Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
03 Mar 2022
Model evaluation paper |
| 03 Mar 2022
| 03 Mar 2022
Variability and extremes: statistical validation of the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM)
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Thorsten Dickhaus
Institute for Statistics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
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Alessandro Gagliardi, Norel Rimbu, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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This study shows that stable oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice cores can help identify extreme winter events in Europe. In years with a lack of the heavier oxygen isotope, we found changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. These changes bring warmer, wetter conditions to the Norwegian coast and colder, drier conditions to southern Europe. The pattern appears in both recent and past data, staying stable over the last 400 years.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
Clim. Past, 21, 1263–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, 2025
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For 1 century, the hemispheric summer insolation is proposed as a key pacemaker of astronomical climate change. However, an increasing number of geologic records reveal that the low-latitude hydrological cycle shows asynchronous precessional evolutions that are very often out of phase with the summer insolation. Here, we propose that the astronomically driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by summer insolation but by shifting perihelion.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerrit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past, 21, 1143–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, 2025
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Geochronological, cryolithological, paleoecological, and modeling data reconstruct the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate around the New Siberian Islands and reveal significantly warmer conditions compared to today. The critical challenges in predicting future ecosystem responses lie in the fact that the land–ocean distribution during the LIG was markedly different from today, affecting the degree of continentality, which played a major role in modulating climate and ecosystem dynamics.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, 2025
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Wee Wei Khoo, Juliane Müller, Oliver Esper, Wenshen Xiao, Christian Stepanek, Paul Gierz, Gerrit Lohmann, Walter Geibert, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 21, 299–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, 2025
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Using a multiproxy approach, we analyzed biomarkers and diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core from the Powell Basin, Weddell Sea. The results reveal the first continuous coastal Antarctic sea ice record since the Last Penultimate Glacial. Our findings contribute valuable insights into past glacial–interglacial sea ice responses to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and dynamics.
Yugeng Chen, Pengyang Song, Xianyao Chen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 20, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, 2024
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Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
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Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Pengyang Song, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Maik Thomas, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, 2023
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Tides have essential effects on the ocean and climate. Most previous research applies parameterised tidal mixing to discuss their effects in models. By comparing the effect of a tidal mixing parameterisation and tidal forcing on the ocean state, we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Our results show that tidal mixing in the North Pacific Ocean strongly affects the global thermohaline circulation. We also list some effects that are not considered in the parameterisation.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
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Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
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We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
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The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
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The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
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To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
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We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Christian Stepanek, Eric Samakinwa, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 2275–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, 2020
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Future climate is expected to be warmer than today. We study climate based on simulations of the mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago), which was a time of elevated temperatures, and discuss implications for the future. Our results are provided towards a comparison to both proxy evidence and output of other climate models. We simulate a mid-Pliocene climate that is both warmer and wetter than today. Some climate characteristics can be more directly transferred to the near future than others.
Florian Fuhrmann, Benedikt Diensberg, Xun Gong, Gerrit Lohmann, and Frank Sirocko
Clim. Past, 16, 2221–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, 2020
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Proxy data of sediment cores, speleothem, pollen and isotope data were used to reconstruct past aridity of eight regions of the world over the last 60 000 years. These regions show humid conditions during the early MIS3 (60 to 45 ka). Also the early Holocene (14 to 6 ka) was humid throughout the regions. In contrast, MIS2 and the LGM were arid in Northern Nemisphere records. On- and offsets of aridity/humidity differ between the regions. All this is in good agreement with recent model results.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
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The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Eric Samakinwa, Christian Stepanek, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1643–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, 2020
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Boundary conditions, forcing, and methodology for the two phases of PlioMIP differ considerably. We compare results from PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 simulations. We also carry out sensitivity experiments to infer the relative contribution of different boundary conditions to mid-Pliocene warmth. Our results show dominant effects of mid-Pliocene geography on the climate state and also that prescribing orbital forcing for different time slices within the mid-Pliocene could lead to pronounced variations.
Paul Gierz, Lars Ackermann, Christian B. Rodehacke, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian Stepanek, Dirk Barbi, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, 2020
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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In this study, we describe the SCOPE coupler, which is used connect the ECHAM6/JSBACH/FESOM1.4 climate model to the PISM 1.1.4 ice sheet model. This system is used to simulate IPCC scenarios projected for the future, and several warm periods in the past; the mid Holocene and the Last Interglacial. Our new model allows us to simulate the ice sheet’s response to changes in the climatic conditions, providing a new avenue of investigation over the previous models, which keep the cryosphere fixed.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Aimei Zhu, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene, Min-Te Chen, Yonghua Wu, Shulan Ge, Yanguang Liu, Xinru Xue, Gerrit Lohmann, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 16, 387–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, 2020
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Large-scale reorganization of global ocean circulation has been documented in a variety of marine archives, including the enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water NPIW. Our data support both the model- and data-based ideas that the enhanced NPIW mainly developed during cold spells, while an expansion of oxygen-poor zones occurred at warming intervals (Bölling-Alleröd).
