Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1945-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1945-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
17 May 2017
Model evaluation paper |
| 17 May 2017
A non-linear Granger-causality framework to investigate climate–vegetation dynamics
Christina Papagiannopoulou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Depart. of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Diego G. Miralles
Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Depart. of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Stijn Decubber
Depart. of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Matthias Demuzere
Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Niko E. C. Verhoest
Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Wouter A. Dorigo
Depart. of Geodesy and Geo-Information, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
Willem Waegeman
Depart. of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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Matthias Demuzere, Jonas Kittner, Alberto Martilli, Gerald Mills, Christian Moede, Iain D. Stewart, Jasper van Vliet, and Benjamin Bechtel
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Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3921–3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, 2022
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Robin van der Schalie, Mendy van der Vliet, Clément Albergel, Wouter Dorigo, Piotr Wolski, and Richard de Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3611–3627, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3611-2022, 2022
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Jorn Van de Velde, Matthias Demuzere, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, 2022
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Benjamin Wild, Irene Teubner, Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Matthias Forkel, Robin van der Schalie, Stephen Sitch, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1063–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, 2022
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Jessica Keune, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Diego G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1875–1898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022, 2022
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Stefan Schlaffer, Marco Chini, Wouter Dorigo, and Simon Plank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 841–860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-841-2022, 2022
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Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
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Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Emanuel Dutra, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Margarita Choulga, Shaun Harrigan, Hans Hersbach, Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, María Piles, Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández, Ervin Zsoter, Carlo Buontempo, and Jean-Noël Thépaut
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021
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The creation of ERA5-Land responds to a growing number of applications requiring global land datasets at a resolution higher than traditionally reached. ERA5-Land provides operational, global, and hourly key variables of the water and energy cycles over land surfaces, at 9 km resolution, from 1981 until the present. This work provides evidence of an overall improvement of the water cycle compared to previous reanalyses, whereas the energy cycle variables perform as well as those of ERA5.
Irene E. Teubner, Matthias Forkel, Benjamin Wild, Leander Mösinger, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 18, 3285–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3285-2021, 2021
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Vegetation optical depth (VOD), which contains information on vegetation water content and biomass, has been previously shown to be related to gross primary production (GPP). In this study, we analyzed the impact of adding temperature as model input and investigated if this can reduce the previously observed overestimation of VOD-derived GPP. In addition, we could show that the relationship between VOD and GPP largely holds true along a gradient of dry or wet conditions.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Diego G. Miralles, Rolf H. Reichle, Wouter A. Dorigo, Sebastian Hahn, Justin Sheffield, Lanka Karthikeyan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Robert M. Parinussa, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Jinyang Du, John S. Kimball, Noemi Vergopolan, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 17–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-17-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the largest and most diverse set of surface soil moisture products ever evaluated in a single study. We found pronounced differences in performance among individual products and product groups. Our results provide guidance to choose the most suitable product for a particular application.
Renaud Hostache, Dominik Rains, Kaniska Mallick, Marco Chini, Ramona Pelich, Hans Lievens, Fabrizio Fenicia, Giovanni Corato, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Patrick Matgen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4793–4812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4793-2020, 2020
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Our objective is to investigate how satellite microwave sensors, particularly Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), may help to reduce errors and uncertainties in soil moisture simulations with a large-scale conceptual hydro-meteorological model. We assimilated a long time series of SMOS observations into a hydro-meteorological model and showed that this helps to improve model predictions. This work therefore contributes to the development of faster and more accurate drought prediction tools.
Brecht Martens, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hendrik Wouters, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Diego G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4159–4181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4159-2020, 2020
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Climate reanalyses are widely used in different fields and an in-depth evaluation of the different variables provided by reanalyses is a necessary means to provide feedback on the quality to their users and the operational centres producing these data sets. In this study, we show the improvements of ECMWF's latest climate reanalysis (ERA5) upon its predecessor (ERA-Interim) in partitioning the available energy at the land surface.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
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We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
Angelika Xaver, Luca Zappa, Gerhard Rab, Isabella Pfeil, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Drew Hemment, and Wouter Arnoud Dorigo
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 117–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-117-2020, 2020
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Soil moisture plays a key role in the hydrological cycle and the climate system. Although soil moisture can be observed by the means of satellites, ground observations are still crucial for evaluating and improving these satellite products. In this study, we investigate the performance of a consumer low-cost soil moisture sensor in the lab and in the field. We demonstrate that this sensor can be used for scientific applications, for example to create a dataset valuable for satellite validation.
