Articles | Volume 11, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2609-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2609-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
06 Jul 2018
Development and technical paper |
| 06 Jul 2018
| 06 Jul 2018
GEM-MACH-PAH (rev2488): a new high-resolution chemical transport model for North American polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and benzene
Cynthia H. Whaley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Elisabeth Galarneau
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Paul A. Makar
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Ayodeji Akingunola
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Wanmin Gong
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Sylvie Gravel
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Michael D. Moran
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Craig Stroud
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Junhua Zhang
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
Qiong Zheng
Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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The large range of sulfur and nitrogen deposition estimates from air quality models results in a large range of predicted impacts. We used models and deposition diagnostics to identify the processes controlling atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition variability. Controlling factors included the uptake of gases and aerosols by hydrometeors, aerosol inorganic chemistry, particle dry deposition, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, gas deposition via plant cuticles and soil, and land use data.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2423–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2423-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2423-2025, 2025
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Yugo Kanaya, Roberto Sommariva, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Andrea Mazzeo, Theodore K. Koenig, Kaori Kawana, James E. Johnson, Aurélie Colomb, Pierre Tulet, Suzie Molloy, Ian E. Galbally, Rainer Volkamer, Anoop Mahajan, John W. Halfacre, Paul B. Shepson, Julia Schmale, Hélène Angot, Byron Blomquist, Matthew D. Shupe, Detlev Helmig, Junsu Gil, Meehye Lee, Sean C. Coburn, Ivan Ortega, Gao Chen, James Lee, Kenneth C. Aikin, David D. Parrish, John S. Holloway, Thomas B. Ryerson, Ilana B. Pollack, Eric J. Williams, Brian M. Lerner, Andrew J. Weinheimer, Teresa Campos, Frank M. Flocke, J. Ryan Spackman, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea R. Thompson, Ralf M. Staebler, Amir A. Aliabadi, Wanmin Gong, Roeland Van Malderen, Anne M. Thompson, Ryan M. Stauffer, Debra E. Kollonige, Juan Carlos Gómez Martin, Masatomo Fujiwara, Katie Read, Matthew Rowlinson, Keiichi Sato, Junichi Kurokawa, Yoko Iwamoto, Fumikazu Taketani, Hisahiro Takashima, Monica Navarro Comas, Marios Panagi, and Martin G. Schultz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-566, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-566, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Christian Hogrefe, Stefano Galmarini, Paul A. Makar, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Olivia E. Clifton, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Philip Cheung, Alma Hodzic, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Kester Momoh, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan E. Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Martijn Schaap, Donna B. Schwede, and Ranjeet Sokhi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-225, 2025
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Hazel Cathcart, Julian Aherne, Michael D. Moran, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Paul A. Makar, and Amanda Cole
Biogeosciences, 22, 535–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-535-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-535-2025, 2025
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Deposition from sulfur and nitrogen pollution can harm ecosystems, and recovery from this type of pollution can take decades or longer. To identify risk to Canadian soils, we created maps showing sensitivity to sulfur and nitrogen pollution. Results show that some ecosystems are at risk from acid and nutrient nitrogen deposition: 10 % of protected areas are receiving acid deposition beyond their damage threshold, and 70 % may be receiving nitrogen deposition that could cause biodiversity loss.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Kenjiro Toyota, Henrik Skov, Jesper Heile Christensen, Alexandru Lupu, Diane Pendlebury, Junhua Zhang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Roberto Sommariva, Peter Effertz, John W. Halfacre, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Theodore K. Koenig, Katrin Müller, Claus Nordstrøm, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Paul B. Shepson, William R. Simpson, Sverre Solberg, Ralf M. Staebler, David W. Tarasick, Roeland Van Malderen, and Mika Vestenius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3750, 2025
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This study showed that the springtime O3 depletion plays a critical role in driving the surface O3 seasonal cycle in Central Arctic. The O3 depletion events, while occurring most notably within the lowest few hundred metres above the Arctic Ocean, can induce a 5–7 % of loss in the pan-Arctic tropospheric O3 burden during springtime. The study also found an enhancement in O3 and NOy (mostly PAN) concentrations in the Arctic due to northern boreal wildfires, particularly at altitudes.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Debora Griffin, Jack Chen, Kerry Anderson, Paul Makar, Chris A. McLinden, Enrico Dammers, and Andre Fogal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10159–10186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10159-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10159-2024, 2024
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Satellite-derived CO emissions provide new insights into the understanding of global CO emission rates from wildfires. We use TROPOMI satellite data to create a global inventory database of wildfire CO emissions. These satellite-derived wildfire emissions are used for the evaluation and improvement of existing fire emission inventories and to examine how the wildfire CO emissions have changed over the past 2 decades.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Stephen R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christophe Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-126, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model set up are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Stefan J. Miller, Paul A. Makar, and Colin J. Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2197–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2197-2024, 2024
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This work outlines a new solver written in Fortran to calculate the partitioning of metastable aerosols at thermodynamic equilibrium based on the forward algorithms of ISORROPIA II. The new code includes numerical improvements that decrease the computational speed (compared to ISORROPIA II) while improving the accuracy of the partitioning solution.
Roya Ghahreman, Wanmin Gong, Paul A. Makar, Alexandru Lupu, Amanda Cole, Kulbir Banwait, Colin Lee, and Ayodeji Akingunola
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 685–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-685-2024, 2024
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The article explores the impact of different representations of below-cloud scavenging on model biases. A new scavenging scheme and precipitation-phase partitioning improve the model's performance, with better SO42- scavenging and wet deposition of NO3- and NH4+.
Victoria A. Flood, Kimberly Strong, Cynthia H. Whaley, Kaley A. Walker, Thomas Blumenstock, James W. Hannigan, Johan Mellqvist, Justus Notholt, Mathias Palm, Amelie N. Röhling, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Makoto Deushi, Srdjan Dobricic, Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Wanmin Gong, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Manu A. Thomas, Svetlana Tsyro, and Steven Turnock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1079–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024, 2024
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It is important to understand the composition of the Arctic atmosphere and how it is changing. Atmospheric models provide simulations that can inform policy. This study examines simulations of CH4, CO, and O3 by 11 models. Model performance is assessed by comparing results matched in space and time to measurements from five high-latitude ground-based infrared spectrometers. This work finds that models generally underpredict the concentrations of these gases in the Arctic troposphere.
