Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
08 Mar 2022
Model description paper |
| 08 Mar 2022
| 08 Mar 2022
Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model
Qing Zhu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Climate Sciences Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Fa Li
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Climate Sciences Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
William J. Riley
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Climate Sciences Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Li Xu
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA
Kunxiaojia Yuan
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Climate Sciences Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Huayi Wu
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Jianya Gong
School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan
University, Wuhan, China
James Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Related authors
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Fa Li, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, Lei Zhao, Li Xu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Min Chen, Huayi Wu, Zhipeng Gui, Jianya Gong, and James T. Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an interpretable machine learning model to predict sub-seasonal and near-future wildfire-burned area over African and South American regions. We found strong time-lagged controls (up to 6–8 months) of local climate wetness on burned areas. A skillful use of such time-lagged controls in machine learning models results in highly accurate predictions of wildfire-burned areas; this will also help develop relevant early-warning and management systems for tropical wildfires.
Jinyun Tang, William J. Riley, and Qing Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1619–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We here describe version 2 of BeTR, a reactive transport model created to help ease the development of biogeochemical capability in Earth system models that are used for quantifying ecosystem–climate feedbacks. We then coupled BeTR-v2 to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to quantify how different numerical couplings of plants and soils affect simulated ecosystem biogeochemistry. We found that different couplings lead to significant uncertainty that is not correctable by tuning parameters.
Jing Tao, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, and Rebecca B. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5281–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the DOE's E3SM land model (ELMv1-ECA) simulations of soil temperature, zero-curtain period durations, cold-season CH4, and CO2 emissions at several Alaskan Arctic tundra sites. We demonstrated that simulated CH4 emissions during zero-curtain periods accounted for more than 50 % of total emissions throughout the entire cold season (Sep to May). We also found that cold-season CO2 emissions largely offset warm-season net uptake currently and showed increasing trends from 1950 to 2017.
Dalei Hao, Ghassem R. Asrar, Yelu Zeng, Qing Zhu, Jianguang Wen, Qing Xiao, and Min Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2209–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We adopted machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. Our products are consistent with ground-based observations, capture the spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations in SW–PAR. Our products provide a valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal cycles of terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences, 21, 5173–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Using machine learning, we develop and compare predictive relationships in observations (Obs) and ESMs. We find different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in Obs and ESMs. SOC prediction in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers in a way consistent with observations.
Xinlian Liang, Yinrui Wang, Jun Pan, Mi Wang, Jiansi Yang, and Jianya Gong
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-3-2024, 637–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-637-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-3-2024-637-2024, 2024
Mi Zhang, Bingnan Yang, Jianya Gong, and Xiangyun Hu
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-3-2024, 445–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-3-2024-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-3-2024-445-2024, 2024
Peng Yue, Kaixuan Wang, Hanwen Xu, Jianya Gong, and Longgang Xiang
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-4-2024, 441–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-441-2024, 2024
Xianyuan Zhang, Longgang Xiang, Peng Yue, Jianya Gong, and Huayi Wu
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-4-2024, 453–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-453-2024, 2024
Yifan Cheng, Lei Zhao, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Keith Oleson, Matthias Demuzere, Xiaoping Liu, Yangzi Che, Weilin Liao, Yuyu Zhou, and Xinchang Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-416, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-416, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Absence of globally consistent and spatially continuous urban surface properties have long prevented large-scale high-resolution urban climate modeling. We developed the U-Surf data, a 1km-resolution dataset that provides key urban surface properties worldwide. U-Surf enhances urban representation in models, enables city-to-city comparison, and supports kilometer-scale Earth system modeling. Its broader applications can be extended to machine learning and many other non-climatic practices.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2282, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new mathematical formulation of the dynamic energy budget model is presented for the growth of biological organisms. The new theory combines mass conservation law and chemical kinetics theory, and is computationally faster than the standard formulation of dynamic energy budget model. In simulating the growth of Thalassiosira weissfloggi in a nitrogen-limiting chemostat, the new model is as good as the standard dynamic energy budget model using almost the same parameter values.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Jiageng Zhong, Ming Li, Armin Gruen, Jianya Gong, Deren Li, Mingjie Li, and Jiangying Qin
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-2-2024, 247–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-2-2024-247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-2-2024-247-2024, 2024
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Tianjia Liu, James T. Randerson, Yang Chen, Douglas C. Morton, Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Padhraic Smyth, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Roy Nadler, and Omer Nevo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1395–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1395-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1395-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of extreme wildfire behavior, we use geostationary satellite data to develop the GOFER algorithm and track the hourly fire progression of large wildfires. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery and reveals considerable variability in fire spread rates on diurnal timescales. We create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates for 28 fires in California.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Joanne V. Hall, Fernanda Argueta, Maria Zubkova, Yang Chen, James T. Randerson, and Louis Giglio
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 867–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-867-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Crop-residue burning is a widespread practice often occurring close to population centers. Its recurrent nature requires accurate mapping of the area burned – a key input into air quality models. Unlike larger fires, crop fires require a specific burned area (BA) methodology, which to date has been ignored in global BA datasets. Our global cropland-focused BA product found a significant increase in global cropland BA (81 Mha annual average) compared to the widely used MCD64A1 (32 Mha).
Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using multiple sets of remotely sensed data, we created a dataset of monthly global burned area from 1997 to 2020. The estimated annual global burned area is 774 million hectares, significantly higher than previous estimates. Burned area declined by 1.21% per year due to extensive fire loss in savanna, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of fire on the carbon cycle and climate system, and may improve the predictions of future fire changes.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
Fa Li, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, Lei Zhao, Li Xu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Min Chen, Huayi Wu, Zhipeng Gui, Jianya Gong, and James T. Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an interpretable machine learning model to predict sub-seasonal and near-future wildfire-burned area over African and South American regions. We found strong time-lagged controls (up to 6–8 months) of local climate wetness on burned areas. A skillful use of such time-lagged controls in machine learning models results in highly accurate predictions of wildfire-burned areas; this will also help develop relevant early-warning and management systems for tropical wildfires.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Y. Xu, X. Hu, J. Gong, X. Huang, and J. Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 223–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-223-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-223-2022, 2022
Jinyun Tang, William J. Riley, and Qing Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1619–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We here describe version 2 of BeTR, a reactive transport model created to help ease the development of biogeochemical capability in Earth system models that are used for quantifying ecosystem–climate feedbacks. We then coupled BeTR-v2 to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to quantify how different numerical couplings of plants and soils affect simulated ecosystem biogeochemistry. We found that different couplings lead to significant uncertainty that is not correctable by tuning parameters.
Zhonghua Zheng, Matthew West, Lei Zhao, Po-Lun Ma, Xiaohong Liu, and Nicole Riemer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17727–17741, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17727-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17727-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol mixing state is an important emergent property that affects aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions, but it has not been easy to constrain this property globally. We present a framework for evaluating the error in aerosol mixing state induced by aerosol representation assumptions, which is one of the important contributors to structural uncertainty in aerosol models. Our study provides insights into potential improvements to model process representation for aerosols.
Jing Tao, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, and Rebecca B. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5281–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the DOE's E3SM land model (ELMv1-ECA) simulations of soil temperature, zero-curtain period durations, cold-season CH4, and CO2 emissions at several Alaskan Arctic tundra sites. We demonstrated that simulated CH4 emissions during zero-curtain periods accounted for more than 50 % of total emissions throughout the entire cold season (Sep to May). We also found that cold-season CO2 emissions largely offset warm-season net uptake currently and showed increasing trends from 1950 to 2017.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Elizabeth B. Wiggins, Arlyn Andrews, Colm Sweeney, John B. Miller, Charles E. Miller, Sander Veraverbeke, Roisin Commane, Steven Wofsy, John M. Henderson, and James T. Randerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8557–8574, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8557-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed high-resolution trace gas measurements collected from a tower in Alaska during a very active fire season to improve our understanding of trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires. Our results suggest previous studies may have underestimated emissions from smoldering combustion in boreal forest fires.
Xiongxin Xiao, Shunlin Liang, Tao He, Daiqiang Wu, Congyuan Pei, and Jianya Gong
The Cryosphere, 15, 835–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-835-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-835-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Daily time series and full space-covered sub-pixel snow cover area data are urgently needed for climate and reanalysis studies. Due to the fact that observations from optical satellite sensors are affected by clouds, this study attempts to capture dynamic characteristics of snow cover at a fine spatiotemporal resolution (daily; 6.25 km) accurately by using passive microwave data. We demonstrate the potential to use the passive microwave and the MODIS data to map the fractional snow cover area.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, and Scott R. Saleska
Biogeosciences, 17, 5849–5860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas that can accelerate climate change and offset mitigation efforts. A key assumption embedded in many large-scale climate models is that ecosystem CH4 emissions can be estimated by fixed temperature relations. Here, we demonstrate that CH4 emissions cannot be parameterized by emergent temperature response alone due to variability driven by microbial and abiotic interactions. We also provide mechanistic understanding for observed CH4 emission hysteresis.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4971–4996, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
It is still challenging to apply the quantitative and comprehensive global sensitivity analysis method to complex large-scale process-based hydrological models because of variant uncertainty sources and high computational cost. This work developed a new tool and demonstrate its implementation to a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale hydrological modelling. This method is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to other large-scale hydrological models.
Dalei Hao, Ghassem R. Asrar, Yelu Zeng, Qing Zhu, Jianguang Wen, Qing Xiao, and Min Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2209–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We adopted machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. Our products are consistent with ground-based observations, capture the spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations in SW–PAR. Our products provide a valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal cycles of terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes.
