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GMD | Articles | Volume 12, issue 12
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: The Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land (LPJmL) dynamic...
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper 03 Dec 2019
Development and technical paper | 03 Dec 2019
Improving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data
Markus Drüke et al.
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Irene E. Teubner, Matthias Forkel, Benjamin Wild, Leander Mösinger, and Wouter A. Dorigo
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-413, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-413, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
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Vegetation optical depth (VOD), which contains information on vegetation water content and biomass, has been previously shown to be related to gross primary production (GPP). In this study, we analyzed the impact of adding temperature as model input and investigated if this can reduce the previously observed overestimation of VOD-derived GPP. In addition, we could show that the relationship between VOD and GPP largely holds true along a gradient of dry- or wetness conditions.
Gilvan Sampaio, Marília Shimizu, Carlos A. Guimarães-Júnior, Felipe Alexandre, Manoel Cardoso, Tomas F. Domingues, Anja Rammig, Celso von Randow, Luiz F. C. Rezende, and David M. Lapola
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-386, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
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The impact of large-scale deforestation and the physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on Amazon rainfall are systematically compared in this study. Our results are remarkable in showing that the two disturbances cause equivalent rainfall decrease, though through different causal mechanisms. These results highlight the importance of not only curbing regional deforestation but also reducing global CO2 emissions to avoid climatic changes in the Amazon.
Alexander Kuhn-Régnier, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Peer Nowack, Matthias Forkel, I. Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-409, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-409, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
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Along with current climate, vegetation, and human influences, long-term accumulation of biomass affects fires. Here, we find that including the influence of antecedent vegetation and moisture improves our ability to predict global burnt area. Additionally, the length of the preceding period which needs to be considered for accurate predictions varies across regions.
Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-41, 2020
Preprint under review for NPG
Daniel Tesfay, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng, Pingyuan Wei, Jinqiao Duan, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2020-31, 2020
Preprint under review for NPG
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For more than a decade, the climate has attracted stochastic dynamists with its unpredictable and complex phenomena. Our attention was attracted by the results of studies on the possibility of oceanic thermohaline circulation failure. We set the task to analyze the stability of the circulation current on-state and to predetermine what extreme events can unbalance it leading to attenuation. We also suggested possible scenarios for the resuscitation of the circulation in the event of its fading.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
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In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-18, 2020
Preprint under review for ESD
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In the Earth system, there exists climate tipping elements that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual, but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna A. Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael S. Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
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This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for a high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth System Models.
Leander Moesinger, Wouter Dorigo, Richard de Jeu, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Irene Teubner, and Matthias Forkel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 177–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-177-2020, 2020
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Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is measured by satellites and is related to the density of vegetation and its water content. VOD has a wide range of uses, including drought, wildfire danger, biomass, and carbon stock monitoring. For the past 30 years there have been various VOD data sets derived from space-borne microwave sensors, but biases between them prohibit a combined use. We removed these biases and merged the data to create the global long-term VOD Climate Archive (VODCA).
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-595, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-595, 2020
Preprint under review for HESS
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Growth and irrigation water demand of cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model, LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e. without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019
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We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Kirsten Thonicke, Fanny Langerwisch, Matthias Baumann, Pedro J. Leitão, Tomáš Václavík, Ane Alencar, Margareth Simões, Simon Scheiter, Liam Langan, Mercedes Bustamante, Ignacio Gasparri, Marina Hirota, Jan Börner, Raoni Rajao, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Alberto Yanosky, José-Manuel Ochoa-Quinteiro, Lucas Seghezzo, Georgina Conti, and Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Tropical dry forests and savannas harbor unique biodiversity and provide critical ecosystem services (ES), yet they are under severe pressure globally. We need to improve our understanding of how and when this pressure provokes tipping points in biodiversity and the associated social-ecological systems. We propose an approach to investigate how drivers leading to natural vegetation decline trigger biodiversity tipping and illustrate it using the example of the Dry Diagonal in South America.
