Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1331-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1331-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An automatic lake-model application using near-real-time data forcing: development of an operational forecast workflow (COASTLINES) for Lake Erie
Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON,
K7L 3N6, Canada
Leon Boegman
Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON,
K7L 3N6, Canada
Shiliang Shan
Department of Physics and Space Science, Royal Military College of
Canada, Kingston, ON, K7K 7B4, Canada
Ryan Mulligan
Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON,
K7L 3N6, Canada
Related authors
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Laura L. Swatridge, Ryan P. Mulligan, Leon Boegman, and Shiliang Shan
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-151, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an operational forecast system, COATLINES-LO, that can simulate water levels and surface waves in Lake Ontario driven by forecasts of wind speeds and pressure fields from an atmospheric model. The model requires a relatively small computational demand and results compare well with near real-time observations, as well as with results from other existing forecast systems. Results show that with shorter forecast lengths, storm surge and waves predictions can improve in accuracy.
Shuqi Lin, Donald C. Pierson, and Jorrit P. Mesman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-35-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The risks brought by the proliferation of algal blooms motivate the improvement of bloom forecasting tools, but algal blooms are complexly controlled and difficult to predict. Given rapid growth of monitoring data and advances in computation, machine learning offers an alternative prediction methodology. This study tested various machine learning workflows in a dimictic mesotrophic lake and gave promising predictions of the seasonal variations and the timing of algal blooms.
Martin Franz, Michel Jaboyedoff, Ryan P. Mulligan, Yury Podladchikov, and W. Andy Take
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1229–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A landslide-generated tsunami is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. This phenomenon threatens numerous lives and infrastructures around the world. To assess this natural hazard, we developed an efficient numerical model able to simulate the landslide, the momentum transfer and the wave all at once. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and physical experiments validates our model and its novel momentum transfer approach.
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)
Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model
Implementation of a brittle sea ice rheology in an Eulerian, finite-difference, C-grid modeling framework: impact on the simulated deformation of sea ice in the Arctic
HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model
A 3D-Var assimilation scheme for vertical velocity with CMA-MESO v5.0
Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
An urban module coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to improve hydrothermal simulations in urban systems
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models
Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics
Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Implementing detailed nucleation predictions in the Earth system model EC-Earth3.3.4: sulfuric acid–ammonia nucleation
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC_v1.0)
Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Parallel SnowModel (v1.0): a parallel implementation of a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)
LB-SCAM: a learning-based method for efficient large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM)
Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3
A revised model of global silicate weathering considering the influence of vegetation cover on erosion rate
A radiative–convective model computing precipitation with the maximum entropy production hypothesis
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: Spatially Explicit Earth System Model Emulation for Monthly Precipitation and Temperature
Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0
Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0
Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model
cfr (v2024.1.26): a Python package for climate field reconstruction
NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps
Evaluation of isoprene emissions from the coupled model SURFEX–MEGANv2.1
A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics
The regional climate–chemistry–ecology coupling model RegCM-Chem (v4.6)–YIBs (v1.0): development and application
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 into the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1
The computational and energy cost of simulation and storage for climate science: lessons from CMIP6
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES 1.3.00
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high-latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2
Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia
G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
Modeling the effects of tropospheric ozone on the growth and yield of global staple crops with DSSAT v4.8.0
A one-dimensional urban flow model with an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme and refined turbulent transport (MLUCM v3.0)
DCMIP2016: the tropical cyclone test case
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Zheng Xiang, Yongkang Xue, Weidong Guo, Melannie D. Hartman, Ye Liu, and William J. Parton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6437–6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A process-based plant carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) interface coupling framework has been developed which mainly focuses on plant resistance and N-limitation effects on photosynthesis, plant respiration, and plant phenology. A dynamic C / N ratio is introduced to represent plant resistance and self-adjustment. The framework has been implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model, and testing results show a general improvement in simulating plant properties with this framework.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5913–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions deposit material in the upper atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of Earth's atmosphere for subsequent years. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a test bed for climate attribution studies.
Hong Li, Yi Yang, Jian Sun, Yuan Jiang, Ruhui Gan, and Qian Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5883–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Vertical atmospheric motions play a vital role in convective-scale precipitation forecasts by connecting atmospheric dynamics with cloud development. A three-dimensional variational vertical velocity assimilation scheme is developed within the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, utilizing the adiabatic Richardson equation as the observation operator. A 10 d continuous run and an individual case study demonstrate improved forecasts, confirming the scheme's effectiveness.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Yibing Wang, Xianhong Xie, Bowen Zhu, Arken Tursun, Fuxiao Jiang, Yao Liu, Dawei Peng, and Buyun Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5803–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Urban expansion intensifies challenges like urban heat and urban dry islands. To address this, we developed an urban module, VIC-urban, in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Tested in Beijing, VIC-urban accurately simulated turbulent heat fluxes, runoff, and land surface temperature. We provide a reliable tool for large-scale simulations considering urban environment and a systematic urban modelling framework within VIC, offering crucial insights for urban planners and designers.
