Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-929-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-929-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
01 Feb 2022
Model description paper |
| 01 Feb 2022
| 01 Feb 2022
C-LLAMA 1.0: a traceable model for food, agriculture, and land use
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Naomi E. Vaughan
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Thomas W. Powell
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PY, UK
Andrew Lovett
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Timothy M. Lenton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PY, UK
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Xiyuan Chen and Timothy M. Lenton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2949, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We develop the new TAlkEaSy (Total Alkalinity Earth System) model for exploring Earth’s climate, redox and ocean chemistry over geological time. It is the first forward model coupling carbon, oxygen, nutrients, ocean major ions and carbonate chemistry in one framework. We illustrate the model configuration and test its response to an abrupt carbon dioxide pulse and a longer-term change in tectonic degassing. The model produces reasonable responses.
Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Louise P. Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh M. N. Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew J. Gidden, Laila K. Gohar, Annika Högner, Andrew D. Jones, Jarmo Kikstra, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Zebedee Nicholls, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven K. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Marit Sandstad, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha S. Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Marco Zecchetto, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026
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We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
E. Keith Smith, Carl Folke, Niklas Kitzmann, Manjana Milkoreit, Per Olsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Christina Eder, Niklas Harring, Jobst Heitzig, Alexia Katsanidou, Timothy M. Lenton, Franz Mauelshagen, Kelton Minor, Ilona M. Otto, Armon Rezai, Jürgen Scheffran, Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, Rick van der Ploeg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Achieving climate and sustainability goals requires rapid, large-scale change. We introduce criticality – the likelihood a system is near a social tipping point – and critical agency – the capacity to shape those conditions. Our framework shows how coalitions and policies can trigger desired shifts and avoid harmful ones, linking complex systems theory with evidence to guide policymakers and practitioners.
Fenna Blomsma, Mila K.-C. F. Ong, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1865–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025, 2025
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We investigate the initially successful transition from regional bottle reuse for mineral water to a widespread bottle reuse system in Germany, its subsequent destabilisation, and what this teaches us about tipping dynamics in packaging systems. Our findings demonstrate opportunities to create an enabling environment for change and the role of feedback loops and interventions in accelerating or impeding sustainable transitions.
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom W. R. Powell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025, 2025
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This paper proposes a new framework combining scaling theory with positive tipping points to explain how regenerative agriculture can scale rapidly. Drawing on the TIST programme (The International Small group and Tree planting programme) in East Africa, it shows that enabling conditions – like affordability, accessibility, and social trust – can trigger feedback loops such as social contagion and network effects. However, outcomes remain highly context-specific, requiring tailored approaches for sustained adoption.
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025
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Earth system tipping points pose existential threats requiring urgent action. However, this imperative should neither increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change, and where the impacts will be felt and by whom are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into actions towards a more sustainable future.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025
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We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, 2025
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Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Alongside increases in autocorrelation and variance, these results are consistent with the movement towards a tipping point to an EV-dominated market, highlighting the ability of these signals to work in previously untested social systems.
Mark S. Williamson and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1483–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, 2024
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Climate models have transitioned to a superrotating atmospheric state under a broad range of warm climates. Such a transition would change global weather patterns should it occur. Here we simulate this transition using an idealized climate model and look for any early warnings of the superrotating state before it happens. We find several early warning indicators that we attribute to an oscillating pattern in the windfield fluctuations.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
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Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Stephen P. Hesselbo, Aisha Al-Suwaidi, Sarah J. Baker, Giorgia Ballabio, Claire M. Belcher, Andrew Bond, Ian Boomer, Remco Bos, Christian J. Bjerrum, Kara Bogus, Richard Boyle, James V. Browning, Alan R. Butcher, Daniel J. Condon, Philip Copestake, Stuart Daines, Christopher Dalby, Magret Damaschke, Susana E. Damborenea, Jean-Francois Deconinck, Alexander J. Dickson, Isabel M. Fendley, Calum P. Fox, Angela Fraguas, Joost Frieling, Thomas A. Gibson, Tianchen He, Kat Hickey, Linda A. Hinnov, Teuntje P. Hollaar, Chunju Huang, Alexander J. L. Hudson, Hugh C. Jenkyns, Erdem Idiz, Mengjie Jiang, Wout Krijgsman, Christoph Korte, Melanie J. Leng, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharina Leu, Crispin T. S. Little, Conall MacNiocaill, Miguel O. Manceñido, Tamsin A. Mather, Emanuela Mattioli, Kenneth G. Miller, Robert J. Newton, Kevin N. Page, József Pálfy, Gregory Pieńkowski, Richard J. Porter, Simon W. Poulton, Alberto C. Riccardi, James B. Riding, Ailsa Roper, Micha Ruhl, Ricardo L. Silva, Marisa S. Storm, Guillaume Suan, Dominika Szűcs, Nicolas Thibault, Alfred Uchman, James N. Stanley, Clemens V. Ullmann, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Madeleine L. Vickers, Sonja Wadas, Jessica H. Whiteside, Paul B. Wignall, Thomas Wonik, Weimu Xu, Christian Zeeden, and Ke Zhao
Sci. Dril., 32, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-32-1-2023, 2023
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We present initial results from a 650 m long core of Late Triasssic to Early Jurassic (190–202 Myr) sedimentary strata from the Cheshire Basin, UK, which is shown to be an exceptional record of Earth evolution for the time of break-up of the supercontinent Pangaea. Further work will determine periodic changes in depositional environments caused by solar system dynamics and used to reconstruct orbital history.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
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Short summary
C-LLAMA is a simple model of the global food system operating at a country level from 2013 to 2050. The model begins with projections of diet composition and populations for each country, producing a demand for each food commodity and finally an agricultural land use in each country. The model can be used to explore the sensitivity of agricultural land use to various drivers within the food system at country, regional, and continental spatial aggregations.
C-LLAMA is a simple model of the global food system operating at a country level from 2013 to...
