Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
24 Mar 2020
Model description paper |
| 24 Mar 2020
| 24 Mar 2020
FALL3D-8.0: a computational model for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles, aerosols and radionuclides – Part 1: Model physics and numerics
CASE Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Leonardo Mingari
CASE Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Natalia Gutierrez
CASE Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Mauricio Hanzich
CASE Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Giovanni Macedonio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Antonio Costa
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1773–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, 2022
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Short summary
We present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to improve forecasting of volcanic aerosols. This system can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing resources. We found a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when satellite retrievals are continuously assimilated. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from this research.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
Soledad Osores, Juan Ruiz, Arnau Folch, and Estela Collini
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020, 2020
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Volcanic ash dispersal forecasts are routinely used to avoid aircraft encounters with volcanic ash. However, the accuracy of these forecasts depends on the knowledge of key factors that are usually difficult to observe directly. In this work we apply an inverse methodology to improve ash concentration forecasts. Results are encouraging, showing that accurate estimations of ash emissions can be performed using the proposed approach, leading to an improvement in ash concentration forecasts.
Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4019–4038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018, 2018
Short summary
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We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Leonardo A. Mingari, Estela A. Collini, Arnau Folch, Walter Báez, Emilce Bustos, María Soledad Osores, Florencia Reckziegel, Peter Alexander, and José G. Viramonte
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6759–6778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6759-2017, 2017
Short summary
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In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive description of
a dust episode occurred in South America in June 2015 through
observations and numerical simulations. We have investigated
the spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols and the emission
process over complex terrain to gain insight into the key role
played by the orography and the condition that triggered the
long-range transport episode.
Alejandro Marti, Arnau Folch, Oriol Jorba, and Zavisa Janjic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4005–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a novel online multi-scale meteorological and transport model developed at the BSC-CNS capable of forecasting the dispersal and deposition of volcanic ash. The forecast skills of the model have been validated and they improve on those from traditional operational offline (decoupled) models. The results support the use of online coupled models to aid civil aviation and emergency management during a crisis such as the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull.
A. Folch, A. Costa, and G. Macedonio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016
Short summary
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We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice.
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2289–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, 2014
A. Folch, L. Mingari, M. S. Osores, and E. Collini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 119–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-119-2014, 2014
Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio
Solid Earth, 15, 459–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, 2024
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We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro A. Di Vito, Laura Sandri, and Domenico M. Doronzo
Solid Earth, 15, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, 2024
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We present a numerical model for lahars generated by the mobilization of tephra deposits from a reference size eruption at Somma–Vesuvius. The paper presents the model (pyhsics and numerics) and a sensitivity analysis of the processes modelled, numerical schemes, and grid resolution. This work provides the basis for application to hazard quantification for lahars in the Vesuvius area. To this end, we rely on results of the two companion papers (Part 1 on field data, Part 3 on hazard maps).
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
Solid Earth, 15, 405–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, 2024
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We study the distribution of two historical pyroclastic fall–flow and lahar deposits from the sub-Plinian Vesuvius eruptions of 472 CE Pollena and 1631. The motivation comes directly from the widely distributed impact that both the eruptions and lahar phenomena had on the Campanian territory, not only around the volcano but also down the nearby Apennine valleys. Data on about 500 stratigraphic sections and modeling allowed us to evaluate the physical and dynamical impact of these phenomena.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, 2023
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We present results of non-volcanic gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold gas stream, which had already been lethal for humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentration at defined probability levels and of the probability to overcome specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
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A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
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We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1773–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to improve forecasting of volcanic aerosols. This system can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing resources. We found a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when satellite retrievals are continuously assimilated. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from this research.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
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In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
Soledad Osores, Juan Ruiz, Arnau Folch, and Estela Collini
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic ash dispersal forecasts are routinely used to avoid aircraft encounters with volcanic ash. However, the accuracy of these forecasts depends on the knowledge of key factors that are usually difficult to observe directly. In this work we apply an inverse methodology to improve ash concentration forecasts. Results are encouraging, showing that accurate estimations of ash emissions can be performed using the proposed approach, leading to an improvement in ash concentration forecasts.