Jeremy Carter, Erick A. Chacón-Montalván, and Amber Leeson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5733–5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on life on Earth. However, the output is often afflicted with some bias. In this paper, a novel model is developed to predict and correct bias in the output of climate models. The model captures uncertainty in the correction and explicitly models underlying spatial correlation between points. These features are of key importance for climate change impact assessments and resulting decision-making.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5705–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed using different datasets, the coupled model shows strong correlations of key variables, such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model increases significantly, while the overall performance does not degrade.
Hugo Banderier, Christian Zeman, David Leutwyler, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5573–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of reduced-precision arithmetic in a state-of-the-art regional climate model by studying the results of 10-year-long simulations. After this time, the results of the reduced precision and the standard implementation are hardly different. This should encourage the use of reduced precision in climate models to exploit the speedup and memory savings it brings. The methodology used in this work can help researchers verify reduced-precision implementations of their model.
David Fuchs, Steven C. Sherwood, Abhnil Prasad, Kirill Trapeznikov, and Jim Gimlett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) of unresolved processes offers many new possibilities for improving weather and climate models, but integrating ML into the models has been an engineering challenge, and there are performance issues. We present a new software plugin for this integration, TorchClim, that is scalable and flexible and thereby allows a new level of experimentation with the ML approach. We also provide guidance on ML training and demonstrate a skillful hybrid ML atmosphere model.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Hunter York Brown, Benjamin Wagman, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, Benjamin Hillman, Xiaohong Liu, Ziming Ke, and Lin Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5087–5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to long-lived, microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere which act to cool the Earth's surface by reflecting the Sun's light back to space. We include and test this process in a global climate model, E3SM. E3SM is tested against satellite and balloon observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, showing that with these particles in the model we reasonably recreate Pinatubo and its global effects. We also explore how particle size leads to these effects.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, Wubing Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, and Xilong Che
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3975–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To enhance the efficiency of experiments using SCAM, we train a learning-based surrogate model to facilitate large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of combinations of multiple parameters. Employing a hybrid method, we investigate the joint sensitivity of multi-parameter combinations across typical cases, identifying the most sensitive three-parameter combination out of 11. Subsequently, we conduct a tuning process aimed at reducing output errors in these cases.
Yung-Yao Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Wan-Ling Tseng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3897–3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the CAM5–SIT coupled model to investigate the effects of SST feedback frequency on the MJO simulations with intervals at 30 min, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The simulations become increasingly unrealistic as the frequency of the SST feedback decreases. Our results suggest that more spontaneous air--sea interaction (e.g., ocean response within 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is key to the realistic simulation of the MJO.
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an open-source software, the PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP), developed for a comprehensive comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with real-world observations. Using diverse metrics evaluating climatology, variability, and extremes simulated in thousands of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), PMP aids in benchmarking model improvements across generations. PMP also enables efficient tracking of performance evolutions during ESM developments.
Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, and Yongyun Hu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3949–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to the silicate weathering fluxes measured at large river basins, the current models tend to systematically overestimate the fluxes over the tropical region, which leads to an overestimation of the global total weathering flux. The most possible cause of such bias is found to be the overestimation of tropical surface erosion, which indicates that the tropical vegetation likely slows down physical erosion significantly. We propose a way of taking this effect into account in models.
Quentin Pikeroen, Didier Paillard, and Karine Watrin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3801–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
All accurate climate models use equations with poorly defined parameters, where knobs for the parameters are turned to fit the observations. This process is called tuning. In this article, we use another paradigm. We use a thermodynamic hypothesis, the maximum entropy production, to compute temperatures, energy fluxes, and precipitation, where tuning is impossible. For now, the 1D vertical model is used for a tropical atmosphere. The correct order of magnitude of precipitation is computed.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleußner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-278, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Their joint distribution largely determines the division into climate regimes. Yet, projecting precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs.
Jishi Zhang, Peter Bogenschutz, Qi Tang, Philip Cameron-smith, and Chengzhu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3687–3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a regionally refined climate model that allows resolved convection and performed a 20-year projection to the end of the century. The model has a resolution of 3.25 km in California, which allows us to predict climate with unprecedented accuracy, and a resolution of 100 km for the rest of the globe to achieve efficient, self-consistent simulations. The model produces superior results in reproducing climate patterns over California that typical modern climate models cannot resolve.