Colin J. Lee, Paul A. Makar, and Joana Soares
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-185, 2023
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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Clustering is an analysis technique for finding similarities within datasets. We present a new implementation of the hierarchical clustering algorithm that is able to process much larger datasets than was previously possible, by spreading the program out over many connected computers in a high-performance computing system. We show airshed maps of a high-resolution regional model output domain, and find related air pollution profiles at monitoring stations separated by thousands of kilometers.
Xuanyi Zhang, Mark Gordon, Paul A. Makar, Timothy Jiang, Jonathan Davies, and David Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13647–13664, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13647-2023, 2023
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Measurements of ozone in the atmosphere were made in a forest downwind of oil sands mining and production facilities in northern Alberta. These measurements show that the emissions of other pollutants from oil sands production and processing reduce the amount of ozone in the forest. By using an atmospheric model combined with measurements, we find that the rate at which ozone is absorbed by the forest is lower than typical rates from similar measurements in other forests.
Olivia E. Clifton, Donna Schwede, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Philip Cheung, Mhairi Coyle, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9911–9961, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023, 2023
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A primary sink of air pollutants is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across the models used to simulate atmospheric chemistry. Here, we introduce an effort to examine dry deposition schemes from atmospheric chemistry models. We provide our approach’s rationale, document the schemes, and describe datasets used to drive and evaluate the schemes. We also launch the analysis of results by evaluating against observations and identifying the processes leading to model–model differences.
Shoma Yamanouchi, Stephanie Conway, Kimberly Strong, Orfeo Colebatch, Erik Lutsch, Sébastien Roche, Jeffrey Taylor, Cynthia H. Whaley, and Aldona Wiacek
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3387–3418, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3387-2023, 2023
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Nineteen years of atmospheric composition measurements made at the University of Toronto Atmospheric Observatory (TAO; 43.66° N, 79.40° W; 174 m.a.s.l.) are presented. These are retrieved from Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectra recorded with a spectrometer from May 2002 to December 2020. The retrievals have been optimized for fourteen species: O3, HCl, HF, HNO3, CH4, C2H6, CO, HCN, N2O, C2H2, H2CO, CH3OH, HCOOH, and NH3.
Mark Gordon, Dane Blanchard, Timothy Jiang, Paul A. Makar, Ralf M. Staebler, Julian Aherne, Cris Mihele, and Xuanyi Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7241–7255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7241-2023, 2023
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Measurements of the gas sulfur dioxide (SO2) were made in a forest downwind of oil sands mining and production facilities in northern Alberta. These measurements tell us the rate at which SO2 is absorbed by the forest. The measured rate is much higher than what is currently used by air quality models, which is supported by a previous study in this region. This suggests that SO2 may have a much shorter lifetime in the atmosphere at this location than currently predicted by models.
Timothy Jiang, Mark Gordon, Paul A. Makar, Ralf M. Staebler, and Michael Wheeler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4361–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4361-2023, 2023
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Measurements of submicron aerosols (particles smaller than 1 / 1000 of a millimeter) were made in a forest downwind of oil sands mining and production facilities in northern Alberta. These measurements tell us how quickly aerosols are absorbed by the forest (known as deposition rate) and how the deposition rate depends on the size of the aerosol. The measurements show good agreement with a parameterization developed from a recent study for deposition of aerosols to a similar pine forest.
Shuzhan Ren and Craig A. Stroud
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2023-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2023-37, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The atmospheric boundary layer height is involved in the turbulence parameterization scheme employed in numerical models. It affects the concentration of chemical species by changing the vertical diffusivity and the volume of tracer in the atmosphere. There exists large uncertainties in the boundary layer height. The impacts of the uncertainties on the model simulation of concentration of chemical species are examined. The results show different impacts in different parameterization scheme.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Kathy S. Law, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Henrik Skov, Stephen R. Arnold, Joakim Langner, Jakob Boyd Pernov, Garance Bergeron, Ilann Bourgeois, Jesper H. Christensen, Rong-You Chien, Makoto Deushi, Xinyi Dong, Peter Effertz, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Greg Huey, Ulas Im, Rigel Kivi, Louis Marelle, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeff Peischl, David A. Plummer, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tom Ryerson, Ragnhild Skeie, Sverre Solberg, Manu A. Thomas, Chelsea Thompson, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven T. Turnock, Knut von Salzen, and David W. Tarasick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 637–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-637-2023, 2023
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This study summarizes recent research on ozone in the Arctic, a sensitive and rapidly warming region. We find that the seasonal cycles of near-surface atmospheric ozone are variable depending on whether they are near the coast, inland, or at high altitude. Several global model simulations were evaluated, and we found that because models lack some of the ozone chemistry that is important for the coastal Arctic locations, they do not accurately simulate ozone there.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5775–5828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022, 2022
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Air pollutants, like ozone and soot, play a role in both global warming and air quality. Atmospheric models are often used to provide information to policy makers about current and future conditions under different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in those simulations, in this study we compare simulated air pollution from 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric models to measured air pollution in order to assess how well the models perform.
Mahtab Majdzadeh, Craig A. Stroud, Christopher Sioris, Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Chris McLinden, Xiaoyi Zhao, Michael D. Moran, Ihab Abboud, and Jack Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 219–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-219-2022, 2022
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A new lookup table for aerosol optical properties based on a Mie scattering code was calculated and adopted within an improved version of the photolysis module in the GEM-MACH in-line chemical transport model. The modified version of the photolysis module makes use of online interactive aerosol feedback and applies core-shell parameterizations to the black carbon absorption efficiency based on Bond et al. (2006) to the size bins with black carbon mass fraction of less than 40 %.
Debora Griffin, Chris A. McLinden, Enrico Dammers, Cristen Adams, Chelsea E. Stockwell, Carsten Warneke, Ilann Bourgeois, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Kyle J. Zarzana, Jake P. Rowe, Rainer Volkamer, Christoph Knote, Natalie Kille, Theodore K. Koenig, Christopher F. Lee, Drew Rollins, Pamela S. Rickly, Jack Chen, Lukas Fehr, Adam Bourassa, Doug Degenstein, Katherine Hayden, Cristian Mihele, Sumi N. Wren, John Liggio, Ayodeji Akingunola, and Paul Makar
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7929–7957, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7929-2021, 2021
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Satellite-derived NOx emissions from biomass burning are estimated with TROPOMI observations. Two common emission estimation methods are applied, and sensitivity tests with model output were performed to determine the accuracy of these methods. The effect of smoke aerosols on TROPOMI NO2 columns is estimated and compared to aircraft observations from four different aircraft campaigns measuring biomass burning plumes in 2018 and 2019 in North America.
