Articles | Volume 14, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
30 Jul 2021
Model description paper |
| 30 Jul 2021
| 30 Jul 2021
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Alexey N. Shiklomanov
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Ben Kravitz
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Corinne Hartin
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Ben Bond-Lamberty
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.
Lantao Sun, James W. Hurrell, Kristen L. Rasmussen, Bali Summers, Erin A. Sherman, and Ben Kravitz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3490, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a novel framework using the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess how stratospheric aerosol injection, a solar climate intervention strategy, affects future convective weather over the contiguous U.S. Results demonstrate the feasibility and scientific potential of this approach for evaluating weather-scale impacts and suggest that such intervention may mitigate changes in temperature, precipitation, and convective activity due to warming.
Jared Farley, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Ewa Bednarz, Alistair Duffey, and Matthew Henry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1830, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As the climate changes, many are studying sunlight reflection as a potential method of cooling. Such climate intervention could be deployed in many possible ways, including in scenarios where not every actor agrees on the strategy of cooling. These scenarios are so diverse that to explore all of them using earth system models proves to be too costly. In this paper, we develop a simplified climate model that allows users to easily explore climate intervention scenarios of their choice.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 191–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Injecting SO2 into the lower stratosphere can temporarily reduce global mean temperature and mitigate some risks associated with climate change, but injecting it at different latitudes and seasons would have different impacts. This study introduces new stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and explores the importance of the choice of SAI strategy, demonstrating that it notably affects the distribution of aerosol cloud, injection efficiency, and various surface climate impacts.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amy H. Butler, Daniele Visioni, Yan Zhang, Ben Kravitz, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13665–13684, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art Earth system model and a set of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies to achieve the same level of global mean surface cooling through different combinations of location and/or timing of the injection. We demonstrate that the choice of SAI strategy can lead to contrasting impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures, circulation, and chemistry (including stratospheric ozone), thereby leading to different impacts on regional surface climate.
Corinne Hartin, Erin E. McDuffie, Karen Noiva, Marcus Sarofim, Bryan Parthum, Jeremy Martinich, Sarah Barr, Jim Neumann, Jacqueline Willwerth, and Allen Fawcett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes a reduced-complexity model, Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to assess the impacts from climate change in the United States across 10 000 future probabilistic emission and socioeconomic projections. Climate-driven damages are largest for the health category, with the majority of damages in this category coming from the valuation estimates of premature mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in extreme temperature and air quality scenarios.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5757–5773, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5757-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbonyl sulfide is a gas that mixes very well in the atmosphere and can reach the stratosphere, where it reacts with sunlight and produces aerosol. Here we propose that, by increasing surface fluxes by an order of magnitude, the number of stratospheric aerosols produced may be enough to partially offset the warming produced by greenhouse gases. We explore what effect this would have on the atmospheric composition.
Huiying Ren, Erol Cromwell, Ben Kravitz, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1727-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a deep learning method called long short-term memory (LSTM) to fill gaps in data collected by hydrologic monitoring networks. LSTM accounted for correlations in space and time and nonlinear trends in data. Compared to a traditional regression-based time-series method, LSTM performed comparably when filling gaps in data with smooth patterns, while it better captured highly dynamic patterns in data. Capturing such dynamics is critical for understanding dynamic complex system behaviors.
Dong-Gill Kim, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Youngryel Ryu, Bumsuk Seo, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences, 19, 1435–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) research has adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A), low-cost instruments, open-source software, and participatory research and their results were well accepted by scientific communities. In terms of cost, feasibility, and performance, the integration of low-cost and low-technology, participatory and networking-based research approaches can be AT&A for enhancing C and GHG research in developing countries.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Juying Jiao, Xiaohua Ren, Karl Auerswald, Ryan Stewart, Zeli Tan, Jianlin Zhao, Daniel L. Evans, Guangju Zhao, Nufang Fang, Wenyi Sun, Chao Yue, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-87, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss and sediment yield due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a database named AWESOME: Archive for Water Erosion and Sediment Outflow MEasurements. Annual soil erosion data from 1985 geographic sites and 75 countries have been compiled into AWESOME. This database aims to be an open framework for the scientific community to share field-based annual soil erosion measurements, enabling better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of annual soil erosion.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Eva Sinha, Kate Calvin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Beth Drewniak, Dan Ricciuto, Khachik Sargsyan, Yanyan Cheng, Carl Bernacchi, and Caitlin Moore
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-244, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Perennial bioenergy crops are not well represented in global land models, despite projected increase in their production. Our study expands Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to include perennial bioenergy crops and calibrates the model for miscanthus and switchgrass. The calibrated model captures the seasonality and magnitude of carbon and energy fluxes. This study provides the foundation for future research examining the impact of perennial bioenergy crop expansion.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, and George Haller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8845–8861, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There exist robust and influential material features evolving within turbulent fluids that behave as the skeleton for fluid transport pathways. Recent developments in applied mathematics have made the identification of these time-varying structures more rigorous and insightful than ever. Using short-range wind forecasts, we detail how and why these material features can be exploited in an effort to optimize the spread of aerosols in the stratosphere for climate geoengineering.
Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Michael C. Dietze, Istem Fer, Toni Viskari, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2603–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2603-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Airborne and satellite images are a great resource for calibrating and evaluating computer models of ecosystems. Typically, researchers derive ecosystem properties from these images and then compare models against these derived properties. Here, we present an alternative approach where we modify a model to predict what the satellite would see more directly. We then show how this approach can be used to calibrate model parameters using airborne data from forest sites in the northeastern US.
Dong-Gill Kim, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Youngryel Ryu, Bumsuk Seo, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-85, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
While greenhouse gas (GHG) research has adopted highly advanced technology some have adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A) such as low-cost instrument, open source software and participatory research and their results were well accepted by scientific communities. In terms of cost, feasibility and performance, integration of low-cost and low-technology, participatory and networking based research approaches can be AT&A for enhancing GHG research in developing countries.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Jeff W. Atkins, Elizabeth Agee, Alexandra Barry, Kyla M. Dahlin, Kalyn Dorheim, Maxim S. Grigri, Lisa T. Haber, Laura J. Hickey, Aaron G. Kamoske, Kayla Mathes, Catherine McGuigan, Evan Paris, Stephanie C. Pennington, Carly Rodriguez, Autym Shafer, Alexey Shiklomanov, Jason Tallant, Christopher M. Gough, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 943–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. The data included help to interpret how carbon cycling processes respond over time to disturbance.
Jinshi Jian, Rodrigo Vargas, Kristina Anderson-Teixeira, Emma Stell, Valentine Herrmann, Mercedes Horn, Nazar Kholod, Jason Manzon, Rebecca Marchesi, Darlin Paredes, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux (soil respiration, Rs) observations were compiled into a global database (SRDB) a decade ago. Here, we restructured and updated the database to the fifth version, SRDB-V5, with data published through 2017 included. SRDB-V5 aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share seasonal to annual field Rs measurements, and it provides opportunities for the scientific community to better understand the spatial and temporal variability of Rs.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Kalyn Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simple climate models are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their tractability and low computational cost. Simple climate models are diverse, including highly idealized and process-based models. Here we present a hybrid approach that combines the strength of two types of simple climate models in a flexible framework. This hybrid approach has provided insights into the climate system and opens an avenue for investigating radiative forcing uncertainties.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Jinshi Jian, Xuan Du, Ryan D. Stewart, Zeli Tan, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-283, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Field soil loss due to surface runoff observations were compiled into a global database (SoilErosionDB). The database focuses on three erosion-related metrics – surface runoff, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching – and also records background information. Data from 99 geographic sites and 22 countries around the world have been compiled into SoilErosionDB. SoilErosionDB aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share field-based soil erosion measurements.
Cited articles
Andresen, C. G., Lawrence, D. M., Wilson, C. J., McGuire, A. D., Koven, C., Schaefer, K., Jafarov, E., Peng, S., Chen, X., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E., Chadburn, S., Ji, D., Chen, G., Hayes, D., and Zhang, W.: Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison, The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020. a
Anthony, K. W., von Deimling, T. S., Nitze, I., Frolking, S., Emond, A.,
Daanen, R., Anthony, P., Lindgren, P., Jones, B., and Grosse, G.:
21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw
beneath lakes, Nat. Commun., 9, 3262, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9, 2018. a, b, c
Arango-Aramburo, S., Turner, S. W., Daenzer, K., Ríos-Ocampo, J. P.,
Hejazi, M. I., Kober, T., Álvarez-Espinosa, A. C., Romero-Otalora, G. D.,
and van der Zwaan, B.: Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A
multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways, Energ. Policy,
128, 179–188, 2019. a
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J. P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M. and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat.
