The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption

Bilbao, Roberto; Aubry, Thomas J.; Toohey, Matthew; Ortega, Pablo; Lapin, Vladimir; Tourigny, Etienne

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 18

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 18

Model experiment description paper

|

23 Sep 2025

Model experiment description paper |

| 23 Sep 2025

The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption

Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, and Etienne Tourigny

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025-supplement

Data sets

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4553

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-hindcast-noAgung EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4586

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-hindcast-noElChichon EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4588

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppC-hindcast-noPinatubo EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4590

EC-Earth3 DCPP-EVA decadal predictions produced in Bilbao et al. (2025) R. Bilbao https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.9245771b0ade46848dec103940edf415

EC-Earth3 DCPP-EVA_H decadal predictions produced in Bilbao et al. (2025) R. Bilbao https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.0d90ceba71d14c7abed3541d0e8cd13d

EC-Earth3 DCPP-EVA_H_Carn16 decadal predictions produced in Bilbao et al. (2025) R. Bilbao https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.e3cbaffa4c9e471b8efc04387ea3953a

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Reconstructions of the radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and net surface energy flux over 1985–2017 – DEEP-C Version 4.0 C. Liu and R. Allan https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.271

Model code and software

startR: Automatically Retrieve Multidimensional Distributed Data Sets v2.3.1 N. Manubens et al. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.startR

A Set of Common Tools for Seasonal to Decadal Verification v2.0.0 A.-C. Ho et al. https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.s2dv

EC-Earth3 DecadalPred-Volc: Manuscript R. Bilbao https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14990179

Short summary

Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.