Stefano Galmarini, Paul Makar, Olivia E. Clifton, Christian Hogrefe, Jesse O. Bash, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Tim Butler, Jason Ducker, Johannes Flemming, Alma Hodzic, Christopher D. Holmes, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Juan Luis Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam Silva, and Ralf Wolke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15663–15697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15663-2021, 2021
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This technical note presents the research protocols for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This initiative has three goals: (i) to define the state of wet and dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to evaluate how dry deposition influences air concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify the causes for prediction differences. The evaluation compares LULC-specific dry deposition and effective conductances and fluxes.
Sepehr Fathi, Mark Gordon, Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Andrea Darlington, John Liggio, Katherine Hayden, and Shao-Meng Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15461–15491, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15461-2021, 2021
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We have investigated the accuracy of aircraft-based mass balance methodologies through computer model simulations of the atmosphere and air quality at a regional high-resolution scale. We have defined new quantitative metrics to reduce emission retrieval uncertainty by evaluating top-down mass balance estimates against the known simulated meteorology and input emissions. We also recommend methodologies and flight strategies for improved retrievals in future aircraft-based studies.
Xinxin Ye, Pargoal Arab, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Georg A. Grell, Bradley Pierce, Aditya Kumar, Paul Makar, Jack Chen, Didier Davignon, Greg R. Carmichael, Gonzalo Ferrada, Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Rajesh Kumar, Louisa Emmons, Farren L. Herron-Thorpe, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Arlindo da Silva, Amber Soja, Emily Gargulinski, Elizabeth Wiggins, Johnathan W. Hair, Marta Fenn, Taylor Shingler, Shobha Kondragunta, Alexei Lyapustin, Yujie Wang, Brent Holben, David M. Giles, and Pablo E. Saide
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14427–14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14427-2021, 2021
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Wildfire smoke has crucial impacts on air quality, while uncertainties in the numerical forecasts remain significant. We present an evaluation of 12 real-time forecasting systems. Comparison of predicted smoke emissions suggests a large spread in magnitudes, with temporal patterns deviating from satellite detections. The performance for AOD and surface PM2.5 and their discrepancies highlighted the role of accurately represented spatiotemporal emission profiles in improving smoke forecasts.
Ashu Dastoor, Andrei Ryjkov, Gregor Kos, Junhua Zhang, Jane Kirk, Matthew Parsons, and Alexandra Steffen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12783–12807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12783-2021, 2021
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An assessment of mercury levels in air and deposition in the Athabasca oil sands region (AOSR) in Northern Alberta, Canada, was conducted to investigate the contribution of Hg emitted from oil sands activities to the surrounding landscape using a 3D process-based Hg model in 2012–2015. Oil sands Hg emissions are found to be important sources of Hg contamination to the local landscape in proximity to the processing activities, particularly in wintertime.
Paul A. Makar, Craig Stroud, Ayodeji Akingunola, Junhua Zhang, Shuzhan Ren, Philip Cheung, and Qiong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12291–12316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12291-2021, 2021
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Vehicle pollutant emissions occur in an environment where upward transport can be enhanced due to the turbulence created by the vehicles as they move through the atmosphere. An approach for including these turbulence effects in regional air pollution forecast models has been derived from theoretical, observation, and higher-resolution modeling. The enhanced mixing, which occurs in the immediate vicinity of roadways, changes pollutant concentrations on the regional to continental scale.
Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, John T. Walker, Paul A. Makar, Judith A. Perlinger, and Xuemei Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5093–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5093-2021, 2021
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A community dry deposition algorithm for modeling the gaseous dry deposition process in chemistry transport models was extended to include an additional 12 oxidized volatile organic compounds and hydrogen cyanide based on their physicochemical properties and was then evaluated using field flux measurements over a mixed forest. This study provides a useful tool that is needed in chemistry transport models with increasing complexity for simulating an important atmospheric process.
Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Jack Chen, Balbir Pabla, Wanmin Gong, Craig Stroud, Christopher Sioris, Kerry Anderson, Philip Cheung, Junhua Zhang, and Jason Milbrandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10557–10587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10557-2021, 2021
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We have examined the effects of airborne particles on absorption and scattering of incoming sunlight by the particles themselves via cloud formation. We used an advanced, combined high-resolution weather forecast and chemical transport computer model, for western North America, and simulations with and without the connections between particles and weather enabled. Feedbacks improved weather and air pollution forecasts and changed cloud behaviour and forest-fire pollutant amount and height.
Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, Peter L. Langen, Joshua P. French, Rashed Mahmood, Manu A. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Daniel C. Thomas, Cynthia H. Whaley, Zbigniew Klimont, Henrik Skov, and Jørgen Brandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10413–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, 2021
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Future (2015–2050) simulations of the aerosol burdens and their radiative forcing and climate impacts over the Arctic under various emission projections show that although the Arctic aerosol burdens are projected to decrease significantly by 10 to 60 %, regardless of the magnitude of aerosol reductions, surface air temperatures will continue to increase by 1.9–2.6 ℃, while sea-ice extent will continue to decrease, implying reductions of greenhouse gases are necessary to mitigate climate change.
Katherine Hayden, Shao-Meng Li, Paul Makar, John Liggio, Samar G. Moussa, Ayodeji Akingunola, Robert McLaren, Ralf M. Staebler, Andrea Darlington, Jason O'Brien, Junhua Zhang, Mengistu Wolde, and Leiming Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8377–8392, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8377-2021, 2021
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We developed a method using aircraft measurements to determine lifetimes with respect to dry deposition for oxidized sulfur and nitrogen compounds over the boreal forest in Alberta, Canada. Atmospheric lifetimes were significantly shorter than derived from chemical transport models with differences related to modelled dry deposition velocities. The shorter lifetimes suggest models need to reassess dry deposition treatment and predictions of sulfur and nitrogen in the atmosphere and ecosystems.
Vikram Khade, Saroja M. Polavarapu, Michael Neish, Pieter L. Houtekamer, Dylan B. A. Jones, Seung-Jong Baek, Tai-Long He, and Sylvie Gravel
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2525–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2525-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2525-2021, 2021
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A new modeling system has been developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada to ingest observations of carbon monoxide (CO) into a coupled weather and constituent transport model. We show that accounting for the uncertainty in surface flux leads to a better estimate of CO distributions. The benefit of assimilating observations from different simulated networks varies with region. This is the first step towards developing a state and flux estimation system for greenhouse gases.