Jorn Van de Velde, Bernard De Baets, Matthias Demuzere, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-83, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Though climate models have different types of biases in comparison to the observations, most research is focused on adjusting the intensity. Yet, variables like precipitation are also biased in the occurrence: there are too many days with rainfall. We compared four methods for adjusting the occurrence, with the goal of improving flood representation. From this comparison, we concluded that more advanced methods do not necessarily add value, especially in multivariate settings.
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, 2020
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Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Christopher Krich, Jakob Runge, Diego G. Miralles, Mirco Migliavacca, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tarek El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 1033–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, 2020
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Causal inference promises new insight into biosphere–atmosphere interactions using time series only. To understand the behaviour of a specific method on such data, we used artificial and observation-based data. The observed structures are very interpretable and reveal certain ecosystem-specific behaviour, as only a few relevant links remain, in contrast to pure correlation techniques. Thus, causal inference allows to us gain well-constrained insights into processes and interactions.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Leander Moesinger, Wouter Dorigo, Richard de Jeu, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Irene Teubner, and Matthias Forkel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 177–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-177-2020, 2020
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Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is measured by satellites and is related to the density of vegetation and its water content. VOD has a wide range of uses, including drought, wildfire danger, biomass, and carbon stock monitoring. For the past 30 years there have been various VOD data sets derived from space-borne microwave sensors, but biases between them prohibit a combined use. We removed these biases and merged the data to create the global long-term VOD Climate Archive (VODCA).
Jeroen Claessen, Annalisa Molini, Brecht Martens, Matteo Detto, Matthias Demuzere, and Diego G. Miralles
Biogeosciences, 16, 4851–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4851-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4851-2019, 2019
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Bidirectional interactions between vegetation and climate are unraveled over short (monthly) and long (inter-annual) temporal scales. Analyses use a novel causal inference method based on wavelet theory. The performance of climate models at representing these interactions is benchmarked against satellite data. Climate models can reproduce the overall climate controls on vegetation at all temporal scales, while their performance at representing biophysical feedbacks on climate is less adequate.
Paul C. Stoy, Tarek S. El-Madany, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Gentine, Tobias Gerken, Stephen P. Good, Anne Klosterhalfen, Shuguang Liu, Diego G. Miralles, Oscar Perez-Priego, Angela J. Rigden, Todd H. Skaggs, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ray G. Anderson, A. Miriam J. Coenders-Gerrits, Martin Jung, Wouter H. Maes, Ivan Mammarella, Matthias Mauder, Mirco Migliavacca, Jacob A. Nelson, Rafael Poyatos, Markus Reichstein, Russell L. Scott, and Sebastian Wolf
Biogeosciences, 16, 3747–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, 2019
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Key findings are the nearly optimal response of T to atmospheric water vapor pressure deficits across methods and scales. Additionally, the notion that T / ET intermittently approaches 1, which is a basis for many partitioning methods, does not hold for certain methods and ecosystems. To better constrain estimates of E and T from combined ET measurements, we propose a combination of independent measurement techniques to better constrain E and T at the ecosystem scale.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Hendrik Wouters, Irina Y. Petrova, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Adriaan J. Teuling, Vicky Meulenberg, Joseph A. Santanello, and Diego G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2139–2153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2139-2019, 2019
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The free software CLASS4GL (http://class4gl.eu) is designed to investigate the dynamic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with weather balloons. It mines observational data from global radio soundings, satellite and reanalysis data from the last 40 years to constrain and initialize an ABL model and automizes multiple experiments in parallel. CLASS4GL aims at fostering a better understanding of land–atmosphere feedbacks and the drivers of extreme weather.
Alexander Gruber, Tracy Scanlon, Robin van der Schalie, Wolfgang Wagner, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 717–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-717-2019, 2019
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Soil moisture is a key variable in our Earth system. Knowledge of soil moisture and its dynamics across scales is vital for many applications such as the prediction of agricultural yields or irrigation demands, flood and drought monitoring, weather forecasting and climate modelling. To date, the ESA CCI SM products are the only consistent long-term multi-satellite soil moisture data sets available. This paper reviews the evolution of these products and their underlying merging methodology.
Ashley M. Broadbent, Andrew M. Coutts, Kerry A. Nice, Matthias Demuzere, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Nigel J. Tapper, and Hendrik Wouters
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 785–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-785-2019, 2019
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We present a simple model for assessing the cooling impacts of vegetation and water features (green and blue infrastructure) in urban environments. This model is designed to be computationally efficient so that those without technical knowledge or access to high-performance computers can use it. TARGET can be used to model average street-level air temperature at canyon to block scales (e.g. 100 m resolution). The model is carefully designed to provide reliable and accurate cooling estimates.
