Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1157-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1157-2026
Model description paper
 | 
04 Feb 2026
Model description paper |  | 04 Feb 2026

The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics

A. Park Williams, Winslow D. Hansen, Caroline S. Juang, John T. Abatzoglou, Volker C. Radeloff, Bowen Wang, Jazlynn Hall, Jatan Buch, and Gavin D. Madakumbura

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T. and Kolden, C. A.: Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22, 1003–1020, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13019, 2013. 
Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016. 
Abatzoglou, J. T., Battisti, D. S., Williams, A. P., Hansen, W. D., Harvey, B. J., and Kolden, C. A.: Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0, 2021. 
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723, https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705, 1974. 
Anderegg, W. R. L., Chegwidden, O. S., Badgley, G., Trugman, A. T., Cullenward, D., Abatzoglou, J. T., Hicke, J. A., Freeman, J., and Hamman, J. J.: Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests, Ecology Letters, 25, 1510–1520, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14018, 2022. 
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Short summary
The new Western United States Large Forest Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) is a monthly gridded model to simulate forest fires across the western United States in response to vegetation, topographic, anthropogenic, and climate factors. The model is highly skillful, accounting for over 80 % of the observed variability in annual forest-fire area and capturing observed spatial, intra-annual variations, and trends.
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