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
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Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Katharina Waha, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle are of central importance for Earth system science. Nutrient limitations, especially from nitrogen, are important constraints on vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon cycle. We extended the well-established global vegetation, hydrology, and crop model LPJmL with a nitrogen cycle. We find significant improvement in global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity can now be largely reproduced by the model.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Matthias Forkel, Wouter Dorigo, Gitta Lasslop, Irene Teubner, Emilio Chuvieco, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4443–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, 2017
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Wildfires affect infrastructures, vegetation, and the atmosphere. However, it is unclear how fires should be accurately represented in global vegetation models. We introduce here a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach that allows us to explore sensitivities of burned areas to satellite and climate datasets. Our results suggest combining observations with data-driven and process-oriented fire models to better understand the role of fires in the Earth system.
Tim Kittel, Catrin Ciemer, Nastaran Lotfi, Thomas Peron, Francisco Rodrigues, Jürgen Kurths, and Reik V. Donner
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2017-69, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
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Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
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Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
M. Fader, S. Shi, W. von Bloh, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 953–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, 2016
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At present, the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems (EICS). By 2080–2090 the region may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements (IRs) of up to 74 % due to climate change and population growth. EICS may be able to compensate to some degree these increases. Most countries in the northern and eastern Mediterranean have a high risk of not being able to meet future IRs due to water scarcity.
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel technique to bias correct climate model output for impact simulations that preserves its physical consistency and multivariate structure. The methodology considerably improves the representation of extremes in climatic variables relative to conventional bias correction strategies. Illustrative simulations of biosphere–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes with a biosphere model (LPJmL) show that the novel technique can be usefully applied to drive climate impact models.
P. Smith, M. F. Cotrufo, C. Rumpel, K. Paustian, P. J. Kuikman, J. A. Elliott, R. McDowell, R. I. Griffiths, S. Asakawa, M. Bustamante, J. I. House, J. Sobocká, R. Harper, G. Pan, P. C. West, J. S. Gerber, J. M. Clark, T. Adhya, R. J. Scholes, and M. C. Scholes
SOIL, 1, 665–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-665-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-665-2015, 2015
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Soils play a pivotal role in major global biogeochemical cycles (carbon, nutrient, and water), while hosting the largest diversity of organisms on land. Soils deliver fundamental ecosystem services, and management to change a soil process in support of one ecosystem service can affect other services. We provide a critical review of these aspects, and conclude that, although there are knowledge gaps, enough is known improve soils globally, and we suggest actions to start this process.
M. Fader, W. von Bloh, S. Shi, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, 2015
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This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses.
The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With this development presented, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
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Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
M. Forkel, N. Carvalhais, S. Schaphoff, W. v. Bloh, M. Migliavacca, M. Thurner, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 11, 7025–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, 2014
T. K. D. Peron, C. H. Comin, D. R. Amancio, L. da F. Costa, F. A. Rodrigues, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1127–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1127-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1127-2014, 2014
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In the past few years, complex networks have been extensively applied to climate sciences, yielding
the new field of climate networks. Here, we generalize climate network analysis by investigating the influence of altitudes in network topology. More precisely, we verified that nodes group into different communities corresponding to geographical areas with similar relief properties. This new approach may contribute to obtaining more complete climate network models.
Y. Zou, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, M. Small, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1113–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1113-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1113-2014, 2014
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We use visibility graphs to characterize asymmetries in the dynamics of sunspot areas in both solar hemispheres. Our analysis provides deep insights into the potential and limitations of this method, revealing a complex interplay between effects due to statistical versus dynamical properties of the observed data. Temporal changes in the hemispheric predominance of the graph connectivity are found to lag those directly associated with the total hemispheric sunspot areas themselves.
D. Eroglu, N. Marwan, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1085–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1085-2014, 2014
B. Goswami, J. Heitzig, K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, A. Anoop, S. Prasad, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 1093–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014, 2014
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We present a new approach to estimating sedimentary proxy records along with the proxy uncertainty. We provide analytical expressions for the proxy record, while transparently propagating uncertainties from the ages to the proxy record. We represent proxies on an error-free, precise timescale. Our approach provides insight into the interrelations between proxy variability and the various uncertainties. We demonstrate our method with synthetic examples and proxy data from the Lonar lake in India.