Felix Zaussinger, Wouter Dorigo, Alexander Gruber, Angelica Tarpanelli, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 897–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, 2019
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About 70 % of global freshwater is consumed by irrigation. Yet, policy-relevant estimates of irrigation water use (IWU) are virtually lacking at regional to global scales. To bridge this gap, we develop a method for quantifying IWU from a combination of state-of-the-art remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture products and apply it over the United States for the period 2013–2016. Overall, our estimates agree well with reference data on irrigated area and irrigation water withdrawals.
Wouter H. Maes, Pierre Gentine, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 925–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-925-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-925-2019, 2019
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Potential evaporation (Ep) is the amount of water an ecosystem would consume if it were not limited by water availability or other stress factors. In this study, we compared several methods to estimate Ep using a global dataset of 107 FLUXNET sites. A simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome consistently outperformed more complex approaches and makes a suitable tool to investigate the impact of water use and demand, drought severity and biome productivity.
Victor Pellet, Filipe Aires, Simon Munier, Diego Fernández Prieto, Gabriel Jordá, Wouter Arnoud Dorigo, Jan Polcher, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 465–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, 2019
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This study is an effort for a better understanding and quantification of the water cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean region, by dealing with satellite products and their uncertainties. The aims of the paper are 3-fold: (1) developing methods with hydrological constraints to integrate all the datasets, (2) giving the full picture of the Mediterranean WC, and (3) building a model-independent database that can evaluate the numerous regional climate models (RCMs) for this region.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Christina Papagiannopoulou, Diego G. Miralles, Matthias Demuzere, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Willem Waegeman
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4139–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4139-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4139-2018, 2018
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Common global land cover and climate classifications are based on vegetation–climatic characteristics derived from observational data, ignoring the interaction between the local climate and biome. Here, we model the interplay between vegetation and local climate by discovering spatial relationships among different locations. The resulting global
hydro-climatic biomescorrespond to regions of coherent climate–vegetation interactions that agree well with traditional global land cover maps.
Carlos Jiménez, Brecht Martens, Diego M. Miralles, Joshua B. Fisher, Hylke E. Beck, and Diego Fernández-Prieto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4513–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4513-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4513-2018, 2018
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Observing the amount of water evaporated in nature is not easy, and we need to combine accurate local measurements with estimates from satellites, more uncertain but covering larger areas. This is the main topic of our paper, in which local observations are compared with global land evaporation estimates, followed by a weighting of the global observations based on this comparison to attempt derive a more accurate evaporation product.
Minh Tu Pham, Hilde Vernieuwe, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1263–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, 2018
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In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Still, the developed model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.
Wouter H. Maes, Pierre Gentine, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-682, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Potential evaporation is a key parameter in numerous models used for assessing water use and drought severity. Yet, multiple incompatible methods have been proposed, thus estimates of potential evaporation remain uncertain. Based on the largest available dataset of FLUXNET data, we identify the best method to calculate potential evaporation globally. A simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome consistently performed best; more complex models did not perform as good.
Luca Ciabatta, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Alexander Gruber, Christoph Reimer, Sebastian Hahn, Christoph Paulik, Wouter Dorigo, Richard Kidd, and Wolfgang Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, 2018
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In this study, rainfall is estimated starting from satellite soil moisture observation on a global scale, using the ESA CCI soil moisture datasets. The new obtained rainfall product has proven to correctly identify rainfall events, showing performance sometimes higher than those obtained by using classical rainfall estimation approaches.
Matthias Forkel, Wouter Dorigo, Gitta Lasslop, Irene Teubner, Emilio Chuvieco, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4443–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, 2017
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Wildfires affect infrastructures, vegetation, and the atmosphere. However, it is unclear how fires should be accurately represented in global vegetation models. We introduce here a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach that allows us to explore sensitivities of burned areas to satellite and climate datasets. Our results suggest combining observations with data-driven and process-oriented fire models to better understand the role of fires in the Earth system.
Dominik Rains, Xujun Han, Hans Lievens, Carsten Montzka, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5929–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5929-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5929-2017, 2017
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We have assimilated 6 years of satellite-observed passive microwave data into a state-of-the-art land surface model to improve surface soil moisture as well as root-zone soil moisture simulations. Long-term assimilation effects/biases are identified, and they are especially dependent on model perturbations, applied to simulate model uncertainty. The implications are put into context of using such assimilation-improved data for classifying extremes within hydrological monitoring systems.
