HEMCO in several models, all sharing the same HEMCO core code and database library.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Soontae Kim, Mark Cohen, Changhan Bae, Dasom Lee, Rick Saylor, Minah Bae, Eunhye Kim, Byeong-Uk Kim, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10065–10080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global outbreaks of COVID-19 offer rare opportunities of natural experiments in emission control and corresponding responses of tropospheric chemistry. This study's novel approach investigates (1) isolating the pandemic's impact from natural and anthropogenic variations, (2) emission adjustment to reproduce real-time emissions, and (3) brute-force modeling to investigate Chinese economic activities. Results provide characteristics of the region's chemistry and emissions.
Xiaoyang Chen, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Youhua Tang, Jianping Huang, Patrick C. Campbell, Jeff Mcqueen, Havala O. T. Pye, Benjamin N. Murphy, and Daiwen Kang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The continuously updated National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) provides air quality forecasts. To support the development of the next-generation NAQFC, we evaluate a prototype of GFSv15-CMAQv5.0.2. The performance and the potential improvements for the system are discussed. This study can provide a scientific basis for further development of NAQFC and help it to provide more accurate air quality forecasts to the public over the contiguous United States.
K. Wyat Appel, Jesse O. Bash, Kathleen M. Fahey, Kristen M. Foley, Robert C. Gilliam, Christian Hogrefe, William T. Hutzell, Daiwen Kang, Rohit Mathur, Benjamin N. Murphy, Sergey L. Napelenok, Christopher G. Nolte, Jonathan E. Pleim, George A. Pouliot, Havala O. T. Pye, Limei Ran, Shawn J. Roselle, Golam Sarwar, Donna B. Schwede, Fahim I. Sidi, Tanya L. Spero, and David C. Wong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2867–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper details the scientific updates in the recently released CMAQ version 5.3 (and v5.3.1) and also includes operational and diagnostic evaluations of CMAQv5.3.1 against observations and the previous version of the CMAQ (v5.2.1). This work was done to improve the underlying science in CMAQ. This article is used to inform the CMAQ modeling community of the updates to the modeling system and the expected change in model performance from these updates (versus the previous model version).
Youhua Tang, Huisheng Bian, Zhining Tao, Luke D. Oman, Daniel Tong, Pius Lee, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Li Pan, Jun Wang, Jeffery McQueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical lateral boundary condition (CLBC) impact is essential for regional air quality prediction during intrusion events. We present a model mapping Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) CB05–AERO6 (Carbon Bond 5; version 6 of the aerosol module) species. Influence depends on distance from the inflow boundary and species and their regional characteristics. We use aerosol optical thickness to derive CLBCs, achieving reasonable prediction.
Xiaodan Ma, Jianping Huang, Tianliang Zhao, Cheng Liu, Kaihui Zhao, Jia Xing, and Wei Xiao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The present work aims at identifying and quantifying the relative contributions of the key factors in driving a rapid increase in summertime surface O3 over the North China Plain during 2013–2019. In addition to anthropogenic emission reduction and meteorological variabilities, our study highlights the importance of inclusion of aerosol absorption and scattering properties rather than aerosol abundance only in accurate assessment of aerosol radiative effect on surface O3 formation and change.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Tianfeng Chai, Ariel Stein, and Shobha Kondragunta
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10259–10277, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10259-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10259-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Smoke forecasts have been challenged by high uncertainty in fire emission estimates. We develop an inverse modeling system, the HYSPLIT-based Emissions Inverse Modeling System for wildfires, that estimates wildfire emissions from the transport and dispersion of smoke plumes as measured by satellite observations. Using NOAA HYSPLIT and GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP), the system resolves smoke source strength as a function of time and vertical level and outperforms current operational system.
Li Pan, HyunCheol Kim, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, YouHua Tang, Daniel Tong, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Chuanyu Xu, Mark G. Ruminski, Weiwei Chen, Jeff Mcqueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2169–2184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2169-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2169-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to anthropogenic emissions, emissions from wildfires are largely uncontrolled and unpredictable. Quantitatively describing wildfire emissions and their contributions to air pollution remains a substantial challenge for air quality forecasting efforts. In this study, we test the wildfire calculation algorithm used by the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) by comparison with ground, satellite and flight measurements during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field experiment.
Anna Karion, Thomas Lauvaux, Israel Lopez Coto, Colm Sweeney, Kimberly Mueller, Sharon Gourdji, Wayne Angevine, Zachary Barkley, Aijun Deng, Arlyn Andrews, Ariel Stein, and James Whetstone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2561–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2561-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2561-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use atmospheric methane concentration observations collected during an airborne campaign to compare different model-based emissions estimates from the Barnett Shale oil and natural gas production basin in Texas, USA. We find that the tracer dispersion model has a significant impact on the results because the models differ in their simulation of vertical dispersion. Additional work is needed to evaluate and improve vertical mixing in the tracer dispersion models.
Tianfeng Chai, Ariel Stein, and Fong Ngan
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5135–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While model predictions depend on release parameters, model uncertainties in inverse modeling should also vary with the source terms. In this paper, model uncertainties that will change with the source terms are introduced in a weak-constraint inverse modeling system. Tests using HYSPLIT model and CAPTEX observations show that adding such model uncertainty terms improves release rate estimates. A cost function normalization scheme introduced to avoid spurious solutions proves to be effective.
Peng Liu, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Jesper H. Christensen, Johannes Bieser, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Greg Yarwood, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, and Tanya Spero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17157–17175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study represents an intercomparison of four regional-scale air quality simulations in order to understand the model similarities and differences in estimating the impact of ozone imported from outside of the US on the surface ozone within the US at process level. Vertical turbulent mixing stands out as a primary contributor to the model differences in inert tracers.
Christopher G. Nolte, Tanya L. Spero, Jared H. Bowden, Megan S. Mallard, and Patrick D. Dolwick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15471–15489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in air pollution in the United States are simulated under three near-future climate scenarios. Widespread increases in average ozone levels are projected, with the largest increases during summer under the highest warming scenario. Increases are driven by higher temperatures and emissions from vegetation and are magnified at the upper end of the ozone distribution. The increases in ozone have potentially important implications for efforts to protect human health.
Orren Russell Bullock Jr., Hosein Foroutan, Robert C. Gilliam, and Jerold A. Herwehe
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2897–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2897-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2897-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is developing a new modeling system to investigate air pollution pathways on a global scale. We plan to use the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) to define the meteorology that affects air pollution transport and fate. In order to do so, MPAS-A must accurately reproduce historical weather conditions. This work demonstrates that our implementation of four-dimensional data assimilation by analysis nudging provides that capability.
Jun Wang, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Vijay Tallapragada, Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Shobha Kondragunta, Arlindo da Silva, Xiaoyang Zhang, Sheng-Po Chen, Shih-Wei Wei, Anton S. Darmenov, Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Prabhat Koner, and Andy Harris
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2315–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2315-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) version 2.0 for global multispecies aerosol forecast was developed at NCEP. Additional sea salt, sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosol species were included. This implementation advanced the global aerosol forecast capability and made a step forward toward developing a global aerosol data assimilation system. The aerosol products from this system have been provided to meet the stakeholder's needs.
