Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption
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- Final revised paper (published on 23 Sep 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 14 Mar 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-609', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Mar 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Roberto Bilbao, 02 Jun 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-609', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 May 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Roberto Bilbao, 02 Jun 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Roberto Bilbao on behalf of the Authors (10 Jul 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Jul 2025) by Tatiana Egorova

AR by Roberto Bilbao on behalf of the Authors (31 Jul 2025)
Manuscript
I don’t see what is new here compared to another paper just published by this group, Bilbao et al. (2024). Is it just by adding one forcing data set, EVA_H? And since Bilbao et al. (2024) used multiple climate models, why does this paper use only one, and how was it chosen? How model-dependent are the results?
Abstracts should not include references.
The abstract has acronyms that are not defined or explained. What is EVA? What is EVA_H? How do they differ? What is BSC? What is CMIP6?
There are English errors in the abstract. Did the native English speaker authors not edit the paper?
“Despite these differences, comparing the predicted anomalies in those variables with observations, we show that either of the forcings considered allows to make skillful predictions after the major volcanic eruptions.” should be “Despite these differences, comparing the predicted anomalies in those variables with observations, we show that either the EVA or EVA_H forcing would allow skillful predictions to be made after major volcanic eruptions.”
I think the last two sentences (after English correction) of the abstract are fundamentally wrong: “Despite these differences, comparing the predicted anomalies in those variables with observations, we show that either the EVA or EVA_H forcing would allow skillful predictions to be made after major volcanic eruptions. Our study thus supports both EVA and EVA_H generated forcings as reasonable choices for predicting the post-volcanic radiative responses.”
How do you define “skillful?” How do you define “reasonable?” The problems, as discussed below, are that these forcing data sets cannot be created just after an eruption. The location of the eruption and the satellite-observed SO2 emissions are not enough. Also, the EVA algorithm is too diffusive, and the paper shows that they do not produce the correct latitudinal distribution for the three eruptions studied. And there is no consideration of ENSO and interactions with volcanic eruptions.
And why would you want to use either of these forcings after a large volcanic eruption, when models now exist to quickly simulate the conversion of the observed SO2 injections into sulfate aerosols, and the transport and radiative forcing from those aerosols? And these can be updated every month incorporating new observations of how the climate and volcanic aerosol cloud are evolving.
The use of EVA is very problematic, because how is it possible to know the latitudinal extent of the stratospheric cloud a priori? The 1982 El Chichón and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions were only 2.2° different in latitude, but their clouds ended up centered 15° apart, due to the winds on the day of the eruption. How can the hemispheric asymmetry be known ahead of time?
In fact, Fig. 2 shows that because of the low latitudinal resolution of the EVAs, the observed hemispheric asymmetry of both 1963 Agung and 1982 El Chichón is not reproduced correctly. This is an additional problem.
Some minor issues:
SO2 needs to be spelled with the 2 as a subscript.
Why is the mass of S used in Table S1 and SO2 in Table S2? This is confusing.
The table headings in Tables S1 and S2 should not have words broken into two lines. This is easy to fix.
El Chichón is spelled with an accent mark on the o, but this is not consistent in the text or in the figures.
Why does Fig. 4 not include observations? Why are the observations relegated to a different section?
There were El Niños after each of the eruptions studied. This would have a huge impact on the short term seasonal and annual forecasts, especially after El Chichón in 1982, when most of the cooling from the volcanic eruption was offset by the warming from the El Niño. How was this taken into account?
What do the “syear” labels on each panel in Figs. 4 and 8 mean?
“Notably” and “most notably” and “Note that” are used throughout the paper. What do these mean? They should be deleted. Every sentence should be noted or it should not be in the paper.
Fig. 6: The parts of the maps that are NOT significant should be hatched, rather than the significant parts. Don’t cover the results you want the reader to see.
Fig. 6: The temperature changes in the panel labels need units. And why do panels f and i only have one digit after the decimal point, while all the other have two?
There should be a figure added with the Northern Hemisphere winter responses after each eruption for the first winter, too, to see if the model can reproduce the observed winter warming over Eurasia.
The Deep-C version 5 dataset is mentioned several times but never explained. What is it?