Silvia Massaro, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Diego Coppola, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 10, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, 2019
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The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive history, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. Here we reconstructed the 1998–2018 average discharge rate by means of satellite thermal data and the literature. Using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-term cyclic behavior that is in good agreement with numerical modeling, accounting for a variable magmatic feeding system composed of a single or double magma chamber system.
Matthieu Poret, Stefano Corradini, Luca Merucci, Antonio Costa, Daniele Andronico, Mario Montopoli, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Valentin Freret-Lorgeril
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4695–4714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, 2018
Short summary
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This study aims at proposing a method to better assess the initial magma fragmentation produced during explosive volcanic eruptions. We worked on merging field, radar, and satellite data to estimate the total grain-size distribution, which is used within simulations to reconstruct the tephra loading and far-travelling airborne ash dispersal. This approach is applied to 23 November 2013, giving the very fine ash fraction related to volcanic hazards (e.g. air traffic safety).
Alejandro Marti and Arnau Folch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4019–4038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4019-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify the systematic errors associated with traditional offline modeling systems used for operational volcanic ash forecast. Evaluation scores indicate that uncertainties credited to offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term, failing to reproduce up to 45–70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. This work encourages operational groups to consider online dispersal models for real-time aviation advisory.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Leonardo A. Mingari, Estela A. Collini, Arnau Folch, Walter Báez, Emilce Bustos, María Soledad Osores, Florencia Reckziegel, Peter Alexander, and José G. Viramonte
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6759–6778, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6759-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive description of
a dust episode occurred in South America in June 2015 through
observations and numerical simulations. We have investigated
the spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols and the emission
process over complex terrain to gain insight into the key role
played by the orography and the condition that triggered the
long-range transport episode.
Alejandro Marti, Arnau Folch, Oriol Jorba, and Zavisa Janjic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4005–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a novel online multi-scale meteorological and transport model developed at the BSC-CNS capable of forecasting the dispersal and deposition of volcanic ash. The forecast skills of the model have been validated and they improve on those from traditional operational offline (decoupled) models. The results support the use of online coupled models to aid civil aviation and emergency management during a crisis such as the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull.
A. Folch, A. Costa, and G. Macedonio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2289–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, 2014
A. Folch, L. Mingari, M. S. Osores, and E. Collini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 119–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-119-2014, 2014
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Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model
Rolf Sander
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2419–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2419-2024, 2024
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The open-source software MEXPLORER 1.0.0 is presented here. The program can be used to analyze, reduce, and visualize complex chemical reaction mechanisms. The mathematics behind the tool is based on graph theory: chemical species are represented as vertices, and reactions as edges. MEXPLORER is a community model published under the GNU General Public License.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Jesse Norris, Alex Hall, Naomi Goldenson, Will Krantz, Benjamin Bass, Chad Thackeray, Henry Lin, Di Chen, Eli Dennis, Ethan Collins, Zachary J. Lebo, Emily Slinskey, Sara Graves, Surabhi Biyani, Bowen Wang, Stephen Cropper, and the UCLA Center for Climate Science Team
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2265–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, 2024
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Here, we project future climate across the western United States through the end of the 21st century using a regional climate model, embedded within 16 latest-generation global climate models, to provide the community with a high-resolution physically based ensemble of climate data for use at local scales. Strengths and weaknesses of the data are frankly discussed as we overview the downscaled dataset.
Romain Pilon and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2247–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2247-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a new method for detecting atmospheric cloud bands to identify long convective cloud bands that extend from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The algorithm allows for easy use and enables researchers to study the life cycle and climatology of cloud bands and associated rainfall. This method provides insights into the large-scale processes involved in cloud band formation and their connections between different regions, as well as differences across ocean basins.