Youhua Tang, Mariusz Pagowski, Tianfeng Chai, Li Pan, Pius Lee, Barry Baker, Rajesh Kumar, Luca Delle Monache, Daniel Tong, and Hyun-Cheol Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4743–4758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4743-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In order to evaluate the data assimilation tools for regional real-time PM2.5 forecasts, we applied a 3D-Var assimilation tool to adjust the aerosol initial condition by assimilating satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 observations for a regional air quality model, which is compared to another assimilation method, optimal interpolation. We discuss the pros and cons of these two assimilation methods based on the comparison of their 1-month four-cycles-per-day runs.
Li Pan, Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, YouHua Tang, Daniel Tong, Barry Baker, Shobha Kondragunta, Chuanyu Xu, Mark G. Ruminski, Weiwei Chen, Jeff Mcqueen, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a system accounting for fire emissions in a chemical transport model is described. The focus of this work is to qualitatively evaluate the system's capability to capture fire signals identified by multiple observation data sets. We discuss how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistic use of multiple data sets together. We also address the limitations of each of the observation data sets and of the evaluation methods.
Rohit Mathur, Jia Xing, Robert Gilliam, Golam Sarwar, Christian Hogrefe, Jonathan Pleim, George Pouliot, Shawn Roselle, Tanya L. Spero, David C. Wong, and Jeffrey Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12449–12474, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12449-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12449-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We extend CMAQ's applicability to the entire Northern Hemisphere to enable consistent examination of interactions between atmospheric processes occurring on various spatial and temporal scales. Improvements were made in model process representation, structure, and input data sets that enable a range of model applications including episodic intercontinental pollutant transport, long-term trends in air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere, and air pollution–climate interactions.
Min Huang, Gregory R. Carmichael, James H. Crawford, Armin Wisthaler, Xiwu Zhan, Christopher R. Hain, Pius Lee, and Alex B. Guenther
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3085–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3085-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3085-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Various sensitivity simulations during two airborne campaigns were performed to assess the impact of different initialization methods and model resolutions on NUWRF-modeled weather states, heat fluxes, and the follow-on MEGAN isoprene emission calculations. Proper land initialization is shown to be important to the coupled weather modeling and the follow-on emission modeling, which is also critical to accurately representing other processes in air quality modeling and data assimilation.
Chaopeng Hong, Qiang Zhang, Yang Zhang, Youhua Tang, Daniel Tong, and Kebin He
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2447–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2447-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A regional coupled climate–chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established and evaluated. The modeling system performed well for both the climatological and the short-term air quality applications over east Asia. Regional models outperformed global models in regional climate and air quality predictions. The coupled modeling system improved the model performance, although some biases remained in the aerosol–cloud–radiation variables.
K. Wyat Appel, Sergey L. Napelenok, Kristen M. Foley, Havala O. T. Pye, Christian Hogrefe, Deborah J. Luecken, Jesse O. Bash, Shawn J. Roselle, Jonathan E. Pleim, Hosein Foroutan, William T. Hutzell, George A. Pouliot, Golam Sarwar, Kathleen M. Fahey, Brett Gantt, Robert C. Gilliam, Nicholas K. Heath, Daiwen Kang, Rohit Mathur, Donna B. Schwede, Tanya L. Spero, David C. Wong, and Jeffrey O. Young
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1703–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system. The CMAQ model is used extensively throughout the world to simulate air pollutants for many purposes, including regulatory and air quality forecasting applications. This work describes the scientific updates made to the latest version of the CMAQ modeling system (CMAQv5.1) and presents an evaluation of the new model against observations and results from the previous model version.
Tianfeng Chai, Alice Crawford, Barbara Stunder, Michael J. Pavolonis, Roland Draxler, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2865–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2865-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
An inverse system based on the HYSPLIT dispersion model has been built to estimate volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations. Using MODIS retrievals from the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds, three options for matching model results to satellite mass loadings are tested. They all show decent skill. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Soontae Kim, Seok-Woo Son, Pius Lee, Chun-Sil Jin, Eunhye Kim, Byeong-Uk Kim, Fong Ngan, Changhan Bae, Chang-Keun Song, and Ariel Stein
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-673, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, frequent occurrence of severe haze events in East Asia is one of the most serious public concerns in this region. We demonstrate that daily pollutant transport patterns in East Asia are visible from satellite images when inspected with corresponding synoptic weather analyses. Our manuscript focuses on the possible role of meteorology, especially by the routine passages of synoptic systems, on the production and removal of regional pollution in East Asia.
Cheng-Hsuan Lu, Arlindo da Silva, Jun Wang, Shrinivas Moorthi, Mian Chin, Peter Colarco, Youhua Tang, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Shen-Po Chen, Hui-Ya Chuang, Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Jeffery McQueen, and Mark Iredell
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1905-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1905-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols have an important effect on the Earth's climate and implications for public health. NASA has partnered with NOAA to transfer GOCART aerosol model to NCEP, enabling the first global aerosol forecasting system at NOAA/NCEP. This collaboration reflects an effective research-to-operation transition, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders and to allow the effects of aerosols on weather and climate prediction to be considered.
Hyun Cheol Kim, Pius Lee, Laura Judd, Li Pan, and Barry Lefer
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1111–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1111-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Fair comparison between satellite- and modeled urban NO2 column densities is important in emission inventory evaluation and regulation policy making. This study focuses on the impact of satellite footprint resolution geometry. Since OMI NO2 pixels are too coarse to resolve fine-scale urban plumes, it may cause 20–30 % bias over major cities. We introduce approaches to adjust spatial and vertical structure (downscaling & averaging kernel), and demonstrate improved agreement between sat. and model.
M. Huang, D. Tong, P. Lee, L. Pan, Y. Tang, I. Stajner, R. B. Pierce, J. McQueen, and J. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12595–12610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed Arizona dust records in 2005-2013 using multiple surface and remote sensing observation data sets. The inter-annual variability of dust events was anticorrelated with three drought indicators (PDSI, satellite NDVI and soil moisture), and stronger dust activity was found in the afternoon than in the morning due to stronger winds and drier soil. Impact of a recent dust event accompanied by a stratospheric ozone intrusion was evaluated with various observational and modeling data sets.
H. C. Kim, P. Lee, F. Ngan, Y. Tang, H. L. Yoo, and L. Pan
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2959–2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2959-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2959-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the evaluation of regional air quality model's performance based on the cloud information from satellites. While cloud information is crucial in photochemistry model, the definitions of cloud fraction from model and satellite are not physically consistent. We demonstrate that improper modeling of cloud fraction is correlated with surface ozone bias, and we also show that current model cloud field might be too bright, causing an overestimation of surface ozone level.
P. A. Cleary, N. Fuhrman, L. Schulz, J. Schafer, J. Fillingham, H. Bootsma, J. McQueen, Y. Tang, T. Langel, S. McKeen, E. J. Williams, and S. S. Brown
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5109–5122, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5109-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines ozone mixing ratios over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Over water, ozone was determined to be an average of 3.8ppb higher than shoreline observations but overpredicted by the CMAQ model by as much as 11-16ppb midday.
