Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5583–5605, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5583–5605, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5583-2021

Development and technical paper 10 Sep 2021

Development and technical paper | 10 Sep 2021

Efficient ensemble generation for uncertain correlated parameters in atmospheric chemical models: a case study for biogenic emissions from EURAD-IM version 5

Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern

Related authors

Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012
Annika Vogel and Hendrik Elbern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4039–4057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Analyzing trace gas filaments in the Ex-UTLS by 4D-variational assimilation of airborne tomographic retrievals
Annika Vogel, Jörn Ungermann, and Hendrik Elbern
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-308,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-308, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric sciences
Incorporation of volcanic SO2 emissions in the Hemispheric CMAQ (H-CMAQ) version 5.2 modeling system and assessing their impacts on sulfate aerosol over the Northern Hemisphere
Syuichi Itahashi, Rohit Mathur, Christian Hogrefe, Sergey L. Napelenok, and Yang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5751–5768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Position correction in dust storm forecasting using LOTOS-EUROS v2.1: grid-distorted data assimilation v1.0
Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Hai Xiang Lin, Bas Henzing, Xiaohui Wang, Arnold Heemink, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5607–5622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5607-2021, 2021
Short summary
Atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation
Timofei Sukhodolov, Tatiana Egorova, Andrea Stenke, William T. Ball, Christina Brodowsky, Gabriel Chiodo, Aryeh Feinberg, Marina Friedel, Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Thomas Peter, Jan Sedlacek, Sandro Vattioni, and Eugene Rozanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5525–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5525-2021, 2021
Short summary
Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a versatile emissions component for atmospheric models: application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS models
Haipeng Lin, Daniel J. Jacob, Elizabeth W. Lundgren, Melissa P. Sulprizio, Christoph A. Keller, Thibaud M. Fritz, Sebastian D. Eastham, Louisa K. Emmons, Patrick C. Campbell, Barry Baker, Rick D. Saylor, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5487–5506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5487-2021, 2021
Short summary
Mesoscale nesting interface of the PALM model system 6.0
Eckhard Kadasch, Matthias Sühring, Tobias Gronemeier, and Siegfried Raasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5435–5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5435-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Auger, L. and Tangborn, A.: A wavelet-based reduced rank Kalman filter for assimilation of stratospheric chemical tracer observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1220–1237, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1220:AWRRKF>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015. a
Bocquet, M., Elbern, H., Eskes, H., Hirtl, M., Žabkar, R., Carmichael, G. R., Flemming, J., Inness, A., Pagowski, M., Pérez Camaño, J. L., Saide, P. E., San Jose, R., Sofiev, M., Vira, J., Baklanov, A., Carnevale, C., Grell, G., and Seigneur, C.: Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015. a
Boynard, A., Beekmann, M., Foret, G., Ung, A., Szopa, S., Schmechtig, C., and Coman, A.: An ensemble assessment of regional ozone model uncertainty with an explicit error representation, Atmos. Environ., 45, 784–793, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.08.006, 2011. a
Buizza, R.: Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3370, 2019. a
Download
Short summary
While atmospheric chemical forecasts rely on uncertain model parameters, their huge dimensions hamper an efficient uncertainty estimation. This study presents a novel approach to efficiently sample these uncertainties by extracting dominant dependencies and correlations. Applying the algorithm to biogenic emissions, their uncertainties can be estimated from a low number of dominant components. This states the capability of an efficient treatment of parameter uncertainties in atmospheric models.