V. Stolbova, P. Martin, B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-901-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-901-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 691–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-691-2014, 2014
L. Tupikina, K. Rehfeld, N. Molkenthin, V. Stolbova, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 705–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-705-2014, 2014
N. Molkenthin, K. Rehfeld, V. Stolbova, L. Tupikina, and J. Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 651–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-651-2014, 2014
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, N. Jajcay, M. Vejmelka, R. Donner, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and M. Paluš
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 451–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-451-2014, 2014
K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 10, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-107-2014, 2014
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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Energy, water and carbon exchanges in managed forest ecosystems: description, sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the INRAE GO+ model, version 3.0
HR3DHG version 1: modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of mercury in the Augusta Bay (southern Italy)
BPOP-v1 model: exploring the impact of changes in the biological pump on the shelf sea and ocean nutrient and redox state
P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production
HETEROFOR 1.0: a spatially explicit model for exploring the response of structurally complex forests to uncertain future conditions – Part 2: Phenology and water cycle
Dynamic upscaling of decomposition kinetics for carbon cycling models
CE-DYNAM (v1): a spatially explicit process-based carbon erosion scheme for use in Earth system models
A coupled pelagic–benthic–sympagic biogeochemical model for the Bering Sea: documentation and validation of the BESTNPZ model (v2019.08.23) within a high-resolution regional ocean model
FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland v1.0: a spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics
ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK (r5459), a global model for the production, transport, and transformation of dissolved organic carbon from Arctic permafrost regions – Part 2: Model evaluation over the Lena River basin
GLOBAL-FATE (version 1.0.0): A geographical information system (GIS)-based model for assessing contaminants fate in the global river network
A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO2 estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a) – have we hit the wall?
Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (trunk version, rev 4999): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production
A new model of the coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles in the terrestrial biosphere (QUINCY v1.0; revision 1996)
Modelling biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution: a case study for Africa based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)
A lattice-automaton bioturbation simulator with coupled physics, chemistry, and biology in marine sediments (eLABS v0.2)
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 1: Model description
The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 – Part 2: Model evaluation for tropical South America
Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES)
Parameter calibration and stomatal conductance formulation comparison for boreal forests with adaptive population importance sampler in the land surface model JSBACH
Evaluation of leaf-level optical properties employed in land surface models
ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK (r5459), a global model for the production, transport, and transformation of dissolved organic carbon from Arctic permafrost regions – Part 1: Rationale, model description, and simulation protocol
Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488)
Simulating the effect of tillage practices with the global ecosystem model LPJmL (version 5.0-tillage)
Description and validation of an intermediate complexity model for ecosystem photosynthesis and evapotranspiration: ACM-GPP-ETv1
The quasi-equilibrium framework revisited: analyzing long-term CO2 enrichment responses in plant–soil models
Bayesian inference and predictive performance of soil respiration models in the presence of model discrepancy
CO2 drawdown due to particle ballasting by glacial aeolian dust: an estimate based on the ocean carbon cycle model MPIOM/HAMOCC version 1.6.2p3
Towards end-to-end (E2E) modelling in a consistent NPZD-F modelling framework (ECOSMO E2E_v1.0): application to the North Sea and Baltic Sea
Evaluating the E3SM land model version 0 (ELMv0) at a temperate forest site using flux and soil water measurements
The [simple carbon project] model v1.0
MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems
Christopher T. Reinhard, Stephanie L. Olson, Sandra Kirtland Turner, Cecily Pälike, Yoshiki Kanzaki, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5687–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5687-2020, 2020
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We provide documentation and testing of new developments for the oceanic and atmospheric methane cycles in the cGENIE Earth system model. The model is designed to explore Earth's methane cycle across a wide range of timescales and scenarios, in particular assessing the mean climate state and climate perturbations in Earth's deep past. We further document the impact of atmospheric oxygen levels and ocean chemistry on fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from the ocean biosphere.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Marcus Lindner, and Jörg Schaber
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5311–5343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, 2020
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The process-based model 4C has been developed to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and presents an evaluation of 4C. The evaluation focused on forest growth, carbon water, and heat fluxes. We conclude that 4C is widely applicable, reliable, and ready to be released to the scientific community to use and further develop the model.