M. S. Mallard, C. G. Nolte, T. L. Spero, O. R. Bullock, K. Alapaty, J. A. Herwehe, J. Gula, and J. H. Bowden
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1085–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1085-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1085-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Because global climate models (GCMs) are typically run at coarse spatial resolution, lakes are often poorly resolved in their global fields. When downscaling such GCMs using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model, use of WRF’s default interpolation methods can result in unrealistic lake temperatures and ice cover, which can impact simulated air temperatures and precipitation. Here, alternative methods for setting lake variables in WRF downscaling applications are presented and compared.
T. Chai, H.-C. Kim, P. Lee, D. Tong, L. Pan, Y. Tang, J. Huang, J. McQueen, M. Tsidulko, and I. Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1831-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1831-2013, 2013
R. D. Saylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 693–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-693-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-693-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
Mitigating Hail Overforecasting in the 2-Moment Milbrandt-Yau Microphysics Scheme (v2.25.2_beta_04) in WRF (v4.5.1) by Incorporating the Graupel Spongy Wet Growth Process (MY2_GSWG v1.0)
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
Quantifying uncertainties in satellite NO2 superobservations for data assimilation and model evaluation
ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Simulation of the heat mitigation potential of unsealing measures in cities by parameterizing grass grid pavers for urban microclimate modelling with ENVI-met (V5)
AI-NAOS: an AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme for the chemical weather model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
Modelling extensive green roof CO2 exchanges in the TEB urban canopy model
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing to FAIRMODE’s MQO
Modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales: model development (IAP-AACM_PAH v1.0) and investigation of health risks in 2013 and 2018 in China
LIMA (v2.0): A full two-moment cloud microphysical scheme for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH v5-6
A dynamical process-based model for quantifying global agricultural ammonia emissions – AMmonia–CLIMate v1.0 (AMCLIM v1.0) – Part 2: livestock farming
Least travel time ray tracer, version Two (LTT v2) adapted to the grid geometry of the OpenIFS atmospheric model
SLUCM+BEM (v1.0): a simple parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption in WRF-Urban (v4.3.2)
Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM2.5 chemical components
Source-specific bias correction of US background and anthropogenic ozone modeled in CMAQ
Observational operator for fair model evaluation with ground NO2 measurements
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Shaofeng Hua, Gang Chen, Baojun Chen, Mingshan Li, and Xin Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3834, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hail forecasting using numerical models remains a challenge. In this study, we found that the commonly used graupel-to-hail conversion parameterization method led to hail overforecasting in heavy rainfall cases where no hail was observed. By incorporating the spongy wet growth process, we successfully mitigated hail overforecasting. The modified scheme also produced hail in real hail events. This research contributes to a better understanding of hail formation.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Aurélien Mirebeau, Cécile de Munck, Bertrand Bonan, Christine Delire, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, and Stephan Weber
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-233, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The greening of cities is recommended to limit the effects of climate change. In particular, green roofs can provide numerous environmental benefits, such as urban cooling, water retention and carbon sequestration. The aim of this research is to develop a new module for calculating green roof CO2 fluxes within a model that can already simulate hydrological and thermal processes of such roofs. The calibration and evaluation of this module take advantage of long term experimental data.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, Aimable Uwizeye, Giuseppe Tempio, Alessandra Falcucci, Flavia Casu, and Mark A. Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from livestock farming. It is estimated that about 30 % of excreted N from livestock was lost due to NH3 emissions from housing, manure management and land application of manure. High NH3 volatilization often occurred in hot regions, while poor management practices also result in significant N losses through NH3 emissions.
Maksym Vasiuta, Angel Navarro Trastoy, Sanam Motlaghzadeh, Lauri Tuppi, Torsten Mayer-Gürr, and Heikki Järvinen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-136, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Propagation of electromagnetic signals in the Earth's neutral atmosphere inflicts errors in space geodetic observations. To model these errors as accurately as possible, it is necessary to use a signal ray tracing algorithm which is informed of the state of the atmosphere. We developed such algorithm and tested it by modelling errors in GNSS network observations. Our algorithm's main advantage is loss-less utilization of atmospheric information provided by numerical weather prediction models.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3721, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in the turbulent environments with hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventory and ecosystem exchanges. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate a strong potential of DALES to enhance CO2 emission modeling, which is important for refining their reduction strategies.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Cited articles
Alexander, B., Park, R. J., Jacob, D. J., and Gong, S.: Transition
metal-catalyzed oxidation of atmospheric sulfur: global implications for the
sulfur budget, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02309,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010486, 2009.
American Lung Association: Urban air pollution and health inequities: a
workshop report, Environ Health Perspect., 109 Suppl 3, 357–374, PMID: 11427385, PMCID:
PMC1240553, https://doi.org/10.2307/3434783, 2001.
Appel, K. W., Gilliam, R.C., Davis, N., Zubrow, A., and Howard, S. C.:
Overview of the atmospheric model evaluation tool (amet) v1.1 for evaluating
meteorological and air quality models, Environ. Model. Softw., 26 434–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.09.007, 2011.
Appel, K. W., Bash, J. O., Fahey, K. M., Foley, K. M., Gilliam, R. C., Hogrefe, C., Hutzell, W. T., Kang, D., Mathur, R., Murphy, B. N., Napelenok, S. L., Nolte, C. G., Pleim, J. E., Pouliot, G. A., Pye, H. O. T., Ran, L., Roselle, S. J., Sarwar, G., Schwede, D. B., Sidi, F. I., Spero, T. L., and Wong, D. C.: The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model versions 5.3 and 5.3.1: system updates and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2867–2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2867-2021, 2021.
Astitha, M., Luo, H., Rao, S. T., Hogrefe, C., Mathur, R., and Kumar, N.:
Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the
contiguous United States, Atmos. Environ., 164, 102–116,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.05.020, 2017.
Bai, L., Wang, J., Ma, X., and Lu, H.: Air Pollution Forecasts:
An Overview, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 15, 780, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15040780, 2018.
Baker, B. and Pan, L.: Overview of the Model and Observation Evaluation
Toolkit (MONET) Version 1.0 for Evaluating Atmospheric Transport Models, Atmosphere, 8, 210, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110210, 2017.
Bash, J. O., Walker, J. T., Katul, G. G., Jones, M. R., Nemitz, E., and
Robarge, W. P.: Estimation of In-Canopy Ammonia Sources and Sinks in a
Fertilized Zea mays Field, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 1683–1689, https://doi.org/10.1021/es9037269, 2010.
Bash, J. O., Cooter, E. J., Dennis, R. L., Walker, J. T., and Pleim, J. E.: Evaluation of a regional air-quality model with bidirectional NH3 exchange coupled to an agroecosystem model, Biogeosciences, 10, 1635–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1635-2013, 2013.
Bash, J. O., Baker, K. R., and Beaver, M. R.: Evaluation of improved land use and canopy representation in BEIS v3.61 with biogenic VOC measurements in California, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2191–2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2191-2016, 2016.
Binkowski, F. S, Arunachalam, S., Adelman, Z., and Pinto, J.: Examining
photolysis rates with a prototype on-line photolysis module in
CMAQ, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46,
1252–1256, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2531.1, 2007.