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Evan J. Gowan, Lu Niu, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019
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The speed of ice sheet flow is largely controlled by the strength of the ice–bed interface. We present three datasets on the geological properties of regions in North America, Greenland and Iceland that were covered by Quaternary ice sheets. These include the grain size of glacial sediments, the continuity of sediment cover and bedrock geology. Simple ice modelling experiments show that altering the basal strength of the ice sheet on the basis of these datasets impacts ice thickness.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 3923–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, 2018
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We present a new surface melt scheme for land ice. Derived from the energy balance of melting surfaces, the scheme may be particularly suitable for long ice-sheet simulations of past and future climates. It is computationally inexpensive and can be adapted to changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric composition. The scheme yields a better spatial representation of surface melt than common empirical schemes when applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet under present-day climate conditions.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Axel Wagner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Matthias Prange
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, 2018
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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This study demonstrates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on variations in grid resolution and resolution-dependent orography in simulations of the Mid-Holocene. A set of Mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments is carried out. The simulated Mid-Holocene temperature differences (low versus high resolution) reveal a response that regionally exceeds the Mid-Holocene to preindustrial modelled temperature anomalies, and show partly reversed signs across the same geographical regions.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Akil Hossain, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Lu Niu, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian Hinck, and Evan J. Gowan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial-interglacial cycle is investigated by using output from PMIP3 models. The results show large diversity in simulated ice sheets between different models. We found that summer surface air temperature pattern resembles the ice sheet extent pattern at the LGM. This study implies careful constrains on climate output is essential for simulating reliable glacial-interglacial Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.
Vera D. Meyer, Jens Hefter, Gerrit Lohmann, Lars Max, Ralf Tiedemann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 13, 359–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, 2017
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Madlene Pfeiffer and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 12, 1313–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, 2016
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The Last Interglacial was warmer, with a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), compared to the late Holocene. We analyse – through climate model simulations – the impact of a reduced GIS on the global surface air temperature and find a relatively strong warming especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results are then compared to temperature reconstructions, indicating good agreement with respect to the pattern. However, the simulated temperatures underestimate the proxy-based temperatures.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
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In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
M. Forrest, J. T. Eronen, T. Utescher, G. Knorr, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, and T. Hickler
Clim. Past, 11, 1701–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, 2015
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We simulated Late Miocene (11-7 Million years ago) vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations: 280ppm CO2 and 450ppm CO2. We compared the simulated vegetation to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.
X. Shi and G. Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Our work is to investigate to what degree the open water ice formation affects the ice and ocean properties.
Our results show a positive feedback among the Arctic sea ice, the AMOC, and the surface air temperature in the Arctic.
The sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation.
A link between the climate of Northern Hemisphere continents and the lead closing rate during ice formation period is also shown by the model.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
D. Barbi, G. Lohmann, K. Grosfeld, and M. Thoma
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2003–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, 2014
T. Goelles, K. Grosfeld, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1395–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, 2014
A. Basu, M. G. Schultz, S. Schröder, L. Francois, X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
C. Giry, T. Felis, M. Kölling, W. Wei, G. Lohmann, and S. Scheffers
Clim. Past, 9, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
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The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Enhancing winter climate simulations of the Great Lakes: insights from a new coupled lake–ice–atmosphere (CLIAv1) system on the importance of integrating 3D hydrodynamics with a regional climate model
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Andrea Storto, Sergey Frolov, Laura Slivinski, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4789–4804, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4789-2025, 2025
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Inaccuracies in air–sea heat fluxes severely degrade the accuracy of ocean numerical simulations. Here, we use artificial neural networks to correct air–sea heat fluxes as a function of oceanic and atmospheric state predictors. The correction successfully improves surface and subsurface ocean temperatures beyond the training period and in prediction experiments.
Chang Liao, L. Ruby Leung, Yilin Fang, Teklu Tesfa, and Robinson Negron-Juarez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4601–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4601-2025, 2025
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Understanding horizontal groundwater flow is important for understanding how water moves through the ground. Current climate models often simplify this process because they do not have information about the land surface that is detailed enough. Our study developed a new model that divides the land surface into hillslopes to better represent how groundwater flows. This model can help improve predictions of water availability and how it affects ecosystems.
Sebastian Müller, Martin Lange, Thomas Fischer, Sara König, Matthias Kelbling, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, and Stephan Thober
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4483–4498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4483-2025, 2025
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This study presents FINAM (
FINAM is not a model), a new coupling framework written in Python to dynamically connect independently developed models. Python, as the ultimate glue language, enables the use of codes from nearly any programming language like Fortran, C++, Rust, and others. FINAM is designed to simplify the integration of various models with minimal effort, as demonstrated through various examples ranging from simple to complex systems.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4399–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025, 2025
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Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone and greenhouse gases alone are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Pengfei Xue, Chenfu Huang, Yafang Zhong, Michael Notaro, Miraj B. Kayastha, Xing Zhou, Chuyan Zhao, Christa Peters-Lidard, Carlos Cruz, and Eric Kemp
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4293–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4293-2025, 2025
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This study introduces a new 3D lake–ice–atmosphere coupled model that significantly improves winter climate simulations for the Great Lakes compared to traditional 1D lake model coupling. The key contribution is the identification of critical hydrodynamic processes – ice transport, heat advection, and shear-driven turbulence production – that influence lake thermal structure and ice cover and explain the superior performance of 3D lake models to their 1D counterparts.