Zhengang Wang, Jianxiu Qiu, and Kristof Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4977–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4977-2020, 2020
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This study developed a spatially distributed carbon cycling model applicable in an eroding landscape. It includes all three carbon isotopes so that it is able to represent the carbon isotopic compositions. The model is able to represent the observations that eroding area is enriched in 13C and depleted of 14C compared to depositional area. Our simulations show that the spatial variability of carbon isotopic properties in an eroding landscape is mainly caused by the soil redistribution.
Brian N. Bailey, María A. Ponce de León, and E. Scott Krayenhoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4789–4808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4789-2020, 2020
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Numerous models of plant radiation interception based on a range of assumptions are available in the literature, but the importance of each assumption is not well understood. In this work, we evaluate several assumptions common in simple models of radiation interception in canopies with widely spaced plants by comparing against a detailed 3-D model. This yielded a simple model based on readily measurable parameters that could accurately predict interception for a wide range of architectures.
Julius Vira, Peter Hess, Jeff Melkonian, and William R. Wieder
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4459–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4459-2020, 2020
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Mostly emitted by the agricultural sector, ammonia has an important role in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a model to simulate how ammonia emissions respond to changes in temperature and soil moisture, and we evaluated agricultural ammonia emissions globally. The simulated emissions agree with earlier estimates over many regions, but the results highlight the variability of ammonia emissions and suggest that emissions in warm climates may be higher than previously thought.
Emily Kyker-Snowman, William R. Wieder, Serita D. Frey, and A. Stuart Grandy
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4413–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4413-2020, 2020
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Microbes drive carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) transformations in soil, and soil models have started to include explicit microbial physiology and functioning to try to reduce uncertainty in soil–climate feedbacks. Here, we add N cycling to a microbially explicit soil C model and reproduce C and N dynamics in soil during litter decomposition across a range of sites. We discuss model-generated hypotheses about soil C and N cycling and highlight the need for landscape-scale model evaluation data.
Jinxuan Chen, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, and Kai Uwe Totsche
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4091–4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4091-2020, 2020
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One of the essential challenge for atmospheric CO2 forecasting is predicting CO2 flux variation on synoptic timescale. For CAMS CO2 forecast, a process-based vegetation model is used.
In this research we evaluate another type of model (i.e., the light-use-efficiency model VPRM), which is a data-driven approach and thus ideal for realistic estimation, on its ability of flux prediction. Errors from different sources are assessed, and overall the model is capable of CO2 flux prediction.
Yuma Sakai, Hideki Kobayashi, and Tomomichi Kato
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4041–4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4041-2020, 2020
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Chlorophyll fluorescence is one of the energy release pathways of excess incident light in the photosynthetic process. The canopy-scale Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), which potentially provides a direct pathway to link leaf-level photosynthesis to global GPP, can be observed from satellites. We develop the three-dimensional Monte Carlo plant canopy radiative transfer model to understand the biological and physical mechanisms behind SIF emission from complex forest canopies.
Femke Lutz, Stephen Del Grosso, Stephen Ogle, Stephen Williams, Sara Minoli, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020
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Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model and results from meta-analyses on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. By comparing model results with observational data of four experimental sites and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations, we show that advancing information on agricultural management, as well as the representation of soil moisture dynamics, improves LPJmL5.0-tillage and the estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.