Commun., 10, 264, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019. a
Bond-Lamberty, B., Smith, A. P., and Bailey, V.: Temperature and moisture effects on greenhouse gas emissions from deep active-layer boreal soils, Biogeosciences, 13, 6669–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6669-2016, 2016. a
Burke, E. J., Hartley, I. P., and Jones, C. D.: Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing, The Cryosphere, 6, 1063–1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1063-2012, 2012. a, b
Burke, E. J., Jones, C. D., and Koven, C. D.: Estimating the permafrost-carbon climate response in the CMIP5 climate models using a simplified approach, J. Climate, 26, 4897–4909, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00550.1, 2013. a, b
Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P., and Friedlingstein, P.: An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015. a
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Cox, P. M., Friedlingstein, P., Hugelius, G.,
and Westermann, S.: An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a
function of global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 340–344,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262, 2017. a, b, c
Chen, Y., Liu, A., Zhang, Z., Hope, C., and Crabbe, M. J. C.: Economic losses
of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP
scenarios, Sci. Total Environ., 658, 1064–1068,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299, 2019. a
Clarke, L., Eom, J., Marten, E. H., Horowitz, R., Kyle, P., Link, R., Mignone, B. K., Mundra, A., and Zhou, Y.: Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures, Energ. Econ., 72, 667–677,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003, 2018. a
Crichton, K. A., Bouttes, N., Roche, D. M., Chappellaz, J., and Krinner, G.:
Permafrost carbon as a missing link to explain CO2 changes during the
last deglaciation, Nat. Geosci., 9, 683–686, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2793,
2016. a, b
Elberling, B., Michelsen, A., Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A. G., Christiansen, H. H., Berg, L., Tamstorf, M. P., and Sigsgaard, C.: Long-term CO2 production following permafrost thaw, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 890–894, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1955, 2013. a
Frost, G. V. and Epstein, H. E.: Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian
tundra ecotones since the 1960s, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 1264–1277,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12406, 2014. a
Gruber, S.: Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation, The Cryosphere, 6, 221–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-221-2012, 2012. a
Hartin, C. A., Bond-Lamberty, B., Patel, P., and Mundra, A.: Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities, Biogeosciences, 13, 4329–4342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4329-2016, 2016. a, b
Hope, C. and Schaefer, K.: Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane
released from thawing permafrost, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 56–59,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2807, 2015. a
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G., Ping, C.-L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag, J., and Kuhry, P.: Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps, Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Hugelius, G., Loisel, J., Chadburn, S., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M., MacDonald, G., Marushchak, M., Olefeldt, D., Packalen, M., Siewert, M. B., Treat, C., Turetsky, M., Voigt, C., and Yu, Z.: Large
stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 20438–20446, 2020. a
Kirschke, S., Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Saunois, M., Canadell, J. G.,
Dlugokencky, E. J., Bergamaschi, P., Bergmann, D., Blake, D. R., Bruhwiler,
L., Cameron-Smith, P., Castaldi, S., Chevallier, F., Feng, L., Fraser, A., Heimann, M., Hodson, E. L., Houweling, S., Josse, B., Fraser, P. J., Krummel, P. B., Lamarque, J.-F., Langenfelds, R. L., Le Quéré, C., Naik, V., O'Doherty, S., Palmer, P. I., Pison, I., Plummer, D., Poulter, B.. Prinn, R. G., Rigby, M., Ringeval, B., Santini, M., Schmidt, M., Shindell, D. T., Simpson, I. J., Spahni, R., Steele, L. P., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., van Weele, M., Weiss, R. F., Williams, J. E., and Zeng, G.: Three decades of global methane sources and sinks, Nat.