Z. Gui, Y. Wang, Z. Cui, D. Peng, J. Wu, Z. Ma, S. Luo, and H. Wu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 545–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-545-2020, 2020
K. Hu, Z. Dai, J. Zheng, and H. Wu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 47–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-47-2020, 2020
J. Yan, L. Xiang, C. Wu, and H. Wu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B4-2020, 213–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-213-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B4-2020-213-2020, 2020
D. Chen, X. Zhang, N. Chen, J. Yang, and J. Gong
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-4-2020, 115–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2020-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-4-2020-115-2020, 2020
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James T. Randerson, and Brad Quayle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10 d lead-time. This study introduces a framework for a 1-month lead-time prediction of wildfires based on vapor pressure deficit and surface soil moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Han Qiu, Dongwei Gui, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Fushan Wang, Guangheng Ni, William J. Riley, Jinyun Tang, Dejun Zhu, and Ting Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2119–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The current lake model in the Weather Research and Forecasting system was reported to be insufficient in simulating deep lakes and reservoirs. We thus revised the lake model by improving its spatial discretization scheme, surface property parameterization, diffusivity parameterization, and convection scheme. The revised model was evaluated at a deep reservoir in southwestern China and the results were in good agreement with measurements.
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, Virginia I. Rich, and Scott R. Saleska
The Cryosphere, 13, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-647-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost peatlands store large amounts of carbon potentially vulnerable to decomposition under changing climate. We estimated effects of climate forcing biases on carbon cycling at a thawing permafrost peatland in subarctic Sweden. Our results indicate that many climate reanalysis products are cold and wet biased in our study region, leading to erroneous active layer depth and carbon budget estimates. Future studies should recognize the effects of climate forcing uncertainty on carbon cycling.
Gautam Bisht, William J. Riley, Glenn E. Hammond, and David M. Lorenzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4085–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4085-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Most existing global land surface models used to study impacts of climate change on water resources routinely use different models for near-surface unsaturated soil and the deeper groundwater table. We developed a model that uses a unified treatment of soil hydrologic processes throughout the entire soil column. Using a calibrated drainage parameter, the new model is able to correctly predict deep water table depth as reported in an observationally constrained global dataset.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Gensuo Jia
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Gautam Bisht, William J. Riley, Haruko M. Wainwright, Baptiste Dafflon, Fengming Yuan, and Vladimir E. Romanovsky
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The land model integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model was extended to include snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes. Simulation results at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska, showed that inclusion of SR resulted in a better agreement with observations. Excluding lateral subsurface processes had a small impact on mean states but caused a large overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and temperature.
Gautam Bisht, Maoyi Huang, Tian Zhou, Xingyuan Chen, Heng Dai, Glenn E. Hammond, William J. Riley, Janelle L. Downs, Ying Liu, and John M. Zachara
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4539–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4539-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model, CP v1.0, was developed to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The coupled model can be used for improving mechanistic understanding of ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling along river corridors under historical and future hydroclimatic changes. The dataset presented in this study can also serve as a good benchmarking case for testing other integrated models.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Louis Giglio, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Yang Chen, Brendan M. Rogers, Mingquan Mu, Margreet J. E. van Marle, Douglas C. Morton, G. James Collatz, Robert J. Yokelson, and Prasad S. Kasibhatla
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fires occur in many vegetation types and are sometimes natural but often ignited by humans for various purposes. We have estimated how much area they burn globally and what their emissions are. Total burned area is roughly equivalent to the size of the EU with most fires burning in tropical savannas. Their emissions vary substantially from year to year and contribute to the atmospheric burdens of many trace gases and aerosols. The 20-year dataset is mostly suited for large-scale assessments.
Z. Cui, G. Xie, Z. Gui, and H. Wu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-5-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-5-2017, 2017
R. Li, N. Yang, R. Li, W. Huang, and H. Wu
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., IV-2-W4, 15–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W4-15-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-2-W4-15-2017, 2017
Y. Song, Z. Gui, H. Wu, and Y. Wei
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 129–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-129-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-129-2017, 2017
S. Tian, J. Wang, Z. Gui, H. Wu, and Y. Wang
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-2-W7, 149–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-149-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-2-W7-149-2017, 2017
Jin-Yun Tang and William J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3277–3295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3277-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3277-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed the SUPECA kinetics to scale from single biogeochemical reactions to a network of mixed substrates and consumers. The framework for the first time represents single-substrate reactions, two-substrate reactions, and mineral surface sorption reactions in a scaling consistent manner. This new theory is theoretically solid and outperforms existing theories, particularly for substrate-limiting systems. The test with aerobic soil respiration showed its strengths for pragmatic application.
Lei Zhao, Xuhui Lee, and Natalie M. Schultz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9067–9080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9067-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9067-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Heat stress associated with climate change is one of most severe threats to human society. The problem is further compounded in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). We use an urban climate model to evaluate the cooling benefits of active urban heat mitigation strategies both individually and collectively. We show that by forming UHI mitigation wedges, these strategies have the potential to significantly reduce the UHI effect plus warming induced by greenhouse gases.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Paul A. Levine, James T. Randerson, Sean C. Swenson, and David M. Lawrence
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4837–4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4837-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4837-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a new approach to assess the strength of feedbacks resulting from land–atmosphere coupling on decadal timescales. Our approach was tailored to enable evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) using data from Earth observation satellites that measure terrestrial water storage anomalies and relevant atmospheric variables. Our results are consistent with previous work demonstrating that ESMs may be overestimating the strength of land surface feedbacks compared with observations.