Tingting Li, Yanyu Lu, Lingfei Yu, Wenjuan Sun, Qing Zhang, Wen Zhang, Guocheng Wang, Zhangcai Qin, Lijun Yu, Hailing Li, and Ran Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3769–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3769-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3769-2020, 2020
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Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions, which are the largest and most uncertain source of atmospheric CH4. This paper evaluated CH4MODwetland and TEM models against CH4 measurements from different continents and wetland types. Based on best-model performance, we estimated 117–125 Tg yr−1 of global CH4 emissions from wetlands for the period 2000–2010. Efforts should be made to reduce estimate uncertainties for different wetland types and regions.
Jennifer E. Dentith, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Julia C. Tindall, and Laura F. Robinson
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3529–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3529-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3529-2020, 2020
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We have added a new tracer (13C) into the ocean of the FAMOUS climate model to study large-scale circulation and the marine carbon cycle. The model captures the large-scale spatial pattern of observations but the simulated values are consistently higher than observed. In the first instance, our new tracer is therefore useful for recalibrating the physical and biogeochemical components of the model.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Yifei Dai, Long Cao, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3119–3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3119-2020, 2020
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NESM v3 is one of the CMIP6 registered Earth system models. We evaluate its ocean carbon cycle component and present its present-day and future oceanic CO2 uptake based on the CMIP6 historical and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. We hope that this paper can serve as a documentation of the marine biogeochemical cycle in NESM v3. Also, the model defects found and their underlying causes analyzed in this paper could help users and further model development.
Toni Viskari, Maisa Laine, Liisa Kulmala, Jarmo Mäkela, Istem Fer, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-141, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The research here established if a Bayesian statistical method called state data assimilation could be used to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) forecasts. Our test case was a Fallow experiment where SOC content was measured over several decades from a plot where all vegetation was removed. Our results showed that state data assimilation improved projections and allowed for the detailed model state be updated with coarse total carbon measurements.
Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, Eduard Wisernig-Cojoc, Christian Seiler, Matthew Fortier, Ed Chan, and Lina Teckentrup
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2825–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, 2020
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We transitioned the CLASS-CTEM land surface model to an open-source community model format by modernizing the code base to make the model easier to use and understand, providing a complete software environment to run the model within, developing a benchmarking suite for model evaluation, and creating an infrastructure to support community involvement. The new model, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), is now available for the community to use and develop.
Huilin Huang, Yongkang Xue, Fang Li, and Ye Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-122, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Fire is a major disturbance to the world’s biomes and influences the surface fluxes and climate. To assess the long-term fire impact on ecosystem and climate, we developed a fire-coupled dynamic vegetation model that captures the spatial distribution and temporal variability of fire regime. We find fire is an important determinant of the structure and functions of the savanna. By changing the vegetation distribution and ecosystem characteristics, fire causes an increase in surface temperature.
Felix Leung, Karina Williams, Stephen Sitch, Amos P.K. Tai, Andy Wiltshire, Jemma Gornall, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Timiothy Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-97, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food production.
Virginie Moreaux, Simon Martel, Alexandre Bosc, Delphine Picart, David Achat, Christophe Moisy, Raphael Aussenac, Christophe Chipeaux, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Pierre Trichet, Rémi Vezy, Vincent Badeau, Bernard Longdoz, André Granier, Olivier Roupsard, Manuel Nicolas, Kim Pilegaard, Giorgio Matteucci, Claudy Jolivet, Andrew T. Black, Olivier Picard, and Denis Loustau
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-66, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The model GO+ describes the functioning of managed forests based upon biophysical and biogeochemical processes. GO+ accounts for the impacts of forest operations on energy, water and carbon exchanges within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. It includes versatile descriptions of management operations. Its sensitivity and uncertainty are detailed and predictions are compared with observations about mass and energy exchanges, hydrological and tree growth variables from different sites.
Giovanni Denaro, Daniela Salvagio Manta, Alessandro Borri, Maria Bonsignore, Davide Valenti, Enza Quinci, Andrea Cucco, Bernardo Spagnolo, Mario Sprovieri, and Andrea De Gaetano
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2073–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2073-2020, 2020
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The HR3DHG (high-resolution 3D mercury model) investigates the spatiotemporal behavior, in seawater and marine sediments, of three mercury species (elemental, inorganic, and organic mercury) in a highly polluted marine environment (Augusta Bay, southern Italy). The model shows fair agreement with the experimental data collected during six different oceanographic cruises and can possibly be used for a detailed exploration of the effects of climate change on mercury distribution.