Clément Albergel, Simon Munier, Delphine Jennifer Leroux, Hélène Dewaele, David Fairbairn, Alina Lavinia Barbu, Emiliano Gelati, Wouter Dorigo, Stéphanie Faroux, Catherine Meurey, Patrick Le Moigne, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Francois Mahfouf, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3889–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3889-2017, 2017
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LDAS-Monde, a global land data assimilation system, is applied over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase monitoring accuracy for land surface variables. It is able to ingest information from satellite-derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations to constrain the ISBA land surface model coupled with the CTRIP continental hydrological system. Assimilation of SSM and LAI leads to a better representation of evapotranspiration and gross primary production.
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
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Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
Seyed Hamed Alemohammad, Bin Fang, Alexandra G. Konings, Filipe Aires, Julia K. Green, Jana Kolassa, Diego Miralles, Catherine Prigent, and Pierre Gentine
Biogeosciences, 14, 4101–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4101-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4101-2017, 2017
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Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN) is a statistically based estimate of global surface latent and sensible heat fluxes and gross primary productivity. The retrieval uses six remotely sensed observations as input, including the solar-induced fluorescence. WECANN provides estimates on a 1° × 1° geographic grid and on a monthly time scale and outperforms other global products in capturing the seasonality of the fluxes when compared to eddy covariance tower data.
Matthew F. McCabe, Matthew Rodell, Douglas E. Alsdorf, Diego G. Miralles, Remko Uijlenhoet, Wolfgang Wagner, Arko Lucieer, Rasmus Houborg, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Trenton E. Franz, Jiancheng Shi, Huilin Gao, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3879-2017, 2017
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We examine the opportunities and challenges that technological advances in Earth observation will present to the hydrological community. From advanced space-based sensors to unmanned aerial vehicles and ground-based distributed networks, these emergent systems are set to revolutionize our understanding and interpretation of hydrological and related processes.
Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Martyn Clark, Luis Samaniego, Niko E. C. Verhoest, Tim van Emmerik, Remko Uijlenhoet, Kevin Achieng, Trenton E. Franz, and Ross Woods
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3701–3713, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3701-2017, 2017
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In this synthesis of hydrologic scaling and similarity, we assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modeling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological hypotheses. We call upon the community to develop a focused effort towards a fourth paradigm for hydrology.
Marko Scholze, Michael Buchwitz, Wouter Dorigo, Luis Guanter, and Shaun Quegan
Biogeosciences, 14, 3401–3429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3401-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3401-2017, 2017
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This paper briefly reviews data assimilation techniques in carbon cycle data assimilation and the requirements of data assimilation systems on observations. We provide a non-exhaustive overview of current observations and their uncertainties for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation, focussing on relevant space-based observations.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
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The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, Hans Lievens, Robin van der Schalie, Richard A. M. de Jeu, Diego Fernández-Prieto, Hylke E. Beck, Wouter A. Dorigo, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903–1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017
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Terrestrial evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and reliable data sets of this variable are of major importance. The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM, www.GLEAM.eu) is a set of algorithms which estimates evaporation based on satellite observations. The third version of GLEAM, presented in this study, includes an improved parameterization of different model components. As a result, the accuracy of the GLEAM data sets has been improved upon previous versions.
Markus Enenkel, Christoph Reimer, Wouter Dorigo, Wolfgang Wagner, Isabella Pfeil, Robert Parinussa, and Richard De Jeu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4191–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4191-2016, 2016
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Soil moisture is a crucial variable for a variety of applications, ranging from weather forecasting and agricultural production to the monitoring of floods and droughts. Satellite observations are particularly important in regions where no in situ measurements are available. Our study presents a method to integrate global near-real-time satellite observations from different sensors into one harmonized, daily data set. A first validation shows good results on a global scale.
Hendrik Wouters, Matthias Demuzere, Ulrich Blahak, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bino Maiheu, Johan Camps, Daniël Tielemans, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3027–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016, 2016
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A methodology is presented for translating three-dimensional information of urban areas into land-surface parameters that can be easily employed in atmospheric modelling. As demonstrated with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer, it enables them to represent urban heat islands and their dependency on urban design with a low computational cost. It allows for efficiently incorporating urban information systems (e.g., WUDAPT) into climate change assessment and numerical weather prediction.
Benedikt Gräler, Andrea Petroselli, Salvatore Grimaldi, Bernard De Baets, and Niko Verhoest
Proc. IAHS, 373, 175–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-175-2016, 2016
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Many hydrological studies are devoted to the identification of events that are expected to occur on average within a certain time span. While this topic is well established in the univariate case, recent advances focus on a multivariate characterization of events based on copulas. Following a previous study, we show how the definition of the survival Kendall return period fits into the set of multivariate return periods.