Weiwei Fu, James T. Randerson, and J. Keith Moore
Biogeosciences, 13, 5151–5170, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably for RCP8.5. Negative response of NPP and EP to stratification increases reflects a bottom-up control. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts. Projections of the NPP response to climate change depend on the phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the levels of regenerated production.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Paul J. Hanson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Peter E. Thornton, William J. Riley, Xia Song, David E. Graham, Changchun Song, and Hanqin Tian
Biogeosciences, 13, 3735–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately projecting future climate change requires a good methane modeling. However, how good the current models are and what are the key improvements needed remain unclear. This paper reviews the 40 published methane models to characterize the strengths and weakness of current methane models and further lay out the roadmap for future model improvements.
Z. L. Yang, J. Cao, K. Hu, Z. P. Gui, H. Y. Wu, and L. You
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B6, 3–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B6-3-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B6-3-2016, 2016
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-233, 2016
Preprint retracted
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 13, 723–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-723-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-723-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a generic flux-limiting approach to simultaneously handle the availability limitation from many substrates, a problem common in all biogeochemical models. Our approach does not have the ordering problem like a few existing ad hoc approaches, and is straightforward to implement. Our results imply that significant uncertainties could have occurred in many biogeochemical models because of the improper handling of the substrate co-limitation problem.
Q. Zhu, W. J. Riley, J. Tang, and C. D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 13, 341–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we develop, calibrate, and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers based on enzyme kinetics theory. Our model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land biogeochemical models integrated in Earth system models.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
U. Mishra and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 12, 3993–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015, 2015
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
N. J. Bouskill, W. J. Riley, and J. Y. Tang
Biogeosciences, 11, 6969–6983, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6969-2014, 2014
G. Bisht and W. J. Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12833-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12833-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
G. S. H. Pau, G. Bisht, and W. J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2091-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2091-2014, 2014
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 11, 3721–3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3721-2014, 2014
W. J. Riley, F. Maggi, M. Kleber, M. S. Torn, J. Y. Tang, D. Dwivedi, and N. Guerry
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1335–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1335-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1335-2014, 2014
W. J. Riley and C. Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2463–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, 2014
I. N. Williams, W. J. Riley, M. S. Torn, S. C. Biraud, and M. L. Fischer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1571–1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1571-2014, 2014
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 10, 8329–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8329-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8329-2013, 2013
C. D. Koven, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, J. Y. Tang, M. S. Torn, W. D. Collins, G. B. Bonan, D. M. Lawrence, and S. C. Swenson
Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013
P. C. Stoy, M. C. Dietze, A. D. Richardson, R. Vargas, A. G. Barr, R. S. Anderson, M. A. Arain, I. T. Baker, T. A. Black, J. M. Chen, R. B. Cook, C. M. Gough, R. F. Grant, D. Y. Hollinger, R. C. Izaurralde, C. J. Kucharik, P. Lafleur, B. E. Law, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, J. W. Munger, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. T. Price, D. M. Ricciuto, W. J. Riley, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, C. R. Schwalm, H. Tian, H. Verbeeck, and E. Weng
Biogeosciences, 10, 6893–6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, 2013
J. H. Shim, H. H. Powers, C. W. Meyer, A. Knohl, T. E. Dawson, W. J. Riley, W. T. Pockman, and N. McDowell
Biogeosciences, 10, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
S. C. Biraud, M. S. Torn, J. R. Smith, C. Sweeney, W. J. Riley, and P. P. Tans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 751–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-751-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-751-2013, 2013
W. J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 345–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-345-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-345-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-873-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-873-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang, W. J. Riley, C. D. Koven, and Z. M. Subin
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
Investigating Carbon and Nitrogen Conservation in Reported CMIP6 Earth System Model Data
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
From Weather Data to River Runoff: Leveraging Spatiotemporal Convolutional Networks for Comprehensive Discharge Forecasting
Historical Trends and Controlling Factors of Isoprene Emissions in CMIP6 Earth System Models
Modeling Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage in the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
Split-explicit external mode solver in the finite volume sea ice–ocean model FESOM2
Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
Coupled Carbon-Nitrogen Cycle in MAGICC v1.0.0: Model Description and Calibration
The sea ice component of GC5: coupling SI3 to HadGEM3 using conductive fluxes
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from CMIP6 Earth System Models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, particularly in nitrogen, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte Stuecker, Andrea Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3110, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, here referred to as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models, but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols, and partly due to systematic model errors. TBIMIP aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we developed and applied a weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. It also enhances the simulation of interannual precipitation and temperature variability over the southern US. This system is to support future predictability studies.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2685, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Thi Nhu Ngoc Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2313, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth System Models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant-climate interactions.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-162, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a sub-sea CO2 injection.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7157–7179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6929–6947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1941, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle effect in Earth System Models by developing a carbon-nitrogen coupling in a reduced complexity model, MAGICC. Our model successfully emulated the global carbon-nitrogen cycle dynamics seen in CMIP6 complex models. Results indicate consistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100. Our findings suggest that nitrogen deficiency could reduce future land carbon sequestration.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate
change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 113, 11770–11775, 2016.