Xiaohui Zhong, Xing Yu, and Hao Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3667–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In order to forecast localized warm-sector rainfall in the south China region, numerical weather prediction models are being run with finer grid spacing. The conventional convection parameterization (CP) performs poorly in the gray zone, necessitating the development of a scale-aware scheme. We propose a machine learning (ML) model to replace the scale-aware CP scheme. Evaluation against the original CP scheme has shown that the ML-based CP scheme can provide accurate and reliable predictions.
Taufiq Hassan, Kai Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Balwinder Singh, Shixuan Zhang, Hailong Wang, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3507–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are an essential part of global aerosol models. Significant errors can exist from the loss of emission heterogeneity. We introduced an emission treatment that significantly improved aerosol emission heterogeneity in high-resolution model simulations, with improvements in simulated aerosol surface concentrations. The emission treatment will provide a more accurate representation of aerosol emissions and their effects on climate.
Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Dominique Guillot, Deborah Khider, Robert Tardif, and Walter A. Perkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate field reconstruction encompasses methods that estimate the evolution of climate in space and time based on natural archives. It is useful to investigate climate variations and validate climate models, but its implementation and use can be difficult for non-experts. This paper introduces a user-friendly Python package called cfr to make these methods more accessible, thanks to the computational and visualization tools that facilitate efficient and reproducible research on past climates.
Rose V. Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, and Andrew D. Ashton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3433–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Models of rocky coastal erosion help us understand the controls on coastal morphology and evolution. In this paper, we present a simplified model of coastline erosion driven by either uniform erosion where coastline erosion is constant or wave-driven erosion where coastline erosion is a function of the wave power. This model can be used to evaluate how coastline changes reflect climate, sea-level history, material properties, and the relative influence of different erosional processes.
Safae Oumami, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Guidard, Pierre Tulet, and Paul David Hamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3385–3408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we coupled the SURFEX and MEGAN models. The aim of this coupling is to improve the estimation of biogenic fluxes by using the SURFEX canopy environment model. The coupled model results were validated and several sensitivity tests were performed. The coupled-model total annual isoprene flux is 442 Tg; this value is within the range of other isoprene estimates reported. The ultimate aim of this coupling is to predict the impact of climate change on biogenic emissions.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-923, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI version 2.0 including the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled with the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in the ICON-CLM model makes it more flexible to couple with an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, William K. M. Lau, Kyu-Myong Kim, Brian Medeiros, Brian J. Soden, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Bosong Zhang, and Balwinder Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3111–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3111-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seven new experimental setups designed to interfere with cloud radiative heating have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). These experiments include both those that test the mean impact of cloud radiative heating and those examining its covariance with circulations. This paper documents the code changes and steps needed to run these experiments. Results corroborate prior findings for how cloud radiative heating impacts circulations and rainfall patterns.
Mario C. Acosta, Sergi Palomas, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Gladys Utrera, Joachim Biercamp, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Reinhard Budich, Miguel Castrillo, Arnaud Caubel, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Italo Epicoco, Uwe Fladrich, Sylvie Joussaume, Alok Kumar Gupta, Bryan Lawrence, Philippe Le Sager, Grenville Lister, Marie-Pierre Moine, Jean-Christophe Rioual, Sophie Valcke, Niki Zadeh, and Venkatramani Balaji
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3081–3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a collection of performance metrics gathered during the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a worldwide initiative to study climate change. We analyse the metrics that resulted from collaboration efforts among many partners and models and describe our findings to demonstrate the utility of our study for the scientific community. The research contributes to understanding climate modelling performance on the current high-performance computing (HPC) architectures.
Sabine Doktorowski, Jan Kretzschmar, Johannes Quaas, Marc Salzmann, and Odran Sourdeval
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3099–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Especially over the midlatitudes, precipitation is mainly formed via the ice phase. In this study we focus on the initial snow formation process in the ICON-AES, the aggregation process. We use a stochastical approach for the aggregation parameterization and investigate the influence in the ICON-AES. Therefore, a distribution function of cloud ice is created, which is evaluated with satellite data. The new approach leads to cloud ice loss and an improvement in the process rate bias.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Wang, Kai Zhang, Samson M. Hagos, and Shixuan Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3025–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions have profound socio-economic impacts. This study introduces a new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system for a coupled climate model. We demonstrate improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature in many global regions and throughout the soil layers. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought. The WCLDA system provides the groundwork for future predictability studies.