Geosci., 6, 813–823, 2013. a
Knoblauch, C., Beer, C., Liebner, S., Grigoriev, M. N., and Pfeiffer, E.-M.:
Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost,
Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 309–312, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0095-z, 2018. a
Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P.,
Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., and Tarnocai, C.: Permafrost carbon-climate
feedbacks accelerate global warming, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 108, 14769–14774, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108, 2011. a
Koven, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., and Riley, W. J.: Permafrost carbon-climate
feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil
nitrogen dynamics, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3752–3757, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112, 2015a. a, b, c
Koven, C. D., Schuur, E. A. G., Schädel, C., Bohn, T. J., Burke, E. J.,
Chen, G., Chen, X., Ciais, P., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E. E., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S. S., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., Nicolsky, D. J., Olefeldt, D., Peng, S., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K. M., Strauss, J., Treat, C. C., and Turetsky, M.: A
simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost
carbon-climate feedback, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140423,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423, 2015b. a, b, c, d, e
Kuhry, P., Bárta, J., Blok, D., Elberling, B., Faucherre, S., Hugelius, G., Jørgensen, C. J., Richter, A., Šantrůčková, H., and Weiss, N.: Lability classification of soil organic matter in the northern permafrost region, Biogeosciences, 17, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-361-2020, 2020. a
Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., and Swenson, S. C.: Simulation of present-day
and future permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions in CCSM4,
J. Climate, 25, 2207–2225, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00334.1, 2012. a
Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C. D., Swenson, S. C., Riley, W. J., and Slater, A.:
Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected
high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett.,
10, 094011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011, 2015. a
LeBauer, D. S., Wang, D., Richter, K. T., Davidson, C. C., and Dietze, M. C.:
Facilitating feedbacks between field measurements and ecosystem models,
Ecol. Monogr., 83, 133–154, https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0137.1, 2013. a, b
Li, F., Peng, Y., Natali, S. M., Chen, K., Han, T., Yang, G., Ding, J., Zhang, D., Wang, G., Wang, J., and Yu, J.: Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem
carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients, Ecology, 98, 2851–2859, 2017. a
Link, R., Shiklomanov, A., Bond-Lamberty, B., Hartin, C., bvegawe, Patel, P., Willner, S., Dorheim, K. R., Smith, S., Gieseke, R., and Lynch, C.: dawnlwoodard/hector_pf: Hector Permafrost Implementation (Version v2.3pf), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4876800, 2021. a
MacDougall, A. H. and Knutti, R.: Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach, Biogeosciences, 13, 2123–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016, 2016. a, b, c
MacDougall, A. H., Avis, C. A., and Weaver, A. J.: Significant contribution to climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback, Nat. Geosci., 5,
719–721, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1573, 2012. a, b, c, d
MacDougall, A. H., Eby, M., and Weaver, A. J.: If anthropogenic CO2
emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase?,
J. Climate, 26, 9563–9576, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00751.1, 2013. a
Matveev, A., Laurion, I., Deshpande, B. N., Bhiry, N., and Vincent, W. F.: High methane emissions from thermokarst lakes in subarctic peatlands, Limnol. Oceanogr., 61, S150–S164, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10311, 2016. a
McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen, G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Ciais, P., Gouttevin, I., Hayes, D. J., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Moore, J. C., and Romanovsky, V.:
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost
region on the trajectory of climate change, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 3882–3887, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115, 2018. a, b, c, d
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011. a, b
Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M. M. C., and Ottersen, G.: Polar Regions, chap. 3, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 2019. a, b
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K.,
Van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Meehl, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.:
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment,
Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010. a
Pithan, F. and Mauritsen, T.: Arctic amplification dominated by temperature
feedbacks in contemporary climate models, Nat. Geosci., 7, 181–184,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071, 2014. a
Romanovsky, V. E., Smith, S. L., and Christiansen, H. H.: Permafrost thermal
state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar
year 2007–2009: a synthesis, Permafrost Periglac., 21,
106–116, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.689, 2010. a
Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A. G., Bracho, R., Elberling, B., Knoblauch, C.,
Lee, H., Luo, Y., Shaver, G. R., and Turetsky, M. R.: Circumpolar assessment
of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term
incubation data, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 641–652,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12417, 2014. a, b, c, d, e
Schädel, C., Bader, M. K.-F., Schuur, E. A., Biasi, C., Bracho, R.,
Čapek, P., De Baets, S., Diáková, K., Ernakovich, J.,
Estop-Aragones, C., and Graham, D. E.: Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon
dioxide from thawed permafrost soils, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 950–953,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054, 2016. a, b, c, d
Schaefer, K., Lantuit, H., Romanovsky, V. E., Schuur, E. A. G., and Witt, R.:
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate, Environ.