Debora Griffin, Christopher Sioris, Jack Chen, Nolan Dickson, Andrew Kovachik, Martin de Graaf, Swadhin Nanda, Pepijn Veefkind, Enrico Dammers, Chris A. McLinden, Paul Makar, and Ayodeji Akingunola
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 1427–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1427-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-1427-2020, 2020
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This study looks into validating the aerosol layer height product from the recently launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) for forest fire plume through comparisons with two other satellite products, and interpreting differences due to the individual measurement techniques. These satellite observations are compared to predicted plume heights from Environment and Climate Change's air quality forecast model.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Elisabeth Galarneau, Paul A. Makar, Michael D. Moran, and Junhua Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2911–2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2911-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2911-2020, 2020
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Benzene and polycyclic aromatic compounds are toxic air pollutants and ubiquitous in the environment. Using a chemical transport model, we have determined the net impact of vehicle emissions on ambient concentrations of these species. Traffic emissions were found to be a significant fraction of ambient pollution in the densely populated modelled region of North America. Our simulations demonstrate the air quality benefits that would result from transitioning to a zero-emission vehicle fleet.
Mark W. Shephard, Enrico Dammers, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, Shailesh K. Kharol, Jesse Thompson, Yonatan Gainariu-Matz, Junhua Zhang, Chris A. McLinden, Andrew Kovachik, Michael Moran, Shabtai Bittman, Christopher E. Sioris, Debora Griffin, Matthew J. Alvarado, Chantelle Lonsdale, Verica Savic-Jovcic, and Qiong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2277-2020, 2020
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Presented is a description and survey demonstrating the capabilities of the CrIS ammonia product for monitoring, air quality forecast model evaluation, dry deposition estimates, and emission estimates of an agricultural hotspot.
Roya Ghahreman, Wanmin Gong, Martí Galí, Ann-Lise Norman, Stephen R. Beagley, Ayodeji Akingunola, Qiong Zheng, Alexandru Lupu, Martine Lizotte, Maurice Levasseur, and W. Richard Leaitch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14455–14476, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14455-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14455-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric DMS(g) is a climatically important compound and the main source of biogenic sulfate in the Arctic. Its abundance in the Arctic increases during summer due to greater ice-free sea surface and higher biological activity. In this study, we implemented DMS(g) in a regional air quality forecast model configured for the Arctic. The study showed a significant impact from DMS(g) on sulfate aerosols, particularly in the 50–100 nm size range, in the Arctic marine boundary layer during summer.
Matthew Russell, Amir Hakami, Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Junhua Zhang, Michael D. Moran, and Qiong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4393–4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4393-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4393-2019, 2019
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High-resolution air-quality forecast modeling results are compared for two different grid spacings for the Environment and Climate Change Canada GEM-MACH model. While the higher-resolution simulations have worse formal error scores, we show that the higher-resolution model nevertheless has the ability to better resolve plume maxima and has better performance when the evaluation occurs using new scoring metrics which operate on an equal-representative-area basis.
Cristen Adams, Chris A. McLinden, Mark W. Shephard, Nolan Dickson, Enrico Dammers, Jack Chen, Paul Makar, Karen E. Cady-Pereira, Naomi Tam, Shailesh K. Kharol, Lok N. Lamsal, and Nickolay A. Krotkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2577–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2577-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2577-2019, 2019
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We estimated how much carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen oxides were emitted in the smoke from the Fort McMurray Horse River wildfire using satellite data and air quality models. The fire emitted amounts of carbon monoxide that were similar to anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions for all of Alberta over a full year. We also estimated large amounts of ammonia and nitrogen oxides emitted from the fire. These results can be used to evaluate the performance of air quality forecasting models.
Jonathan P. D. Abbatt, W. Richard Leaitch, Amir A. Aliabadi, Allan K. Bertram, Jean-Pierre Blanchet, Aude Boivin-Rioux, Heiko Bozem, Julia Burkart, Rachel Y. W. Chang, Joannie Charette, Jai P. Chaubey, Robert J. Christensen, Ana Cirisan, Douglas B. Collins, Betty Croft, Joelle Dionne, Greg J. Evans, Christopher G. Fletcher, Martí Galí, Roya Ghahreman, Eric Girard, Wanmin Gong, Michel Gosselin, Margaux Gourdal, Sarah J. Hanna, Hakase Hayashida, Andreas B. Herber, Sareh Hesaraki, Peter Hoor, Lin Huang, Rachel Hussherr, Victoria E. Irish, Setigui A. Keita, John K. Kodros, Franziska Köllner, Felicia Kolonjari, Daniel Kunkel, Luis A. Ladino, Kathy Law, Maurice Levasseur, Quentin Libois, John Liggio, Martine Lizotte, Katrina M. Macdonald, Rashed Mahmood, Randall V. Martin, Ryan H. Mason, Lisa A. Miller, Alexander Moravek, Eric Mortenson, Emma L. Mungall, Jennifer G. Murphy, Maryam Namazi, Ann-Lise Norman, Norman T. O'Neill, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Lynn M. Russell, Johannes Schneider, Hannes Schulz, Sangeeta Sharma, Meng Si, Ralf M. Staebler, Nadja S. Steiner, Jennie L. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Jeremy J. B. Wentzell, Megan D. Willis, Gregory R. Wentworth, Jun-Wei Xu, and Jacqueline D. Yakobi-Hancock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2527–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2527-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2527-2019, 2019
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The Arctic is experiencing considerable environmental change with climate warming, illustrated by the dramatic decrease in sea-ice extent. It is important to understand both the natural and perturbed Arctic systems to gain a better understanding of how they will change in the future. This paper summarizes new insights into the relationships between Arctic aerosol particles and climate, as learned over the past five or so years by a large Canadian research consortium, NETCARE.
Sumi N. Wren, John Liggio, Yuemei Han, Katherine Hayden, Gang Lu, Cris M. Mihele, Richard L. Mittermeier, Craig Stroud, Jeremy J. B. Wentzell, and Jeffrey R. Brook
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16979–17001, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16979-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16979-2018, 2018
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We made measurements from a mobile laboratory across a large urban area and determined fleet-average vehicle emission factors (EFs) for a suite of traffic-related air pollutants. We present the first real-world EFs for isocyanic acid (HNCO) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and insight into their on-road variability. We find that vehicles may represent an important source of these air toxics at an urban scale. This work has implications for understanding population exposure to these species.
