Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-35-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
03 Jan 2017
Model evaluation paper |
| 03 Jan 2017
On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble
Theresa Schellander-Gorgas
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Florian Meier
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Florian Weidle
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Christoph Wittmann
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Alexander Kann
Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology
and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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Cited
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The sensitivity of probabilistic convective‐scale forecasts of an extratropical cyclone to atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling E. Gentile et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4225
- Initial Conditions for Convection-Allowing Ensembles over the Conterminous United States C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0401.1
- Impacts of the Initial Perturbation Scale and Magnitude on Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over Eastern China Y. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4172-8
- Sensitivity analysis of singular vectors (SVs) with diverse configurations and application of multiscale SV initial perturbations in convection-permitting ensemble prediction J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108683
- Comparing Partial and Continuously Cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Systems for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Initialization C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0069.1
- Study on the reconstruction of initial and lateral boundary conditions for a convective-allowing ensemble forecast system Y. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106697
- C‐LAEF: Convection‐permitting Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting system C. Wastl et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3986
- Evaluation of WRF-based Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts for an Extreme Rainfall Event in East China during the Mei-yu Season C. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4422-9
- Measuring Displacement Errors with Complex Wavelets S. Buschow https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0180.1
- The Impact of a Stochastically Perturbing Microphysics Scheme on an Idealized Supercell Storm X. Qiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0064.1
- Historical extreme rainfall over the Bangalore city, India, on 14 and 15 August 2017: skill of sub-kilometer forecasts from WRF model V. Rakesh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00794-1
- Towards a Better Design of Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Precipitation Forecasts over Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico Y. Mayor et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090973
- Evaluating Short-Range Forecasts of a 12 km Global Ensemble Prediction System and a 4 km Convection-Permitting Regional Ensemble Prediction System A. Mamgain et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03524-x
- Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean A. Hermoso et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105571
- Toward 1-km Ensemble Forecasts over Large Domains C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1
- Improving initial condition perturbations in a convection‐permitting ensemble prediction system E. Keresturi et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3473
- 27 Years of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0321.1
- Elucidating the causes of errors in 2.2 km Met Office Unified Model simulations of a convective case over the US Great Plains K. Hanley & H. Lean https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4049
- Do Convection-Permitting Ensembles Lead to More Skillful Short-Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts over Tropical East Africa? C. Cafaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0172.1
- Dust impacts on the Indian summer monsoon: chaotic or physical effect? J. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12051-2025
- Pre‐tactical convection prediction for air traffic flow management using LSTM neural network A. Jardines et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2215
- Quantifying driving ensemble influence on operational convection‐permitting ensemble spread A. Gainford et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70125
- Comparing ALADIN-CZ and ALADIN-LAEF Precipitation Forecasts for Hydrological Modelling in the Czech Republic M. Vokoun & M. Hanel https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5368438
- Validation of Mountain Precipitation Forecasts from the Convection-Permitting NCAR Ensemble and Operational Forecast Systems over the Western United States T. Gowan et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0144.1
- An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1 M. Køltzow et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0003.1
- Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean L. Furnari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061545
- Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts with a Variable-Resolution Global Model C. Schwartz https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0452.1
- Simulations of Indian summer monsoon using RegCM: a comparison with ERA and GFDL analysis M. Karadan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03496-7
- The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size for convective‐scale probabilistic forecasts L. Raynaud & F. Bouttier https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3159
- The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1 P. Termonia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-257-2018
- The added value of convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble C. Cafaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The sensitivity of probabilistic convective‐scale forecasts of an extratropical cyclone to atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling E. Gentile et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4225
- Initial Conditions for Convection-Allowing Ensembles over the Conterminous United States C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0401.1
- Impacts of the Initial Perturbation Scale and Magnitude on Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts over Eastern China Y. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4172-8
- Sensitivity analysis of singular vectors (SVs) with diverse configurations and application of multiscale SV initial perturbations in convection-permitting ensemble prediction J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108683
- Comparing Partial and Continuously Cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Systems for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Initialization C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0069.1
- Study on the reconstruction of initial and lateral boundary conditions for a convective-allowing ensemble forecast system Y. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106697
- C‐LAEF: Convection‐permitting Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting system C. Wastl et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3986
- Evaluation of WRF-based Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts for an Extreme Rainfall Event in East China during the Mei-yu Season C. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4422-9
- Measuring Displacement Errors with Complex Wavelets S. Buschow https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0180.1
- The Impact of a Stochastically Perturbing Microphysics Scheme on an Idealized Supercell Storm X. Qiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0064.1
- Historical extreme rainfall over the Bangalore city, India, on 14 and 15 August 2017: skill of sub-kilometer forecasts from WRF model V. Rakesh et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00794-1
- Towards a Better Design of Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Precipitation Forecasts over Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico Y. Mayor et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090973
- Evaluating Short-Range Forecasts of a 12 km Global Ensemble Prediction System and a 4 km Convection-Permitting Regional Ensemble Prediction System A. Mamgain et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03524-x
- Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean A. Hermoso et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105571
- Toward 1-km Ensemble Forecasts over Large Domains C. Schwartz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1
- Improving initial condition perturbations in a convection‐permitting ensemble prediction system E. Keresturi et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3473
- 27 Years of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0321.1
- Elucidating the causes of errors in 2.2 km Met Office Unified Model simulations of a convective case over the US Great Plains K. Hanley & H. Lean https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4049
- Do Convection-Permitting Ensembles Lead to More Skillful Short-Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts over Tropical East Africa? C. Cafaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0172.1
- Dust impacts on the Indian summer monsoon: chaotic or physical effect? J. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12051-2025
- Pre‐tactical convection prediction for air traffic flow management using LSTM neural network A. Jardines et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2215
- Quantifying driving ensemble influence on operational convection‐permitting ensemble spread A. Gainford et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70125
- Comparing ALADIN-CZ and ALADIN-LAEF Precipitation Forecasts for Hydrological Modelling in the Czech Republic M. Vokoun & M. Hanel https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5368438
- Validation of Mountain Precipitation Forecasts from the Convection-Permitting NCAR Ensemble and Operational Forecast Systems over the Western United States T. Gowan et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0144.1
- An NWP Model Intercomparison of Surface Weather Parameters in the European Arctic during the Year of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period Northern Hemisphere 1 M. Køltzow et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0003.1
- Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean L. Furnari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061545
- Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts with a Variable-Resolution Global Model C. Schwartz https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0452.1
- Simulations of Indian summer monsoon using RegCM: a comparison with ERA and GFDL analysis M. Karadan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03496-7
- The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size for convective‐scale probabilistic forecasts L. Raynaud & F. Bouttier https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3159
- The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1 P. Termonia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-257-2018
- The added value of convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble C. Cafaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 Jul 2026
Short summary
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast model for each individual forecast run. This study compares ALADIN-LAEF, a 16-member ensemble with a resolution of 11 km that combines several perturbation methods, with AROME-EPS, which downscales the members of ALADIN-LAEF to 2.5 km resolution. The verification shows that there are benefits of a higher-resolution ensemble, especially for highly localized precipitation and for mountainous terrain.
Ensemble forecasting offers a useful method to simulate the uncertainty of a numerical forecast...
