Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 16
Articles | Volume 15, issue 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 16
Model evaluation paper
 | 
30 Aug 2022
Model evaluation paper |  | 30 Aug 2022

Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)

Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig

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Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
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