Wanmin Gong, Stephen R. Beagley, Sophie Cousineau, Mourad Sassi, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar, Sylvain Ménard, Jacinthe Racine, Junhua Zhang, Jack Chen, Heather Morrison, Sangeeta Sharma, Lin Huang, Pascal Bellavance, Jim Ly, Paul Izdebski, Lynn Lyons, and Richard Holt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16653–16687, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16653-2018, 2018
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The navigability of the Arctic Ocean is increasing with the warming in recent years. Using model simulations at a much finer resolution than previous pan-Arctic studies, the impact of marine shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic is assessed for present (2010) and projected levels in 2030. The study found that shipping emissions have a local-to-regional impact in the Arctic at the current level; the impact will increase significantly in a projected business-as-usual scenario.
Mark Gordon, Paul A. Makar, Ralf M. Staebler, Junhua Zhang, Ayodeji Akingunola, Wanmin Gong, and Shao-Meng Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14695–14714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14695-2018, 2018
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This work uses aircraft-based measurements of smokestack plumes carried out in northern Alberta in 2013. These measurements are used to test equations used to predict how high in the air smokestack plumes rise. It is important to predict plume rise height accurately as it tells us how far downwind pollutants are carried and what air quality can be expected at the surface. We found that the equations that are typically used significantly underestimate the plume rise at this location.
Craig A. Stroud, Paul A. Makar, Junhua Zhang, Michael D. Moran, Ayodeji Akingunola, Shao-Meng Li, Amy Leithead, Katherine Hayden, and May Siu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13531–13545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13531-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13531-2018, 2018
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It is shown that using measurement-derived volatile organic compound (VOC) and organic aerosol (OA) emissions in the GEM-MACH air quality model provides better overall predictions compared to using bottom-up emission inventories. This work was done to better constrain the fugitive organic emissions from the Athabasca oil sands region, which are a challenge to estimate with bottom-up emission approaches. We use observations from the 2013 Joint Oil Sands Monitoring study.
Junhua Zhang, Michael D. Moran, Qiong Zheng, Paul A. Makar, Pegah Baratzadeh, George Marson, Peter Liu, and Shao-Meng Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10459–10481, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10459-2018, 2018
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This paper discusses the development of new synthesized emissions inventories and the generation of air quality model-ready emissions files for the Athabasca Oil Sands Region of Alberta, Canada, using multiple emissions inventories, continuous emissions monitoring data, and inferred emission rates based on aircraft measurements. Novel facility-specific gridded spatial surrogate fields were generated to allocate emissions spatially within each huge mining facility.
Paul A. Makar, Ayodeji Akingunola, Julian Aherne, Amanda S. Cole, Yayne-abeba Aklilu, Junhua Zhang, Isaac Wong, Katherine Hayden, Shao-Meng Li, Jane Kirk, Ken Scott, Michael D. Moran, Alain Robichaud, Hazel Cathcart, Pegah Baratzedah, Balbir Pabla, Philip Cheung, Qiong Zheng, and Dean S. Jeffries
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9897–9927, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9897-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9897-2018, 2018
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Complex computer model output was compared to and fused with observation data, to estimate potential damage due to acidifying precipitation for ecosystems in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Estimated deposition was compared to the maximum no-damage ecosystem capacity for sulfur and/or nitrogen uptake; these critical loads were exceeded, for areas between 10 000 and 330 000 square kilometres, depending on ecosystem type: ecosystem damage will occur at 2013 emission levels.
Ayodeji Akingunola, Paul A. Makar, Junhua Zhang, Andrea Darlington, Shao-Meng Li, Mark Gordon, Michael D. Moran, and Qiong Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8667–8688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8667-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8667-2018, 2018
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We examine the manner in which air-quality models simulate lofting of buoyant plumes of emissions from stacks (plume rise) and the impact of the level of detail in algorithms simulating particles' variation in size (particle size distribution). The most commonly used plume rise algorithm underestimates the height of plumes compared to observations, while a revised algorithm has much better performance. A 12-bin size distribution reduced the forecast 2-bin size distribution bias error by 32 %.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Jian Sun, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Kengo Sudo, Johannes Flemming, Jan Eiof Jonson, Sylvie Gravel, Huisheng Bian, Yanko Davila, Daven K. Henze, Marianne T. Lund, Tom Kucsera, Toshihiko Takemura, and Terry Keating
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, 2018
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We study the distributions of sulfur and nitrogen deposition, which are associated with current environmental issues such as formation of acid rain and ecosystem eutrophication and result in widespread problems such as loss of environmental diversity, harming the crop yield and even food insecurity. According to our study, both the amount and distribution of sulfate and nitrogen deposition have changed significantly in the last decade, particularly in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Joana Soares, Paul Andrew Makar, Yayne Aklilu, and Ayodeji Akingunola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6543–6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6543-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6543-2018, 2018
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Grouping data on the basis of (dis)similarity can be used to assess the efficacy of monitoring networks. The data are cross-compared in terms of temporal variation and magnitude of concentrations, and sites are ranked according to their level of potential redundancy. The methodology can be applied to measurement data, helping to identify sites with different measuring technologies or data flaws, and to model output, generating maps of areas of spatial representativeness of a monitoring site.
Stephanie C. Pugliese, Jennifer G. Murphy, Felix R. Vogel, Michael D. Moran, Junhua Zhang, Qiong Zheng, Craig A. Stroud, Shuzhan Ren, Douglas Worthy, and Gregoire Broquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3387–3401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3387-2018, 2018
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We developed the Southern Ontario CO2 Emissions (SOCE) inventory, which identifies the spatial and temporal distribution (2.5 km and hourly, respectively) of CO2 emissions from seven source sectors. When the SOCE inventory was used with a chemistry transport model, we found strong agreement between modelled and measured mixing ratios. We were able to quantify that natural gas combustion contributes > 80 % of CO2 emissions at nighttime while on-road emissions contribute > 70 % during the day.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Paul A. Makar, Mark W. Shephard, Leiming Zhang, Junhua Zhang, Qiong Zheng, Ayodeji Akingunola, Gregory R. Wentworth, Jennifer G. Murphy, Shailesh K. Kharol, and Karen E. Cady-Pereira
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2011–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2011-2018, 2018
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Using a modified air quality forecasting model, we have found that a significant fraction (> 50 %) of ambient ammonia comes from re-emission from plants and soils in the broader Athabasca Oil Sands region and much of Alberta and Saskatchewan. We also found that about 20 % of ambient ammonia in Alberta and Saskatchewan came from forest fires in the summer of 2013. The addition of these two processes improved modelled ammonia, which was a motivating factor in undertaking this research.