D. Michel, C. Jiménez, D. G. Miralles, M. Jung, M. Hirschi, A. Ershadi, B. Martens, M. F. McCabe, J. B. Fisher, Q. Mu, S. I. Seneviratne, E. F. Wood, and D. Fernández-Prieto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-803-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-803-2016, 2016
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In this study a common reference input data set from satellite and in situ data is used to run four established evapotranspiration (ET) algorithms using sub-daily and daily input on a tower scale as a testbed for a global ET product. The PT-JPL model and GLEAM provide the best performance for satellite and in situ forcing as well as for the different temporal resolutions. PM-MOD and SEBS perform less well: the PM-MOD model generally underestimates, while SEBS generally overestimates ET.
M. F. McCabe, A. Ershadi, C. Jimenez, D. G. Miralles, D. Michel, and E. F. Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 283–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-283-2016, 2016
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In an effort to develop a global terrestrial evaporation product, four models were forced using both a tower and grid-based data set. Comparisons against flux-tower observations from different biome and land cover types show considerable inter-model variability and sensitivity to forcing type. Results suggest that no single model is able to capture expected flux patterns and response. It is suggested that a multi-model ensemble is likely to provide a more stable long-term flux estimate.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
H. Vernieuwe, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2685–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2685-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2685-2015, 2015
M. G. De Kauwe, J. Kala, Y.-S. Lin, A. J. Pitman, B. E. Medlyn, R. A. Duursma, G. Abramowitz, Y.-P. Wang, and D. G. Miralles
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 431–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-431-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-431-2015, 2015
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Stomatal conductance affects the fluxes of carbon, energy and water between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. We test an implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance model within the CABLE land surface model (LSM). The new implementation resulted in a large reduction in the annual fluxes of transpiration across evergreen needleleaf, tundra and C4 grass regions. We conclude that optimisation theory can yield a tractable approach to predicting stomatal conductance in LSMs.
M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5331–5344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5331-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5331-2014, 2014
M. Dessie, N. E. C. Verhoest, V. R. N. Pauwels, T. Admasu, J. Poesen, E. Adgo, J. Deckers, and J. Nyssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5149–5167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5149-2014, 2014
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In this study, topography is considered as a proxy for the variability of most of the catchment characteristics. The model study suggests that classifying the catchments into different runoff production areas based on topography and including the impermeable rocky areas separately in the modeling process mimics the rainfall–runoff process in the Upper Blue Nile basin well and yields a useful result for operational management of water resources in this data-scarce region.
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
C. Szczypta, J.-C. Calvet, F. Maignan, W. Dorigo, F. Baret, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014
M. T. Pham, W. J. Vanhaute, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5167–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5167-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5167-2013, 2013
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3523–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3523-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3523-2013, 2013
H. Wouters, K. De Ridder, M. Demuzere, D. Lauwaet, and N. P. M. van Lipzig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8525–8541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8525-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8525-2013, 2013
J. Minet, N. E. C. Verhoest, S. Lambot, and M. Vanclooster
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-4063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-4063-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1281–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1281-2013, 2013
L. Loosvelt, H. Vernieuwe, V. R. N. Pauwels, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 461–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-461-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-461-2013, 2013
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Climate and Earth system modeling
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Robust handling of extremes in quantile mapping – “Murder your darlings”
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6
Coupling the regional climate model ICON-CLM v2.6.6 to the Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 using OASIS3-MCT v4.0
A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2
An improved representation of aerosol in the ECMWF IFS-COMPO 49R1 through the integration of EQSAM4Climv12 – a first attempt at simulating aerosol acidity
At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)
Impact of ocean vertical-mixing parameterization on Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean properties using the NEMO-SI3 model
Bridging the gap: a new module for human water use in the Community Earth System Model version 2.2.1
A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates
Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0
ICON ComIn – The ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Split-explicit external mode solver in the finite volume sea ice–ocean model FESOM2
Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5
The sea ice component of GC5: coupling SI3 to HadGEM3 using conductive fluxes
CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5
HyPhAICC v1.0: a hybrid physics–AI approach for probability fields advection shown through an application to cloud cover nowcasting
