Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2205-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2205-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A new Lagrangian in-time particle simulation module (Itpas v1) for atmospheric particle dispersion
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Ralf Wolke
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Steffen Münch
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Roger Funk
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Kerstin Schepanski
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
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Sofía Gómez Maqueo Anaya, Dietrich Althausen, Julian Hofer, Moritz Haarig, Ulla Wandinger, Bernd Heinold, Ina Tegen, Matthias Faust, Holger Baars, Albert Ansmann, Ronny Engelmann, Annett Skupin, Birgit Heese, and Kerstin Schepanski
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4265–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, 2024
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Sofía Gómez Maqueo Anaya, Dietrich Althausen, Matthias Faust, Holger Baars, Bernd Heinold, Julian Hofer, Ina Tegen, Albert Ansmann, Ronny Engelmann, Annett Skupin, Birgit Heese, and Kerstin Schepanski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1271–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, 2024
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Mineral dust aerosol particles vary greatly in their composition depending on source region, which leads to different physicochemical properties. Most atmosphere–aerosol models consider mineral dust aerosols to be compositionally homogeneous, which ultimately increases model uncertainty. Here, we present an approach to explicitly consider the heterogeneity of the mineralogical composition for simulations of the Saharan atmospheric dust cycle with regard to dust transport towards the Atlantic.
Bernd Heinold, Holger Baars, Boris Barja, Matthew Christensen, Anne Kubin, Kevin Ohneiser, Kerstin Schepanski, Nick Schutgens, Fabian Senf, Roland Schrödner, Diego Villanueva, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9969–9985, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9969-2022, 2022
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Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-423, 2022
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Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
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Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Stefano Galmarini, Paul Makar, Olivia E. Clifton, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Tim Butler, Jason Ducker, Johannes Flemming, Alma Hodzic, Christopher D. Holmes, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam Silva, and Ralf Wolke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15663–15697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, 2021
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Sophie Vandenbussche, Sieglinde Callewaert, Kerstin Schepanski, and Martine De Mazière
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Isabelle Steinke, Naruki Hiranuma, Roger Funk, Kristina Höhler, Nadine Tüllmann, Nsikanabasi Silas Umo, Peter G. Weidler, Ottmar Möhler, and Thomas Leisner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11387–11397, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11387-2020, 2020
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In this study, we highlight the potential impact of particles from certain terrestrial sources on the formation of ice crystals in clouds. In particular, we focus on biogenic particles consisting of various organic compounds, which makes it very difficult to predict the ice nucleation properties of complex ambient particles. We find that these ambient particles are often more ice active than individual components.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10351–10377, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10351-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10351-2020, 2020
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In the present study, simulations with the SPACCIM-SpactMod multiphase chemistry model are performed. The investigations aim at assessing the impact of a detailed treatment of non-ideality in multiphase models dealing with aqueous aerosol chemistry. The model studies demonstrate that the inclusion of non-ideality considerably affects the multiphase chemical processing of transition metal ions, oxidants, and related chemical subsystems such as organic chemistry in aqueous aerosols.
Erik H. Hoffmann, Roland Schrödner, Andreas Tilgner, Ralf Wolke, and Hartmut Herrmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2587–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2587-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2587-2020, 2020
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A condensed multiphase halogen and DMS chemistry mechanism for application in chemical transport models has been developed and applied by 2D simulations to explore multiphase marine chemistry above the pristine open ocean. The model simulations have demonstrated the ability of the mechanism in studying aerosol cloud processing effects in the marine atmosphere. First 2D simulations have shown significant differences in the DMS processing under convective and stratiform cloud conditions.
Ying Chen, Yafang Cheng, Nan Ma, Chao Wei, Liang Ran, Ralf Wolke, Johannes Größ, Qiaoqiao Wang, Andrea Pozzer, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Gerald Spindler, Jos Lelieveld, Ina Tegen, Hang Su, and Alfred Wiedensohler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 771–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-771-2020, 2020
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Particulate nitrate is one of the most important climate cooling agents. Our results show that interaction with sea-salt aerosol can shift nitrate to larger sized particles (redistribution effect), weakening its direct cooling effect. The modelling results indicate strong redistribution over coastal and offshore regions worldwide as well as continental Europe. Improving the consideration of the redistribution effect in global models fosters a better understanding of climate change.