Andela, N., Morton, D., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., Van Der Werf, G., Kasibhatla,
P., DeFries, R., Collatz, G., Hantson, S., and Kloster, S.: A human-driven
decline in global burned area, Science, 356, 1356–1362, 2017.
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., van der Werf, G. R., and Randerson, J. T.: The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic
vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 110, G02008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000042, 2005.
Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., and Midgley, G. F.: The global distribution of
ecosystems in a world without fire, New Phytol., 165, 525–538, 2005.
Bond-Lamberty, B., Peckham, S. D., Ahl, D. E., and Gower, S. T.: Fire as the
dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance, Nature,
450, 89–92, 2007.
Bowd, E. J., Banks, S. C., Strong, C. L., and Lindenmayer, D. B.: Long-term
impacts of wildfire and logging on forest soils, Nat. Geosci., 12, 113–118, 2019.
Brando, P., Soares-Filho, B., Rodrigues, L., Assunção, A., Morton,
D., Tuchschneider, D., Fernandes, E., Macedo, M., Oliveira, U., and Coe, M.:
The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia, Sci. Adv., 6, eaay1632, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay1632, 2020.
Cecil, D. J., Buechler, D. E., and Blakeslee, R. J.: Gridded lightning
climatology from TRMM-LIS and OTD: Dataset description, Atmos. Res., 135, 404–414, 2014.
Chambers, S. and Chapin, F.: Fire effects on surface-atmosphere energy
exchange in Alaskan black spruce ecosystems: Implications for feedbacks to
regional climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, 148–227, 2002.
Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J.,
Kasibhatla, P. S., Giglio, L., Jin, Y., and Marlier, M. E.: Forecasting fire
season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies,
Science, 334, 787–791, 2011.
Chen, Y., Randerson, J. T., Coffield, S. R., Foufoula-Georgiou, E., Smyth,
P., Graff, C. A., Morton, D. C., Andela, N., van der Werf, G. R., and
Giglio, L.: Forecasting global fire emissions on subseasonal to seasonal
(S2S) time scales, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001955, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001955, 2020.
Clark, T. L., Coen, J., and Latham, D.: Description of a coupled
atmosphere-fire model, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 13, 49–63,
2004.
Coffield, S. R., Graff, C. A., Chen, Y., Smyth, P., Foufoula-Georgiou, E.,
and Randerson, J. T.: Machine learning to predict final fire size at the
time of ignition, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 28, 861–873, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19023, 2019.
Day, C.: Smoke from burning vegetation changes the coverage and behavior of
clouds, Phys. Today, 57, 24, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1768664, 2004.
Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T., and Hanasaki, N.:
GSWP-2: Multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land
surface, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1398, 2006.
Dobson, J. E., Bright, E. A., Coleman, P. R., Durfee, R. C., and Worley, B.
A.: LandScan: a global population database for estimating populations at
risk, Photogram. Eng. Rem. S., 66, 849–857, 2000.
ESA: Fire_cci Burned Area dataset, Fire_CCI51, ESA [data set], https://geogra.uah.es/fire_cci/firecci51.php, last access: 15 September 2021a.
ESA: Fire_cci long-term Burned Area dataset, Fire_CCILT11, ESA [data set], https://geogra.uah.es/fire_cci/fireccilt11.php, last access: 15 September 2021b.
Finney, M. A.: FARSITE, Fire Area Simulator – model development and
evaluation, Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-4, Ogden, UT: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 47 p., 1998.
FireAtlas: Global Fire Atlas, FireAtlas [data set], https://www.globalfiredata.org/fireatlas.html (last access: 15 September 2021), 2019.
French, N. H., Whitley, M. A., and Jenkins, L. K.: Fire disturbance effects
on land surface albedo in Alaskan tundra, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 121, 841–854, 2016.
Ganapathi Subramanian, S. and Crowley, M.: Using spatial reinforcement
learning to build forest wildfire dynamics models from satellite images,
Front. ICT, 5, 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fict.2018.00006, 2018.
Giglio, L., Csiszar, I., and Justice, C. O.: Global distribution and
seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 111, G02016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000142, 2006a.
Giglio, L., van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Collatz, G. J., and Kasibhatla, P.: Global estimation of burned area using MODIS active fire observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 957–974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-957-2006, 2006b.
Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T., and Van Der Werf, G. R.: Analysis of daily,
monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire
emissions database (GFED4), J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo.,
118, 317–328, 2013.
Giglio, L., Boschetti, L., Roy, D. P., Humber, M. L., and Justice, C. O.:
The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product, Remote
Sens. Environ., 217, 72–85, 2018.
Giglio, L., Schroeder, W., Hall, J. V., and Justice, C. O.: MODIS Collection 6 Active Fire Product User’s Guide Revision C, NASA [data set], https://modis-fire.umd.edu/files/MODIS_C6_Fire_User_Guide_C.pdf (last access: 15 September 2021), 2020.