Elisa Lovecchio and Timothy M. Lenton
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1865–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1865-2020, 2020
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We present here the newly developed BPOP box model. BPOP is aimed at studying the impact of large-scale changes in the biological pump, i.e. the cycle of production, export and remineralization of the marine organic matter, on the nutrient and oxygen concentrations in the shelf and open ocean. This model has been developed to investigate the global consequences of the evolution of larger and heavier phytoplankton cells but can be applied to a variety of past and future case studies.
Benjamin D. Stocker, Han Wang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sandy P. Harrison, Trevor F. Keenan, David Sandoval, Tyler Davis, and I. Colin Prentice
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1545–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1545-2020, 2020
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Estimating terrestrial photosynthesis relies on satellite data of vegetation cover and models simulating the efficiency by which light absorbed by vegetation is used for CO2 assimilation. This paper presents the P-model, a light use efficiency model derived from a carbon–water optimality principle, and evaluates its predictions of ecosystem-level photosynthesis against globally distributed observations. The model is implemented and openly accessible as an R package (rpmodel).
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
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Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Arjun Chakrawal, Anke M. Herrmann, John Koestel, Jerker Jarsjö, Naoise Nunan, Thomas Kätterer, and Stefano Manzoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1399–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1399-2020, 2020
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Soils are heterogeneous, which results in a nonuniform spatial distribution of substrates and the microorganisms feeding on them. Our results show that the variability in the spatial distribution of substrates and microorganisms at the pore scale is crucial because it affects how fast substrates are used by microorganisms and thus the decomposition rate observed at the soil core scale. This work provides a methodology to include microscale heterogeneity in soil carbon cycling models.
Victoria Naipal, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yilong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1201–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, 2020
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In this study we present the Carbon Erosion DYNAMics model (CE-DYNAM) that links sediment dynamics resulting from water erosion with the soil carbon cycle along a cascade of hillslopes, floodplains, and rivers. The model can simulate the removal of soil and carbon from eroding areas and their destination at regional scale. We calibrated and validated the model for the Rhine catchment, and we show that soil erosion is a potential large net carbon sink over the period 1850–2005.
Kelly Kearney, Albert Hermann, Wei Cheng, Ivonne Ortiz, and Kerim Aydin
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 597–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-597-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-597-2020, 2020
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We describe an ecosystem model for the Bering Sea. Biological components in the Bering Sea can be found in the water column, on and within the bottom sediments, and within the porous lower layer of seasonal sea ice. This model simulates the exchange of material between nutrients and plankton within all three environments. Here, we thoroughly document the model and assess its skill in capturing key biophysical features across the Bering Sea.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Massimiliano Zappa, Marc Scherstjanoi, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 537–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, 2020
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Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are a valuable tool to anticipate these changes. In this study, we combine two existing models that each describe one aspect of the environment: forest dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The coupled model better described observed patterns in vegetation structure. We also found that including the effect of water availability on tree height and rooting depth improved the model.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Carme Font, Francesco Bregoli, Vicenç Acuña, Sergi Sabater, and Rafael Marcé
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5213–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5213-2019, 2019
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GLOBAL-FATE is an open-source, multiplatform, and flexible model that simulates the fate of pharmaceutical-like compounds in the global river network. The model considers the consumption of pharmaceuticals by humans, differentiates between pharmaceutical load treated in wastewater treatment plants from that directly delivered to streams and rivers, and integrates lakes and reservoirs in calculations. GLOBAL-FATE is a powerful tool for pollutant impact studies at the global scale.
Luke Gregor, Alice D. Lebehot, Schalk Kok, and Pedro M. Scheel Monteiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5113–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019
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The ocean plays a vital role in mitigating climate change by taking up atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Historically sparse ship-based measurements of surface ocean CO2 make direct estimates of CO2 exchange changes unreliable. We introduce a machine-learning ensemble approach to fill these observational gaps. Our method performs incrementally better relative to past methods, leading to our hypothesis that we are perhaps reaching the limitation of machine-learning algorithms' capability.
