Articles | Volume 13, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020
Model description paper
 | 
09 Nov 2020
Model description paper |  | 09 Nov 2020

A computationally efficient method for probabilistic local warming projections constrained by history matching and pattern scaling, demonstrated by WASP–LGRTC-1.0

Philip Goodwin, Martin Leduc, Antti-Ilari Partanen, H. Damon Matthews, and Alex Rogers

Related authors

Climate feedbacks with latitude derived from climatological data and theory
Philip Goodwin, Richard Williams, Paulo Ceppi, and B. B. Cael
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307, 2023
Short summary
Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets
Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, 2021
Short summary
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary
A record of Neogene seawater δ11B reconstructed from paired δ11B analyses on benthic and planktic foraminifera
Rosanna Greenop, Mathis P. Hain, Sindia M. Sosdian, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Philip Goodwin, Thomas B. Chalk, Caroline H. Lear, Paul A. Wilson, and Gavin L. Foster
Clim. Past, 13, 149–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-149-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-149-2017, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate and Earth system modeling
Benchmarking GOCART-2G in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)
Allison B. Collow, Peter R. Colarco, Arlindo M. da Silva, Virginie Buchard, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Sampa Das, Ravi Govindaraju, Dongchul Kim, and Valentina Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1443–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1443-2024, 2024
Short summary
Energy-conserving physics for nonhydrostatic dynamics in mass coordinate models
Oksana Guba, Mark A. Taylor, Peter A. Bosler, Christopher Eldred, and Peter H. Lauritzen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1429–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluation and optimisation of the soil carbon turnover routine in the MONICA model (version 3.3.1)
Konstantin Aiteew, Jarno Rouhiainen, Claas Nendel, and René Dechow
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1349–1385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach
Jianfeng Li, Kai Zhang, Taufiq Hassan, Shixuan Zhang, Po-Lun Ma, Balwinder Singh, Qiyang Yan, and Huilin Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1327–1347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1327-2024, 2024
Short summary
Towards the definition of a solar forcing dataset for CMIP7
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Balmaseda, M. A., Mogensen, K., and Weaver, A. T.: Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 1132–1161, 2013. 
Brown, S., Nicholls, R., Goodwin, P., Haigh, I., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A., and Hinkel, J.: Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5 and 2.0 C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300, Earths Future, 6, 583–600, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000738, 2018. 
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., and Zhu, J.: Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601545, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545, 2017. 
Fordham, D. A., Wigley, T. M. L., Watts, M. J., and Brook, B. W.: Strengthening forecasts of climate change impacts with multi-model ensemble averaged projections using MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Ecography 35, 4–8, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07398.x, 2012. 
Frölicher, T. L., Winton, M., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage. Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 40–44, 2014 
Download
Short summary
Numerical climate models are used to make projections of future surface warming for different pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions, where future surface warming will vary from place to place. However, it is so expensive to run complex models using supercomputers that future projections can only be produced for a small number of possible future emissions pathways. This study presents an efficient climate model to make projections of local surface warming using a desktop computer.