Justin Peter, Elisabeth Vogel, Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Louise Wilson, Pandora Hope, Andrew Dowdy, Greg Kociuba, Sri Srikanthan, Vi Co Duong, Jake Roussis, Vjekoslav Matic, Zaved Khan, Alison Oke, Margot Turner, Stuart Baron-Hay, Fiona Johnson, Raj Mehrotra, Ashish Sharma, Marcus Thatcher, Ali Azarvinand, Steven Thomas, Ghyslaine Boschat, Chantal Donnelly, and Robert Argent
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2755–2781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We detail the production of datasets and communication to end users of high-resolution projections of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture for the entire Australian continent. This is important as previous projections for Australia were for small regions and used differing techniques for their projections, making comparisons difficult across Australia's varied climate zones. The data will be beneficial for research purposes and to aid adaptation to climate change.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-362, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improve an existing climate model to account for human water usage across domestic, industrial, and agriculture purposes. With the new capabilities, the model is now better equipped for studying questions related to water scarcity in both present and future conditions under climate change. Despite the advancements, there remains important limitations in our modelling framework which requires further work.
Jose Rafael Guarin, Jonas Jägermeyr, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Fabio A. A. Oliveira, Senthold Asseng, Kenneth Boote, Joshua Elliott, Lisa Emberson, Ian Foster, Gerrit Hoogenboom, David Kelly, Alex C. Ruane, and Katrina Sharps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2547–2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of ozone (O3) stress on crop photosynthesis and leaf senescence were added to maize, rice, soybean, and wheat crop models. The modified models reproduced growth and yields under different O3 levels measured in field experiments and reported in the literature. The combined interactions between O3 and additional stresses were reproduced with the new models. These updated crop models can be used to simulate impacts of O3 stress under future climate change and air pollution scenarios.
Jiachen Lu, Negin Nazarian, Melissa Anne Hart, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Alberto Martilli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances urban canopy models by refining key assumptions. Simulations for various urban scenarios indicate discrepancies in turbulent transport efficiency for flow properties. We propose two modifications that involve characterizing diffusion coefficients for momentum and turbulent kinetic energy separately and introducing a physics-based
mass-fluxterm. These adjustments enhance the model's performance, offering more reliable temperature and surface flux estimates.
Justin L. Willson, Kevin A. Reed, Christiane Jablonowski, James Kent, Peter H. Lauritzen, Ramachandran Nair, Mark A. Taylor, Paul A. Ullrich, Colin M. Zarzycki, David M. Hall, Don Dazlich, Ross Heikes, Celal Konor, David Randall, Thomas Dubos, Yann Meurdesoif, Xi Chen, Lucas Harris, Christian Kühnlein, Vivian Lee, Abdessamad Qaddouri, Claude Girard, Marco Giorgetta, Daniel Reinert, Hiroaki Miura, Tomoki Ohno, and Ryuji Yoshida
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2493–2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential to understanding their behavior in a changing climate. One way this is accomplished is through model intercomparison projects, where results from multiple climate models are analyzed to provide benchmark solutions for the wider climate modeling community. This study describes and analyzes the previously developed TC test case for nine climate models in an intercomparison project, providing solutions that aid in model development.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Cited articles
Anderson, E. J., Fujisaki-Manome, A., Kessler, J., Lang, G. A., Chu, P. Y.,
Kelly, J. G. W., Chen, Y., and Wang, J.: Ice forecasting in the
next-generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS), J. Mar.
Sci. Eng., 6, 123, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040123, 2018.
Antenucci, J., and Imerito, A.: The CWR dynamic reservoir simulation model DYRESM: Science Manual, Center for Water Research: The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia, 2000.
Baracchini, T., Hummel, S., Verlaan, M., Cimatoribus, A., Wüest, A., and
Bouffard, D.: An automated calibration framework and open source tools for
3D lake hydrodynamic models, Environ. Modell. Softw., 134,
104787, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104787, 2020a.
Baracchini, T., Wüest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Meteolakes: An operational
online three-dimensional forecasting platform for lake hydrodynamics, Water
Res., 172, 115529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.115529, 2020b.
Beletsky, D., Hawley, N., Rao, Y. R., Vanderploeg, H. A., Beletsky, R.,
Schwab, D. J., and Ruberg, S. A.: Summer thermal structure and anticyclonic
circulation of Lake Erie, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051002,
2012.
Bocaniov, S. A. and Scavia, D.: Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake
hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three-dimensional dynamic models to
enhance lake management criteria, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4247–4263,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018170, 2016.
Bocaniov, S. A., Lamb, K. G., Liu, W., Rao, Y. R., and Smith, R. E.: High
sensitivity of lake hypoxia to air temperatures, winds, and nutrient
loading: Insights from a 3-D lake model, Water Resour. Res., 56,
e2019WR027040, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR027040, 2020.
Boegman, L., Loewen, M. R., Hamblin, P., and Culver, D.: Application of a
two-dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir model to Lake Erie, Can. J.
Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58, 858–869, 2001.
Boegman, L., Loewen, M. R., Hamblin, P. F., and Culver, D. A.: Vertical mixing and weak stratification over zebra mussel colonies in western Lake Erie, Limnol. Oceanogr., 53, 1093–1110, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2008.53.3.1093, 2008.
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H.: A third-generation wave model
for coastal regions 1. Model description and validation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 104, 7649–7666, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622, 1999.
Bouffard, D. and Lemmin, U.: Kelvin waves in Lake Geneva, J. Great Lakes
Res., 39, 637–645, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2013.09.005, 2013.
Bouffard, D., Boegman, L., and Rao, Y. R.: Poincaré wave–induced mixing
in a large lake, Limnol. Oceanogr., 57, 1201–1216, 2012.
Bouffard, D., Ackerman, J. D., and Boegman, L.: Factors affecting the
development and dynamics of hypoxia in a large shallow stratified lake:
hourly to seasonal patterns, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2380–2394, 2013.
Bouffard, D., Boegman, L., Ackerman, J. D., Valipour, R., and Rao, Y. R.:
Near-inertial wave driven dissolved oxygen transfer through the thermocline
of a large lake, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 300–307,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.03.014, 2014.
Brookes, J. D. and Carey, C. C.: Resilence to blooms, Science, 334, 46–47, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1207349, 2011.
Buehner, M., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Beaulne, A., Charette, C., Garand, L.,
Heilliette, S., Lapalme, E., Laroche, S., Macpherson, S. R., Morneau, J.,
and Zadra, A.: Implementation of deterministic weather forecasting systems
based on ensemble–variational data assimilation at Environment Canada. Part
I: the global system, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2532–2559, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00354.1, 2015.
Caramatti, I., Peeters, F., Hamilton, D., and Hofmann, H.: Modelling
inter-annual and spatial variability of ice cover in a temperate lake with
complex morphology, Hydrol. Process., 34, 691–704, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13618, 2019.
Casulli, V. and Cheng, R.: Semi-implicit finite difference methods for
three-dimensional shallow water flow, Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fl., 15,
629–648, https://doi.org/10.1002/fld.1650150602 1992.
Chen, C., Beardsley, R. C., Cowles, G., Qi, J., Lai, Z., Gao, G., Stuebe,
D., Xu, Q., Xue, P., Ge, J., Ji, R., Tian, R., Huang, H., Wu, L., and Lin,
H.: An unstructured grid, finite-volume community ocean model FVCOM user
manual, SMAST/UMASSD Tech. Rep. 11-1101, Dartmouth, Mass., Sea Grant College Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, 373 pp., available at: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/MITSG_12-25.pdf (last access: December 2021), 2012.
Chu, P. Y., Kelley, J. G. W., Mott, G. V., Zhang, A., and Lang, G. A.:
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great
Lakes Operational Forecast System, Ocean Dynam., 61, 1305–1316,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0424-5, 2011.
Gaudard, A., Schwefel, R., Vinnå, L. R., Schmid, M., Wüest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Optimizing the parameterization of deep mixing and internal seiches in one-dimensional hydrodynamic models: a case study with Simstrat v1.3, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3411–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3411-2017, 2017.
Gaudard, A., Råman Vinnå, L., Bärenbold, F., Schmid, M., and Bouffard, D.: Toward an open access to high-frequency lake modeling and statistics data for scientists and practitioners – the case of Swiss lakes using Simstrat v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3955–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, 2019.
Gronewold, A. D. and Rood, R. B.: Recent water level changes across Earth's
largest lake system and implications for future variability, J. Great Lakes
Res., 45, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2018.10.012, 2019.
Gu, H., Jin, J., Wu, Y., Ek, M. B., and Subin, Z. M.: Calibration and
validation of lake surface temperature simulations with the coupled WRF-lake
model, Climatic Change, 129, 471–483, 2015.
Hamblin, P. F.: Great Lakes storm surge of April 6, 1979, J. Great Lakes
Res., 5, 312–315, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(79)72157-5, 1979.
Hamblin, P. F.: Meteorological forecing and water level fluctuations on Lake
Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 13, 436–453, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(87)71665-7, 1987.
Hecky, R. E., Smith, R. E. H., Barton, D. R., Guildford, S. J., Taylor, W.
D., Charlton, M. N., and Howell, T.: The nearshore phosphorus shunt: a
consequence of ecosystem engineering by dreissenids in the Laurentian Great
Lakes, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 61, 1285–1293, https://doi.org/10.1139/F04-065, 2004.
