Articles | Volume 18, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
Model experiment description paper
 | 
23 Sep 2025
Model experiment description paper |  | 23 Sep 2025

The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption

Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, and Etienne Tourigny

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-609', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-609', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Roberto Bilbao on behalf of the Authors (10 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Jul 2025) by Tatiana Egorova
AR by Roberto Bilbao on behalf of the Authors (31 Jul 2025)  Manuscript 
Download
Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
Share