Black, T. L.: The new NMC meso-scale Eta Model: description and forecast
examples, Weather Forecast., 9, 265–278,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0265:TNNMEM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Bonan, G. B., Patton, E. G., Finnigan, J. J., Baldocchi, D. D., and Harman,
I. N.: Moving beyond the incorrect but useful paradigm: reevaluating
big-leaf and multilayer plant canopies to model biosphere-atmosphere fluxes
– a review, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 306, 108435,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108435, 2021.
Briggs, G. A.: A plume rise model compared with
observations, J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc., 15,
433–438, https://doi.org/10.1080/00022470.1965.10468404, 1965.
Byun, D. and Schere, K. L.: Review of the governing equations, computational
algorithms, and other components of the models-3 community multiscale air
quality (CMAQ) modeling system, Appl. Mech. Rev., 59, 51–77, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2128636, 2006.
Byun, D. W. and Ching, J. K. S.: Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3
Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, EPA/600/R-99/030,
Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency,
https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=63400&Lab=NERL (last access: 5 April 2022), 1999.
Campbell, G. S. and Norman J. M.: An introduction to environmental
biophysics, Springer, 5, ISBN 978-0-387-94937-6, 1998.
Campbell, P., Zhang, Y., Yahya, K., Wang, K., Hogrefe, C., Pouliot, G., Knote, C., Hodzic, A., San Jose, R., Perez, J., Guerrero, P., Baro, R., and Makar, P.: A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the
Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over
North America: Part I. Indicators of the Sensitivity of O3 and PM2.5
Formation Regimes, Atmos. Environ., 115, 569–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.026, 2015.
Campbell, P. C.: The NOAA-EPA Atmosphere-Chemistry Coupler (NACC), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507489, 2021a.
Campbell, P. C.: The Advanced National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507511, 2021b.
Campbell, P. C., Bash, J. O., and Spero, T. L.: Updates to the Noah land
surface model in WRF-CMAQ to improve simulated meteorology, air quality, and
deposition, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 231–256.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001422 2019.
Campbell, P. C., Tong, D., Tang, Y., Baker, B., Lee, P., Saylor, R., Stein, A., Ma, S., and Qu, Z.:
Impacts of the COVID-19 Economic Slowdown on Ozone Pollution in the U.S., Atmos. Environ., 264, 118713, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118713,
2021.
Chen, F. and Dudhia, J.: Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model
with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation
and sensitivity, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 569–585,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Chen, J.-H. and Lin, S.-J.: The remarkable predictability of inter-annual
variability of Atlantic hurricanes during the past decade, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11804,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047629, 2011.
Chen, J.-H. and Lin, S.-J.: Seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones using a
25 km-resolution general circulation model, J. Climate, 26, 380–398,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00061.1, 2013.
Chen, J.-H., Lin, S.-J., Zhou, L., Chen, X., Rees, S. L., Bender, M., and
Morin, M.: Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Next Generation
Global Prediction System, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3409–3428,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0227.1, 2019.
Chen, X., Andronova, N., Van Leer, B., Penner, J. E., Boyd, J. P.,
Jablonowski, C., and Lin, S.: A Control-Volume Model of the Compressible
Euler Equations with a Vertical Lagrangian Coordinate, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2526–2544,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00129.1, 2013.
Chen, X., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Tong, D., Lee, P., Tang, Y., Huang, J., Campbell, P. C., Mcqueen, J., Pye, H. O. T., Murphy, B. N., and Kang, D.: Evaluation of the offline-coupled GFSv15–FV3–CMAQv5.0.2 in support of the next-generation National Air Quality Forecast Capability over the contiguous United States, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3969–3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3969-2021, 2021.
Chin, M., Rood, R. B., Lin, S.-J., Muller, J. F., and Thomspon, A. M.:
Atmospheric sulfur cycle in the global model GOCART: Model description and
global properties, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24671–24687,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900384, 2000.
Chin, M., Ginoux, P., Kinne, S., Holben, B. N., Duncan,
B. N., Martin, R. V., Logan, J. A., Akiko, H., and Nakajima, T.: Tropospheric aerosol optical thickness from the GOCART model and
comparisons with satellite and sun photometer measurements, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 461–483,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<0461:TAOTFT>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Chinese State Council: Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Guo
Fa [2013] No. 37,
http://en.cleanairchina.org/file/loadFile/26.html (last access: 5 April 2022), 2013.
Clough, S. A., Shephard, M. W., Mlawer, J. E., Delamere,
J. S., Iacono, M. J., Cady-Pereira, K., Boukabara, S., and Brown, P. D.: Atmospheric radiative transfer modeling: A
summary of the AER codes, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Ra., 91, 233–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.05.058, 2005.
Cooter, E. J., Bash, J. O., Walker, J. T., Jones, M. R., and Robarge, W.:
Estimation of NH3 bi-directional flux from managed agricultural soils, Atmos. Environ.,
44, 2107–2115,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.02.044, 2010.
Cooter, E. J., Bash, J. O., Benson, V., and Ran, L.: Linking agricultural crop management and air quality models for regional to national-scale nitrogen assessments, Biogeosciences, 9, 4023–4035, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4023-2012, 2012.
Demetriou, C. A. and Vineis, P.: Carcinogenicity of ambient air pollution:
use of biomarkers, lessons learnt and future directions, J. Thorac. Dis.,
7, 67–95, https://doi.org/10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2014.12.31, 2015.
Ding, H. and Zhu, Y.: NDE Vegetation Products System Algorithm Theoretical
Basis Document, Version 4.0. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO, https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/documents/GVF_ATBD_V4.0.pdf (last access: 2 February 2021), 2018.
Dong, X., Fu, J. S., Huang, K., Tong, D., and Zhuang, G.: Model development of dust emission and heterogeneous chemistry within the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and its application over East Asia, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8157–8180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8157-2016, 2016.
Driemel, A., Augustine, J., Behrens, K., Colle, S., Cox, C., Cuevas-Agulló, E., Denn, F. M., Duprat, T., Fukuda, M., Grobe, H., Haeffelin, M., Hodges, G., Hyett, N., Ijima, O., Kallis, A., Knap, W., Kustov, V., Long, C. N., Longenecker, D., Lupi, A., Maturilli, M., Mimouni, M., Ntsangwane, L., Ogihara, H., Olano, X., Olefs, M., Omori, M., Passamani, L., Pereira, E. B., Schmithüsen, H., Schumacher, S., Sieger, R., Tamlyn, J., Vogt, R., Vuilleumier, L., Xia, X., Ohmura, A., and König-Langlo, G.: Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN): structure and data description (1992–2017), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1491–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1491-2018, 2018.
Eder, B., Kang, D., Mathur, R., Yu, S., and Schere, K.: An operational
evaluation of the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast
model, Atmos. Environ., 40, 4894–4905,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.12.062, 2006.
Eder, B., Kang, D., Mathur, R., Pleim, J., Yu, S., Otte, T., and Pouliot,
G.: A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability
for the summer of 2007, Atmos. Environ., 43, 2312–2320,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.01.033, 2009.
Ek, M., Mitchell, B. K. E., Lin, Y., Rogers, E., Grunmann, P., Koren,
V., Gayno, G., and Tarpley, J. D.: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model, J. Geophys. Res.,
108, 8851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003296, 2003.