Higgins, S. N., Hecky, R. E., and Guildford, S. J.: Environmental controls
of cladophora growth dynamics in eastern Lake Erie: Application of the
Cladophora Growth Model (CGM), J. Great Lakes Res., 32, 629–644,
https://doi.org/10.3394/0380-1330(2006)32[629:ECOCGD]2.0.CO;2, 2006.
Hipsey, M. R., Bruce, L. C., and Hamilton, D. P.: GLM – General Lake Model.
Model overview and user information, Technical Manual, The University of
Western Australia, Perth, Australia, available at: https://aed.see.uwa.edu.au/research/models/GLM/downloads/GLM_Tutorial_2014.pdf (last access: December 2021), 2014.
Hodges, B. R., Imberger, J., Saggio, A., and Winters, K. B.: Modeling
basin-scale internal waves in a stratified lake, Limnol. Oceanogr.,
45, 1603–1620, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2000.45.7.1603, 2000.
HydroNumerics: Homepage, available at: https://www.hydronumerics.com.au/ (last access: December 2021), 2022.
Jabbari, A., Ackerman, J. D., Boegman, L., and Zhao, Y.: Episodic hypoxia in
the western basin of Lake Erie, Limnol. Oceanogr., 64, 2220–2236,
2019.
Jabbari, A., Ackerman, J. D., Boegman, L., and Zhao, Y.: Increases in Great
Lake winds and extreme events facilitate interbasin coupling and reduce
water quality in Lake Erie, Scientific Reports, 11, 5733,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84961-9, 2021.
Kelley, J. G. W., Hobgood, J. S., Bedford, K. W., and Schwab, D. J.:
Generation of Three-Dimensional Lake Model Forecasts for Lake Erie, Weather
Forecast., 13, 659–687, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0659:GOTDLM>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Laval, B., Imberger, J., Hodges, B. R., and Stocker, R.: Modeling
circulation in lakes: Spatial and temporal variations, Limnol.
Oceanogr., 48, 983–994, 2003.
León, L. F., Imberger, J., Smith, R. E. H., Hecky, R. E., Lam, D. C. L.,
and Schertzer, W. M.: Modeling as a tool for nutrient management in Lake
Erie: a hydrodynamics study, J. Great Lakes Res., 31, 309–318,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(05)70323-3, 2005.
León, L. F., Smith, R. E. H., Hipsey, M. R., Bocaniov, S. A., Higgins,
S. N., Hecky, R. E., Antenucci, J. P., Imberger, J. A., and Guildford, S.
J.: Application of a 3D hydrodynamic-biological model for seasonal and
spatial dynamics of water quality and phytoplankton in Lake Erie, J. Great
Lakes Res., 37, 41–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2010.12.007, 2011.
Leonard, B. P.: The ULTIMATE conservative difference scheme applied to
unsteady one-dimensional advection, Comp. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng., 88,
17–74, 1991.
Lesser, G. R., Roelvink, J. V., Van Kester, J. A. T. M., and Stelling, G.
S.: Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model,
Coast. Eng., 51, 883–915, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.07.014, 2004.
Lin, S., Boegman, L., Shan, S., and Mulligan, R.: An automatic lake-model application using near real-time data forcing: Development of an operational forecast model for Lake Erie, V1, Scholars Portal Dataverse [data set], https://doi.org/10.5683/SP2/VTN7WC, 2021.
Liu, W., Bocaniov, S. A., Lamb, K. G., and Smith, R. E. H.: Three
dimensional modeling of the effects of changes in meteorological forcing on
the thermal structure of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 827–840,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.08.002, 2014.
Loewen, M., Ackerman, J. D., and Hamblin, P. F.: Environmental implications
of stratification and turbulent mixing in a shallow lake basin, Can. J.
Fish. Aquat. Sci., 64, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.1139/F06-165, 2007.
Lv, Z., Zhang, S., Jin, J., Wu, Y., and Ek, M. B.: Coupling of a physically
based lake model into the climate forecast system to improve winter climate
forecasts for the Great Lakes region, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6503–6517,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04939-2, 2019.
Madani, M., Seth, R., León, L. F., Valipour, R., and McCrimmon, C.:
Three dimensional modelling to assess contributions of major tributaries to
fecal microbial pollution of lake St. Clair and Sandpoint Beach, J. Great
Lakes Res., 46, 159–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.12.005, 2020.
Meyers, T. and Dale, R.: Predicting daily insolation with hourly cloud
height and coverage, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 22,
537–545, 1983.