Peter Bräuer, Camille Mouchel-Vallon, Andreas Tilgner, Anke Mutzel, Olaf Böge, Maria Rodigast, Laurent Poulain, Dominik van Pinxteren, Ralf Wolke, Bernard Aumont, and Hartmut Herrmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9209–9239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9209-2019, 2019
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The article presents a new protocol for computer-assisted automated aqueous-phase chemistry mechanism generation, which has been validated against chamber experiments. Together with a large kinetics database and improved prediction methods for kinetic data, the novel protocol provides an unmatched tool for detailed studies of tropospheric aqueous-phase chemistry in complex model studies and for the design and analysis of chamber experiments.
Jamie R. Banks, Anja Hünerbein, Bernd Heinold, Helen E. Brindley, Hartwig Deneke, and Kerstin Schepanski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6893–6911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6893-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6893-2019, 2019
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Saharan dust storms may be observed over the desert using false-colour infrared satellite imagery; in one widely used scheme dust displays characteristic pink colours. Simulating satellite imagery using a dust transport model, we confirm that water vapour is a major control on the apparent colour of dust in the false-colour imagery and that dust displays its deepest colours when it is at a high altitude and when the atmosphere is dry. Water vapour can obscure the presence of low-altitude dust.
Robert Wagner, Michael Jähn, and Kerstin Schepanski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11863–11884, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11863-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11863-2018, 2018
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Wildfires can disturb the lower tropospheric wind conditions and are able to mobilize and inject mineral dust particles into the atmosphere. This study presents a conceptual model of fire-driven dust emissions using large-eddy simulations and evaluates how efficiently wildfires are able to modify the near-surface winds. The results show that typical threshold velocities necessary for dust emission are frequently exceeded and wildfires should be considered a source of airborne mineral dust.
Jamie R. Banks, Kerstin Schepanski, Bernd Heinold, Anja Hünerbein, and Helen E. Brindley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9681–9703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9681-2018, 2018
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Satellite observations are used to visualize dust storms over the Sahara, and specific infrared channel combinations can highlight dust with distinctive pink colours. Using output from a dust-atmosphere model to simulate satellite imagery, we explore the consequences of particle size, shape, and refractive index for the colour of dust in the imagery. Particles with a radius of ~ 1.5 microns perturb the colour the most and an assumption of spherical dust appears to be insufficient.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, José María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth, and it is therefore mandatory to have an accurate representation of their optical properties for understanding their climatic role. This work therefore evaluates the skill in the representation of optical properties by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry–climate models over Europe.
Ying Chen, Ralf Wolke, Liang Ran, Wolfram Birmili, Gerald Spindler, Wolfram Schröder, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Ina Tegen, and Alfred Wiedensohler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 673–689, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-673-2018, 2018
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The heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 on particle surfaces is crucial for the nitrogen cycle in the atmosphere. The reaction rate is determined by meteorological and particle properties, but its parameterization in previous 3-D modelling studies did not comprehensively consider these parameters. We propose a parameterization to take these into account and improve nitrate prediction; we report that the organic coating suppression on the N2O5 reaction is not as important as expected in the EU.
Kathrin Gatzsche, Yoshiteru Iinuma, Andreas Tilgner, Anke Mutzel, Torsten Berndt, and Ralf Wolke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13187–13211, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13187-2017, 2017
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Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) represents an important fraction of the particulate matter and, thus, an advanced treatment of SOA processes in models is necessary. Therefore, this investigation aims at sensitivity studies of a kinetic description of SOA formation. The results reveal that the particle-phase state and the reactivity of the organic solutes are key parameters in the SOA formation. Overall, the results show that an advanced kinetic treatment enables improved model predictions.