Emery, C., Liu, Z., Russell, A. G., Odman, M. T., Yarwood, G., and Kumar,
N.: Recommendations on statistics and benchmarks to assess photochemical
model performance, J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 67, 582–598,
https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2016.1265027, 2017.
Finkelstein, M. M., Jerrett, M., DeLuca, P., Finkelstein, N., Verma, D. K.,
Chapman, K., and Sears, M. R.: Relation between income, air pollution and
mortality: A cohort study, Can. Med. Assoc. J., 169, 397-402, 2003.
Fu, X., Wang, S. X., Cheng, Z., Xing, J., Zhao, B., Wang, J. D., and Hao, J. M.: Source, transport and impacts of a heavy dust event in the Yangtze River Delta, China, in 2011, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1239–1254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1239-2014, 2014.
Gantt, B., Kelly, J. T., and Bash, J. O.: Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3733–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3733-2015, 2015.
Ginoux, P., Chin, M., Tegen, I., Prospero, J., Holben, B., Dubovik, O., and
Lin, S.-J.: Sources and global distributions of dust aerosols simulated with
the GOCART model, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 20255–20273, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000053, 2001.
Grell, G. A., Dudhia, J., and Stauffer, D. R.: A description of the
fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR tech. Note NCAR
TN-398-1-STR, 117 pp., https://doi.org/10.5065/D60Z716B, 1994.
Han, J. and Pan, H.-L.: Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion
Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System, Weather Forecast., 26, 520–533, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05038.1, 2011.
Han, J. and Bretherton, C. S.: TKE-Based Moist Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux
(EDMF) Parameterization for Vertical Turbulent Mixing, Weather Forecast., 34, 869–886,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0046.1, 2019.
Han, J., Wang, W., Kwon, Y. C., Hong, S.-Y., Tallapragada, V., and Yang,
F.: Updates in the NCEP GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes with Scale and
Aerosol Awareness, Weather Forecast., 32, 2005–2017,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0046.1, 2017.
Harris, L. M. and Lin, S.: A Two-Way Nested Global-Regional Dynamical Core on
the Cubed-Sphere Grid, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 283–306,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00201.1, 2013.
Harris, L. M., Lin, S., and Tu, C.: High-Resolution Climate Simulations Using
GFDL HiRAM with a Stretched Global Grid, J. Climate, 29, 4293–4314,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0389.1, 2016.
Huang, J. and McQueen, J.: Development and evaluation of offline
coupling of FV3-based GFS with CMAQ at NOAA, The 17th CMAS Conference,
22–24 October 2018, UNC-Chapel Hill, NC, 2018.
Huang, J., McQueen, J., Yang, B., Shafran, P., Huang, H.-C., Bhattacharjee,
P., Tang, Y., Campbell, P. C., Tong, D., Lee, P., Stajner, I., Kain, J. S., Tirado-Delgado, J., and Koch, D. M.: A comparison of global scale FV3 versus regional scale NAM
meteorological drivers for regional air quality forecastin, The 100th AGU
Fall Meeting, 9–13 December 2019, San Francisco, CA, 2019.
Huang, M., Tong, D., Lee, P., Pan, L., Tang, Y., Stajner, I., Pierce, R. B., McQueen, J., and Wang, J.: Toward enhanced capability for detecting and predicting dust events in the western United States: the Arizona case study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12595–12610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12595-2015, 2015.
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S.
A., and Collins, W. B.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:
Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13103,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Institute of Medicine: Toward Environmental Justice: Research, Education,
and Health Policy Needs, Washington, DC, National Academy Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/6034, 1999.
Janjic, Z. and Gall, R. L.: Scientific documentation of the NCEP
nonhydrostatic multiscale model on the B grid (NMMB), Part 1 Dynamics (No.
NCAR/TN-489+STR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,
https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WH2MZX, 2012.
Jimenez, P. A., Dudhia, J., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Montavez, J.
P., and Garcia-Bustamante, E.: A revised scheme for the WRF surface layer
formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012.
Kang, D., Eder, B. K., Stein, A. F., Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., and
McHenry, J.: The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program:
Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark, J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 55,
1782–1796, https://doi.org/10.1080/10473289.2005.10464775,
2005.
Karamchandani, P., Long, Y., Pirovano, G., Balzarini, A., and Yarwood, G.: Source-sector contributions to European ozone and fine PM in 2010 using AQMEII modeling data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5643–5664, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5643-2017, 2017.
Kar Kurt, O., Zhang, J., and Pinkerton, K. E.: Pulmonary Health Effects of
Air Pollution, Curr. Opin. Pulm. Med., 22, 138–143,
https://doi.org/10.1097/MCP.0000000000000248, 2016.
Kelly, J. T., Bhave, P. V., Nolte, C. G., Shankar, U., and Foley, K. M.: Simulating emission and chemical evolution of coarse sea-salt particles in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-257-2010, 2010.
Kim, Y., Sartelet, K., and Seigneur, C.: Formation of secondary aerosols over Europe: comparison of two gas-phase chemical mechanisms, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 583–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-583-2011, 2011a.
Kim, Y., Couvidat, F., Sartelet, K., and Seigneur, C.: Comparison of
different gas phase mechanisms and aerosol modules for simulating
particulate matter
formation, J. Air Waste Manage., 61, 1218e1226,
https://doi.org/10.1080/10473289.2011.603999, 2011b.
Krueger, S. K., Fu, Q., Liou, K. N., and Chin, H.-N. S.: Improvement of an
ice-phase microphysics parameterization for use in numerical simulations of
tropical convection, J. Appl. Meteorol., 34, 281–287, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450-34.1.281, 1995.
Landrigan, P. J., Fuller, R., Acosta, N. J., Adeyi, O., Arnold, R.,
Basu, N., Bibi Balde, A., Bertollini, R. Bose-O'Reilly, S., Boufford, J. I.., Breysse, P. N., Chiles, T., Mahidol, C., Coll-Seck, A. M., Cropper, M. L., Fobil, J., Fuster, V., Greenstone, M., Haines, A., Hanrahan, D., Hunter, D., Khare, M., Krupnick, A., Lanphear, B., Lohani, B., Martin, K., Mathiasen, K., McTeer, M. A., Murray, C. J. L., Ndahimananjara, J. D., Perera, F., Potocnik, J., Preker, A. S., Ramesh, J., Rockstrom, J., Salinas, C., Samson, L. D., Sandilya, K., Sly, P. D., Smith, K. R., Steiner, A., Stewart, R. B., Suk, W. A., van Schayck, O. C. P., Yadama, G. N., Yumkella, K., and Zhong, M.: The Lancet Commission on pollution and health, Lancet, 391, 462–512,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32345-0, 2018.
Lee, B.-J., Kim, B., and Lee, K.: Air Pollution Exposure and Cardiovascular
Disease, Toxicol Res.-UK, 30, 71–75, https://doi.org/10.5487/TR.2014.30.2.071, 2014.
Lee, P., McQueen, J., Stajner, I., Huang, J., Pan, L., Tong, D., Kim, H., Tang, Y., Kondragunta, S., Ruminski, M., Lu, S., Rogers, E., Saylor, R., Shafran, P., Huang, H.-C., Gorline, J., Upadhayay, S., and Artz, R.:
NAQFC Developmental Forecast Guidance for Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5),
Weather Forecast., 32, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0163.1,
2017.