Yuan You, Ralf M. Staebler, Samar G. Moussa, Yushan Su, Tony Munoz, Craig Stroud, Junhua Zhang, and Michael D. Moran
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14119–14143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14119-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14119-2017, 2017
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A novel approach for traffic emission measurements is shown to have the capacity to provide high-time-resolution accurate concentrations of key air pollutants. A top-down method for quantifying real-world emission rates produced vehicular emission factor estimates for carbon monoxide that agreed well with bottom-up values. Significant ammonia and hydrogen cyanide emissions were observed. The main factors modulating the concentrations were turbulent mixing and traffic density.
Yuemei Han, Craig A. Stroud, John Liggio, and Shao-Meng Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13929–13944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13929-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13929-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the acidity effect on the yield and chemical composition of α-pinene secondary organic aerosol based on a series of laboratory experiments performed using a photochemical reaction chamber under high- and low-NOx conditions. We have found that the acidity effect largely depends on NOx level and the inorganic acidity has a significant role to play in determining various organic aerosol chemical properties such as mass yields, oxidation state, and organic nitrate content.
Saroja M. Polavarapu, Michael Neish, Monique Tanguay, Claude Girard, Jean de Grandpré, Kirill Semeniuk, Sylvie Gravel, Shuzhan Ren, Sébastien Roche, Douglas Chan, and Kimberly Strong
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12005–12038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12005-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12005-2016, 2016
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CO2 predictions are used to compute model–data mismatches when estimating surfaces fluxes using atmospheric observations together with an atmospheric transport model. By isolating the component of transport error which is due to uncertain meteorological analyses, it is demonstrated that CO2 can only be defined on large spatial scales. Thus, there is a spatial scale below which we cannot infer fluxes simply due to the fact that meteorological analyes are imperfect.
M. W. Shephard, C. A. McLinden, K. E. Cady-Pereira, M. Luo, S. G. Moussa, A. Leithead, J. Liggio, R. M. Staebler, A. Akingunola, P. Makar, P. Lehr, J. Zhang, D. K. Henze, D. B. Millet, J. O. Bash, L. Zhu, K. C. Wells, S. L. Capps, S. Chaliyakunnel, M. Gordon, K. Hayden, J. R. Brook, M. Wolde, and S.-M. Li
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 5189–5211, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5189-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5189-2015, 2015
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This study provides direct validations of Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite retrieved profiles against coincident aircraft profiles of carbon monoxide, ammonia, methanol, and formic acid, all of which are of interest for air quality. The comparisons are performed over the Canadian oil sands region during an intensive field campaign in support of the Joint Canada-Alberta Implementation Plan for the Oil Sands Monitoring (JOSM). Initial model evaluations are also provided.
L. Huang, S. L. Gong, M. Gordon, J. Liggio, R. Staebler, C. A. Stroud, G. Lu, C. Mihele, J. R. Brook, and C. Q. Jia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12631–12648, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12631-2014, 2014
M. Gordon, A. Vlasenko, R. M. Staebler, C. Stroud, P. A. Makar, J. Liggio, S.-M. Li, and S. Brown
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9087–9097, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9087-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9087-2014, 2014
P. A. Makar, R. Nissen, A. Teakles, J. Zhang, Q. Zheng, M. D. Moran, H. Yau, and C. diCenzo
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1001–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1001-2014, 2014
E. Galarneau, P. A. Makar, Q. Zheng, J. Narayan, J. Zhang, M. D. Moran, M. A. Bari, S. Pathela, A. Chen, and R. Chlumsky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4065–4077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4065-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4065-2014, 2014
C. A. McLinden, V. Fioletov, K. F. Boersma, S. K. Kharol, N. Krotkov, L. Lamsal, P. A. Makar, R. V. Martin, J. P. Veefkind, and K. Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3637–3656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3637-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3637-2014, 2014
J. R. Brook, P. A. Makar, D. M. L. Sills, K. L. Hayden, and R. McLaren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10461–10482, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10461-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10461-2013, 2013
C. R. Lonsdale, R. G. Stevens, C. A. Brock, P. A. Makar, E. M. Knipping, and J. R. Pierce
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11519–11531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11519-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11519-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Accurate space-based NOx emission estimates with the flux divergence approach require fine-scale model information on local oxidation chemistry and profile shapes
Exploring a high-level programming model for the NWP domain using ECMWF microphysics schemes
Quantifying uncertainties in satellite NO2 superobservations for data assimilation and model evaluation
ML-AMPSIT: Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool
Coupling the urban canopy model TEB (SURFEXv9.0) with the radiation model SPARTACUS-Urbanv0.6.1 for more realistic urban radiative exchange calculation
Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0
Simulation of the heat mitigation potential of unsealing measures in cities by parameterizing grass grid pavers for urban microclimate modelling with ENVI-met (V5)
AI-NAOS: an AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme for the chemical weather model GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE
Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data
The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing to FAIRMODE’s MQO
Modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales: model development (IAP-AACM_PAH v1.0) and investigation of health risks in 2013 and 2018 in China
LIMA (v2.0): A full two-moment cloud microphysical scheme for the mesoscale non-hydrostatic model Meso-NH v5-6
SLUCM+BEM (v1.0): a simple parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption in WRF-Urban (v4.3.2)
NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM2.5 chemical components
Source-specific bias correction of US background and anthropogenic ozone modeled in CMAQ
Observational operator for fair model evaluation with ground NO2 measurements
Valid time shifting ensemble Kalman filter (VTS-EnKF) for dust storm forecasting
The third Met Office Unified Model-JULES Regional Atmosphere and Land Configuration, RAL3
An updated parameterization of the unstable atmospheric surface layer in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system
The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators
An updated aerosol simulation in the Community Earth System Model (v2.1.3): dust and marine aerosol emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation
Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization
Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
Development of the MPAS-CMAQ coupled system (V1.0) for multiscale global air quality modeling
UA-ICON with NWP physics package (version: ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Assessment of object-based indices to identify convective organization
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using Spectral Bin Model (SBM): Comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System version 1.0
Impact of Multiple Radar Wind Profilers Data Assimilation on Convective Scale Short-Term Rainfall Forecasts: OSSE Studies over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
NEIVAv1.0: Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi et al. (2011) version 1.0
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
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Normally, the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) is linked to complete dynamic models to create chemical climate models. However, the modular concept of MESSy and the newly developed DWARF component presented here make it possible to create simplified models that contain only one or a few process descriptions. This is very useful for technical optimisation, such as porting to GPUs, and can be used to create less complex models, such as a chemical box model.
