Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Model evaluation paper
03 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |  | 03 Jan 2017

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, Florian Meier, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, and Alexander Kann


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Yong Wang on behalf of the Authors (03 Nov 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (22 Nov 2016) by Astrid Kerkweg
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.