Salvatore Larosa, Domenico Cimini, Donatello Gallucci, Saverio Teodosio Nilo, and Filomena Romano
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2053–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2053-2024, 2024
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PyRTlib is an attractive educational tool because it provides a flexible and user-friendly way to broadly simulate how electromagnetic radiation travels through the atmosphere as it interacts with atmospheric constituents (such as gases, aerosols, and hydrometeors). PyRTlib is a so-called radiative transfer model; these are commonly used to simulate and understand remote sensing observations from ground-based, airborne, or satellite instruments.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1995–2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1995-2024, 2024
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Our research presents an innovative approach to estimating power plant CO2 emissions from satellite images of the corresponding plumes such as those from the forthcoming CO2M satellite constellation. The exploitation of these images is challenging due to noise and meteorological uncertainties. To overcome these obstacles, we use a deep learning neural network trained on simulated CO2 images. Our method outperforms alternatives, providing a positive perspective for the analysis of CO2M images.
Kyoung-Min Kim, Si-Wan Kim, Seunghwan Seo, Donald R. Blake, Seogju Cho, James H. Crawford, Louisa K. Emmons, Alan Fried, Jay R. Herman, Jinkyu Hong, Jinsang Jung, Gabriele G. Pfister, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Jung-Hun Woo, and Qiang Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1931–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1931-2024, 2024
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Three emission inventories were evaluated for East Asia using data acquired during a field campaign in 2016. The inventories successfully reproduced the daily variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide. However, the spatial distributions of model ozone did not fully agree with the observations. Additionally, all simulations underestimated carbon monoxide and volatile organic compound (VOC) levels. Increasing VOC emissions over South Korea resulted in improved ozone simulations.
Sanam Noreen Vardag and Robert Maiwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1885–1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1885-2024, 2024
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We use the atmospheric transport model GRAMM/GRAL in a Bayesian inversion to estimate urban CO2 emissions on a neighbourhood scale. We analyse the effect of varying number, precision and location of CO2 sensors for CO2 flux estimation. We further test the inclusion of co-emitted species and correlation in the inversion. The study showcases the general usefulness of GRAMM/GRAL in measurement network design.
Abhishek Savita, Joakim Kjellsson, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Mojib Latif, Tabea Rahm, Sebastian Wahl, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1813–1829, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1813-2024, 2024
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The OpenIFS model is used to examine the impact of horizontal resolutions (HR) and model time steps. We find that the surface wind biases over the oceans, in particular the Southern Ocean, are sensitive to the model time step and HR, with the HR having the smallest biases. When using a coarse-resolution model with a shorter time step, a similar improvement is also found. Climate biases can be reduced in the OpenIFS model at a cheaper cost by reducing the time step rather than increasing the HR.
Ferdinand Briegel, Jonas Wehrle, Dirk Schindler, and Andreas Christen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1667–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1667-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to model heat stress in cities using artificial intelligence (AI). We show that the AI model is fast in terms of prediction but accurate when evaluated with measurements. The fast-predictive AI model enables several new potential applications, including heat stress prediction and warning; downscaling of potential future climates; evaluation of adaptation effectiveness; and, more fundamentally, development of guidelines to support urban planning and policymaking.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
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A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Tao Zheng, Sha Feng, Jeffrey Steward, Xiaoxu Tian, David Baker, and Martin Baxter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1543-2024, 2024
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The tangent linear and adjoint models have been successfully implemented in the MPAS-CO2 system, which has undergone rigorous accuracy testing. This development lays the groundwork for a global carbon flux data assimilation system, which offers the flexibility of high-resolution focus on specific areas, while maintaining a coarser resolution elsewhere. This approach significantly reduces computational costs and is thus perfectly suited for future CO2 geostationery and imager satellites.