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
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An enhanced emission module has been developed for the PALM model system, improving flexibility and scalability of emission source representation across different sectors. A model for parametrized domestic emissions has also been included, for which an idealized model run is conducted for particulate matter (PM10). The results show that, in addition to individual sources and diurnal variations in energy consumption, vertical transport and urban topology play a role in concentration distribution.
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
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As lightning is a brief and localized event, it is not explicitly resolved in atmospheric models. Instead, expert-based auxiliary descriptions are used to assess it. This study explores how AI can improve our understanding of lightning without relying on traditional expert knowledge. We reveal that AI independently identified the key factors known to experts as essential for lightning in the Alps region. This shows how knowledge discovery could be sped up in areas with limited expert knowledge.
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
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The effect of the assumed atmospheric nucleation mechanism on particle number concentrations and size distribution was investigated. Two quite different mechanisms involving sulfuric acid and ammonia or a biogenic organic vapor gave quite similar results which were consistent with measurements at 26 measurement stations across Europe. The number of larger particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei showed little sensitivity to the assumed nucleation mechanism.
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
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In our study, we built upon previous work to investigate the patterns artificial intelligence (AI) learns to detect atmospheric features like tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs). As primary objective, we adopt a method to explain the AI used and investigate the plausibility of learned patterns. We find that plausible patterns are learned for both TCs and ARs. Hence, the chosen method is very useful for gaining confidence in the AI-based detection of atmospheric features.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3512, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line and Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, it is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Felipe Cifuentes, Henk Eskes, Enrico Dammers, Charlotte Bryan, and Folkert Boersma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-621-2025, 2025
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We tested the capability of the flux divergence approach (FDA) to reproduce known NOx emissions using synthetic NO2 satellite column retrievals from high-resolution model simulations. The FDA accurately reproduced NOx emissions when column observations were limited to the boundary layer and when the variability of the NO2 lifetime, the NOx : NO2 ratio, and NO2 profile shapes were correctly modeled. This introduces strong model dependency, reducing the simplicity of the original FDA formulation.
Stefano Ubbiali, Christian Kühnlein, Christoph Schär, Linda Schlemmer, Thomas C. Schulthess, Michael Staneker, and Heini Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 529–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-529-2025, 2025
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We explore a high-level programming model for porting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model codes to graphics processing units (GPUs). We present a Python rewrite with the domain-specific library GT4Py (GridTools for Python) of two renowned cloud microphysics schemes and the associated tangent-linear and adjoint algorithms. We find excellent portability, competitive GPU performance, robust execution on diverse computing architectures, and enhanced code maintainability and user productivity.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Dario Di Santo, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, and Lorenzo Giovannini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 433–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-433-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the Machine Learning-based Automated Multi-method Parameter Sensitivity and Importance analysis Tool (ML-AMPSIT), a computationally efficient tool that uses machine learning algorithms for sensitivity analysis in atmospheric models. It is tested with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model to investigate sea breeze circulation sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 253–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025, 2025
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Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Nils Eingrüber, Alina Domm, Wolfgang Korres, and Karl Schneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-141-2025, 2025
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Climate change adaptation measures like unsealings can reduce urban heat stress. As grass grid pavers have never been parameterized for microclimate model simulations with ENVI-met, a new parameterization was developed based on field measurements. To analyse the cooling potential, scenario analyses were performed for a densely developed area in Cologne. Statistically significant average cooling effects of up to −11.1 K were found for surface temperature and up to −2.9 K for 1 m air temperature.
Xuan Wang, Lei Bi, Hong Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Wei Han, Xueshun Shen, and Xiaoye Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-117-2025, 2025
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The Artificial-Intelligence-based Nonspherical Aerosol Optical Scheme (AI-NAOS) was developed to improve the estimation of the aerosol direct radiation effect and was coupled online with a chemical weather model. The AI-NAOS scheme considers black carbon as fractal aggregates and soil dust as super-spheroids, encapsulated with hygroscopic aerosols. Real-case simulations emphasize the necessity of accurately representing nonspherical and inhomogeneous aerosols in chemical weather models.
Lukas Pfitzenmaier, Pavlos Kollias, Nils Risse, Imke Schirmacher, Bernat Puigdomenech Treserras, and Katia Lamer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 101–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-101-2025, 2025
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The Python tool Orbital-Radar transfers suborbital radar data (ground-based, airborne, and forward-simulated numerical weather prediction model) into synthetic spaceborne cloud profiling radar data, mimicking platform-specific instrument characteristics, e.g. EarthCARE or CloudSat. The tool's novelty lies in simulating characteristic errors and instrument noise. Thus, existing data sets are transferred into synthetic observations and can be used for satellite calibration–validation studies.
Mark Buehner, Jean-Francois Caron, Ervig Lapalme, Alain Caya, Ping Du, Yves Rochon, Sergey Skachko, Maziar Bani Shahabadi, Sylvain Heilliette, Martin Deshaies-Jacques, Weiguang Chang, and Michael Sitwell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1-2025, 2025
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The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software is described. The flexible design of MIDAS enables both deterministic and ensemble prediction applications for the atmosphere and several other Earth system components. It is currently used for all main operational weather prediction systems in Canada and also for sea ice and sea surface temperature analysis. The use of MIDAS for multiple Earth system components will facilitate future research on coupled data assimilation.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3690, 2025
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We assess the relevance and utility indicators developed within FAIRMODE by evaluating 9 CAMS models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and Winter-Summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that e.g. seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators provide valuable insights into model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8885–8907, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8885-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can reproduce PAH distribution well. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change in BaP is lower than that in PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although the Action Plan has been implemented.
Marie Taufour, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Christelle Barthe, Benoît Vié, and Chien Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8773–8798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8773-2024, 2024
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We have developed a complete two-moment version of the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) microphysics scheme. We have focused on collection processes, where the hydrometeor number transfer is often estimated in proportion to the mass transfer. The impact of these parameterizations on a convective system and the prospects for more realistic estimates of secondary parameters (reflectivity, hydrometeor size) are shown in a first test on an idealized case.
Yuya Takane, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Ko Nakajima, and Hiroyuki Kusaka
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8639–8664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8639-2024, 2024
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A new parameterisation for dynamic anthropogenic heat and electricity consumption is described. The model reproduced the temporal variation in and spatial distributions of electricity consumption and temperature well in summer and winter. The partial air conditioning was the most critical factor, significantly affecting the value of anthropogenic heat emission.