CICERO Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM v1.1.1) – an improved simple climate model with a parameter calibration tool
Development of a plant carbon–nitrogen interface coupling framework in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model (SSiB5/TRIFFID/DayCent-SOM v1.0)
Dynamical Madden–Julian Oscillation forecasts using an ensemble subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast system of the IAP-CAS model
Implementation of a brittle sea ice rheology in an Eulerian, finite-difference, C-grid modeling framework: impact on the simulated deformation of sea ice in the Arctic
HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model
A 3D-Var assimilation scheme for vertical velocity with CMA-MESO v5.0
Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
An urban module coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to improve hydrothermal simulations in urban systems
Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models
Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4
Reduced floating-point precision in regional climate simulations: an ensemble-based statistical verification
TorchClim v1.0: a deep-learning plugin for climate model physics
The very-high resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
ZEMBA v1.0: An energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Architectural Insights and Training Methodology Optimization of Pangu-Weather
Implementing detailed nucleation predictions in the Earth system model EC-Earth3.3.4: sulfuric acid–ammonia nucleation
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC_v1.0)
Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model
Evaluation of CMIP6 model simulations of PM2.5 and its components over China
Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections
Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
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We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
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Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
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Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
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We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
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We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Peter Berg, Thomas Bosshard, Denica Bozhinova, Lars Bärring, Joakim Löw, Carolina Nilsson, Gustav Strandberg, Johan Södling, Johan Thuresson, Renate Wilcke, and Wei Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8173–8179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8173-2024, 2024
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When bias adjusting climate model data using quantile mapping, one needs to prescribe what to do at the tails of the distribution, where a larger data range is likely encountered outside of the calibration period. The end result is highly dependent on the method used. We show that, to avoid discontinuities in the time series, one needs to exclude data in the calibration range to also activate the extrapolation functionality in that time period.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
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We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
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We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Vera Maurer, Stefan Poll, and Irina Fast
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7815–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7815-2024, 2024
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The regional Earth system model GCOAST-AHOI v2.0 that includes the regional climate model ICON-CLM coupled to the ocean model NEMO and the hydrological discharge model HD via the OASIS3-MCT coupler can be a useful tool for conducting long-term regional climate simulations over the EURO-CORDEX domain. The new OASIS3-MCT coupling interface implemented in ICON-CLM makes it more flexible for coupling to an external ocean model and an external hydrological discharge model.
Sandro Vattioni, Rahel Weber, Aryeh Feinberg, Andrea Stenke, John A. Dykema, Beiping Luo, Georgios A. Kelesidis, Christian A. Bruun, Timofei Sukhodolov, Frank N. Keutsch, Thomas Peter, and Gabriel Chiodo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7767–7793, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024, 2024
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We quantified impacts and efficiency of stratospheric solar climate intervention via solid particle injection. Microphysical interactions of solid particles with the sulfur cycle were interactively coupled to the heterogeneous chemistry scheme and the radiative transfer code of an aerosol–chemistry–climate model. Compared to injection of SO2 we only find a stronger cooling efficiency for solid particles when normalizing to the aerosol load but not when normalizing to the injection rate.
Samuel Rémy, Swen Metzger, Vincent Huijnen, Jason E. Williams, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7539–7567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7539-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the development of the future operational cycle 49R1 of the IFS-COMPO system, used for operational forecasts of atmospheric composition in the CAMS project, and focus on the implementation of the thermodynamical model EQSAM4Clim version 12. The implementation of EQSAM4Clim significantly improves the simulated secondary inorganic aerosol surface concentration. The new aerosol and precipitation acidity diagnostics showed good agreement against observational datasets.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Sofia Allende, Anne Marie Treguier, Camille Lique, Clément de Boyer Montégut, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Antoine Barthélemy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7445–7466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7445-2024, 2024
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We study the parameters of the turbulent-kinetic-energy mixed-layer-penetration scheme in the NEMO model with regard to sea-ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean. This evaluation reveals the impact of these parameters on mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity, and ocean stratification. Our findings demonstrate significant impacts on sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration, emphasizing the need for accurately representing ocean mixing to understand Arctic climate dynamics.