Kelvin H. Bates, Mathew J. Evans, Barron H. Henderson, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1511–1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1511-2024, 2024
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Accurate representation of rates and products of chemical reactions in atmospheric models is crucial for simulating concentrations of pollutants and climate forcers. We update the widely used GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model with reaction parameters from recent compilations of experimental data and demonstrate the implications for key atmospheric chemical species. The updates decrease tropospheric CO mixing ratios and increase stratospheric nitrogen oxide mixing ratios, among other changes.
François Roberge, Alejandro Di Luca, René Laprise, Philippe Lucas-Picher, and Julie Thériault
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1497–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, 2024
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Our study addresses a challenge in dynamical downscaling using regional climate models, focusing on the lack of small-scale features near the boundaries. We introduce a method to identify this “spatial spin-up” in precipitation simulations. Results show spin-up distances up to 300 km, varying by season and driving variable. Double nesting with comprehensive variables (e.g. microphysical variables) offers advantages. Findings will help optimize simulations for better climate projections.
Eloisa Raluy-López, Juan Pedro Montávez, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1469–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1469-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) represent a significant source of water but are also related to extreme precipitation events. Here, we present a new regional-scale AR identification algorithm and apply it to three simulations that include aerosol interactions at different levels. The results show that aerosols modify the intensity and trajectory of ARs and redistribute the AR-related precipitation. Thus, the correct inclusion of aerosol effects is important in the simulation of AR behavior.
Sofía Gómez Maqueo Anaya, Dietrich Althausen, Matthias Faust, Holger Baars, Bernd Heinold, Julian Hofer, Ina Tegen, Albert Ansmann, Ronny Engelmann, Annett Skupin, Birgit Heese, and Kerstin Schepanski
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1271–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1271-2024, 2024
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Mineral dust aerosol particles vary greatly in their composition depending on source region, which leads to different physicochemical properties. Most atmosphere–aerosol models consider mineral dust aerosols to be compositionally homogeneous, which ultimately increases model uncertainty. Here, we present an approach to explicitly consider the heterogeneity of the mineralogical composition for simulations of the Saharan atmospheric dust cycle with regard to dust transport towards the Atlantic.
Alexandros Milousis, Alexandra P. Tsimpidi, Holger Tost, Spyros N. Pandis, Athanasios Nenes, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, and Vlassis A. Karydis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1111–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1111-2024, 2024
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This study aims to evaluate the newly developed ISORROPIA-lite aerosol thermodynamic module within the EMAC model and explore discrepancies in global atmospheric simulations of aerosol composition and acidity by utilizing different aerosol phase states. Even though local differences were found in regions where the RH ranged from 20 % to 60 %, on a global scale the results are similar. Therefore, ISORROPIA-lite can be a reliable and computationally effective alternative to ISORROPIA II in EMAC.
Marie-Adèle Magnaldo, Quentin Libois, Sébastien Riette, and Christine Lac
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1091–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1091-2024, 2024
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With the worldwide development of the solar energy sector, the need for reliable solar radiation forecasts has significantly increased. However, meteorological models that predict, among others things, solar radiation have errors. Therefore, we wanted to know in which situtaions these errors are most significant. We found that errors mostly occur in cloudy situations, and different errors were highlighted depending on the cloud altitude. Several potential sources of errors were identified.
Dongqi Lin, Jiawei Zhang, Basit Khan, Marwan Katurji, and Laura E. Revell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 815–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-815-2024, 2024
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GEO4PALM is an open-source tool to generate static input for the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation (PALM) model system. Geospatial static input is essential for realistic PALM simulations. However, existing tools fail to generate PALM's geospatial static input for most regions. GEO4PALM is compatible with diverse geospatial data sources and provides access to free data sets. In addition, this paper presents two application examples, which show successful PALM simulations using GEO4PALM.
Piotr Zmijewski, Piotr Dziekan, and Hanna Pawlowska
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 759–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-759-2024, 2024
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In computer simulations of clouds it is necessary to model the myriad of droplets that constitute a cloud. A popular method for this is to use so-called super-droplets (SDs), each representing many real droplets. It has remained a challenge to model collisions of SDs. We study how precipitation in a cumulus cloud depends on the number of SDs. Surprisingly, we do not find convergence in mean precipitation even for numbers of SDs much larger than typically used in simulations.
