Modelling stratospheric composition for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: multi-species evaluation of IFS-COMPO Cy49

Chabrillat, Simon; Rémy, Samuel; Errera, Quentin; Huijnen, Vincent; Bingen, Christine; Debosscher, Jonas; Hendrick, François; Metzger, Swen; Mora, Adrien; Minganti, Daniele; Op de beek, Marc; Reisenfeld, Léa; Williams, Jason E.; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes

doi:10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 22

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 22

Model evaluation paper

|

25 Nov 2025

Model evaluation paper |

| 25 Nov 2025

Modelling stratospheric composition for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: multi-species evaluation of IFS-COMPO Cy49

Simon Chabrillat, Samuel Rémy, Quentin Errera, Vincent Huijnen, Christine Bingen, Jonas Debosscher, François Hendrick, Swen Metzger, Adrien Mora, Daniele Minganti, Marc Op de beek, Léa Reisenfeld, Jason E. Williams, Henk Eskes, and Johannes Flemming

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8973-2025-supplement

Data sets

Initial Conditions for stratospheric composition forecasts of polar winter-spring [Dataset] S. Chabrillat and Q. Errera https://doi.org/10.18758/fabatq6o

BASCOE Reanalysis of Aura-MLS, version 3 (BRAM3): daily zonal means [Dataset] Q. Errera and S. Chabrillat https://doi.org/10.18758/8klj122q

Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf

Short summary

We document the forecasts of the composition of the stratosphere by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The model's predictions are compared with satellite measurements over a recent period, during polar ozone depletion events, and after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The system performs well for sulfate aerosols, ozone and several other key gases but not as well for several nitrogen-containing gases. Chemical processes in aerosols and polar clouds should be improved.