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8495–8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8495-2024, 2024
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To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of particulate matter <2.5 µm chemical components, we developed the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v2.0 for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has better computing efficiency, excels when used with a small ensemble size, and can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.
T. Nash Skipper, Christian Hogrefe, Barron H. Henderson, Rohit Mathur, Kristen M. Foley, and Armistead G. Russell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8373–8397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8373-2024, 2024
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Chemical transport model simulations are combined with ozone observations to estimate the bias in ozone attributable to US anthropogenic sources and individual sources of US background ozone: natural sources, non-US anthropogenic sources, and stratospheric ozone. Results indicate a positive bias correlated with US anthropogenic emissions during summer in the eastern US and a negative bias correlated with stratospheric ozone during spring.
Li Fang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Ke Li, Ji Xia, Wei Han, Baojie Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Lei Zhu, Song Liu, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8267–8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8267-2024, 2024
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Model evaluations against ground observations are usually unfair. The former simulates mean status over coarse grids and the latter the surrounding atmosphere. To solve this, we proposed the new land-use-based representative (LUBR) operator that considers intra-grid variance. The LUBR operator is validated to provide insights that align with satellite measurements. The results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale urban–rural differences when comparing models and observation.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Arjo Segers, Huiya Jiang, Wei Han, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Ji Xia, Li Fang, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8223–8242, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8223-2024, 2024
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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) improves dust storm forecasts but faces challenges with position errors. The valid time shifting EnKF (VTS-EnKF) addresses this by adjusting for position errors, enhancing accuracy in forecasting dust storms, as proven in tests on 2021 events, even with smaller ensembles and time intervals.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre and sub-km scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Prabhakar Namdev, Maithili Sharan, Piyush Srivastava, and Saroj Kanta Mishra
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8093–8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8093-2024, 2024
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Inadequate representation of surface–atmosphere interaction processes is a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models. Here, an effort has been made to improve the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.2 by introducing a unique theoretical framework under convective conditions. In addition, to enhance the potential applicability of the WRF modeling system, various commonly used similarity functions under convective conditions have also been installed.
Andrew Gettelman, Richard Forbes, Roger Marchand, Chih-Chieh Chen, and Mark Fielding
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8069–8092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8069-2024, 2024
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Supercooled liquid clouds (liquid clouds colder than 0°C) are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We compare a single-column version of a weather model to observations with two different cloud schemes and find that both the dynamical environment and atmospheric aerosols are important for reproducing observations.
Yujuan Wang, Peng Zhang, Jie Li, Yaman Liu, Yanxu Zhang, Jiawei Li, and Zhiwei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7995–8021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024, 2024
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This study updates the CESM's aerosol schemes, focusing on dust, marine aerosol emissions, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) . Dust emission modifications make deflation areas more continuous, improving results in North America and the sub-Arctic. Humidity correction to sea-salt emissions has a minor effect. Introducing marine organic aerosol emissions, coupled with ocean biogeochemical processes, and adding aqueous reactions for SOA formation advance the CESM's aerosol modelling results.
Lucas A. McMichael, Michael J. Schmidt, Robert Wood, Peter N. Blossey, and Lekha Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7867–7888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7867-2024, 2024
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a climate intervention technique to potentially cool the climate. Climate models used to gauge regional climate impacts associated with MCB often assume large areas of the ocean are uniformly perturbed. However, a more realistic representation of MCB application would require information about how an injected particle plume spreads. This work aims to develop such a plume-spreading model.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
David C. Wong, Jeff Willison, Jonathan E. Pleim, Golam Sarwar, James Beidler, Russ Bullock, Jerold A. Herwehe, Rob Gilliam, Daiwen Kang, Christian Hogrefe, George Pouliot, and Hosein Foroutan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7855–7866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7855-2024, 2024
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This work describe how we linked the meteorological Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) air quality model to form a coupled modelling system. This could be used to study air quality or climate and air quality interaction at a global scale. This new model scales well in high-performance computing environments and performs well with respect to ground surface networks in terms of ozone and PM2.5.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique Adnan Siddiqui, Claudia Christine Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with upper atmosphere extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). The parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations were optimized, and realistic modelling of the thermal and dynamic state of the mesopause regions was achieved. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Giulio Mandorli and Claudia J. Stubenrauch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7795–7813, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7795-2024, 2024
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In recent years, several studies focused their attention on the disposition of convection. Lots of methods, called indices, have been developed to quantify the amount of convection clustering. These indices are evaluated in this study by defining criteria that must be satisfied and then evaluating the indices against these standards. None of the indices meet all criteria, with some only partially meeting them.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and Gyuwon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-179, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis such as the spectral bin model (SBM) recently has been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM have relatively higher accuracy about snow and wetsnow events whereas lower accuracy about rain event. When microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, accuracy about rain events was improved.
Kerry Anderson, Jack Chen, Peter Englefield, Debora Griffin, Paul A. Makar, and Dan Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7713–7749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7713-2024, 2024
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The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that predicts smoke and carbon emissions from wildland fires. The model calculates emissions from the ground up based on satellite-detected fires, modelled weather and fire characteristics. Unlike other global models, GFFEPS uses daily weather conditions to capture changing burning conditions on a day-to-day basis. GFFEPS produced lower carbon emissions due to the changing weather not captured by the other models.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-194, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Samiha Binte Shahid, Forrest G. Lacey, Christine Wiedinmyer, Robert J. Yokelson, and Kelley C. Barsanti
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7679–7711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7679-2024, 2024
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The Next-generation Emissions InVentory expansion of Akagi (NEIVA) v.1.0 is a comprehensive biomass burning emissions database that allows integration of new data and flexible querying. Data are stored in connected datasets, including recommended averages of ~1500 constituents for 14 globally relevant fire types. Individual compounds were mapped to common model species to allow better attribution of emissions in modeling studies that predict the effects of fires on air quality and climate.
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Short summary
We present a new, high-resolution, North American model of PAHs and benzene, which are toxic air pollutants that cause a variety of negative health impacts. Our simulation in a densely populated region of Canada and the U.S. shows that the model is improved over a previous model. The new model is particularly refined regarding the gas–particle partitioning of these pollutants, which has impacts on deposition and inhalation. The simulation was sensitive to the selection of vehicle emissions.
We present a new, high-resolution, North American model of PAHs and benzene, which are toxic air...