Roya Ghahreman, Wanmin Gong, Paul A. Makar, Alexandru Lupu, Amanda Cole, Kulbir Banwait, Colin Lee, and Ayodeji Akingunola
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 685–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, 2024
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The article explores the impact of different representations of below-cloud scavenging on model biases. A new scavenging scheme and precipitation-phase partitioning improve the model's performance, with better SO42- scavenging and wet deposition of NO3- and NH4+.
Daisuke Goto, Tatsuya Seiki, Kentaroh Suzuki, Hisashi Yashiro, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 651–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-651-2024, 2024
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Global climate models with coarse grid sizes include uncertainties about the processes in aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. To reduce these uncertainties, here we performed numerical simulations using a new version of our global aerosol transport model with a finer grid size over a longer period than in our previous study. As a result, we found that the cloud microphysics module influences the aerosol distributions through both aerosol wet deposition and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, Enrico Pisoni, and Bertrand Bessagnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 587–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-587-2024, 2024
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In our study the robustness of the model responses to emission reductions in the EU is assessed when the emission data are changed. Our findings are particularly important to better understand the uncertainties associated to the emission inventories and how these uncertainties impact the level of accuracy of the resulting air quality modelling, which is a key for designing air quality plans. Also crucial is the choice of indicator to avoid misleading interpretations of the results.
Haiqin Li, Georg A. Grell, Ravan Ahmadov, Li Zhang, Shan Sun, Jordan Schnell, and Ning Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 607–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-607-2024, 2024
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We developed a simple and realistic method to provide aerosol emissions for aerosol-aware microphysics in a numerical weather forecast model. The cloud-radiation differences between the experimental (EXP) and control (CTL) experiments responded to the aerosol differences. The strong positive precipitation biases over North America and Europe from the CTL run were significantly reduced in the EXP run. This study shows that a realistic representation of aerosol emissions should be considered.
Giancarlo Ciarelli, Sara Tahvonen, Arineh Cholakian, Manuel Bettineschi, Bruno Vitali, Tuukka Petäjä, and Federico Bianchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 545–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-545-2024, 2024
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The terrestrial ecosystem releases large quantities of biogenic gases in the Earth's Atmosphere. These gases can effectively be converted into so-called biogenic aerosol particles and, eventually, affect the Earth's climate. Climate prediction varies greatly depending on how these processes are represented in model simulations. In this study, we present a detailed model evaluation analysis aimed at understanding the main source of uncertainty in predicting the formation of biogenic aerosols.
Jiachen Liu, Eric Chen, and Shannon L. Capps
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 567–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-567-2024, 2024
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Air pollution harms human life and ecosystems, but its sources are complex. Scientists and policy makers use air pollution models to advance knowledge and inform control strategies. We implemented a recently developed numeral system to relate any set of model inputs, like pollutant emissions from a given activity, to all model outputs, like concentrations of pollutants harming human health. This approach will be straightforward to update when scientists discover new processes in the atmosphere.
Kun Zheng, Qiya Tan, Huihua Ruan, Jinbiao Zhang, Cong Luo, Siyu Tang, Yunlei Yi, Yugang Tian, and Jianmei Cheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 399–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-399-2024, 2024
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Radar echo extrapolation is the common method in precipitation nowcasting. Deep learning has potential in extrapolation. However, the existing models have low prediction accuracy for heavy rainfall. In this study, the prediction accuracy is improved by suppressing the blurring effect of rain distribution and reducing the negative bias. The results show that our model has better performance, which is useful for urban operation and flood prevention.