Michalak, A. a. M., Anderson, E. J., Beletsky, D., Boland, S., Bosch, N. S.,
Bridgeman, T. B., Chaffin, J. D., Cho, K., Confesor, R., Daloğlu, I.,
DePinto, J. V., Evans, M. A., Fahnenstiel, G. L., He, L., Ho, J. C.,
Jenkins, L., Johengen, T. H., Kuo, K. C., LaPorte, E., Liu, X., McWilliams,
M. R., Moore, M. R., Posselt, D. J., Richards, R. P., Scavia, D., Steiner,
A. L., Verhamme, E., Wright, D. M., and Zagorski, M. A.: Record-setting
algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends
consistent with expected future conditions, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci., 110, 6448–6452, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216006110, 2013.
Mortimer, C. H.: Fifty Years of Physical Investigations and Related
Limnological Studies on Lake Erie, 1928–1977, J. Great Lakes
Res., 13, 407–435, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(87)71664-5, 1987.
Nakhaei, N., Boegman, L., Mehdizadeh, M., and Loewen, M.: Hydrodynamic
modeling of Edmonton storm-water ponds, Environ. Fluid Mech., 19, 305–327,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-018-9625-5, 2019.
Nakhaei, N., Ackerman, J. D., Bouffard, D., Rao, Y. R., and Boegman, L.:
Empirical modeling of hypolimnion and sediment oxygen demand in temperate
Canadian lakes, Inland Waters, 11, 351–367, https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1880244, 2021.
O'Connor, W. P., Schwab, D. J., and Lang, G. A.: Forecast verification for
Eta Model winds using Lake Erie storm surge water levels, Weather
Forecast., 14, 119–133, 1999.
O'Neil, J. M., Davis, T. W., Burford, M. A., and Gobler, C. J.: The rise of
harmful cyanobacteria blooms: The potential roles of eutrophication and
climate change, Harmful Algae, 14, 313–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.02.001,
2012.
The Ontario Ministry of Environment (MOE): Lake Erie fish kill
incident on September 1, 2012, Summary Report, Ontario Ministry of the Environment Southwestern Region 14, available at: https://www.ontario.ca/page/water-quality-ontario-2014-report (last access: December 2021), 2014.
O'Reilly, C. M., Sharma, S., Gray, D. K., Hampton, S. E., Read, J. S., Rowley, R. J., Schneider, P., Lenters, J. D., McIntyre, P. B., Kraemer, B. M., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Straile, D., Dong, B., Adrian, R., Allan, M. G., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Austin, J., Bailey, J. L., Baron, J. S., Brookes, J. D., de Eyto, E., Dokulil, M. T., Hamilton, D. P., Havens, K., Hetherington, A. L., Higgins, S. N., Hook, S., Izmest'eva, L. R., Joehnk, K. D., Kangur, K., Kasprzak, P., Kumagai, M., Kuusisto, E., Leshkevich, G., Livingstone, D. M., MacIntyre, S., May, L., Melack, J. M., Mueller-Navarra, D. C., Naumenko, M., Noges, P., Noges, T., North, R. P., Plisnier, P.-D., Rigosi, A., Rimmer, A., Rogora, M., Rudstam, L. G., Rusak, J. A., Salmaso, N., Samal, N. R., Schindler, D. E., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, M., Schmidt, S. R., Silow, E., Soylu, M. E., Teubner, K., Verburg, P., Voutilainen, A., Watkinson, A., Williamson, C. E., and Zhang, G.: Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10773–10781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066235, 2015.
Oveisy, A., Boegman, L., and Imberger, J.: Three-dimensional simulation of
lake and ice dynamics during winter, Limnol. Oceanogr., 57, 42–57,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2012.57.1.0043, 2012.
Paerl, H. W. and Paul, V. J.: Climate change: Links to global expansion of
harmful cyanobacteria, Water Res., 46, 1349–1363,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2011.08.002, 2012.
Paturi, S., Boegman, L., and Rao, Y. R.: Hydrodynamics of eastern Lake
Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River, J. Great Lakes Res., 38, 194–204,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.09.008, 2012.
Rao, Y. R. and Murthy, C. R.: Coastal boundary layer characteristics during
summer stratification in Lake Ontario, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1088–1104,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<1088:CBLCDS>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Rao, Y. R., Hawley, N., Charlton, M. N., and Schertzer, W. M.: Physical
processes and hypoxia in the central basin of Lake Erie, Limnol. Oceanogr.,
53, 2007–2020, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2008.53.5.2007, 2008.
Rao, Y. R., Howell, T., Watson, S. B., and Abernethy, S.: On hypoxia and
fish kills along the north shore of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 40,
187–191, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2013.11.007, 2014.
Rey, A. and Mulligan, R. P.: Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability
on RealTime Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016489, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016489, 2021.