Girardin, M. P. and Mudelsee, M.: Past and future changes in Canadian boreal
wildfire activity, Ecol. Appl., 18, 391–406, 2008.
Goodfellow, I., Bengio, Y., and Courville, A.: Deep learning, MIT Press,
Cambridge, http://www.deeplearningbook.org (last access: 15 September 2021), 2016.
Goss, M., Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Sarhadi, A., Kolden, C. A.,
Williams, A. P., and Diffenbaugh, N. S.: Climate change is increasing the
likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7, 2020.
Hantson, S., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Rabin, S. S., Archibald, S., Mouillot, F., Arnold, S. R., Artaxo, P., Bachelet, D., Ciais, P., Forrest, M., Friedlingstein, P., Hickler, T., Kaplan, J. O., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Meyn, A., Sitch, S., Spessa, A., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., and Yue, C.: The status and challenge of global fire modelling, Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016.
Hantson, S., Rabin, S., Kelley, D. I., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Archibald, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Kloster, S., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Nieradzik, L., Prentice, I. C., Sheehan, T., Sitch, S., Teckentrup, L., Voulgarakis, A., Yue, C.: Model outputs: Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in historical simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3555562, 2019.
Harden, J. W., Manies, K. L., Turetsky, M. R., and Neff, J. C.: Effects of
wildfire and permafrost on soil organic matter and soil climate in interior
Alaska, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 2391–2403, 2006.
Heyerdahl, E. K., Brubaker, L. B., and Agee, J. K.: Annual and decadal
climate forcing of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific
Northwest, USA, The Holocene, 12, 597–604, 2002.
Holden, Z. A., Swanson, A., Luce, C. H., Jolly, W. M., Maneta, M., Oyler, J.
W., Warren, D. A., Parsons, R., and Affleck, D.: Decreasing fire season
precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity,
Proc. Natl. A. Sci., 115, E8349–E8357, 2018.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020.
Jiang, Y., Yang, X.-Q., Liu, X., Qian, Y., Zhang, K., Wang, M., Li, F.,
Wang, Y., and Lu, Z.: Impacts of wildfire aerosols on global energy budget
and climate: The role of climate feedbacks, J. Climate, 33, 3351–3366, 2020.
Kasischke, E. S. and Bruhwiler, L. P.: Emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon
monoxide, and methane from boreal forest fires in 1998, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, 148–227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000461, 2002.
Kelley, D. I., Bistinas, I., Whitley, R., Burton, C., Marthews, T. R., and
Dong, N.: How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire
regimes, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 690–696, 2019.
Kelley, D. I., Burton, C., Huntingford, C., Brown, M. A. J., Whitley, R., and Dong, N.: Technical note: Low meteorological influence found in 2019 Amazonia fires, Biogeosciences, 18, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, 2021.
Keeley, J. E. and Syphard, A. D.: Historical patterns of wildfire ignition
sources in California ecosystems, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 27, 781–799, 2018.
Kingma, D. P. and Ba, J.: Adam: A method for stochastic optimization, arXiv:1412.6980, 2014.
Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., and Weber, U.: Impact of human
population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences,
11, 1085–1102, 2014.
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J. Y., Torn, M. S., Collins, W. D., Bonan, G. B., Lawrence, D. M., and Swenson, S. C.: The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4, Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013.
Lamarque, J. F., Kiehl, J. T., Brasseur, G. P., Butler, T., Cameron-Smith,
P., Collins, W. D., Collins, W. J., Granier, C., Hauglustaine, D., and Hess,
P. G.: Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using
a multimodel approach: Analysis of nitrogen deposition, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D19303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005825, 2005.
Lenihan, J. M. and Bachelet, D.: Historical climate and suppression effects
on simulated fire and carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States,
Global Vegetation Dynamics: Concepts and Applications in the MC1 Model,
edited by: Bachelet, D. and Turner, D., AGU Geophys. Monog., 214,
17–30, 2015.
Li, F., Zeng, X. D., and Levis, S.: A process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Biogeosciences, 9, 2761–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2761-2012, 2012.
Li, F., Val Martin, M., Andreae, M. O., Arneth, A., Hantson, S., Kaiser, J. W., Lasslop, G., Yue, C., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Kluzek, E., Liu, X., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Ward, D. S., Darmenov, A., Hickler, T., Ichoku, C., Magi, B. I., Sitch, S., van der Werf, G. R., Wiedinmyer, C., and Rabin, S. S.: Historical (1700–2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019.
Lizundia-Loiola, J., Pettinari, M., Chuvieco, E., Storm, T., and
Gómez-Dans, J.: ESA CCI ECV Fire Disturbance: Algorithm Theoretical
Basis Document-MODIS, version 2.0, https://climate.esa.int/media/documents/Fire_cci_D2.1.3_ATBD-MODIS_v2.0.pdf (last access: 15 September 2021), 2018.
Lizundia-Loiola, J., Otón, G., Ramo, R., and Chuvieco, E.: A
spatio-temporal active-fire clustering approach for global burned area
mapping at 250 m from MODIS data, Remote Sens. Environ., 236,
111493, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111493, 2020.