Anisbel Leon-Marcos, Moritz Zeising, Manuela van Pinxteren, Sebastian Zeppenfeld, Astrid Bracher, Elena Barbaro, Anja Engel, Matteo Feltracco, Ina Tegen, and Bernd Heinold
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4183–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4183-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4183-2025, 2025
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This study represents the primary marine organic aerosol (PMOA) emissions, focusing on their sea–atmosphere transfer. Using the FESOM2.1–REcoM3 model, concentrations of key organic biomolecules were estimated and integrated into the ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 aerosol–climate model. Results highlight the influence of marine biological activity and surface winds on PMOA emissions, with reasonably good agreement with observations improving aerosol representation in the southern oceans.
Ziming Ke, Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Xiaohong Liu, and Hailong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4137–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4137-2025, 2025
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This study assesses volcanic aerosol representation in E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model), showing that an emission-based approach moderately improves temperature variability and cloud responses compared to a prescribed forcing approach, yet significant bias persists.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4009–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4009-2025, 2025
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Philipp Weiss, Ross Herbert, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3877–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3877-2025, 2025
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Aerosols strongly influence Earth's climate as they interact with radiation and clouds. New Earth system models run at resolutions of a few kilometers. To simulate the Earth system with interactive aerosols, we developed a new aerosol module. It represents aerosols as an ensemble of lognormal modes with given sizes and compositions. We present a year-long simulation with four modes at a resolution of 5 km. It captures key processes like the formation of dust storms in the Sahara.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3799–3817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3799-2025, 2025
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This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with vital physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for multi-objective optimization of rice irrigation schemes at a large scale.
Carolina A. Bieri, Francina Dominguez, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Ying Fan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3755–3779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3755-2025, 2025
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Access to deep moisture below the Earth's surface is important for vegetation in areas of the Amazon where there is little precipitation for part of the year. Most existing numerical models of the Earth system do not adequately capture where and when deep root water uptake occurs. We address this by adding deep soil layers and a root water uptake feature to an existing model. Out modifications lead to increased dry-month transpiration and improved simulation of the annual transpiration cycle.
Sergi Palomas, Mario C. Acosta, Gladys Utrera, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3661–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, 2025
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We present an automatic tool that optimizes resource distribution in coupled climate models, enhancing speed and reducing computational costs without requiring expert knowledge. Users can set energy/time criteria or limit resource usage. Tested on various European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) configurations and high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, it achieved up to 34 % faster simulations with fewer resources.
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
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As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
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We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
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NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
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We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
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The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
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Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
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Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
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The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Sergei Petrov, Andreas Will, and Beate Geyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-710, 2025
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This study introduces a new method that helps improve the accuracy of climate models by automatically selecting the best parameters to match real-world observations. Instead of manually adjusting many parameters, the method uses a mathematical tool to find the most appropriate settings for the model. It can be especially helpful for researchers who introduce new physical parameters into climate models to assess their impact on model results and optimize them along with the old ones.
Michael Meier, Christof Bigler, and Isabelle Chuine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-460, 2025
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Formulated according to the leaf development process, the DP3 model of leaf coloring considerably contrasts previous models and allows to set up new hypotheses, e.g. on aging versus stress caused color changes. The DP3 model was as accurate as previous models and a comparison to the constant simulation of the mean date of leaf coloring indicated that noisy leaf coloring data forced the models to resort to this mean, which hinders model evaluation.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
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We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Zhongwang Wei, Qingchen Xu, Fan Bai, Xionghui Xu, Zixin Wei, Wenzong Dong, Hongbin Liang, Nan Wei, Xingjie Lu, Lu Li, Shupeng Zhang, Hua Yuan, Laibo Liu, and Yongjiu Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1380, 2025
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Land surface models are used for simulating earth's surface interacts with the atmosphere. As models grow more complex and detailed, researchers need better tools to evaluate their performance. OpenBench, a new software system that makes evaluation process more comprehensive and efficient. It stands out by incorporating various factors and working with data at any scale which enabling scientists to incorporate new types of models and measurements as our understanding of Earth’s systems evolves.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
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Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, 2025
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We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D, a generalized 3-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-609, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
Beiyao Xu, Steven Dobbie, Huiyi Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yu Jiang, Andrew Challinor, Karina Williams, Yunxia Wang, and Tijian Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4077, 2025
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Ozone (O3) pollution harms rice production and threatens food security. To understand these impacts, we calibrated a crop model using unique data from experiments where rice was grown in open fields under controlled O3 exposure (free air). This is the first time such data has been used to improve a model’s ability to predict how rice responds to O3 pollution. Our work provides a more accurate tool to study O3’s effects and guide strategies to protect agriculture.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
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Short summary
Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe...