Rowe, M. D., Anderson, E. J., Beletsky, D., Stow, C. A., Moegling, S. D., Chaffin, J. D., May, J. C., Collingsworth, P. D., Jabbari, A., and Ackerman, J. D.: Coastal Upwelling Influences Hypoxia Spatial Patterns and Nearshore Dynamics in Lake Erie, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 6154–6175, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015192, 2019.
Ruberg, S. A., Guasp, E., Hawley, N., Muzzi, R. W., Brandt, S. B., and Vanderploeg, H. A., Lane, J. C., Miller, T., and Constant, S. A.: Societal benefits of the Real‐time Coastal Observation Network (ReCON): Implications for municipal drinking water quality, Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 42, 103–109, https://doi.org/10.4031/002533208786842471, 2008.
Saber, A., James, D. E., and Hannoun, I. A.: Effects of lake water level
fluctuation due to drought and extreme winter precipitation on mixing and
water quality of an alpine lake, Case Study: Lake Arrowhead, California,
Sci. Total Environ., 714, 136762, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136762, 2020.
Scavia, D., David Allan, J., Arend, K. K., Bartell, S., Beletsky, D., Bosch, N. S., Brandt, S. B., Briland, R. D., Daloğlu, I., DePinto, J. V., Dolan, D. M., Evans, M. A., Farmer, T. M., Goto, D., Han, H., Höök, T. O., Knight, R., Ludsin, S. A., Mason, D., Michalak, A. M., Peter Richards, R., Roberts, J. J., Rucinski, D. K., Rutherford, E., Schwab, D. J., Sesterhenn, T. M., Zhang, H., and Zhou, Y.: Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Central basin hypoxia, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 226–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.02.004, 2014.
Scavia, D., DePinto, J. V., and Bertani, I.: A multi-model approach to
evaluating target phosphorus loads for Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 42,
1139–1150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.09.007, 2016.
Schertzer, W. M., Saylor, J. H., Boyce, F. M., Robertson, D. G., and Rosa,
F.: Seasonal Thermal Cycle of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res.,
13, 468–486, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(87)71667-0, 1987.
Schwab, D. J. and Beletsky, D.: Propagation of kelvin waves along irregular
coastlines in finite-difference models, Adv. Water Resour., 22, 239–245,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00015-3, 1998.
Schwab, D. J., Leshkevich, G. A., and Muhr, G. C.: Automated Mapping of
Surface Water Temperature in the Great Lakes, J. Great Lakes Res., 25,
468–481, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(99)70755-0, 1999.
Trebitz, A. S.: Characterizing seiche and tide-driven daily water level
fluctuations affecting coastal ecosystems of the Great Lakes, J. Great Lakes
Res., 32, 102–116, https://doi.org/10.3394/0380-1330(2006)32[102:CSATDW]2.0.CO;2, 2006.
Valipour, R., Bouffard, D., Boegman, L., and Rao, Y. R.: Near-inertial waves
in Lake Erie, Limnol. Oceanogr., 60, 1522–1535, https://doi.org/10.1021/es301422r, 2015.
Valipour, R., Rao, Y. R., León, L. F., and Depew, D.: Nearshore-offshore
exchanges in multi-basin coastal waters: Observations and three-dimensional
modeling in Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 45, 50–60,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2018.10.005, 2019.
Wang, Q., and Boegman, L.: Multi-Year Simulation of Western Lake Erie Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemistry to Evaluate Nutrient Management Scenarios, Sustainability, 13, 7516, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147516, 2021.
Watson, S. B., Miller, C., Arhonditsis, G., Boyer, G. L., Carmichael, W., Charlton, M. N., Confesor, R., Depew, D. C., Höök, T. O., Ludsin, S. A., Matisoff, G., McElmurry, S. P., Murray, M. W., Peter Richards, R., Rao, Y. R., Steffen, M. M., and Wilhelm, S. W.: The re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Harmful algal blooms and hypoxia, Harmful Algae, 56, 44–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2016.04.010, 2016.
Woolway, R. I. and Merchant, C. J.: Worldwide alteration of lake mixing
regimes in response to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 12, 271–276,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x, 2019.
Woolway, R. I., Kraemer, B. M., Lenters, J. D., Merchant, C. J., O’Reilly, C. M., and Sharma, S.: Global lake responses to climate change, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 388–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5, 2020.
Short summary
An operational hydrodynamics forecast system, COASTLINES, using the Windows Task Scheduler, Python, and MATLAB scripts, to automate application of a 3-D model (AEM3D) in Lake Erie was developed. The system predicted storm-surge and up-/downwelling events that are important for flood water and drinking water/fishery management. This example of the successful development of an operational forecast system can be adapted to simulate aquatic systems as required for management and public safety.
An operational hydrodynamics forecast system, COASTLINES, using the Windows Task Scheduler,...