Li Pan, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Li Zhang, Raffaele Montuoro, Barry Baker, Jeff McQueen, Georg A. Grell, Stuart A. McKeen, Shobha Kondragunta, Xiaoyang Zhang, Gregory J. Frost, Fanglin Yang, and Ivanka Stajner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-431-2024, 2024
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A GEFS-Aerosols simulation was conducted from 1 September 2019 to 30 September 2020 to evaluate the model performance of GEFS-Aerosols. The purpose of this study was to understand how aerosol chemical and physical processes affect ambient aerosol concentrations by placing aerosol wet deposition, dry deposition, reactions, gravitational deposition, and emissions into the aerosol mass balance equation.
Sean Raffuse, Susan O'Neill, and Rebecca Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-381-2024, 2024
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Large wildfires are increasing throughout the western United States, and wildfire smoke is hazardous to public health. We developed a suite of tools called rapidfire for estimating particle pollution during wildfires using routinely available data sets. rapidfire uses official air monitoring, satellite data, meteorology, smoke modeling, and low-cost sensors. Estimates from rapidfire compare well with ground monitors and are being used in public health studies across California.
Manuel F. Schmid, Marco G. Giometto, Gregory A. Lawrence, and Marc B. Parlange
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 321–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-321-2024, 2024
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Turbulence-resolving flow models have strict performance requirements, as simulations often run for weeks using hundreds of processes. Many flow scenarios also require the flexibility to modify physical and numerical models for problem-specific requirements. With a new code written in Julia we hope to make such adaptations easier without compromising on performance. In this paper we discuss the modeling approach and present validation and performance results.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, 2024
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In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air–sea interface are not represented explicitly but with parameterisations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterisation of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate, and the possibility of being used in atmosphere–wave coupled models.
Lukas Fehr, Chris McLinden, Debora Griffin, Daniel Zawada, Doug Degenstein, and Adam Bourassa
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7491–7507, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7491-2023, 2023
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This work highlights upgrades to SASKTRAN, a model that simulates sunlight interacting with the atmosphere to help measure trace gases. The upgrades were verified by detailed comparisons between different numerical methods. A case study was performed using SASKTRAN’s multidimensional capabilities, which found that ignoring horizontal variation in the atmosphere (a common practice in the field) can introduce non-negligible errors where there is snow or high pollution.
Sylvain Mailler, Romain Pennel, Laurent Menut, and Arineh Cholakian
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7509–7526, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7509-2023, 2023
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We show that a new advection scheme named PPM + W (piecewise parabolic method + Walcek) offers geoscientific modellers an alternative, high-performance scheme designed for Cartesian-grid advection, with improved performance over the classical PPM scheme. The computational cost of PPM + W is not higher than that of PPM. With improved accuracy and controlled computational cost, this new scheme may find applications in chemistry-transport models, ocean models or atmospheric circulation models.
David R. Shaw, Toby J. Carter, Helen L. Davies, Ellen Harding-Smith, Elliott C. Crocker, Georgia Beel, Zixu Wang, and Nicola Carslaw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7411–7431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7411-2023, 2023
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Exposure to air pollution is one of the greatest risks to human health, and it is indoors, where we spend upwards of 90 % of our time, that our exposure is greatest. The INdoor CHEMical model in Python (INCHEM-Py) is a new, community-led box model that tracks the evolution and fate of atmospheric chemical pollutants indoors. We have shown the processes simulated by INCHEM-Py, its ability to model experimental data and how it may be used to develop further understanding of indoor air chemistry.
Willem E. van Caspel, David Simpson, Jan Eiof Jonson, Anna M. K. Benedictow, Yao Ge, Alcide di Sarra, Giandomenico Pace, Massimo Vieno, Hannah L. Walker, and Mathew R. Heal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7433–7459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7433-2023, 2023
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Radiation coming from the sun is essential to atmospheric chemistry, driving the breakup, or photodissociation, of atmospheric molecules. This in turn affects the chemical composition and reactivity of the atmosphere. The representation of photodissociation effects is therefore essential in atmospheric chemistry modeling. One such model is the EMEP MSC-W model, for which a new way of calculating the photodissociation rates is tested and evaluated in this paper.
