On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa; Wang, Yong; Meier, Florian; Weidle, Florian; Wittmann, Christoph; Kann, Alexander

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017

Articles | Volume 10, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 10, issue 1

Model evaluation paper

|

03 Jan 2017

Model evaluation paper |

| 03 Jan 2017

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, Florian Meier, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, and Alexander Kann

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Final revised paper (published on 03 Jan 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 17 Aug 2016)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of manuscript', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Sep 2016
- AC1: 'Answer to reviewer', Yong Wang, 12 Sep 2016
RC2: 'comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Sep 2016

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Yong Wang on behalf of the Authors (03 Nov 2016) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (22 Nov 2016) by Astrid Kerkweg

AR by Yong Wang on behalf of the Authors (29 Nov 2016) Manuscript

Short summary

Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.