Sabin I. Taranu, David M. Lawrence, Yoshihide Wada, Ting Tang, Erik Kluzek, Sam Rabin, Yi Yao, Steven J. De Hertog, Inne Vanderkelen, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7365–7399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7365-2024, 2024
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In this study, we improved a climate model by adding the representation of water use sectors such as domestic, industry, and agriculture. This new feature helps us understand how water is used and supplied in various areas. We tested our model from 1971 to 2010 and found that it accurately identifies areas with water scarcity. By modelling the competition between sectors when water availability is limited, the model helps estimate the intensity and extent of individual sectors' water shortages.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson, Martijn Hermans, Christoph Humborg, and Christian Stranne
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7157–7179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7157-2024, 2024
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Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Proper is studied through model simulations, enabling a first estimate of key CH4 fluxes. A preliminary budget identifies benthic CH4 release as the dominant source and two main sinks: CH4 oxidation in the water (92 % of sinks) and outgassing to the atmosphere (8 % of sinks). This study addresses CH4 emissions from coastal seas and is a first step toward understanding the relative importance of open-water outgassing compared with local coastal hotspots.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) Model Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++ and Python) and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
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In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, and Eun-Soon Im
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6929–6947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6929-2024, 2024
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Irrigated agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP) has a significant impact on the local climate. To better understand this impact, we developed a specialized model specifically for the NCP region. This model allows us to simulate the double-cropping vegetation and the dynamic irrigation practices that are commonly employed in the NCP. This model shows improved performance in capturing the general crop growth, such as crop stages, biomass, crop yield, and vegetation greenness.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
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This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
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We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Rachid El Montassir, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Corentin Lapeyre
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6657–6681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6657-2024, 2024
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This study introduces a novel approach that combines physics and artificial intelligence (AI) for improved cloud cover forecasting. This approach outperforms traditional deep learning (DL) methods in producing realistic and physically consistent results while requiring less training data. This architecture provides a promising solution to overcome the limitations of classical AI methods and contributes to open up new possibilities for combining physical knowledge with deep learning models.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Zheng Xiang, Yongkang Xue, Weidong Guo, Melannie D. Hartman, Ye Liu, and William J. Parton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6437–6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6437-2024, 2024
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A process-based plant carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) interface coupling framework has been developed which mainly focuses on plant resistance and N-limitation effects on photosynthesis, plant respiration, and plant phenology. A dynamic C / N ratio is introduced to represent plant resistance and self-adjustment. The framework has been implemented in a coupled biophysical-ecosystem–biogeochemical model, and testing results show a general improvement in simulating plant properties with this framework.
Yangke Liu, Qing Bao, Bian He, Xiaofei Wu, Jing Yang, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Tao Zhu, Siyuan Zhou, Yao Tang, Ankang Qu, Yalan Fan, Anling Liu, Dandan Chen, Zhaoming Luo, Xing Hu, and Tongwen Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6249–6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6249-2024, 2024
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We give an overview of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics–Chinese Academy of Sciences subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasting system and Madden–Julian Oscillation forecast evaluation of the system. Compared to other S2S models, the IAP-CAS model has its benefits but also biases, i.e., underdispersive ensemble, overestimated amplitude, and faster propagation speed when forecasting MJO. We provide a reason for these biases and prospects for further improvement of this system in the future.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
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A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Joseph P. Hollowed, Christiane Jablonowski, Hunter Y. Brown, Benjamin R. Hillman, Diana L. Bull, and Joseph L. Hart
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5913–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5913-2024, 2024
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Large volcanic eruptions deposit material in the upper atmosphere, which is capable of altering temperature and wind patterns of Earth's atmosphere for subsequent years. This research describes a new method of simulating these effects in an idealized, efficient atmospheric model. A volcanic eruption of sulfur dioxide is described with a simplified set of physical rules, which eventually cools the planetary surface. This model has been designed as a test bed for climate attribution studies.
Hong Li, Yi Yang, Jian Sun, Yuan Jiang, Ruhui Gan, and Qian Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5883–5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5883-2024, 2024
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Vertical atmospheric motions play a vital role in convective-scale precipitation forecasts by connecting atmospheric dynamics with cloud development. A three-dimensional variational vertical velocity assimilation scheme is developed within the high-resolution CMA-MESO model, utilizing the adiabatic Richardson equation as the observation operator. A 10 d continuous run and an individual case study demonstrate improved forecasts, confirming the scheme's effectiveness.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
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We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Yibing Wang, Xianhong Xie, Bowen Zhu, Arken Tursun, Fuxiao Jiang, Yao Liu, Dawei Peng, and Buyun Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5803–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5803-2024, 2024
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Urban expansion intensifies challenges like urban heat and urban dry islands. To address this, we developed an urban module, VIC-urban, in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Tested in Beijing, VIC-urban accurately simulated turbulent heat fluxes, runoff, and land surface temperature. We provide a reliable tool for large-scale simulations considering urban environment and a systematic urban modelling framework within VIC, offering crucial insights for urban planners and designers.
Jeremy Carter, Erick A. Chacón-Montalván, and Amber Leeson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5733–5757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5733-2024, 2024
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Climate models are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts on life on Earth. However, the output is often afflicted with some bias. In this paper, a novel model is developed to predict and correct bias in the output of climate models. The model captures uncertainty in the correction and explicitly models underlying spatial correlation between points. These features are of key importance for climate change impact assessments and resulting decision-making.
Anna Martin, Veronika Gayler, Benedikt Steil, Klaus Klingmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Jos Lelieveld, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5705–5732, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5705-2024, 2024
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The study evaluates the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4 as a replacement for the simplified submodel SURFACE in EMAC. JSBACH mitigates earlier problems of soil dryness, which are critical for vegetation modelling. When analysed using different datasets, the coupled model shows strong correlations of key variables, such as land surface temperature, surface albedo and radiation flux. The versatility of the model increases significantly, while the overall performance does not degrade.