Jungmin Lee, Walter M. Hannah, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7275–7287, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7275-2023, 2023
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Representing accurate land–atmosphere interaction processes is overlooked in weather and climate models. In this study, we propose three methods to represent land–atmosphere coupling in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) with the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) approach. In this study, we introduce spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous land–atmosphere interaction processes within the cloud-resolving model domain. Our 5-year simulations reveal only small differences.
Laurent Menut, Bertrand Bessagnet, Arineh Cholakian, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, and Romain Pennel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study is about the modelling of the atmospheric composition in Europe and during the summer 2022, when massive wildfires were observed. It is a sensitivity study dedicated to the relative impact of two modelling processes able to modify the meteorology used for the calculation of the atmospheric chemistry and transport of pollutants.
Rohith Muraleedharan Thundathil, Florian Zus, Galina Dick, and Jens Wickert
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-202, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Global Navigation Satellite Systems provide moisture observations through its densely distributed ground station network. In this research, we assimilated a new type of observation called tropospheric gradient observations, which was never incorporated into a weather model. Here, we have developed a forward operator for gradient observations and performed impact studies. Promising improvements were observed in the humidity fields of the model in the assimilation study.
Liangke Huang, Shengwei Lan, Ge Zhu, Fade Chen, Junyu Li, and Lilong Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7223–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7223-2023, 2023
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The existing zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) models have limitations such as using a single fitting function, neglecting daily cycle variations, and relying on only one resolution grid data point for modeling. This model considers the daily cycle variation and latitude factor of ZTD, using the sliding window algorithm based on ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The ZTD data from 545 radiosonde stations and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis data are used to validate the accuracy of the GGZTD-P model.
Jonathan J. Guerrette, Zhiquan Liu, Chris Snyder, Byoung-Joo Jung, Craig S. Schwartz, Junmei Ban, Steven Vahl, Yali Wu, Ivette Hernández Baños, Yonggang G. Yu, Soyoung Ha, Yannick Trémolet, Thomas Auligné, Clementine Gas, Benjamin Ménétrier, Anna Shlyaeva, Mark Miesch, Stephen Herbener, Emily Liu, Daniel Holdaway, and Benjamin T. Johnson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7123–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7123-2023, 2023
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We demonstrate an ensemble of variational data assimilations (EDA) with the Model for Prediction Across Scales and the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) software framework. When compared to 20-member ensemble forecasts from operational initial conditions, those from 80-member EDA-generated initial conditions improve flow-dependent error covariances and subsequent 10 d forecasts. These experiments are repeatable for any atmospheric model with a JEDI interface.
Junyu Li, Yuxin Wang, Lilong Liu, Yibin Yao, Liangke Hang, and Feijuan Li
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-201, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this study, we have developed a model (RF-PWV) to characterize PWV variation with altitude in the study area. The RF-PWV can significantly reduce errors in vertical correction, enhance PWV fusion product accuracy, and provide insights into PWV vertical distribution, thereby contributing to climate research.
Minjie Zheng, Hongyu Liu, Florian Adolphi, Raimund Muscheler, Zhengyao Lu, Mousong Wu, and Nønne L. Prisle
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7037–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7037-2023, 2023
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The radionuclides 7Be and 10Be are useful tracers for atmospheric transport studies. Here we use the GEOS-Chem to simulate 7Be and 10Be with different production rates: the default production rate in GEOS-Chem and two from the state-of-the-art beryllium production model. We demonstrate that reduced uncertainties in the production rates can enhance the utility of 7Be and 10Be as tracers for evaluating transport and scavenging processes in global models.
Wenxing Jia, Xiaoye Zhang, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Deying Wang, Junting Zhong, Wenjie Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lifeng Guo, Yadong Lei, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, and Yi Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6833–6856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6833-2023, 2023
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In addition to the dominant role of the PBL scheme on the results of the meteorological field, many factors in the model are influenced by large uncertainties. This study focuses on the uncertainties that influence numerical simulation results (including horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, near-surface scheme, initial and boundary conditions, underlying surface update, and update of model version), hoping to provide a reference for scholars conducting research on the model.