Kerstin Schepanski, Bernd Heinold, and Ina Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10223–10243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10223-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10223-2017, 2017
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This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes stimulating the North African dust outflow: harmattan, Saharan heat low, and monsoon circulation. We analyse fields from model simulations and satellite observations in concert in order to link atmospheric circulation and dust source activation as well as to characterize their impact on the variability of the dust outflow towards the Atlantic.
Rocío Baró, Laura Palacios-Peña, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9677–9696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, 2017
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The influence on modeled max., mean and min. temperature over Europe of including aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions has been assessed for two case studies in 2010. Data were taken from an ensemble of online regional chemistry–climate models from EuMetChem COST Action. The results indicate that including these interactions clearly improves the spatiotemporal variability in the temperature signal simulated by the models, with implications for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections.
Sudhakar Dipu, Johannes Quaas, Ralf Wolke, Jens Stoll, Andreas Mühlbauer, Odran Sourdeval, Marc Salzmann, Bernd Heinold, and Ina Tegen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2231–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2231-2017, 2017
Jamie R. Banks, Helen E. Brindley, Georgiy Stenchikov, and Kerstin Schepanski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3987–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3987-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3987-2017, 2017
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From an 11-year analysis of satellite measurements of atmospheric dust presence over the Red Sea, it is clear that there is a strong north–south gradient in dust activity and a pronounced interannual variability in this activity. Analysing two commonly used satellite retrieval methods to quantify dust presence, we find that under the most extreme dust storm conditions the measured dust optical thicknesses can diverge strongly between the two methods.
Kerstin Schepanski, Marc Mallet, Bernd Heinold, and Max Ulrich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14147–14168, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14147-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14147-2016, 2016
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EOF analysis is used to link the north African atmospheric dust cycle, particularly active dust source regions, dust emission fluxes, dust transport pathways towards the Mediterranean Sea and Europe as well as dust deposition rates with atmospheric circulation regimes, such as position and strength of the subtropical ridge and the Saharan heat low.
Ying Chen, Yafang Cheng, Nan Ma, Ralf Wolke, Stephan Nordmann, Stephanie Schüttauf, Liang Ran, Birgit Wehner, Wolfram Birmili, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Qing Mu, Stefan Barthel, Gerald Spindler, Bastian Stieger, Konrad Müller, Guang-Jie Zheng, Ulrich Pöschl, Hang Su, and Alfred Wiedensohler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12081–12097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12081-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12081-2016, 2016
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Sea salt aerosol (SSA) is important for primary and secondary aerosols on a global scale. During 10–20 September 2013, the SSA mass concentration was overestimated by a factor of 8–20 over central Europe by WRF-Chem model, stem from the uncertainty of its emission scheme. This could facilitate the coarse-mode nitrate formation (~ 140 % but inhibit the fine-mode nitrate formation (~−20 %). A special long-range transport mechanism could broaden this influence of SSA to a larger downwind region.
María José Granados-Muñoz, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado, Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda, Ioannis Binietoglou, Sergio Nepomuceno Pereira, Sara Basart, José María Baldasano, Livio Belegante, Anatoli Chaikovsky, Adolfo Comerón, Giuseppe D'Amico, Oleg Dubovik, Luka Ilic, Panos Kokkalis, Constantino Muñoz-Porcar, Slobodan Nickovic, Doina Nicolae, Francisco José Olmo, Alexander Papayannis, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alejandro Rodríguez, Kerstin Schepanski, Michaël Sicard, Ana Vukovic, Ulla Wandinger, François Dulac, and Lucas Alados-Arboledas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7043–7066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7043-2016, 2016
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This study provides a detailed overview of the Mediterranean region regarding aerosol microphysical properties during the ChArMEx/EMEP campaign in July 2012. An in-depth analysis of the horizontal, vertical, and temporal dimensions is performed using LIRIC, proving the algorithm's ability in automated retrieval of microphysical property profiles within a network. A validation of four dust models is included, obtaining fair good agreement, especially for the vertical distribution of the aerosol.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Cyrille Flamant, Thibaut Dauhut, Cécile Kocha, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Chistophe Lavaysse, Fabien Marnas, Mohamed Mokhtari, Jacques Pelon, Irene Reinares Martínez, Kerstin Schepanski, and Pierre Tulet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6977–6995, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6977-2016, 2016
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The Fennec field campaign conducted in June 2011 led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer under the influence of the heat low. In addition to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara.
