Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
Model experiment description paper
 | 
23 Sep 2025
Model experiment description paper |  | 23 Sep 2025

The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption

Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, and Etienne Tourigny

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Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
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