Lin, S.: A “Vertically Lagrangian” Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for
Global Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2293–2307,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2293:AVLFDC>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Lin, S. and Rood, R. B.: Multidimensional Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian
Transport Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 2046–2070,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2046:MFFSLT>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Lin, S., Chao, W. C., Sud, Y. C., and Walker, G. K.: A Class of the van
Leer-type Transport Schemes and Its Application to the Moisture Transport in
a General Circulation Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 1575–1593,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1575:ACOTVL>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Lin, Y.-L., Farley, R. D., and Orville, H. D.: Bulk parameterization of the
snow field in a cloud model, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 1065–1092, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<1065:BPOTSF>2.0.CO;2, 1983.
Liu, Y. and Wang, T.: Worsening urban ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2017 – Part 1: The complex and varying roles of meteorology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6305–6321, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6305-2020, 2020.
Lord, S. J., Willoughby, H. E., and Piotrowicz, J. M.: Role of a
parameterized ice-phase microphysics in an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic
tropical cyclone model, J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 2836–2848,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<2836:ROAPIP>2.0.CO;2, 1984.
Makar, P. A., Staebler, R., Akingunola, A., Zhang, J., McLinden, C.,
Kharol, S. K., Pabla, B., Cheung, P., and Zheng, Q.: The effects of forest canopy shading and turbulence on
boundary layer ozone, Nat Commun., 8, 15243,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15243, 2017.
Makar, P. A., Stroud, C., Akingunola, A., Zhang, J., Ren, S., Cheung, P., and Zheng, Q.: Vehicle-induced turbulence and atmospheric pollution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12291–12316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12291-2021, 2021.
Marlier, M. E., Jina, A. S., Kinney, P. L., and DeFries, R. S.: Extreme Air
Pollution in Global Megacities, Curr Clim Change Rep., 2, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0032-z, 2016.
Martin, R. L. and Good, T. W.: Catalyzed oxidation of sulfur dioxide in
solution: the iron-manganese synergism, Atmos. Environ., 25A, 2395–2399, https://doi.org/10.1016/0960-1686(91)90113-L, 1991.
Massad, R.-S., Nemitz, E., and Sutton, M. A.: Review and parameterisation of bi-directional ammonia exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10359–10386, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-10359-2010, 2010.
Mathur, R., Yu, S., Kang, D., and Schere, K. L.: Assessment of the
wintertime performance of developmental particulate matter forecasts with
the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02303,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008580, 2008.
Matthias, V., Arndt, J. A., Aulinger, A., Bieser, J., Denier
van der Gon, H., Kranenburg, R., Kuenen, J., Neumann, D., Pouliot, G., and Quante, M.: Modeling emissions for three-dimensional
atmospheric chemistry transport models, J. Air Waste Manage., 68, 763–800, https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2018.1424057, 2018.
McKeen, S., Wilczak, J., Grell, G., Djalova, I., Peckham, S.,
Hsie, E.-Y., Gong, W., Bouchet, V., Menard, S., Moffet, R., McHenry, J., McQueen, J., Tang, Y., Carmichael, G. R., Pagowski, M., Chan, A., Dye, T., Frost, G., Lee, P., and Mathur, R.: Assessment of an ensemble of seven real-time ozone forecasts over
eastern North America during the summer of 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21307,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005858, 2005.
McKeen, S., Chung, S. H., Wilczak, J., Grell, G., Djalalova,
I., Peckham, S., Gong, W., Bouchet, V., Moffet, R., Tang, Y., Carmichael, G. R., Mathur, R., and Yu, S.: Evaluation of several PM2.5 forecast models
using data collected during the
ICARTT/NEAQS 2004 field study, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10S20,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007608, 2007.
McKeen, S., Grell, G., Peckham, S., Wilczak, J., Djalalova,
I., Hsie, E., Frost, G., Peischl, J., Schwartz, J., Spackman, R., Holloway, J., de Gouw, J., Warneke, C., Gong, W., Bouchet, V., Gaudreault, S., Racine, J., McHenry, J., McQueen, J., Lee, P., Tang, Y., Carmichael, G. R., and Mathur, R.: An evaluation of real-time air quality forecasts and their urban
emissions over eastern Texas during the summer of 2006 Second Texas Air
Quality Study field study, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00F11,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011697, 2009.
Miller, J., Safford, H., Crimmins, M., and Thode, A.: Quantitative evidence
for increasing forest fire severity in the Sierra Nevada and Southern
Cascade Mountains, California and Nevada, USA, Ecosystems, 12, 16–32,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-008-9201-9, 2009.
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S.
A.: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RTTM, a validated
correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16663–16682,
https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997.
Monin, A. S. and Obukhov, A. M.: Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the
surface layer of the atmosphere, Tr. Akad. Nauk SSSR Geophiz. Inst., 24, 163–187, 1954 (in Russian).
Myneni, R. and Knyazikhin, Y.: VIIRS/NPP Leaf Area Index/FPAR 8-Day L4
Global 500m SIN Grid V001, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5067/VIIRS/VNP15A2H.001, 2018.
National Emissions Inventory (NEIC): NEI 2014v2 Emissions, U.S. EPA Repository [data set],
https://edap.epa.gov/public/extensions/nei_report_2014/dashboard.html#sector-db (last access: 26 February 2020), 2014.
National Emissions Inventory Collaborative (NEI): 2016v1 Emissions
Modeling Platform [data set], http://views.cira.colostate.edu/wiki/wiki/10202 (last access: 5 April 2022), 2019.
Nemitz, E., Sutton, M. A., Schjoerring, J. K., Husted, S., and Wyers, G. P.:
Resistance modelling of ammonia exchange over oilseed rape, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 105,
405–425, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00206-9, 2000.
Niinemets, Ü., Arneth, A., Kuhn, U., Monson, R. K., Peñuelas, J., and Staudt, M.: The emission factor of volatile isoprenoids: stress, acclimation, and developmental responses, Biogeosciences, 7, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2203-2010, 2010.
NOAA/NWS: Global Forecast System (GFS) Version 16 [data set], https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/, last access: 5 April 2022a.
NOAA/NWS: Air Quality Forecast Guidance – Operational [data set], https://airquality.weather.gov/, last access: 5 April 2022b.
NOAA/NWS: Air Quality Forecast Guidance – Experimental [data set], https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/airquality/, last access: 5 April 2022c.
NOAA/NWS: Operational CMAQ Verification – Experimental [data set], https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/verification_diagnostics/cmaq_verf/ last access: 5 April 2022d.
O’Neill, M. S., Jerrett, M., Kawachi, I., Levy, J. I., Cohen, A. J.,
Gouveia, N., Wilkinson, P., Fletcher, T., Cifuentes, L., and Schwartz, J.: Health, wealth, and air pollution: Advancing theory and methods,
Environ. Health Persp., 111, 1861–1870, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.6334, 2003.
Otte, T. L. and Pleim, J. E.: The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the CMAQ modeling system: updates through MCIPv3.4.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 243–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-243-2010, 2010.