Bernd Heinold, Ina Tegen, Kerstin Schepanski, and Jamie R. Banks
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 765–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-765-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-765-2016, 2016
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In the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from MSG satellite are used to replace the current Saharan source map. The new setup provides more realistically distributed, up to 20 % higher annual Saharan emissions. Modeled dust AOT is partly improved in the Sahara-Sahel region, as is the spatial variability. As a comparison to sub-daily MSG DSAs and a regional model shows, the representation of meteorological drivers of dust uplift remains a critical issue.
Ying Chen, Ya-Fang Cheng, Stephan Nordmann, Wolfram Birmili, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Nan Ma, Ralf Wolke, Birgit Wehner, Jia Sun, Gerald Spindler, Qing Mu, Ulrich Pöschl, Hang Su, and Alfred Wiedensohler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1823–1835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1823-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1823-2016, 2016
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We evaluated the EC point sources in Germany with high-resolution simulation by WRF-Chem, and find out that point sources contribute too much EC in the coarse mode aerosol mass. The area emissions in Eastern Europe and Russia also allocate too much EC emission in coarse mode in the EUCAARI EC emission inventory. Because of the shorter life time of coarse mode EC, about 20–40 % less EC can be transported to Melpitz from Eastern Europe. Size segregation information is important for EC inventories.
A. J. Rusumdar, R. Wolke, A. Tilgner, and H. Herrmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 247–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-247-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-247-2016, 2016
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The present paper was aimed at the further development of SPACCIM to treat both complex multiphase chemistry and phase transfer processes considering new non-ideality properties of concentrated solutions. Model studies showed the applicability of the new kinetic model approach for complex aerosol mixtures and detailed chemical mechanisms. Simulations have implied that the treatment of non-ideality should be mandatory for modeling multiphase chemical processes in deliquesced particles.
M. Mallet, F. Dulac, P. Formenti, P. Nabat, J. Sciare, G. Roberts, J. Pelon, G. Ancellet, D. Tanré, F. Parol, C. Denjean, G. Brogniez, A. di Sarra, L. Alados-Arboledas, J. Arndt, F. Auriol, L. Blarel, T. Bourrianne, P. Chazette, S. Chevaillier, M. Claeys, B. D'Anna, Y. Derimian, K. Desboeufs, T. Di Iorio, J.-F. Doussin, P. Durand, A. Féron, E. Freney, C. Gaimoz, P. Goloub, J. L. Gómez-Amo, M. J. Granados-Muñoz, N. Grand, E. Hamonou, I. Jankowiak, M. Jeannot, J.-F. Léon, M. Maillé, S. Mailler, D. Meloni, L. Menut, G. Momboisse, J. Nicolas, T. Podvin, V. Pont, G. Rea, J.-B. Renard, L. Roblou, K. Schepanski, A. Schwarzenboeck, K. Sellegri, M. Sicard, F. Solmon, S. Somot, B Torres, J. Totems, S. Triquet, N. Verdier, C. Verwaerde, F. Waquet, J. Wenger, and P. Zapf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 455–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-455-2016, 2016
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The aim of this article is to present an experimental campaign over the Mediterranean focused on aerosol-radiation measurements and modeling. Results indicate an important atmospheric loading associated with a moderate absorbing ability of mineral dust. Observations suggest a complex vertical structure and size distributions characterized by large aerosols within dust plumes. The radiative effect is highly variable, with negative forcing over the Mediterranean and positive over northern Africa.