Res. Lett., 9, 85003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003, 2014. a
Schneider von Deimling, T., Grosse, G., Strauss, J., Schirrmeister, L., Morgenstern, A., Schaphoff, S., Meinshausen, M., and Boike, J.: Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity, Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015. a, b
Schuur, E., McGuire, A., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., and Mack, M.: Arctic and boreal carbon, chap. 11, in: Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A sustained assessment report, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, D.C., USA, 428–468, 2018. a
Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. W., Bowden, W. B., Brovkin, V., Camill, P., Canadell, J. G., Chanton, J. P., Chapin, F. S., Christensen, T. R., Ciais, P., Crosby, B. T., Czimczik, C. I., Grosse, G., Harden, J., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Jastrow, J. D., Jones, J. B., Kleinen, T., Koven, C. D., Krinner, G., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., McGuire, A. D., Natali, S. M., O’Donnell, J. A., Ping, C. L., Riley, W. J., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V. E., Sannel, A. B. K., Schädel, C., Schaefer, K., Sky, J., Subin, Z. M., Tarnocai, C., Turetsky, M. R., Waldrop, M. P., Walter Anthony, K. M., Wickland, K. P., Wilson, C. J., and Zimov, S. A.: Expert
assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change, Clim.
Change, 119, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7, 2013. a, b, c, d
Shur, Y. L. and Jorgenson, M.: Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems, Permafrost Periglac.,
18, 7–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.582, 2007. a
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung,
J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.: Climate change
2013: The physical science basis, Contribution of working group I to the
fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
1535 pp., 2013. a, b, c
Treat, C. C., Wollheim, W. M., Varner, R. K., Grandy, A. S., Talbot, J., and
Frolking, S.: Temperature and peat type control CO2 and CH4 production
in Alaskan permafrost peats, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 2674–2686,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12572, 2014. a
Turetsky, M. R., Wieder, R., and Vitt, D. H.: Boreal peatland C fluxes under varying permafrost regimes, Soil Biol. Biochem., 34, 907–912,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0038-0717(02)00022-6, 2002.
a
Turetsky, M. R., Abbott, B. W., Jones, M. C., Anthony, K. W., Olefeldt, D., Schuur, E. A., Grosse, G., Kuhry, P., Hugelius, G., Koven, C., and Lawrence, D. M.: Carbon
release through abrupt permafrost thaw, Nat. Geosci., 13, 138–143,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0, 2020. a, b, c
Vega-Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C. A., Wong, T. E., and Keller, K.:
Impacts of observational constraints related to sea level on estimates of
climate sensitivity, Earth's Future, 7, 677–690, 2019. a
Vonk, J. E., Tank, S. E., Bowden, W. B., Laurion, I., Vincent, W. F., Alekseychik, P., Amyot, M., Billet, M. F., Canário, J., Cory, R. M., Deshpande, B. N., Helbig, M., Jammet, M., Karlsson, J., Larouche, J., MacMillan, G., Rautio, M., Walter Anthony, K. M., and Wickland, K. P.: Reviews and syntheses: Effects of permafrost thaw on Arctic aquatic ecosystems, Biogeosciences, 12, 7129–7167, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7129-2015, 2015. a
Wickland, K. P., Striegl, R. G., Neff, J. C., and Sachs, T.: Effects of
permafrost melting on CO2 and CH4 exchange of a poorly drained
black spruce lowland, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 111,
G02011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jg000099, 2006. a
Woodard, D.: dawnlwoodard/hector-permafrost-analysis: Permafrost Paper Code With CMIP6 Processing (Version v1.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4952065, 2021. a, b
Yumashev, D., Hope, C., Schaefer, K., Riemann-Campe, K., Iglesias-Suarez, F.,
Jafarov, E., Burke, E. J., Young, P. J., Elshorbany, Y., and Whiteman, G.:
Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost
and other cryosphere elements, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x, 2019. a
Yvon-Durocher, G., Allen, A. P., Bastviken, D., Conrad, R., Gudasz, C.,
St-Pierre, A., Thanh-Duc, N., and Del Giorgio, P. A.: Methane fluxes show
consistent temperature dependence across microbial to ecosystem scales,
Nature, 507, 488–491, 2014. a
Short summary
We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector and calibrated the results to be consistent with historical data and Earth system model projections. Our results closely match previous work, estimating around 0.2 °C of warming from permafrost this century. This capability will be useful to explore uncertainties in this feedback and for coupling with integrated assessment models for policy and economic analysis.
We have added a representation of the permafrost carbon feedback to the simple, open-source...