Otte, T. L., Pouliot, G., Pleim, J. E., Young, J. O., Schere, K. L.,
Wong, D. C., Lee, P., Tsidulko, M., McQueen, J., Davidson, P., Mathur, R., Chuang, H.-Y., DiMego, G., and Seaman, N. L.: Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air
Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting
System, Weather Forecast., 20, 367–384,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF855.1, 2005.
Pinder, R. W., Dennis, R. L., and Bhave, P. V.: Observable indicators of the
sensitivity of PM2.5 nitrate to emission reductions: part I. Derivation of
the adjusted gas
ratio and applicability at regulatory-relevant time scales, Atmos. Environ., 42,
1275e1286, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.10.039,
2008.
Pleim, J. and Ran, L.: Surface flux modeling for air quality applications,
Atmosphere, 2, 271–302, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos2030271, 2011.
Pleim, J. E.: A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the
atmospheric boundary layer. Part I: Model description and testing, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46,
1383–1395, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2539.1, 2007a.
Pleim, J. E.: A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the
atmospheric boundary layer. Part II: Application and evaluation in a
mesoscale meteorological model, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46, 1396–1409,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2534.1, 2007b.
Pleim, J. E., Bash, J. O., Walker, J. T., and Cooter, E. J.: Development and
evaluation of an ammonia bidirectional flux parameterization for air quality
models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3794–3806, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50262,
2013.
Pleim, J. E., Ran, L., Appel, W., Shephard, M. W., and Cady-Pereira, K.: New
bidirectional ammonia flux model in an air quality model coupled with an
agricultural model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 2934–2957,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001728, 2019.
Powers, J. G., Klemp, J. B., Skamarock, W. C., Davis, C.
A., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Coen, J. L., Gochis, D. J., Ahmadov, R., Peckham, S. E., Grell, G. A., Michalakes, J., Trahan, S., Benjamin, S. G., Alexander, C. R., Dimego, G. J., Wang, W., Schwartz, C. S., Romine, G. S., Liu, Z., Snyder, C., Chen, F., Barlarge, M., Yu, M., and Duda, M.: The weather research and forecasting model: Overview,
system efforts, and future directions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1717–1737,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00308.1, 2017.
Putman, W. M. and Lin, S.-J.: Finite-volume transport on various
cubed-sphere grids, J. Comput. Phys., 227, 55–78,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.07.022, 2007.
Pye, H. O. T., Pinder, R. W., Piletic, I., Xie, Y., Capps,
S. L., Lin, Y.-H., Surratt, J. D., Zhang, Z., Gold, A., Luecken, D. J., Hutzell, W. T., Jaoui, M., Offenberg, J. H., Kleindienst, T. E., Lewandowski, M., and Edney, E. O.: Epoxide pathways improve model predictions of isoprene markers and
reveal key role of acidity in aerosol formation, Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 11056–11064,
https://doi.org/10.1021/es402106h, 2013.
Pye, H. O. T., Murphy, B. N., Xu, L., Ng, N. L., Carlton, A. G., Guo, H., Weber, R., Vasilakos, P., Appel, K. W., Budisulistiorini, S. H., Surratt, J. D., Nenes, A., Hu, W., Jimenez, J. L., Isaacman-VanWertz, G., Misztal, P. K., and Goldstein, A. H.: On the implications of aerosol liquid water and phase separation for organic aerosol mass, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 343–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-343-2017, 2017.
Ran, L., Cooter, E., Benson, V., and He, Q.: Development of an agricultural
fertilizer modeling system for bi-directional ammonia fluxes in the CMAQ
model, edited by: Steyn, D. G. and Castelli, S. T., Air Pollution Modeling
and its Application XXI, Chapter 36, Dordrecht, Springer,
213–219, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1359-8_36, 2011.
Ran, L., Pleim, J., Gilliam, R., Binkowski, F. S., Hogrefe, C., and Band,
L.: Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS
vegetation and albedo, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 2393–2415, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024406, 2016.
Rogers, E., Black, T., Deaven, D., DiMego, G., Zhao,
Q., Baldwin, M., Junker, N. W., and Lin, Y.:
Changes to the operational “early” Eta Analysis/Forecast System at the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Weather Forecast., 11 391–413, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0391:CTTOEA>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Sarwar, G., Fahey, K., Napelenok, S., Roselle, S., and Mathur, R.: Examining
the impact of CMAQ model updates on aerosol sulfate predictions, The 10th
Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, 24–26 October 2011, Chapel Hill, NC, 2011.
Sarwar, G., Gantt, B., Foley, K., Fahey, K., Spero, T. L., Kang, D., Mathur, R., Foroutan, H., Xing, J., Sherwen, T., and Saiz-Lopez, A.:
Influence of bromine and iodine chemistry on annual, seasonal, diurnal, and
background ozone: CMAQ simulations over the Northern Hemisphere, Atmos. Environ., 213,
395–404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.06.020, 2019.
Schwede, D., Pouliot, G. A., and Pierce, T.: Changes to the Biogenic
Emissions Inventory System Version 3 (BEIS3), in: Proceedings of the 4th CMAS
Models-3 Users' Conference, 26–28 September 2005, Chapel Hill, NC, 2005.
Sillman, S.: The use of NOy, H2O2, and HNO3 as indicators for
ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon sensitivity in urban locations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 14175–14188,
https://doi.org/10.1029/94JD02953, 1995.
Sillman, S.: The relation between ozone, NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and
polluted rural environments, Atmos. Environ., 33, 1821–1845,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00345-8, 1999.
Sillman, S., Logan, J. A., and Wofsy, S. C.: The sensitivity of ozone to
nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in regional ozone episodes, J. Geophys. Res., 95,
1837–1852, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD02p01837, 1990.
Skamarock, W. C. and Klemp, J. B.: A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric
model for weather research and forecasting applications, J. Computat. Phys., 227,
3465–3485, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.01.037, 2008.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner,
J., and Huang, X.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version
4 (No. NCAR/TN-556+STR), https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97,
2019.
Sofiev, M., Ermakova, T., and Vankevich, R.: Evaluation of the smoke-injection height from wild-land fires using remote-sensing data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1995–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-1995-2012, 2012.
Stajner, I., Davidson, P., Byun, D., McQueen, J., Draxler, R., Dickerson,
P., and Meagher, J.: US National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Expanding
Coverage to Include Particulate Matter, Springer, Dordrecht,
379–384, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1359-8_64,
2011.
Sun, J., Fu, J. S., Huang, K., and Gao, Y.: Estimation of future PM2.5- and
ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing
climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique,
J. Air Waste Manage., 65, 611–623, https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2015.1033068,
2015.
Tang, Y., Lee, P., Tsidulko, M., Huang, H.-C., Mcqueen, J., DiMego, G. J., Emmons, L. K., Pierce, R. B., Thompson, A. M., Lin, H.-M., Kang, D., Tong, D., Yu, S., Mathur, R., Pleim, J. E., Otte, T. L., Pouliot, G., Young, J. O., Schere, K. L., Davidson, P. M., and Stajner, I.:
The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of
tropospheric ozone over the continental United States, Environ. Fluid Mech., 9, 43–58,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-008-9092-5, 2009.
