Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
Model evaluation paper
 | 
03 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |  | 03 Jan 2017

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Yong Wang, Florian Meier, Florian Weidle, Christoph Wittmann, and Alexander Kann

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Latest update: 25 Feb 2024
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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.