Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Model evaluation paper
03 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |  | 03 Jan 2017

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, Florian Meier, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, and Alexander Kann

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Cited articles

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Aligo, A. E., Gallus Jr., W. A., and Segal, M.: On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 24, 575–594, 2009.
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Bauer, H. S., Weusthoff, T., Dorninger, M., Wulfmeyer, V., Schwitalla, T., Gorgas, T., Arpagaus, M., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: Predictive skill of a subset of models participating in D-PHASE in the COPS region, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 287–305, 2011.
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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.