Tang, Y., Chai, T., Pan, L., Lee, P., Tong, D., Kim, H.-C., and Chen, W.: Using
optimal interpolation to assimilate surface measurements and satellite AOD
for ozone and PM2.5: A case study for July 2011, J. Air Waste Manage., 65, 1206–1216,
https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2015.1062439, 2015.
Tang, Y., Bian, H., Tao, Z., Oman, L. D., Tong, D., Lee, P., Campbell, P. C., Baker, B., Lu, C.-H., Pan, L., Wang, J., McQueen, J., and Stajner, I.: Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2527–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2527-2021, 2021.
Tewari, M., Chen, F., Wang, W., Dudhia, J., LeMone, M. A., Mitchell, K., Ek, M., Gayno, G., Wegiel, J., and Cuenca, R. H.:
Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in
the WRF model, 20th Conference on Weather Analysis
and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
Seattle, WA, 14 January 2004, https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/techprogram/paper_69061.htm (last access: 6 April 2022) 2004.
Tong, D. Q., Lee, P., and Saylor, R. D.: New Direction: The need to develop
process-based emission forecasting models, Atmos. Environ., 47, 560–561,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.10.070, 2012.
Tong, D. Q., Wang, J. X. L., Gill, T. E., Lei, H., and Wang, B.: Intensified
dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United
States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4304–4312,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073524, 2017.
Troen, I. and Mahrt, L.: A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer:
Sensitivity to surface evaporation, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 37, 129–148,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122760, 1986.
US EPA Office of Research and Development: CMAQv5.0.2 (Version 5.0.2),
Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1079898, 2014.
US EPA Office of Research and Development: CMAQ (Version 5.3.1), Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3585898, 2019.
Vukovich, J. M. and Pierce, T.: The Implementation of BEIS3 within the SMOKE
modeling framework, Environ. Sci., 2002.
Weiss, A. and Norman, J.: Partitioning solar radiation into direct and
diffuse, visible and nearinfrared components, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 34, 205–213,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(85)90020-6, 1985.
Westerling A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming and
earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity, Science, 313, 940–943,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834, 2006.
Wilkins, J., Pouliot, G., Pierce, T., and Beidler, J.: Exploring the
Vertical Distribution of Wildland Fire Smoke in CMAQ, 2019 International
Emissions Inventory Conference, 28 July–2 August 2019, Dallas, Texas,
https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?Lab=NERL&dirEntryId=346294 (last access: 6 April 2022), 2019.
Williams, A. P., Cook, E. R., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I.,
Abatzoglou, J. T., Bolles, K., Baek, S. H., Badger, A. M., and Livneh, B.: Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an
emerging North American megadrought, Science, 368, 314–318,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9600, 2020.
Williams, J. R.: The EPIC model, in: Computer models in
watershed hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., Chapter 25, 909–1000, Littleton, CO, Water
Resources Publications, ISBN-13 978-0-918334-91-6, 1995.
World Health Organization (WHO): Air Quality Guidelines, Global update 2005,
Particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, ISBN 92-890-2192-6, 2006.
World Health Organization (WHO): WHO Guidelines for Indoor Air Quality:
Selected Pollutants, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe
Scherfigsvej 8, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark, ISBN 9789289002134, 2010.
Yang, F., Tallapragada, V., Kain, J. S., Wei, H., Yang, R., Yudin,
V. A., Moorthi, S., Han, J., Hou, Y. T., Wang, J., Treadon, R., and Kleist, D. T.: Model Upgrade Plan and Initial Results from a Prototype NCEP Global
Forecast System Version 16, 2020 AMS Conference, Boston, MA, 15 January 2020,
https://ams.confex.com/ams/2020Annual/webprogram/Paper362797.html (last access: 6 April 2022), 2020.
Yarwood, G., Whitten, G. Z., and Jung, J.: Final Report. Development,
Evaluation and Testing of Version 6 of the Carbon Bond Chemical Mechanism
(CB6), 22 September 2010, ENVIRON International Corporation, 06-17477Y,
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/pm/5820784005FY1026-20100922-environ-cb6.pdf (last access: 6 April 2022), 2010.
Zeka A., Zanobetti, A., and Schwartz, J.: Short term effects of particulate
matter on cause specific mortality: effects of lags and modification by city
characteristics, Occup. Environ. Med., 62, 718–725,
https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2004.017012, 2006.
Zhang, X., Kondragunta, S., Ram, J., Schmidt, C., and Huang, H.-C.:
Near-real-time global biomass burning emissions product from geostationary
satellite constellation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D14201,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017459, 2012.
Zhang, X., Kondragunta, S., and Roy, D. P.: Interannual variation in biomass
burning and fire seasonality derived from geostationary satellite data
across the contiguous United States from 1995 to 2011, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 1147–1162,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002518, 2014.
Zhang, Y., Vijayaraghavan, K., Wen, X.-Y., Snell, H. E., and Jacobson, M. Z.:
Probing into regional ozone and particulate matter pollution in the United
States: 1. A 1
year CMAQ simulation and evaluation using surface and satellite data,
J. Geophys. Res., 114, D22304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011898, 2009a.
Zhang, Y., Wen, X.-Y., Wang, K., Vijayaraghavan, K., and Jacobson, M. Z.:
Probing
into regional ozone and particulate matter pollution in the United States:
2. An
examination of formation mechanisms through a process analysis technique
and sensitivity study, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D22304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011898, 2009b.
Zhang, Y., Bocquet, M., Mallet, V., Seigneur, C., and Baklanov, A.:
Real-time air quality forecasting, part I: History, techniques, and current
status, Atmos. Environ., 60, 632–655,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.031, 2012a.
Zhang, Y., Bocquet, M., Mallet, V., Seigneur, C., and Baklanov, A.:
Real-time air quality forecasting, part II: State of the science, current
research needs, and future prospects, Atmos. Environ., 60, 656–676, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.041, 2012b.
Zhang, Y., West, J. J., Mathur, R., Xing, J., Hogrefe, C., Roselle, S. J., Bash, J. O., Pleim, J. E., Gan, C.-M., and Wong, D. C.: Long-term trends in the ambient PM2.5- and O3-related mortality burdens in the United States under emission reductions from 1990 to 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15003–15016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15003-2018, 2018.
Zhao, H., Zheng, Y., and Li, T.: Air Quality and Control Measures Evaluation
during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing and its Surrounding Cities,
Atmosphere, 8, 8060100, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8060100, 2017.
Zhou, L., Lin, S., Chen, J., Harris, L. M., Chen, X., and Rees, S. L.:
Toward Convective-Scale Prediction within the Next Generation Global
Prediction System, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 1225–1243, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0246.1, 2019.
Zhou, T., Sun, J., and Yu, H.: Temporal and Spatial Patterns of China's Main
Air Pollutants: Years 2014 and 2015, Atmosphere, 8, 8080137,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8080137, 2017.
Short summary
NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) continues to protect Americans from the harmful effects of air pollution, while saving billions of dollars per year. Here we describe and evaluate the development of the most advanced version of the NAQFC to date, which became operational at NOAA on 20 July 2021. The new NAQFC is based on a coupling of NOAA's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) version 16 with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3.1.
NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) continues to protect Americans from the...