Nicolas Vuichard, Palmira Messina, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Bertrand Guenet, Sönke Zaehle, Josefine Ghattas, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4751–4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, 2019
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In this research, we present a new version of the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled. We evaluate its skills at simulating primary production at 78 sites and at a global scale. Based on a set of additional simulations in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled and uncoupled, we show that the functional responses of the model with carbon–nitrogen interactions better agree with our current understanding of photosynthesis.
Tea Thum, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Melanie Kern, Marleen Pallandt, Reiner Schnur, Lin Yu, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4781–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, 2019
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To predict the response of the vegetation to climate change, we need global models that describe the relevant processes taking place in the vegetation. Recently, we have obtained more in-depth understanding of vegetation processes and the role of nutrients in the biogeochemical cycles. We have developed a new global vegetation model that includes carbon, water, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles. We show that the model is successful in evaluation against a wide range of observations.
Dave van Wees and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4681–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, 2019
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For this paper, a novel high spatial-resolution fire emission model based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework was developed and compared to a coarser-resolution version of the same model. Our findings highlight the importance of fine spatial resolution when modelling global-scale fire emissions, especially considering the comparison of model pixels to individual field measurements and the model representation of heterogeneity in the landscape.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Bernard P. Boudreau, Sandra Kirtland Turner, and Andy Ridgwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4469–4496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4469-2019, 2019
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This paper provides eLABS, an extension of the lattice-automaton bioturbation simulator LABS. In our new model, the benthic animal behavior interacts and changes dynamically with oxygen and organic matter concentrations and the water flows caused by benthic animals themselves, in a 2-D marine-sediment grid. The model can address the mechanisms behind empirical observations of bioturbation based on the interactions between physical, chemical and biological aspects of marine sediment.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, David M. Medvigy, Naomi M. Levine, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Abigail L. S. Swann, Ke Zhang, Christine R. Rollinson, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4309–4346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4309-2019, 2019
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Our paper describes the Ecosystem Demography model. This computer program calculates how plants and ground exchange heat, water, and carbon with the air, and how plants grow, reproduce and die in different climates. Most models simplify forests to an average big tree. We consider that tall, deep-rooted trees get more light and water than small plants, and that some plants can with shade and drought. This diversity helps us to better explain how plants live and interact with the atmosphere.
Marcos Longo, Ryan G. Knox, Naomi M. Levine, Abigail L. S. Swann, David M. Medvigy, Michael C. Dietze, Yeonjoo Kim, Ke Zhang, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Plínio B. Camargo, Matthew N. Hayek, Scott R. Saleska, Rodrigo da Silva, Rafael L. Bras, Steven C. Wofsy, and Paul R. Moorcroft
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4347–4374, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4347-2019, 2019
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The Ecosystem Demography model calculates the fluxes of heat, water, and carbon between plants and ground and the air, and the life cycle of plants in different climates. To test if our calculations were reasonable, we compared our results with field and satellite measurements. Our model predicts well the extent of the Amazon forest, how much light forests absorb, and how much water forests release to the air. However, it must improve the tree growth rates and how fast dead plants decompose.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
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We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Titta Majasalmi and Ryan M. Bright
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3923–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3923-2019, 2019
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Many land surface models rely on solutions derived from two-stream approximations utilizing leaf-level optical properties, many of which have not been formally reviewed or published. Using plant functional type groupings of the Community Land Model (CLM), we found large deviations between measured and CLM default near-infrared optical properties, implying that the modeled shortwave radiation budget including surface albedo may be expected to change after updating the biased parameters.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Thomas Luke Smallman and Mathew Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2227–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2227-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2227-2019, 2019
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Photosynthesis and evapotranspiration are processes with global significance for climate, carbon and water cycling. Process-orientated simulation of these processes and their interactions have till now come at high computational cost. Here we present a new coupled model of intermediate complexity operating at orders of magnitude greater speed. Independent evaluation at FLUXNET sites for a single, global parameterization shows good agreement, with a typical R2 value of ~ 0.60.
