Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
Model evaluation paper
 | 
03 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |  | 03 Jan 2017

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, Florian Meier, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, and Alexander Kann

Related authors

Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Distinct evolutions of haze pollution from winter to the following spring over the North China Plain: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies
Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Jianping Guo, Conglan Cheng, and Yong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1669–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Evaluation of Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) precipitation analysis using a dense rain-gauge network in southeastern Austria
Esmail Ghaemi, Ulrich Foelsche, Alexander Kann, and Jürgen Fuchsberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4335-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
A spatial evaluation of high-resolution wind fields from empirical and dynamical modeling in hilly and mountainous terrain
Christoph Schlager, Gottfried Kirchengast, Juergen Fuchsberger, Alexander Kann, and Heimo Truhetz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2855–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2855-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2855-2019, 2019
Short summary
Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF)
Martin Belluš, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, Yong Wang, Simona Taşku, and Martina Tudor
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 63–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-63-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-63-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric sciences
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Improving the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the Community Inversion Framework: a case study with ICON-ART 2024.01
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
Short summary
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Ahijevych, D., Gilleland, E., Brown, B., and Ebert, E.: Application of spatial forecast verification methods to gridded precipitation forecasts, Weather Forecast., 24, 1485–1497, 2009.
Aligo, A. E., Gallus Jr., W. A., and Segal, M.: On the Impact of WRF Model Vertical Grid Resolution on Midwest Summer Rainfall Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 24, 575–594, 2009.
Barthlott, C., Burton, R., Kirshbaum, D., Hanley, K., Richard, R., Chaboreau, J. P., Trentmann, J., Kern, B., Bauer, H.-S., Schwitalla, T., Keil, C., Seity, Y., Gadian, A., Blyth, A. M., Mobbs, S., Flamant, C., and Handwerker, J.: Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: A case-study from COPS, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 118–136, 2011.
Bauer, H. S., Weusthoff, T., Dorninger, M., Wulfmeyer, V., Schwitalla, T., Gorgas, T., Arpagaus, M., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: Predictive skill of a subset of models participating in D-PHASE in the COPS region, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 287–305, 2011.
Bechtold, P., Semane, N., Lopez, P., and Chaboureau, J.-P., Beljaars, A., and Bormann, N.: Breakthrough in forecasting equilibrium and non.equilibrium convection, ECMWF Newsletter, 136, 15–22, 2013.
Download
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.
Share