Hugo Banderier, Christian Zeman, David Leutwyler, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Christoph Schär
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5573–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5573-2024, 2024
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We investigate the effects of reduced-precision arithmetic in a state-of-the-art regional climate model by studying the results of 10-year-long simulations. After this time, the results of the reduced precision and the standard implementation are hardly different. This should encourage the use of reduced precision in climate models to exploit the speedup and memory savings it brings. The methodology used in this work can help researchers verify reduced-precision implementations of their model.
David Fuchs, Steven C. Sherwood, Abhnil Prasad, Kirill Trapeznikov, and Jim Gimlett
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5459-2024, 2024
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Machine learning (ML) of unresolved processes offers many new possibilities for improving weather and climate models, but integrating ML into the models has been an engineering challenge, and there are performance issues. We present a new software plugin for this integration, TorchClim, that is scalable and flexible and thereby allows a new level of experimentation with the ML approach. We also provide guidance on ML training and demonstrate a skillful hybrid ML atmosphere model.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10-15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100-km and a 25-km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased in the resolution.
Daniel Francis James Gunning, Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1384, 2024
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth’s orbit. We demonstrate ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth’s climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth’s most recent cold extreme- the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
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Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Hunter York Brown, Benjamin Wagman, Diana Bull, Kara Peterson, Benjamin Hillman, Xiaohong Liu, Ziming Ke, and Lin Lin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5087–5121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024, 2024
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Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to long-lived, microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere which act to cool the Earth's surface by reflecting the Sun's light back to space. We include and test this process in a global climate model, E3SM. E3SM is tested against satellite and balloon observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, showing that with these particles in the model we reasonably recreate Pinatubo and its global effects. We also explore how particle size leads to these effects.
Deifilia Aurora To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1714, 2024
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Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers three-dimensional atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20–30%. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases accessibility of training and working with the model.
Carl Svenhag, Moa K. Sporre, Tinja Olenius, Daniel Yazgi, Sara M. Blichner, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Pontus Roldin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4923-2024, 2024
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Our research shows the importance of modeling new particle formation (NPF) and growth of particles in the atmosphere on a global scale, as they influence the outcomes of clouds and our climate. With the global model EC-Earth3 we show that using a new method for NPF modeling, which includes new detailed processes with NH3 and H2SO4, significantly impacts the number of particles in the air and clouds and changes the radiation balance of the same magnitude as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Kalyn Dorheim, Skylar Gering, Robert Gieseke, Corinne Hartin, Leeya Pressburger, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Dawn L. Woodard, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024
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Hector is an easy-to-use, global climate–carbon cycle model. With its quick run time, Hector can provide climate information from a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this paper, we document Hector’s new features. Hector V3 is capable of reproducing historical observations, and its future temperature projections are consistent with those of more complex models.
Fangxuan Ren, Jintai Lin, Chenghao Xu, Jamiu A. Adeniran, Jingxu Wang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron van Donkelaar, Melanie S. Hammer, Larry W. Horowitz, Steven T. Turnock, Naga Oshima, Jie Zhang, Susanne Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Gary Strand, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager, and Toshihiko Takemura
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4821–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4821-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the performance of 14 CMIP6 ESMs in simulating total PM2.5 and its 5 components over China during 2000–2014. PM2.5 and its components are underestimated in almost all models, except that black carbon (BC) and sulfate are overestimated in two models, respectively. The underestimation is the largest for organic carbon (OC) and the smallest for BC. Models reproduce the observed spatial pattern for OC, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Maria Rosa Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-73, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Observational data and modelling capabilities are expanding in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources to be used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing and handling a large amount of data. This manuscript describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the ‘VISION toolkit’, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Georgia Lazoglou, Theo Economou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, George Zittis, Anna Tzyrkalli, Pantelis Georgiades, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4689–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4689-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the important issue of the drizzle bias effect in regional climate models, described by an over-prediction of the number of rainy days while underestimating associated precipitation amounts. For this purpose, two distinct methodologies are applied and rigorously evaluated. These results are encouraging for using the multivariate machine learning method random forest to increase the accuracy of climate models concerning the projection of the number of wet days.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
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Short summary
Global satellite observations provide a means to unravel the influence of climate on vegetation. Common statistical methods used to study the relationships between climate and vegetation are often too simplistic to capture the complexity of these relationships. Here, we present a novel causality framework that includes data fusion from various databases, time series decomposition, and machine learning techniques. Results highlight the highly non-linear nature of climate–vegetation interactions.
Global satellite observations provide a means to unravel the influence of climate on vegetation....