Owen K. Hughes and Christiane Jablonowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6805–6831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6805-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric models benefit from idealized tests that assess their accuracy in a simpler simulation. A new test with artificial mountains is developed for models on a spherical earth. The mountains trigger the development of both planetary-scale and small-scale waves. These can be analyzed in dry or moist environments, with a simple rainfall mechanism. Four atmospheric models are intercompared. This sheds light on the pros and cons of the model design and the impact of mountains on the flow.
Zhongwei Luo, Yan Han, Kun Hua, Yufen Zhang, Jianhui Wu, Xiaohui Bi, Qili Dai, Baoshuang Liu, Yang Chen, Xin Long, and Yinchang Feng
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6757–6771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6757-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6757-2023, 2023
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This study explores how the variation in the source profiles adopted in chemical transport models (CTMs) impacts the simulated results of chemical components in PM2.5 based on sensitivity analysis. The impact on PM2.5 components cannot be ignored, and its influence can be transmitted and linked between components. The representativeness and timeliness of the source profile should be paid adequate attention in air quality simulation.
Ulrich Voggenberger, Leopold Haimberger, Federico Ambrogi, and Paul Poli
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-215, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The paper presents a method for calculating balloon drift from historical radiosonde ascent data. This drift can reach distances of several hundred kilometres and is often neglected. Verification shows the beneficial impact of the more accurate balloon position on model assimilation. The method is not limited to radiosondes, but would also work for drop sondes, ozone sondes, or any other in-situ sonde carried by the wind in the pre-GNSS era, provided the necessary information is available.
Jelena Radovic, Michal Belda, Jaroslav Resler, Kryštof Eben, Martin Bureš, Jan Geletič, Pavel Krč, Hynek Řezníček, and Vladimír Fuka
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The initial and boundary conditions are of crucial importance for numerical model (e.g., PALM model) validation studies and have a large influence on the model results especially in the case of studying the atmosphere of a real, complex, and densely built urban environments. Our experiments with different driving conditions for the LES model PALM show its strong dependency on them which is important for the proper separation of errors coming from the boundary conditions and the model itself.
Jan Clemens, Lars Hoffmann, Bärbel Vogel, Sabine Grießbach, and Nicole Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-214, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
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Lagrangian transport models simulate the transport of air masses in the atmosphere. For example, one model (CLaMS), is well suited for calculating transport, as it uses a special coordinate system and special vertical wind. However, it only runs inefficiently on modern supercomputers. Hence, we have implemented the benefits of CLaMS into a new model (MPTRAC), which is already highly efficient on modern supercomputers. Finally, in extensive tests, we showed that CLaMS and MPTRAC agree very well.
Wenxing Jia, Xiaoye Zhang, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Deying Wang, Junting Zhong, Wenjie Zhang, Lei Zhang, Lifeng Guo, Yadong Lei, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, and Yi Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6635–6670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6635-2023, 2023
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Most current studies on planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes are relatively fragmented and lack systematic in-depth analysis and discussion. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the performance capability of the PBL scheme in five typical regions of China in different seasons from the mechanism of the scheme and the effects of PBL schemes on the near-surface meteorological parameters, vertical structures of the PBL, PBL height, and turbulent diffusion.
William Rudisill, Alejandro Flores, and Rosemary Carroll
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6531–6552, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6531-2023, 2023
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It is important to know how well atmospheric models do in mountains, but there are not very many weather stations. We evaluate rain and snow from a model from 1987–2020 in the Upper Colorado River basin against the available data. The model works rather well, but there are still some uncertainties in remote locations. We then use snow maps collected by aircraft, streamflow measurements, and some advanced statistics to help identify how well the model works in ways we could not do before.
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Short summary
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code.
This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track...