Mahowald, N., Jickells, T. D., Baker, A. R., Artaxo, P., Benitez-Nelson, C.
R., Bergametti, G., Bond, T. C., Chen, Y., Cohen, D. D., and Herut, B.:
Global distribution of atmospheric phosphorus sources, concentrations and
deposition rates, and anthropogenic impacts, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
22, GB4026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003240, 2008.
Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Randerson, J. T., Grant, R. F., and Rogers,
B. M.: Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions
between climate warming and fire, Nat. Plants, 5, 952–958, 2019.
Oliver, A. K., Callaham Jr., M. A., and Jumpponen, A.: Soil fungal
communities respond compositionally to recurring frequent prescribed burning
in a managed southeastern US forest ecosystem, Forest Ecol. Manag.t, 345, 1–9, 2015.
Papakosta, P., Xanthopoulos, G., and Straub, D.: Probabilistic prediction of
wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network
analysis, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 26, 10–23, 2017.
Pellegrini, A. F., Ahlström, A., Hobbie, S. E., Reich, P. B., Nieradzik,
L. P., Staver, A. C., Scharenbroch, B. C., Jumpponen, A., Anderegg, W. R.,
and Randerson, J. T.: Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon
and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity, Nature, 553, 194–198, 2018.
Pellegrini, A. F., Hobbie, S. E., Reich, P. B., Jumpponen, A., Brookshire,
E. J., Caprio, A. C., Coetsee, C., and Jackson, R. B.: Repeated fire shifts
carbon and nitrogen cycling by changing plant inputs and soil decomposition
across ecosystems, Ecol. Monogr., 90, e01409, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1409, 2020.
Preisler, H. K. and Westerling, A. L.: Statistical model for forecasting
monthly large wildfire events in western United States, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46, 1020–1030, 2007.
Prentice, S. and Mackerras, D.: The ratio of cloud to cloud-ground lightning
flashes in thunderstorms, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 545–550, 1977.
Rabin, S. S., Melton, J. R., Lasslop, G., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kaplan, J. O., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Ward, D. S., Yue, C., Arora, V. K., Hickler, T., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Nieradzik, L., Spessa, A., Folberth, G. A., Sheehan, T., Voulgarakis, A., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Harrison, S., and Arneth, A.: The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017.
Radke, D., Hessler, A., and Ellsworth, D.: FireCast: Leveraging Deep
Learning to Predict Wildfire Spread, Proceedings of the Twenty-Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Main track, IJCAI 2019 Macao, Int. Joint Conf. Aartif., 4575–4581, https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2019/636, 2019.
Randerson, J. T., Liu, H., Flanner, M. G., Chambers, S. D., Jin, Y., Hess,
P. G., Pfister, G., Mack, M., Treseder, K., and Welp, L.: The impact of
boreal forest fire on climate warming, Science, 314, 1130–1132, 2006.
Randerson, J. T., van der Werf, G. R., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 4, (GFEDv4), ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1293, data available at: https://daac.ornl.gov/VEGETATION/guides/fire_emissions_v4.html (last access: 15 September 2021), 2018.
Riley, K. and Thompson, M.: An uncertainty analysis of wildfire modeling,
Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: modeling and decision support,
Monograph, 223, 193–213, 2017.
Ross, A. N., Wooster, M. J., Boesch, H., and Parker, R.: First satellite
measurements of carbon dioxide and methane emission ratios in wildfire
plumes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4098–4102, 2013.
Rother, D. and De Sales, F.: Impact of Wildfire on the Surface Energy
Balance in Six California Case Studies, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 178, 143–166, 2020.
Rothermel, R. C.: A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in
wildland fuels, Intermountain Forest & Range Experiment Station, Forest
Service, US Department of Agriculture, Ogden, UT, USA, Res. Pap. INT-115, 40p., 1972.
Saha, M. V., Scanlon, T. M., and D'Odorico, P.: Climate seasonality as an
essential predictor of global fire activity, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 28, 198–210, 2019.
Sayad, Y. O., Mousannif, H., and Al Moatassime, H.: Predictive modeling of
wildfires: A new dataset and machine learning approach, Fire Safety J.,
104, 130–146, 2019.
Schmidhuber, J.: Deep learning in neural networks: An overview, Neural
Networks, 61, 85–117, 2015.
Stephenson, C., Handmer, J., and Betts, R.: Estimating the economic, social
and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia, Environ. Hazards,
12, 93–111, 2013.
Syphard, A. D., Radeloff, V. C., Keeley, J. E., Hawbaker, T. J., Clayton, M.
K., Stewart, S. I., and Hammer, R. B.: Human influence on California fire
regimes, Ecol. Appl., 17, 1388–1402, 2007.
Teckentrup, L., Lasslop, G., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Li, F.,
Melton, J. R., Yue, C., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., and Sitch, S.: Simulations of
historical burned area: A comparison of global fire models in FireMIP,
EGUGA, 17537, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018EGUGA..2017537T, 2018.
Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Dong, L., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 7, 1991–2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010, 2010.
Tonini, M., D'Andrea, M., Biondi, G., Degli Esposti, S., Trucchia, A., and
Fiorucci, P.: A Machine Learning-Based Approach for Wildfire Susceptibility
Mapping, The Case Study of the Liguria Region in Italy, Geosciences, 10,
105, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10030105, 2020.
van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., van Leeuwen, T. T., Chen, Y., Rogers, B. M., Mu, M., van Marle, M. J. E., Morton, D. C., Collatz, G. J., Yokelson, R. J., and Kasibhatla, P. S.: Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017.
van Vuuren, D. P., Lucas, P. L., and Hilderink, H.: Downscaling drivers of
global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the
national and grid levels, Glob. Environ. Change, 17, 114–130, 2007.
Venevsky, S., Thonicke, K., Sitch, S., and Cramer, W.: Simulating fire
regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study, Glob.
Change Biol., 8, 984–998, 2002.
Walker, X. J., Baltzer, J. L., Cumming, S. G., Day, N. J., Ebert, C., Goetz,
S., Johnstone, J. F., Potter, S., Rogers, B. M., and Schuur, E. A.:
Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils,
Nature, 572, 520–523, 2019.
Wang, J.-F., Stein, A., Gao, B.-B., and Ge, Y.: A review of spatial
sampling, Spat. Stat., 2, 1–14, 2012.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming
and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity, Science,
313, 940–943, 2006.
Williams, A. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman-Morales, J.,
Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Observed impacts of
anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California, Earths Future, 7,
892–910, 2019.
Xu, L., Qing, Z., William, J. R., Yang, C., Hailong, W., Po-Lun, M., and
James, T. R.: The influence of fire aerosols on surface climate and gross
primary production in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), J. Climate 34, 7219–7238, 2021.
Xu, X., Jia, G., Zhang, X., Riley, W. J., and Xue, Y.: Climate regime shift
and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests, Glob. Change Biol.,
26, 5874–5885, 2020.
Yu, Y., Mao, J., Thornton, P. E., Notaro, M., Wullschleger, S. D., Shi, X.,
Hoffman, F. M., and Wang, Y.: Quantifying the drivers and predictability of
seasonal changes in African fire, Nature Commun., 11, 1–8, 2020.
Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., and Kaplan, J. O.: Ensemble
projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations
over the western United States in the mid-21st century, Atmos. Environ., 77, 767–780, 2013.
Zheng, H., Yang, Z., Liu, W., Liang, J., and Li, Y.: Improving deep neural
networks using softplus units, 2015 International Joint Conference on Neural
Networks (IJCNN), 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1109/IJCNN.2015.7280459, 2015.
Zhu, Q.: Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global earth system model, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5508795, 2021.
Zhu, Q. and Riley, W. J.: Improved modelling of soil nitrogen losses, Nat.
Clim. Change, 5, 705–706, 2015.
Zhu, Q. and Zhuang, Q.: Improving the quantification of terrestrial
ecosystem carbon dynamics over the United States using an adjoint method,
Ecosphere, 4, art118, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00058.1, 2013.
Zhu, Q. and Zhuang, Q.: Parameterization and sensitivity analysis of a
process-based terrestrial ecosystem model using adjoint method, J. Adv. Model. Ea. Sy., 6, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000241, 2014.
Zhu, Q., Riley, W. J., Tang, J., and Koven, C. D.: Multiple soil nutrient competition between plants, microbes, and mineral surfaces: model development, parameterization, and example applications in several tropical forests, Biogeosciences, 13, 341–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, 2016.
Zhu, Q., Riley, W. J., Tang, J., Collier, N., Hoffman, F. M., Yang, X., and
Bisht, G.: Representing nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon interactions in the
E3SM Land Model: Development and global benchmarking, J. Adv. Model. Ea. Sy., 11, 2238–2258, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001571, 2019.
Zhu, Q., Riley, W. J., Iversen, C. M., and Kattge, J.: Assessing impacts of
plant stoichiometric traits on terrestrial ecosystem carbon accumulation
using the E3SM land model, J. Adv. Model. Ea. Sy., 12, e2019MS001841, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001841, 2020.
Zou, Y., Wang, Y., Ke, Z., Tian, H., Yang, J., and Liu, Y.: Development of a
REgion-specific ecosystem feedback fire (RESFire) model in the Community
Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Ea. Sy., 11, 417–445, 2019.
Zou, Y., Wang, Y., Qian, Y., Tian, H., Yang, J., and Alvarado, E.: Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate-fire-ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 995–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, 2020.
Short summary
Wildfire is a devastating Earth system process that burns about 500 million hectares of land each year. It wipes out vegetation including trees, shrubs, and grasses and causes large losses of economic assets. However, modeling the spatial distribution and temporal changes of wildfire activities at a global scale is challenging. This study built a machine-learning-based wildfire surrogate model within an existing Earth system model and achieved high accuracy.
Wildfire is a devastating Earth system process that burns about 500 million hectares of land...