S. Groß, V. Freudenthaler, K. Schepanski, C. Toledano, A. Schäfler, A. Ansmann, and B. Weinzierl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11067–11080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11067-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11067-2015, 2015
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In June and July 2013 dual-wavelength lidar measurements were performed in Barbados to study long-range transported Saharan dust across the Atlantic Ocean and investigate transport-induced changes. The focus of our measurements is the intensive optical properties, the lidar ratio and the particle linear depolarization ratio. While the lidar ratio shows no differences compared to the values of fresh Saharan dust, the particle linear depolarization ratio shows slight differences.
S. Fiedler, K. Schepanski, P. Knippertz, B. Heinold, and I. Tegen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8983–9000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8983-2014, 2014
N. Niedermeier, A. Held, T. Müller, B. Heinold, K. Schepanski, I. Tegen, K. Kandler, M. Ebert, S. Weinbruch, K. Read, J. Lee, K. W. Fomba, K. Müller, H. Herrmann, and A. Wiedensohler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2245–2266, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2245-2014, 2014
S. Barthel, I. Tegen, R. Wolke, and M. van Pinxteren
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-377-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
I. Tegen, K. Schepanski, and B. Heinold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2381–2390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2381-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2381-2013, 2013
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Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
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Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
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To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
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Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre and sub-km scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
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Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
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This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique Adnan Siddiqui, Claudia Christine Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with upper atmosphere extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). The parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations were optimized, and realistic modelling of the thermal and dynamic state of the mesopause regions was achieved. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
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In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and Gyuwon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis such as the spectral bin model (SBM) recently has been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM have relatively higher accuracy about snow and wetsnow events whereas lower accuracy about rain event. When microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, accuracy about rain events was improved.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3321, 2024
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The effectiveness of assimilation system and its sensitivity to ensemble member size and length of assimilation window have been investigated. This study advances our understanding about the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimension local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate matter polluted environment.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
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The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-157, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study combines Machine Learning with Concentration-Weighted Trajectory Analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Lucie Bakels, Daria Tatsii, Anne Tipka, Rona Thompson, Marina Dütsch, Michael Blaschek, Petra Seibert, Katharina Baier, Silvia Bucci, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Stephan Henne, Pirmin Kaufmann, Vincent Lechner, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Ignacio Pisso, Andreas Plach, Rakesh Subramanian, Martin Vojta, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024
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Computer models are essential for improving our understanding of how gases and particles move in the atmosphere. We present an update of the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART. FLEXPART 11 is more accurate due to a reduced number of interpolations and a new scheme for wet deposition. It can simulate non-spherical aerosols and includes linear chemical reactions. It is parallelised using OpenMP and includes new user options. A new user manual details how to use FLEXPART 11.
Bjarke Tobias Eisensøe Olsen, Andrea Noemi Hahmann, Nicolás González Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3123, 2024
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere, important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely-used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Jaroslav Resler, Petra Bauerová, Michal Belda, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Vladimír Fuka, Jan Geletič, Radek Jareš, Jan Karel, Josef Keder, Pavel Krč, William Patiño, Jelena Radović, Hynek Řezníček, Matthias Sühring, Adriana Šindelářová, and Ondřej Vlček
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7513–7537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7513-2024, 2024
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Detailed modeling of urban air quality in stable conditions is a challenge. We show the unprecedented sensitivity of a large eddy simulation (LES) model to meteorological boundary conditions and model parameters in an urban environment under stable conditions. We demonstrate the crucial role of boundary conditions for the comparability of results with observations. The study reveals a strong sensitivity of the results to model parameters and model numerical instabilities during such conditions.
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Short summary
Trajectory dispersion models are powerful and intuitive tools for tracing air pollution through the atmosphere. But the turbulent nature of the atmospheric boundary layer makes it challenging to provide accurate predictions near the surface. To overcome this, we propose an approach using wind and turbulence information at high temporal resolution. Finally, we demonstrate the strength of our approach in a case study on dust emissions from agriculture.
Trajectory dispersion models are powerful and intuitive tools for tracing air pollution through...