Articles | Volume 19, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9077-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-9077-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
24 Sep 2026
Model description paper |
| 24 Sep 2026
| 24 Sep 2026
Three-stream modelling of radiative transfer for the simulation of Black Sea biogeochemistry in a NEMO framework
Loïc Macé
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
MAST-FOCUS research group, Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
current address: Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland
Luc Vandenbulcke
MAST-FOCUS research group, Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Jean-Michel Brankart
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Jean-François Grailet
MAST-FOCUS research group, Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Pierre Brasseur
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Marilaure Grégoire
MAST-FOCUS research group, Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5134, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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Lohenn Fiol, Stephanie Leroux, Pierre Rampal, and Jean-Michel Brankart
The Cryosphere, 20, 4655–4680, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4655-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4655-2026, 2026
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We examine how uncertainty in the initial position of sea ice features (leads, ridges), affects daily-to-weekly winter sea-ice forecasts. Using ensemble simulations with a sea ice–ocean model, we compare two formulations of sea ice mechanics. We show that pack-ice dynamics are highly sensitive to this choice: one formulation strongly amplifies small initial errors, while the other damps them. Our results highlight the need for ensemble forecasts to capture uncertainty and risks in the Arctic.
Jean-Michel Brankart, Damien Héron, Lisa Weiss, Thierry Penduff, and Pierre Brasseur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3237, 2026
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Marilaure Grégoire, Gianpiero Cossarini, Corinne Derval, Elodie Gutknecht, Susan Kay, Julien Lamouroux, Helen Morrison, Coralie Perruche, Annette Samuelsen, Lena Spruch, Anna Teruzzi, Luc Vandenbulcke, Karina Von Schuckmann, and Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu
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Marilaure Grégoire, Luc Vandenbulcke, Séverine Chevalier, Mathurin Choblet, Ilya Drozd, Jean-François Grailet, Evgeny Ivanov, Loïc Macé, Polina Verezemskaya, Haolin Yu, Lauranne Alaerts, Ny Riana Randresihaja, Victor Mangeleer, Guillaume Maertens de Noordhout, Arthur Capet, Catherine Meulders, Anne Mouchet, Guy Munhoven, and Karline Soetaert
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Damien Héron, Thierry Penduff, Jean-Michel Brankart, Pierre Brasseur, Samuel Somot, Robin Waldman, and Romain Pennel
Ocean Sci., 22, 531–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-531-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-531-2026, 2026
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Our study used realistic ocean simulations to determine how much of the Mediterranean’s circulation is due to natural randomness rather than atmospheric forcing. We found that spontaneous ocean variability is strong in several regions and can persist for years or even decades. This randomness influences how well models and observations can capture the Mediterranean’s response to climate change.
Loïc Macé, Luc Vandenbulcke, Jean-Michel Brankart, Pierre Brasseur, and Marilaure Grégoire
Biogeosciences, 22, 3747–3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3747-2025, 2025
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The representation of light propagation in seawater is critical for modelling marine biogeochemistry. We analyse results from a radiative transfer model that accounts for the absorption and scattering of light in the ocean with their respective uncertainties. We compare these results with in situ and remote-sensed data. Our analysis highlights the benefits of accounting for model uncertainties while using advanced representations of light in modelling frameworks.
Lauranne Alaerts, Jonathan Lambrechts, Ny Riana Randresihaja, Luc Vandenbulcke, Olivier Gourgue, Emmanuel Hanert, and Marilaure Grégoire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3125–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, 2025
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We created the first comprehensive, high-resolution, and easily accessible bathymetry dataset for the three main branches of the Danube Delta. By combining four data sources, we obtained a detailed representation of the riverbed, with resolutions ranging from 2 to 100 m. This dataset will support future studies on water and nutrient exchanges between the Danube and the Black Sea and provide insights into the delta's buffer role within the understudied Danube–Black Sea continuum.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
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Preprint archived
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Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Mikhail Popov, Jean-Michel Brankart, Arthur Capet, Emmanuel Cosme, and Pierre Brasseur
Ocean Sci., 20, 155–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-155-2024, 2024
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This study contributes to the development of methods to estimate targeted ocean ecosystem indicators, including their uncertainty, in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service. A simplified approach is introduced to perform a 4D ensemble analysis and forecast, directly targeting selected biogeochemical variables and indicators (phenology, trophic efficiency, downward flux of organic matter). Care is taken to present the methods and discuss the reliability of the solution proposed.
Stephanie Leroux, Jean-Michel Brankart, Aurélie Albert, Laurent Brodeau, Jean-Marc Molines, Quentin Jamet, Julien Le Sommer, Thierry Penduff, and Pierre Brasseur
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The goal of the study is to evaluate the predictability of the ocean circulation
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Estrella Olmedo, Verónica González-Gambau, Antonio Turiel, Cristina González-Haro, Aina García-Espriu, Marilaure Gregoire, Aida Álvera-Azcárate, Luminita Buga, and Marie-Hélène Rio
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present the first dedicated satellite salinity product in the Black Sea. We use the measurements provided by the European Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission. We introduce enhanced algorithms for dealing with the contamination produced by the Radio Frequency Interferences that strongly affect this basin. We also provide a complete quality assessment of the new product and give an estimated accuracy of it.
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Short summary
We present a three-stream radiative transfer model within the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) framework and a use case for the Black Sea. The model is able to simulate in-water irradiance and sea surface reflectance in a wide spectral range. When coupled with an ecosystem model, the simulated irradiances are used to compute water temperature and primary production. A stochastic version of this model is also proposed to inform on uncertainties in the optical properties of seawater.
We present a three-stream radiative transfer model within the NEMO (Nucleus for European...