Mingkai Jiang, Sönke Zaehle, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anthony P. Walker, Silvia Caldararu, David S. Ellsworth, and Belinda E. Medlyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2069–2089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, 2019
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Here we used a simple analytical framework developed by Comins and McMurtrie (1993) to investigate how different model assumptions affected plant responses to elevated CO2. This framework is useful in revealing both the consequences and the mechanisms through which different assumptions affect predictions. We therefore recommend the use of this framework to analyze the likely outcomes of new assumptions before introducing them to complex model structures.
Ahmed S. Elshall, Ming Ye, Guo-Yue Niu, and Greg A. Barron-Gafford
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2009–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2009-2019, 2019
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The assumptions that the residuals are independent, identically distributed, and have constant variance tend to simplify the underlying mathematics of data models for Bayesian inference. We relax these three assumptions step-wise, resulting in eight data models. Using three mechanistic soil respiration models with different levels of model discrepancy, we discuss the impacts of data models on parameter estimation and predictive performance, and provide recommendations for data model selection.
Malte Heinemann, Joachim Segschneider, and Birgit Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1869–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1869-2019, 2019
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Ocean CO2 uptake played a crucial role for the global cooling during ice ages. Dust formation, e.g. by ice scraping over bedrock, potentially contributed to this CO2 uptake because (1) the iron in the dust is a fertilizer and (2) the heavy dust particles can accelerate sinking organic matter (ballasting hypothesis). This study tests the glacial dust ballasting hypothesis for the first time, using an ocean model. It turns out, however, that the ballasting effect probably played a minor role.
Ute Daewel, Corinna Schrum, and Jed I. Macdonald
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1765–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1765-2019, 2019
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Here we propose a novel modelling approach that includes an extended food web in a functional-group-type marine ecosystem model (ECOSMO E2E) by formulating new groups for macrobenthos and fish. This enables the estimation of the dynamics of the higher-trophic-level production potential and constitutes a more consistent closure term for the lower-trophic-level ecosystem. Thus, the model allows for the study of the control mechanisms for marine ecosystems at a high spatial and temporal resolution.
Junyi Liang, Gangsheng Wang, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Lianhong Gu, Paul J. Hanson, Jeffrey D. Wood, and Melanie A. Mayes
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1601–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1601-2019, 2019
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Soil respiration, the second largest carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and land, is not well represented in global land models. In this study, using long-term observations at a temperate forest, we identified a solution for using better soil water potential simulations to improve predictions of soil respiration in the E3SM land model. In addition, parameter calibration further improved model performance.
Cameron M. O'Neill, Andrew McC. Hogg, Michael J. Ellwood, Stephen M. Eggins, and Bradley N. Opdyke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1541–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1541-2019, 2019
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The [simple carbon project] model v1.0 (SCP-M) was constructed for simulations of the paleo and modern carbon cycle. In this paper we show its application to the carbon cycle transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene period. Our model–data experiment uses SCP-M's fast run time to cover a large range of possible inputs. The results highlight the role of varying the strength of ocean circulation to account for large fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 across the two periods.
Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Florian Humpenöder, Isabelle Weindl, Miodrag Stevanović, Kristine Karstens, Ulrich Kreidenweis, Xiaoxi Wang, Abhijeet Mishra, David Klein, Geanderson Ambrósio, Ewerton Araujo, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Lavinia Baumstark, Stephen Wirth, Anastasis Giannousakis, Felicitas Beier, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1299–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019, 2019
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We provides an overview on version 4 of the MAgPIE open-source framework for modeling global land systems. Among others, MAgPIE has been used to simulate marker scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and contributed substantially to multiple IPCC assessments. Its recent version marks the first open-source release of the framework and introduces several new features. Via its modularity and spatial flexibility it can serve as a tool for a broad range of land-related research topics.
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This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as...
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