Articles | Volume 15, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022
Model evaluation paper
 | 
30 Aug 2022
Model evaluation paper |  | 30 Aug 2022

Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)

Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig

Related authors

Modelling root exudation and plant-microbe interactions under CO2 fertilization in a mature forest
Kristian Schufft, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, Lin Yu, Mingkai Jiang, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4286, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Reviews and syntheses: Current perspectives on biosphere research 2025: from poly-crisis to poly-solutions
Friedrich J. Bohn, Giles B. Sioen, Ana Bastos, Yolandi Ernst, Marcin P. Jarzebski, Niak S. Koh, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alvaro G. Gutiérrez, Amanda J. Aceituno, Andra-Ioana Horcea-Milcu, Andrea Marais-Potgieter, Ayyoob Sharifi, Caroline Howe, Cornelia B. Krug, Eduardo E. Acosta, Emmanuel F. Nzunda, Erik Andersson, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Helen Sooväli-Sepping, Ishihara Hiroe, Ivan Palmegiani, Kaera Coetzer, Kirsten Thonike, Krizler Tanalgo, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger, Nicholas O. Oguge, Mi S. Park, Milena Gross, Pablo De La Cruz, Paula R. Prist, Peng Bi, Rivera Diego, Roman Isaac, Rosemary McFarlane, Sinikka J. Paulus, Stefanie Burkhart, Sung-Ching Lee, Susanne Müller, Uchi D. Terhile, Wan-Yu Shih, William K. Smith, Viola Hakkarainen, Virginia Murray, Yuki Yoshida, Yohannes T. Damtew, and Zeenat Niazi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3619, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
A saturating response of photosynthesis to an increasing leaf area index allows selective harvest of trees without affecting forest productivity
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Boukhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
Biogeosciences, 22, 4729–4741, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4729-2025, 2025
Short summary
Land-cover change alters stand structure, species diversity, leaf functional traits, and soil conditions in Cambodian tropical forests
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
Biogeosciences, 22, 4649–4677, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4649-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4649-2025, 2025
Short summary
Advancing Ecohydrological Modelling: Coupling LPJ-GUESS with ParFlow for Integrated Vegetation and Surface-Subsurface Hydrology Simulations
Zitong Jia, Shouzhi Chen, Yongshuo H. Fu, David Martín Belda, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Chongyu Xu, and Jing Tang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4064,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4064, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary

Cited articles

Augustynczik, A. L. D., Hartig, F., Minunno, F., Kahle, H.-P., Diaconu, D., Hanewinkel, M., and Yousefpour, R.: Productivity of Fagus sylvatica under climate change – A Bayesian analysis of risk and uncertainty using the model 3-PG, Forest Ecol. Manag., 401, 192–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.061, 2017. 
Balaman, Ş. Y.: Chapter 5 – Uncertainty Issues in Biomass-Based Production Chains, in: Decision-Making for Biomass-Based Production Chains, edited by: Balaman, Ş. Y., Academic Press, 113–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814278-3.00005-4, 2019. 
Barman, R., Jain, A. K., and Liang, M.: Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 1394–1411, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12474, 2014. 
Batjes, N. H.: ISRIC-WISE global data set of derived soil properties on a 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid (ver. 3.0), 24, https://www.isric.org/sites/default/files/isric_report_2005_08.pdf (last access: 10 December 2020), 2005.​​​​​​​ 
Download
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Share